I realized nobody's really done an in-depth analysis of the morale deck yet (that I've seen). In the dozen or so games I've played, the impact of morale has varied a lot; sometimes it does nothing, sometimes it decides the game. As the only Waiquar player at my store, I decided it was up to me to tear it down and do the research. First, a list of what cards are contained in the deck:

Doubt (6 cards)
3x Loss of Faith (2*) - Lose a tray (owner's choice) assuming at least 1 tray
3x Betrayal (3*) - Unit fights itself, assuming at least 1 tray

Confusion (12 cards)
4x Disarray (1*) - 1 stun token
3x Wavering Resolve (1*) - Remove all boons, if has none, 1 panic token
3x Communication Breakdown (2*) - 1 inspiration for enemies in 1-2
2x Discipline Breakdown (3*) - Discard an upgrade (including figure)

Fear (12 cards)
5x Rising Panic (1*) - 2 panic tokens
3x Frozen with Dread (1*) - 1 immobilize token
2x Uncertainty (2*) - Reform (enemy chooses new direction)
2x Flee in Terror (3*) - Reform (enemy chooses new direction), then speed-2 march

Totals by number of symbols:
15x 1*
8x 2*
7x 3*

Some random observations:

• Half the deck has one symbol. If you cause a level-1 panic test on someone without steadfast, it will do something half the time.
• Less than 25% of the deck has 3 symbols. If you cause a level-2 panic test, it will usually do something, as the chances of flipping two cards with 3 symbols is less than 5%, assuming a fresh deck. (Obviously if you've pulled a lot of cards and very few have been 3-symbols, this probability goes up.)
• Steadfast: Doubt is half as good as any other kind; it only affects 1/5 of the deck. Sorry, Reanimates.
• No Doubt cards have 1 symbol, so Steadfast: Doubt will not affect a level-1 panic test.
• All Doubt cards are negated by only having one tray. However, if you have more than one tray, each will cause at least one casualty to the unit (although Lingering Dead could prevent Loss of Faith from doing anything)
• All level-1 cards add or remove tokens. The usefulness of said tokens are obviously situational, but they at least are guaranteed to change the game state.
• All level-2 and level-3 cards are situational; sometimes they have a huge effect, sometimes they do nothing (or close to it).
• The bigger and more expensive a unit is, the more likely a level-2 or level-3 panic test is to have a huge impact on it.

Some ideas based on those observations:

• Because big panic tests are most effective against bigger units, using Panic tokens to increase the level of a panic test is usually more valuable than saving them. If you build them up while a unit is getting smaller, they won't do much by the time you use them.
• Clearing panic tokens is CRUICIAL on big units. If you fail a charge with your biggest unit, strongly consider rallying next turn.
• Small panic tests are only worthwhile if you would really like to see an immobilize or stun token. If you'd like to see either one, it's almost always worth it to trigger a panic test using a token.
• Card-counting is an interesting subject that I hadn't really considered before doing this analysis. As you go through the deck, it might be worth making a mental note of how many 1 and 3 cards you see. If less than half of the cards so far have had 1 symbol, level-1 panic tests are now more likely to actually do something. If significantly less than a quarter of the cards have been 3 symbols, a level-2 test is more risky.

Anyone else have any thoughts?

Very interesting and useful post. I liked specially the reference to big and expensive units. I agree that deathstars are frequently beaten by moral tests.

I find "uncertainty" a specially dangerous card for only 2 symbols, a reform that usually is more damaging than "loss of faith", "discipline breakdown" and even "betrayal".

Uncertainty definitely does some great stuff; a lot of players around here have been using Hawthorne to turn 2x2 units into 4-wide unwieldy monstrosities. Uncertainty makes such a unit useless for a turn, which is all you need (plus an extra die) to do enough damage to make them useless the rest of the game.

However, there are a lot of situations I'd prefer the other three you mentioned. Causing actual wounds can do a lot more than turning. Runewars is an 8-turn game, so the quicker you can finish a unit off to move on to the next unit, the better. And discipline breakdown discarding something big (like a golem upgrade) can be massive. In the most extreme case, right on turn 8, Uncertainty is pointless, while each of those other three has the potential to reduce their army value. Even on turn 7, a lucky betrayal or even discipline breakdown (more than once, I've seen a unit upgrade as the last model of the unit) can finish a unit off so you can charge a new one on turn 8 instead of being stuck fighting the last bits of a unit.

I'm shocked about the Steadfast [Doubt] result. I thought I had gone through as soon as I got my set and found that there were even numbers of doubt and fear. I obviously didn't look closely enough. I'm sad for all the Waiqar players. On the other hand, this makes me quite excited for my Uthuk Y'llan and their Steadfast [Fear].