Are Arc-Dodgers a NPE? Carolina Krayts Episode 24 Meta of Doom

By Brunas, in X-Wing

Just now, SabineKey said:

May I ask how much flying with Fel you have done?

Been playing since wave 1, flying him off and on in different leagues, along with many other ships.

Not that you need to fly him at all to realize a ship that moves last, stacks tokens, and double repositions has the best of every world.

4 minutes ago, algnc said:

Been playing since wave 1, flying him off and on in different leagues, along with many other ships.

Not that you need to fly him at all to realize a ship that moves last, stacks tokens, and double repositions has the best of every world.

Realizing and making it work are two very different things. From personal experience and seeing Aces like Fel flown well and badly, I have a hard time believing the "takes little skill" rhetoric I've heard for years.

Fel and co are 'counterstrikers'. They move last, and circle around their opponent, avoiding as much damage as possible. Just like in boxing, its a very powerful tactic. It is easier to react to a situation than to predict one.

Too many people are talking up how much skill is required to play Fel effectively. It was never the case that only a few brave and skilled individuals were flying and winning with Palpaces. The scene was saturated with them.

It was a horrible struggle to fly pure jousters vs them. You had to predict accurately (and often, just get lucky), and block, but still have multiple fully modded guns on target, and hope that your opponent didn't get good greens and you only ever got a couple of chances to get the kill. I would argue that it takes considerably more skill to beat aces with jousters than (pure) jousters with aces. Imagine 5 Khirax vs Shuttle, Soontir and Inky. Which player will have to play better to get the win?

I won't argue that they were unbeatable. But if they were trully astonomically hard to fly and would evaporate in an instant at the smallest error, then they would never have enjoyed their immense popularity.

In summary - not always an NPE and took some skill, but made a lot of ships redundant.

Edited by Bonza

Fascinating discussion. I also agree that arc-dodging is not an NPE, but invulnerability can be. Arc dodging is a core mechanic in the game and the one that drew me in in the first place. Jousting is boring. Turrets are boring. Arc dodging is the one thing that makes me feel like I'm dogfighting.

9 hours ago, GreenDragoon said:

To me, X-Wing is, was or should be all about jousting vs arc-dodging. That means I really love Interceptors and Jake, i.e. ships with boost and barrel roll, and swarms, i.e. 5 A-wings, 5 Strikers, 5 TIEs, 7 TIEs, and so on.
Turrets, bombs, alphastrikes, automatic damage, complete dice mods - all that is fine for me as long as it takes a supporting, minor role in the game.
I think the most useful concepts to discuss this are skill floor/skill ceiling and the different forms of defense this game offers: hitpoints, mitigation, regeneration, arcdodging. The idea of an arcdodging ace needs a token stack and low hull, and it has to evade. But the more emphasis on the dodging itself the better for the game. More emphasis on mitigation brings the arcdodger closer to an NPE.

Soontir specifically was close to an NPE, but he never was to me. Because at some point his player will make a mistake, will be blocked, or blank out, and then his 3 hull are not enough. But he was very close to the NPE because of his token stack combined with Palpshuttle. I don't think Soontir by himself was much of a problem, but he was with the old Palp and complete information.
The core problem of that was of course the damage mitigation creep. Same problem for Whisper: 4 dice + focus + evade + Palpatine after you knew the results. However, their skill floor was quite high, and their skill ceiling was high. But Palp brought down (e: the floor for) both (ships).

By now there are several options to fight his token stack, from Turr to HSCP to Teroch to Palob. And then there is of course the red dice+modification creep, so even if Soontir with stealth device gets all 4 evades + his token, he can only do that once per round. Infinite-Procket-Fenn does not care about his stacks. 5Dice-Norra does not care about his stacks. 6Dice-Rey does not care about his stacks. Cruise missiles do not care about his stacks. And that doesn't even include autodamage or bombs.

