Statistics we might forget about (updated!)

By xerpo, in Star Wars: Armada

15 minutes ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

Frankish soldiers were captured in such droves that in auction 1 could sell for less than 1 shoe.

That is a fact. Now, of what use is it to you?

Maybe in a game within that context I could find that useful. Who knows, there are kickstarters for everything now a days so, who knows!

10 minutes ago, xerpo said:

I thought it would be useful in several ways:

First to avoid the missarguing with absolutes or straight made up numbers. Here is a refference.
Second, to brake down the game to averages, as an interesting fact, for those who appreciate it. I learned quite a few things, even with 2 years playing in my back, about rear arcs (that everyone is so obssesed in hidding) and how useful can they be specialy for rebels at long range and high speed after jumping over an enemy ship, for instance. This data helps to see things in another way maybe with perspective.
Third, as a rebel player only, to prove facts about the game. Imperials are superior, in numbers (not luck, fleet design, skill). While Rebels are struggling to follow up and mistakely taken as superior in settled statements like the ones I posted in the beggining of the OP.

This is the conclusions I take, personally, from the facts providen (in this case by me, but would be the same if anyone cared to post anything like this previously) and so anyone here is free to take the conclusions they want from the facts providen. With a difference, this facts are true.

Ah, I see. Well, to each his own I guess. I couldn't find much application of the data, though I too was interested in how much dice overall is to be found in rear arcs.

Edited by GhostofNobodyInParticular
17 minutes ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

There's accepting facts, and there's making use of those facts. I think he's stuck on the second, as am I. For example, I could tell you that during a 'low' point in the Crusades, Frankish soldiers were captured in such droves that in auction 1 could sell for less than 1 shoe.

That is a fact. Now, of what use is it to you?

I find the same issue with your numbers. Yes , they are facts. But of what value? They won't influence my thoughts for fleet-building, for the reasons I expressed earlier. They won't affect my game-plan, for that is molded based on my own fleet, and the fleet immediately in front of me, not the averages of my faction and the other's.

Exactly. Since I think the others have handled the concern.

9 minutes ago, xerpo said:

I thought it would be useful in several ways:

First to avoid the missarguing with absolutes or straight made up numbers. Here is a refference.
Second, to brake down the game to averages, as an interesting fact, for those who appreciate it. I learned quite a few things, even with 2 years playing in my back, about rear arcs (that everyone is so obssesed in hidding) and how useful can they be specialy for rebels at long range and high speed after jumping over an enemy ship, for instance. This data helps to see things in another way maybe with perspective.
Third, as a rebel player only, to prove facts about the game. Imperials are superior, in numbers (not luck, fleet design, skill). While Rebels are struggling to follow up and mistakely taken as superior in settled statements like the ones I posted in the beggining of the OP.

This is the conclusions I take, personally, from the facts providen (in this case by me, but would be the same if anyone cared to post anything like this previously) and so anyone here is free to take the conclusions they want from the facts providen. With a difference, this facts are true.

These are contradictory, but that aside, what stat do you allude to when you mention that Imperials are superior in number? Cost to field? Dice/cost ratio (not provided)? Overall ship count (which you numerously stated were Rebel bias)? Shields/cost ratio or (Shields+Hull)/cost ratio?

**EDIT**

@GhostofNobodyInParticular has shown me the light in that the data is useful for you and your experience. That is a good thing, and no one should say contrary to this; it makes your gaming experience better. That's what we all truly want anyways. Sorry for dragging it out.

Edited by Geodes
Dun gon too far.
2 minutes ago, Geodes said:

These are contradictory, but that aside, what stat do you allude to when you mention that Imperials are superior in number? Cost to field? Dice/cost ratio (not provided)? Overall ship count (which you numerously stated were Rebel bias)? Shields/cost ratio or (Shields+Hull)/cost ratio?

Let me answer with another question, what facts providen talks you out from accepting my statement? After all you can use that data to prove anything you want.

5 minutes ago, Geodes said:

These are contradictory, but that aside, what stat do you allude to when you mention that Imperials are superior in number? Cost to field? Dice/cost ratio (not provided)? Overall ship count (which you numerously stated were Rebel bias)? Shields/cost ratio or (Shields+Hull)/cost ratio ?

1 minute ago, xerpo said:

Let me answer with another question, what facts providen talks you out from accepting my statement? After all you can use that data to prove anything you want.

