I think the main thing relevant to the coup was the Koi pond section. It had 2 distinct messages that I see:

1. Small changes have ripple effects that can change anything. We have already seen small changes, and these can cause ripples that mean nothing in the old timeline is guaranteed, coup included.

2. The fish adjust to his finger. Changes are adjusted to and accommodated: certain events are likely to recur. This has broader implications than just the COup, but with reference to the coup, it indicates that something along similar lines could still happen. This is further supported by the discussion at the end: both Shoju and Kachiko I read as sincerely rejecting the possibility for the moment, but both are aware that it could perhaps be done.

I really like the Koi Pond scene. It shows us what Shoju is thinking so well. When he puts his finger in the pool the first fish bumps into it, the next changes course around it, but then his finger's presence is incorporated and they all move accordingly, but without any real ongoing disruption.

This tells Shoju that he can do something, and even if it has some immediate impact, it will eventually be incorporated as History and everyone will live on. If he draws the clan away from power, all of the other clans will react, but will then live on without even bumping into his plans any further. The same can be said if he kills the Emperor and takes the Chrysanthemum Throne... Eventually it would just be Emperor Shoju. I think Shoju is certainly of the other opinion, that the Scorpion should back out of the spotlight rather than step more into it... but we don't know that there is any omen in play. We know that Kachiko calls him on his "back into the shadows" rhetoric echoing the Soshi and Yogo daimyo's, rather than being entirely his own. If Shoju is considering the implications of some omen Kachiko doesn't know it. She does try to push him on the Strong and Present Scorpion clan "for the good of the empire" and I think if she knew of any stronger selling point she would have used it. I wouldn't think Yogo Junzo or Soshi Shiori would know it either then... It may be his personal secret at this point. They certainly don't tell us.

Without any Omen - Shoju may be considering that the other clans are all fractured and desperate. Every clan is dealing with a certain amount of turmoil, and the Scorpion are an easy target they could ally against. The Scorpion are villains, and even without the Coup the other clans could see reason to ally against them. These alliances may be too strong and may wipe the Scorpion out... The thing about Ogoe is that while he lost his battle, he didn't lose "the war" so to speak. The Scorpion were not further targeted. That needs to be part of the plan here. Lose, but do not become lost... I don't think a Coup is needed, but the Scorpion are certain to throw a large war that isn't on their land and Shoju may die for it... Kachiko may or may not be part of his full plan to lose purposefully, and the plan may still go wrong.

9 hours ago, Kuni Katsuyoshi said:

In the Steven Sullivan novel, it WAS Shoju's own choice the sword simply turned the outcome into something Shoju couldn't get out of.

The way I recall it, Shoju convinced himself of that, then basically realized during the duel with Toturi how badly he misjudged Ambition.

Admittedly, we've had three presidents since...

26 minutes ago, SirEuain said:

The way I recall it, Shoju convinced himself of that, then basically realized during the duel with Toturi how badly he misjudged Ambition.

Admittedly, we've had three presidents since...

And what presidents they've been eh?

You could be correct ,they didn't exactly delineate the moment he lost control of the situation.

1 hour ago, Kuni Katsuyoshi said:

And what presidents they've been eh?

You could be correct ,they didn't exactly delineate the moment he lost control of the situation.

Even then, I believe AEG said the story wasn't fully canon. I know I raised an eyebrow at the notion that Shoju won the duel with Toturi, for instance.

14 minutes ago, SirEuain said:

Even then, I believe AEG said the story wasn't fully canon. I know I raised an eyebrow at the notion that Shoju won the duel with Toturi, for instance.

Eh, I could kinda sorta buy it. The ascetic tactician vs. the Master of deception. And it was Shoju's book so YMMV.

13 hours ago, Eugene Earnshaw said:

I think the main thing relevant to the coup was the Koi pond section. It had 2 distinct messages that I see:

1. Small changes have ripple effects that can change anything. We have already seen small changes, and these can cause ripples that mean nothing in the old timeline is guaranteed, coup included.

2. The fish adjust to his finger. Changes are adjusted to and accommodated: certain events are likely to recur. This has broader implications than just the COup, but with reference to the coup, it indicates that something along similar lines could still happen. This is further supported by the discussion at the end: both Shoju and Kachiko I read as sincerely rejecting the possibility for the moment, but both are aware that it could perhaps be done.

I read the coi pond, why is he thinking so much about omens and changing the future? Why would he care unless he was trying to change the future?

21 hours ago, Kuni Katsuyoshi said:

Eh, I could kinda sorta buy it. The ascetic tactician vs. the Master of deception. And it was Shoju's book so YMMV.

Double Chi vs. guy without it. I love me some Shoju, don't get me wrong, but the guy trained by the Crane (even if in passing) vs. the cripple? It should've gone the other way.

Just now, SirEuain said:

Double Chi vs. guy without it. I love me some Shoju, don't get me wrong, but the guy trained by the Crane (even if in passing) vs. the cripple? It should've gone the other way.

Lotions,potions, and a shadow brand/magic tattoo (that last in the novel, I haven't checked any of his RPG writeups). He wasn't that crippled.

It only went the way it did for dramatic reasons.

Make Shoju the 'tragic hero '.

Give Toturi some more stuff he feels he has to make up for.

1 hour ago, SirEuain said:

Double Chi vs. guy without it. I love me some Shoju, don't get me wrong, but the guy trained by the Crane (even if in passing) vs. the cripple? It should've gone the other way.

idk - in the fiction Shoju was unsure if he could best Toturi. He was certain he could best anyone else. The reason for this is not because Shoju is an amazing warrior or duelist, but because he knows the tells, intentions, and aggravations of his opponents. He could beat Toshimoko because he would get him drunk the night before on too much sake and geisha, and then duel him in the morning while Toshimoko is hung over. He could best Hoturi because he would have Kachiko wink at him when he draws to strike. Toturi was more of a wild card, and in the banter during the duel he uncovers enough distraction to even best Toturi - but ends up distracted himself as well, it was not super effective.

Part of Shoju's character design is the ability to beat anyone by striking at their weaknesses. Given the dirt he can get inside their head and destroy their technique.

ps - he was crippled in his right arm, but he was left handed. His crippling injury only hinders him when he fights right handed, thus it is a false weakness.