game of odds:

By Wiredin, in X-Wing

Scenario 1:

You are flying Dash. You have 2 hit points left. You have no stress and you have VI/HLC/Outrider/Countermeasures/Rigged Cargo. You are soloing a 3 dice ship that is on your tail, has 4 health. You have initiative and shoot first. You will not be able to barrel roll out of arc. Opponent is Poe.

Do you: poop out the dust cloud and pop counter measures (4 unmodified green dice r2) or do you target lock/countermeasures hoping to kill it before it kills you.

Scenario 2:

You are flying Rebel Nym w/advanced sensors, autoblaster, bomblet generator, genius. You have 2 health left, you are the last one to move. Your plotted move will cause you to bump (plotted 2 forward, target ship is a little more than 1 forward in front) and there is another small base behind you and to your right. There is a rock immediate to your right. Both enemy ships have 2 health left as well. Opponent is Backdraft that you will bump and Omega Leader is behind you. Omega Leader does not have you locked (used action for Evade)

Do you: drop your bomblet (hitting both), hope to survive, then fire on the ship coming in from behind you? OR do you advanced sensor barrel roll, drop the bomblet only hitting one) and then attempt to kill the other one. In both scenarios you will still be in arc of at least one of these ships.

What are your favorite do or die scenarios?

Edited by Wiredin

Never tell me the odds.

For your first scenario, depends greatly what the enemy ship's agility is, as well as any defensive tokens or modifiers they might have.

I'd say only go for the kill if they are agility 1 or less with no tokens or modifiers.

I had a similar situation come up at a SC last weekend. My 2 Hull firespray was at range 3 of a 3 hull batwing. I had ps advantage. He had a focus so odds of me killing him aren't great so I took evade. I did 1 damage to him and he kept his focus for offense. He got lucky and got all 4 hits after using focus but I got lucky as well and rolled 2 out of 3 evades and spent token to just barely live.

I killed him next turn to win.

Defensive plays tend to have more reliable outcomes

Drop the chutes and pop counters. Not only do you have a much higher odds of dodging the attack (or at least enough to not die) but it also more than likely forces the enemy to divert course so they dont ram right into the chutes, letting you line up a 2nd round where they cant get a shot on you.

Since you lack doublemods i wouldnt want to bank on getting a perfect 4hit and 0evade, even if the target has 0 defense. You just KNOW the odds will go "You thought you had the odds? Naaahh..." you just KNOW IT lol

Can't answer these questions without knowing agility values and relevant tokens/upgrades on the enemy ships.

34 minutes ago, EdgeOfDreams said:

Can't answer these questions without knowing agility values and relevant tokens/upgrades on the enemy ships.

edit'd with ships now.

Scenario 1: neither unless Poe is very likely to run over the cloud:

Focus plus countermeasures provides a better defensive outcome unless you can Rob Poe of his action by making him run over the debris.

Scenario 2: take the option where you don't bump... Both outcomes there aren't exactly ideal, but not bumping (and by extension not being behind backdraft) is massively better