I think Ace-wing (= damage mitigation creep) can be a problem if their offense and defense don't depend on the position. That's by the way part of the reason why outmaneuver should be a core mechanic, not an upgrade. So if the Ace packs too much of a punch, then it's simply less fun. If the mitigation comes from a crazy amount of tokens and other cards then it's again less fun. But if the offense and defense depend on a good maneuver then it's great! The idea that you can never catch him but if you do then he's done for is very statisfying engaging for both players. Setting dials should be the most important part of the game I want to play. And admittedly, the final phase of Ace-wing managed to reduce the importance of the maneuver.

But the game went into the completely opposite direction, with red dice creep and hitpoint creep and autodamage and bombs and full modifications. As if we saw a very slow and delayed reaction to Soontir/Whisper - making sure that such a thing won't ever happen again. And even worse, while the skill ceiling might be as high (I couldn't tell), the skill floor is lower. So I'm convinced that at the same skill level, the newer lists blow Soontir and other arcdodgers away. Turrets, bombs, autodamage, fully modified 4-6dice attacks. Those things do (usually) not primarily rely on good maneuvers but instead on clever list building. Which in the age of the internet makes it a moot point. (It goes without saying that well chosen maneuvers make them even better. The point here is that you don't have to for a good list)

So what's my point?

FFG messed up the initially awesome ace-wing by providing too much mitigation and lowering the skill floor too much. Maybe arc-dodgers were an NPE, but not because of the arc-dodging, because that relies on good maneuvers and hence can be countered by every list. Which is a great concept for this game!

That's why Jake Farrell is a well designed pilot - he can reposition, but with a cost. Does he token stack or boost+roll? Can he dare to go into range 1 or not?
Soontir is also designed ok, by himself at least - his double repositioning gives him one focus, like Jake. But he has 3 attack, so now the choice to go up close is less important, and he can get double focus, which makes him less vulnerable. Then you slap on autothrusters and suddenly he really likes range 3, which Jake can't afford due to his low attack. And then you slap on stealth device and suddenly these 2 focus are really, really valuable because their worth increases with every green die. That might be too much already, but then you add old Palpatine and now he's edging on that line to the NPE.
Compare it to Fenn now. He gets, in range 1, his 3 green dice + 1 if you are in arc + 1 evade just because. That's 4+1 dice with a focus, and you expect 3.5 evades, like Soontir. But as I said earlier in this post, that's frustrating because he also hits extremely hard! And he get's basically the same defense on range 3. So he is way worse than Soontir because he cares less about positioning but hits harder.

So in my opinion it's really not "the arc-dodger" as a concept that's an NPE. And while Soontir with his 35pts was good, he by himself was not the problem. Old Palp was.

But I think the question is pointless by now. There are too many turrets, bombs, autodamage and ships that don't care about the maneuver around for arc-dodgers to become relevant again.

This. All of this. Couldn't have said it better myself.

1 minute ago, Bonza said:

Fel and co are 'counterstrikers'. They move last, and circle around their opponent, avoiding as much damage as possible. Just like in boxing, its a very powerful tactic. It is easier to react to a situation than to predict one.

Too many people are talking up how much skill is required to play Fel effectively. It was never the case that only a few brave and skilled individuals were flying and winning with Palpaces. The scene was saturated with them.

It was a horrible struggle to fly pure jousters vs them. You had to predict accurately (and often, just get lucky), and block, but still have multiple fully modded guns on target, and hope that your opponent didn't get good greens and you only ever got a couple of chances to get the kill. I would argue that it takes considerably more skill to beat aces with jousters than (pure) jousters with aces. Imagine 5 Khirax vs Shuttle, Soontir and Inky. Which player will have to play better to get the win?

I won't argue that they were unbeatable. But if they were trully astonomically hard to fly and would evaporate in an instant at the smallest error, then they would never have enjoyed their immense popularity.

Not astronomically hard, but requiring more skill than those who label them "easy mode" keep saying.

Can we just stop using NPE as a term? Anything can be an NPE depending which end of it you're on, and idiots like PGS abused into infamy.

5 minutes ago, StriderZessei said:

Can we just stop using NPE as a term? Anything can be an NPE depending which end of it you're on, and idiots like PGS abused into infamy.

NoPE

Arcdodgers wouldnt be so bad for jousters if Autothrusters didnt give free evades at range 3 in arc. You're trying to catch something that can boost+ barrel roll in multiple triangles that are each 5 movement by 5 movement by something like 8 movement.