You didn't make a statement that required a binary answer, so nothing really makes me accept or refute your post. The ratios listed above for individual ships might be useful for folks if you wanted to pursue those avenues as well. It will make your original data more complete and create a few discussion points for others later. :)

17 minutes ago, Geodes said:

You didn't make a statement that required a binary answer, so nothing really makes me accept or refute your post. The ratios listed above for individual ships might be useful for folks if you wanted to pursue those avenues as well. It will make your original data more complete and create a few discussion points for others later. :)

Well if you want a straight answer I would say all of it. Ships are better in almost every average (dice output, hull points) and in the ones the rebels are supposed to shine we can see that the average is almost equal. (speed, shields), these being the four legs of the table. About the squadrons I can see that rebels have more expensive squadrons in general, providen by the numbers. While the average hull maintains almost equal in both factions but the scatter token aces shines by double in the imperial side.
I can also see that the average ships cost is higher in the imperial side for a total amount that does not justifies, in my opinion, all the diferences mentioned before.
Commanders seems to be an issue as well, while the imperials have a lot of cheap commanders to choose from, the average raises up so much for rebeles with the 30ish up commanders and two on the tops expensive 38. Just one of these in the imperial side. If I substract the difference from the average of the commanders to the difference of the averege in the ship cost, the result is still negative, so the 'more expensive commanders is not a balance for the less expensive ships' , a well settled statement I heard a lot.

Sure this data can be expanded for better usage, maybe @TaeSWXW can enlighten us with his profesional skills. I just think I have just done my part.

Edited by xerpo

This reminds me of a lovely automotive story:

In 2012, the EU set new CO2 emissions regulations which forced car manufacturers to pay penalties if the average emissions of all their cars exceeded a certain amount.

So Aston Martin bought this:

maxresdefault.jpg

...and resold it as this:

aston_martin_cygnet_012.JPG?itok=LQsdLqO

Which, sure enough, brought average emissions down.

Now, xerpo's tirade appears to be an attempt to prove that any of that somehow made any difference whatsoever to this:

maxresdefault.jpg

First, I'd like to say I appreciate xerpo's time and effort in posting his data in an effort to foster more discussions about Armada. :)

That said, I do think more careful selection of the metrics to be analyzed would be more useful, along with the questions to be answered.

For instance, as alluded to by others, when it comes to the activation numbers question, average ship cost doesn't matter. Instead, lowest absolute cost does. Rebels have an advantage due to their 18 point lowest cost ship vs the 24 point lowest cost Imperial ship. For padding activations, no other metric matters.

2 hours ago, xerpo said:

Imperials are superior, in numbers (not luck, fleet design, skill). While Rebels are struggling to follow up and mistakely taken as superior

This is why everybody is ascribing ulterior motives to your data: we've all (most of us) seen your screeds about the "obvious" superiority of Imperials over Rebels, and these are obviously cherry-picked statistics that you've chosen to support your predetermined position.

Ask yourself this: what drove you to dig up this data and make this post? If anywhere in your answer you talk about how superior one side is to the other or faction imbalance, you're coming into the project with a flawed mindset and validating your audience's skepticism.

Math is valuable, but if you feed any algorithm a flawed or insufficient data set, you're going to get meaningless results. Any experienced player will tell you that a ship is way more than the sum of its parts--especially if you only account for the sum of unsophisticated "parts" like "total dice" and "total hull."

The VSD1's front arc and the MC30S's side arc feature identical dice. The Arquitens has identical side batteries to the Nebulon's front. Would you say these ships are comparable in any way?

No, they play very differently, and are costed very differently, because side arcs are easier to kite with and stay at long range, speed is hugely important for black dice to get into range, strong hull is dramatically devalued by lack of a defensive retrofit, one strong arc is multiplied by having access to a weapons team, a narrow arc is harder to bring to bear but also more vulnerable than a wide arc, etc.

Where do you account for any of these very significant factors in your presentation? And if you don't, how can you draw meaningful holistic conclusions from it about the superiority of one subset of your data vs the other?

TL;DR: This is data, not information or knowledge .

26 minutes ago, Ardaedhel said:

This is why everybody is ascribing ulterior motives to your data: we've all (most of us) seen your screeds about the "obvious" superiority of Imperials over Rebels, and these are obviously cherry-picked statistics that you've chosen to support your predetermined position.

Ask yourself this: what drove you to dig up this data and make this post? If anywhere in your answer you talk about how superior one side is to the other or faction imbalance, you're coming into the project with a flawed mindset and validating your audience's skepticism.

Math is valuable, but if you feed any algorithm a flawed or insufficient data set, you're going to get meaningless results. Any experienced player will tell you that a ship is way more than the sum of its parts--especially if you only account for the sum of unsophisticated "parts" like "total dice" and "total hull."

The VSD1's front arc and the MC30S's side arc feature identical dice. The Arquitens has identical side batteries to the Nebulon's front. Would you say these ships are comparable in any way?

No, they play very differently, and are costed very differently, because side arcs are easier to kite with and stay at long range, speed is hugely important for black dice to get into range, strong hull is dramatically devalued by lack of a defensive retrofit, one strong arc is multiplied by having access to a weapons team, a narrow arc is harder to bring to bear but also more vulnerable than a wide arc, etc.

Where do you account for any of these very significant factors in your presentation? And if you don't, how can you draw meaningful holistic conclusions from it about the superiority of one subset of your data vs the other?

TL;DR: This is data, not information or knowledge .