NPE is always going to be a matter of opinion. There are certain things that will be considered 'NPE's more commonly than others, and I think the textbook one is losing a turn(often repeatedly).

The thing with X-Wing is that its so easy to have a bad time if you are completely outplayed. Since you can be outplayed in so many different ways(flying, dice rolls, list building) it is common for it to happen.

Without some sort of catch up mechanic a game will very often be un-fun for the loser, especially if they lose often. Not much you can do about it here, short of stagnating the game to preserve balance.

Personally it came down entirely to Palpatine pre-nerf. If you have a ship with 3 green dice auto rolls 3 evades every time it is shot and has an evade token... that ship is beyond tanky. Personally I feel that committing to using Palp on a roll prior to knowing the result is all that was needed to bring him in line. It was never the arc dodging that was the NPE but the reliability of his greens with palp.

Edited by Jetfire
13 minutes ago, SabineKey said:

Not astronomically hard, but requiring more skill than those who label them "easy mode" keep saying.

Of course. By no means were they an easy mode list. (I would consider something like Parattani to be an 'easy' list, due to sheer dice mod advantage) But, people also exaggerate their difficulty. By the way people boast of the skill and bravery it took to bring Palp aces to the table you'd think they were bringing Fel alone and triumphing due to nothing but their exceptional piloting.

I haven't seen it stated what the acronym is (maybe I am blind) but, would someone be so kind to tell this ignorant fool what NPE means? Thanks :D

Just now, BlueSquadronPilot said:

I haven't seen it stated what the acronym is (maybe I am blind) but, would someone be so kind to tell this ignorant fool what NPE means? Thanks :D

Negative Play Experience.

I'm wondering if we would ever have had this problem if PWTs weren't a thing. I understand that turrets are meant to counter arc dodgers, but all other turrets in the game have some sort of range donut: TLT, Ion, Blaster, even HLC Dash (as much as I hate him). Flying limited range turrets rewards skilled maneuvering and on the other side of the table they at least allow some form of counterplay. PWTs are different, they can shoot you literally anytime you can shoot them back, and that's just lazy design IMO. Because of that, Autothrusters and Royal Guard TIE were introduced to bring Interceptors back into the game, but those fixes along with Palp started a trend of arc dodgers relying on token stacks to survive instead of actual arc dodging. Along with pre-nerf x7 this then brought in a truckload of anti-ace cards and red dice creep that brings the game into the state it is today. If there ever is a 2.0 I sincerely hope PWTs aren't going to be a thing.

Just started listening to this episode. Just before the 27 minute mark you talk about how hard counter rock paper scissors is bad for the game. Great minds think alike! I did my own spiel on this specific subject in the S&V 'Drinking in the Boiler Room' Dee Response episode we just recorded Friday. Some rock paper scissors is needed for a healthy meta game so it doesn't devolve into pure mathematical efficiency, which would be terrible. Maybe 60/40 as you said.

Also, we should work together on something. If you are willing to publish those wave 11 squad vs squad charts, I can turn that into what we expect the meta to look like once it settles out. (And assuming people don't play scrub lists, just pure play to win strategy.) Once you have the chart filled out, it's just heuristic pruning of 'dead' lists and then some matrix math to predict the steady state solution where all remaining lists have a 50% chance to win. Heck, you can make a similar chart for the wave 4 meta, and I can turn the crank and see how close it reflects what the historical data shows. Fat Han vs Swarm vs Whisper.

P.S. I totally called you Kry-ATs in our latest boiler room episode. Git gud at pronouncing Bob. But now it's stuck and Ricky's going to keep using it. Just send him a really big box of bounties. Seems fair.

3 hours ago, ficklegreendice said:

all the ones that he avoids ;)

not really, though, because the other player can play the game in such a way where it is not possible to avoid firing arcs. Nym, unlike soontir, cannot handle range 3 (or any range really) shots well at all and he simply isn't as maneuverable, so there's definitely something the opposing player can do to hurt him especially since he doesn't have the green dice to luckily shrug off being in a bad position

now he can almost always bomb you (not at long range) but considering his cost it's not really that huge an issue. Given more than one ship, you can easily mitigate the effectiveness of his bombs by simply walling off table-space (something you really gotta do when flying Fenn with two large base scouts). You can definitely outplay a Nym, so it's not really proper to call him NPE unless maybe you skew into a bad matchup with nothing but low health aces, but that's the chance you take whenever you skew

NPE really should be exclusively reserved for when there's nothing a player can do, such as not getting shot at by PWTs while still getting shots of their own (apart from rocks ofc). Lower ps arc-locked ships against Dash also fall into this category

3 hours ago, GreenDragoon said:

In a more abstract way as both deny the other player to play the game. Nym means you get bombed no matter what, and often can't even shoot back.
Maybe @Brunas could weigh in and say that I'm wrong.

That is my question. In a way that sound silly, it doesn't actually matter if chasing soontir is throwing away your agency. It's how it feels. If it feels like you were never playing the game, even though you actually were, that's just as bad from a fun point of view as looking at nym or advanced SLAM bombs and knowing that you aren't playing the game. If that makes sense? Basically, if my playstyle makes it feel like you aren't actively participating in the game, that's probably bad. I'm not convinced that's actually the case with aces, but if that's how it feels then that's probably why FFG has gone so far out of their way to remove the archetype from the game.

2 hours ago, MegaSilver said:

@Brunas

About Palp in Imperial Assault:

You forgot to look at the second part of his auto damage ability. After they take a damage, they gain a +1 damage token, which they can use whenever they attack to add +1 hit to their damage. So you do have to consider who you damage if you use the ability.

Oh interesting. So it's mostly useful against terminal squatters, etc. I think my/our statement is still justified that we'd all be crying that the sky is falling (even more than we already are) if an equivalent were released in xwing. I'll put the inquisitor on a 4 turn clock to let him do more damage to me, if he makes it in time or even gets to shoot...

1 hour ago, Bonza said:

Fel and co are 'counterstrikers'. They move last, and circle around their opponent, avoiding as much damage as possible. Just like in boxing, its a very powerful tactic. It is easier to react to a situation than to predict one.

Too many people are talking up how much skill is required to play Fel effectively. It was never the case that only a few brave and skilled individuals were flying and winning with Palpaces. The scene was saturated with them.

It was a horrible struggle to fly pure jousters vs them. You had to predict accurately (and often, just get lucky), and block, but still have multiple fully modded guns on target, and hope that your opponent didn't get good greens and you only ever got a couple of chances to get the kill. I would argue that it takes considerably more skill to beat aces with jousters than (pure) jousters with aces. Imagine 5 Khirax vs Shuttle, Soontir and Inky. Which player will have to play better to get the win?

I won't argue that they were unbeatable. But if they were trully astonomically hard to fly and would evaporate in an instant at the smallest error, then they would never have enjoyed their immense popularity.

In summary - not always an NPE and took some skill, but made a lot of ships redundant.

This is what I find really interesting. A lot of people feel this way - you had to predict accurately, and block to get shots. But, the higher end of palp aces players didn't make blocking them an option, if that makes sense. Continually disengage until I get can an engagement where both you can't hurt me, and I can't be blocked next turn/turn turn after. This is where we get into the discussion if the opponent is actually playing the game anymore at that point. I assume the answer is yes, because it's a very complicated game and mistakes can happen and arguably it isn't possible in the first place, but that's the line of questioning in the first place.

I think this is why palp defenders had such an immediate and vocal response is it often felt like you weren't actually playing against it - they just jousted you and you had to deal with it (most lists couldn't), with little consequence for counterplay. I'm questioning if palp aces actually had that counterplay, or if bad palp ace players made most players think they had a chance in the matchup.

53 minutes ago, MajorJuggler said:

Just started listening to this episode. Just before the 27 minute mark you talk about how hard counter rock paper scissors is bad for the game. Great minds think alike! I did my own spiel on this specific subject in the S&V 'Drinking in the Boiler Room' Dee Response episode we just recorded Friday. Some rock paper scissors is needed for a healthy meta game so it doesn't devolve into pure mathematical efficiency, which would be terrible. Maybe 60/40 as you said.