Slow clap....

I'm sure someone has pointed it out but just in case not. Han is not 27 points he is 26

9 hours ago, Ardaedhel said:

The VSD1's front arc and the MC30S's side arc feature identical dice.

The VSD features 1 more dice from its front hull than the MC30 from its side hull. Maybe we seem to need this more than we want to admit. To search the propper data when posting against/in favor of a thread so we avoid making up numbers that will eventually create false statements in missinformed people.

4 hours ago, Tirion said:

I'm sure someone has pointed it out but just in case not. Han is not 27 points he is 26

Noone did before you, I'll fix it thanx.

9 hours ago, Maturin said:

Instead, lowest absolute cost does

This is registered in the OP. Most expensive ship and most cheap one. Again, for anyone to wants to take their own conclusions. As you just did. Wich is a good thing.

Now, not quoting you, but following my own line of thoughts. This data is not

9 hours ago, Ardaedhel said:

cherry-picked

it might seem so if the result or the conclusions you draw from it may not be of your liking . Many other people here can use the data, extrapolate it to other situatuons to make their own assumptions, again, based in true data. Not just some random believe about ships, dropped randomly in a forum to harass someone.
Again, if somebody feels this is not of their liking I'm not pointing a pistol to his head. You might want instead to expand the facts to your "cherry-picking" so you can prove your own assumptions, that will remain assumptions as long as you dont prove them.

Not disagreeing with you at all xerpo. Just looking to point out that good data can be hard to pick out amongst a slew of less relevant data when looking to answer a question.

Thus, the need for analysis as well as raw data.

23 hours ago, Maturin said:

First, I'd like to say I appreciate xerpo's time and effort in posting his data in an effort to foster more discussions about Armada. :)

That said, I do think more careful selection of the metrics to be analyzed would be more useful, along with the questions to be answered.

For instance, as alluded to by others, when it comes to the activation numbers question, average ship cost doesn't matter. Instead, lowest absolute cost does. Rebels have an advantage due to their 18 point lowest cost ship vs the 24 point lowest cost Imperial ship. For padding activations, no other metric matters.

Two mistakes. One little and one a bit bigger.

Cheapest imperoal ships is 23

And you must to look at the cheapest non flotilla ship too. Flotillas cannot be flagship anymore so all flotillas is not a legal fleet. You need at least one hh or raider. It makes the difference even bigger cause there are 8 points between those two little ships.

However, I agree.

Need to also breal it dowm by ship size so large imp vs large rebels amd such

On 7/27/2017 at 2:31 PM, CaribbeanNinja said:

What would be super cool is a true Rebel vs Imp REAL debate.

No name calling. No hyperbole.

Just productive discussion about a game .

I call on @xerpo and @WGNF911 to lead the battle. (If you recall WGNF911 wrote a post a while back about the rebel skewed data)

Oh man, I actually sat down and did some rudamentary number crunching right before the last wave came out but I've been soooo busy. Must post later.

1 hour ago, WGNF911 said:

Oh man, I actually sat down and did some rudamentary number crunching right before the last wave came out but I've been soooo busy. Must post later.

I would be interested to read about what you have found and to discuss it. :)

https://modise95.blogspot.com/2016/12/star-wars-armada-squadron-threat.html

I had looked at squadrons more in depth and analyzed them based on distance, rogue ability and swarm for threat analysis. This was pre-sloane. I did not take into consideration hull, howlrunner, and other squadron abilities. When a person starts looking at the numbers it is easy to get lost in the detailed numbers, this is when a person can really start realizing how one ability can make a large difference, so a person can then start maximizing squadron usage to maximize points. This is what I most enjoy about armada is the little things.

On 1/8/2017 at 7:50 AM, modise said:

https://modise95.blogspot.com/2016/12/star-wars-armada-squadron-threat.html

I had looked at squadrons more in depth and analyzed them based on distance, rogue ability and swarm for threat analysis. This was pre-sloane. I did not take into consideration hull, howlrunner, and other squadron abilities. When a person starts looking at the numbers it is easy to get lost in the detailed numbers, this is when a person can really start realizing how one ability can make a large difference, so a person can then start maximizing squadron usage to maximize points. This is what I most enjoy about armada is the little things.

I know you didn't take little things but Vader is easy and after 6 waves he is still The Killer. Bossk is close but behind. ;)

I would swear he does 3.25 as average. And 1 against ships.

Edited by ovinomanc3r

Vader would do that amount of damage. My formulas did not take into account special abilities. So, his points per damage would be decreased. Good catch. If I have more time, I was going to do more analysis but have not had the time.

On 7/27/2017 at 2:31 PM, CaribbeanNinja said:

What would be super cool is a true Rebel vs Imp REAL debate.

No name calling. No hyperbole.

Just productive discussion about a game .

I call on @xerpo and @WGNF911 to lead the battle. (If you recall WGNF911 wrote a post a while back about the rebel skewed data)

Here it comes!!!!