Also, we should work together on something. If you are willing to publish those wave 11 squad vs squad charts, I can turn that into what we expect the meta to look like once it settles out. (And assuming people don't play scrub lists, just pure play to win strategy.) Once you have the chart filled out, it's just heuristic pruning of 'dead' lists and then some matrix math to predict the steady state solution where all remaining lists have a 50% chance to win. Heck, you can make a similar chart for the wave 4 meta, and I can turn the crank and see how close it reflects what the historical data shows. Fat Han vs Swarm vs Whisper.

P.S. I totally called you Kry-ATs in our latest boiler room episode. Git gud at pronouncing Bob. But now it's stuck and Ricky's going to keep using it. Just send him a really big box of bounties. Seems fair.

Sure, they're still in construction now (our guesses from before the wave dropped need some editing now that we have real game data). It's not just my effort and people that care more than me about it, so let me double check with them, but worst case we can take my opinion, your opinion, and whoever else is willing to publish it! The interesting thing is these equilibriums assume rational actors with everyone equipped with perfect information, as far as I know. But X-Wing players aren't really rational - I have to worry about how good my list is against a fat Rey, even though I probably shouldn't, just because people like playing things like that. I'm curious how close to the mark we can get, and if our errors will come from people bringing bad lists because they don't care, vs. our matchup interpretations being wrong!

Also cry-ats is hilarious

Edited by Brunas

Soontir isn't an NPE for me because I could block him and he dies. Any list can use that tactic, however, Fenn Rau you have to block every ship in the list for him to not have a token and you gotta do it at Range 2. Not all lists can do that. Oh and he's 3 points cheaper and has an extra Hull.

I found Soontir an NPE for both invulnerability and arc dodging.

You'd spend forever hunting him down, then you wouldn't put damage through. If he was just a good arc dodger (vader) or just a good green token modder (defender), you could either get shots that hurt him once in a while, or throw enough dice in and eventually he'd blank (or block to deny the mods). The fact that he arc dodges so you can't get shots, then when you do, you have to get great results and he has to roll at the edge of the bell curve (and not just either edge, the bottom edge) made it no fun to face him. Heaver had the correct strategy, just kill anything else and hope you have more points at the end of the round. A ship so good you shouldn't even bother to shoot isn't fun for the opponent.

I believe your question of "Are Arc-Dodgers a NPE" is fundamentally flawed, assuming either all arc-dodgers are NPE or not. The answer is that the concept is sound while the execution is lacking.

A lot of the posts here confirm that good arc-dodging takes skill, is easy and punishing to mess up, and has a high learning curve to perfect. Theses are all GOOD things... HOWEVER, things like the old Palp+Aces where you would stack evades+autothrusters+Palp allow you to "cheat" a lot of those things that are good for the game and create a scenario where an arc-dodger no longer needs to dodge arc, becoming an unkillable tank.

Keeping people in arc and staying out of arc is what this game is about. Arc-dodgers are the epitome of this, in theory giving you the greatest rewards and tools for success but also the greatest punishment for failure.

Palp already got a nerf. Now it's time for invulnerability in general, turrets, AND autothrusters to be put into check. I really liked Fickle's idea of making Outmaneuver a base rule in the game, as it would deal with almost every issue we have. It would reward good flying, make turrets care about arc, give a counter to insane tanks, and allow even generics with low mods a chance at hitting someone like Soontir Fel should he be careless. Autothrusters can be changed from turning a blank into an evade to giving an extra green die in the same scenario. This would roughly be about half as powerful, much more vulnerable to focus fire, and MUCH less reliable. If this leaves arc-dodgers too weak, there can also be a baseline rule where anyone attacking out of arc gives the defender an extra green die. Both of those together would roughly equal the power of autothrusters vs turrets now.

Edited by f0rbiddenc00kie
2 minutes ago, f0rbiddenc00kie said:

Palp already got a nerf. Now it's time for invulnerability in general, turrets, AND autothrusters to be put into check.

This is what I thought initially as well, but frankly we're progressing in the other direction. The average power level of ships is trending up, not down, and it doesn't look like there will be any slowing down. Which lead me to wondering why they've got so far out of their way to remove arc-dodgers from the game.

For example, let's assume the silencer is coming and it's an arc-dodger. What would the stats have to be for you to be even willing to play it in the world of scum nym? Like 3/3/3/3 with a natural pilot skill of 11 OR 9 with built in push, ala Vader? He's the only arc dodger that remains, and at this point he's arguably just a cruise missile with a tie advanced stapled to the side.

17 minutes ago, Brunas said:

Sure, they're still in construction now (our guesses from before the wave dropped need some editing now that we have real game data). It's not just my effort and people that care more than me about it, so let me double check with them, but worst case we can take my opinion, your opinion, and whoever else is willing to publish it! The interesting thing is these equilibriums assume rational actors with everyone equipped with perfect information, as far as I know. But X-Wing players aren't really rational - I have to worry about how good my list is against a fat Rey, even though I probably shouldn't, just because people like playing things like that. I'm curious how close to the mark we can get, and if our errors will come from people bringing bad lists because they don't care, vs. our matchup interpretations being wrong!

To be fair, Rey & Co. should be included in the analysis. Unless some other squad is better than it in every single matchup across the board, it should still see some play. How much will depend on how good it performs in its matchups, and what's good in the meta vs what it preys on. An example of a squad that is mathematically "dominated" by another list would be the 7 TIE Swarm being replaced by the 6 TIE Crackswarm, the Crackswarm should be flat-out better in every matchup. The problem is, that as you include more squads to compare, it becomes a ton of matchups to evaluate.

2 minutes ago, Brunas said:

This is what I thought initially as well, but frankly we're progressing in the other direction. The average power level of ships is trending up, not down, and it doesn't look like there will be any slowing down. Which lead me to wondering why they've got so far out of their way to remove arc-dodgers from the game.

I know exactly what you mean about power levels rising. HOWEVER, that trend can only continue for so long before things get out of hand. This has already happened with the "Great Nerfening" in this game (Palp/Zuckuss/Manaroo), where FFG's hand is forced to change cards for the sake of balance in the Force... and the game.

"Make everything overpowered" is a concept I've seen before in other games, and it doesn't work out well. The more overpowered you make everything, the more swingy games get and the less likely that there will be a chance for adequate counterplay.

I said that somewhere on the forums before, but my personal grudge with arc dodgers (Soontir wasn't even the greatest offender for me- the #1 spot goes to the inquisitor) is the fact that the ability to completely avoid getting fired at is intertwined with damage mitigation. This is why I really like the TIE Striker, for example- It's very slippery, but if you do manage to catch it you're usually rewarded by being able to deal at least some damage to it.

As far as turrets are concerned, I'm in the "change 360s into mobile firing arc in X-Wing 2.0, maybe even without the primary arc" camp. :)

Edited by Elavion
12 minutes ago, Elavion said:

I said that somewhere on the forums before, but my personal grudge with arc dodgers (Soontir wasn't even the greatest offender for me- the #1 spot goes to the inquisitor) is the fact that the ability to completely avoid getting fired at is intertwined with damage mitigation. This is why I really like the TIE Striker, for example- It's very slippery, but if you do manage to catch it you're usually rewarded by being able to deal at least some damage to it.

As far as turrets are concerned, I'm in the "change 360s into mobile firing arc in X-Wing 2.0, maybe even without the primary arc" camp. :)

^ All of this.

In fact, I'd like to see all future turrets designed this way with a baseline rule adding a green die to defenders when the attacker fires out of arc.

Question for the Krayts Krew:

I noticed during your "list of newish ships that are good" segment, one of the hosts mentioned TIE Strikers being good, both the uniques and the generics. I don't really disagree with this, but I've just never heard anyone talk about it, and I was curious about your reasons.

I really like the Strikers, personally, but that doesn't usually mean much for a ship's popularity. They have great speed, great offense for the points, and the ability to do some crazy maneuvers, but the number of people I've met that think they're worthwhile is very small. At face value, they are weak to turrets, have low durability, and tend to lack re-rolls on their attack dice (a criminal trait according to most). I'm just wondering why the whole Krayt gang thinks they're solid.