28 minutes ago, ImperialCaptain2017 said:

I'm back, and I'm still alive. Yay!

OK, so...we got Toad. Great. Now what?

So this long and moving speech is setting off a few alarm bells for me. ForceGhost had been rather quiet for a while, then he started following the "lynch Toad" group when he saw the way the wind was blowing.

I figure ForceGhost was the one "in on the vote" to save his own neck from suspicion.

That's a really odd theory. There was no 'lynch Toad' group, nor was the wind blowing.

I am honored though that you would think me good enough at this game that were I scum I could jump on a fellow scum who is still partially under the radar and expect to win.

34 minutes ago, ImperialCaptain2017 said:

I'm back, and I'm still alive. Yay!

OK, so...we got Toad. Great. Now what?

So this long and moving speech is setting off a few alarm bells for me. ForceGhost had been rather quiet for a while, then he started following the "lynch Toad" group when he saw the way the wind was blowing.

I figure ForceGhost was the one "in on the vote" to save his own neck from suspicion.

Nippy was #2 on the Toad vote. If anyone fits the description of slipping into the vote to avoid suspicion it's you at the #4 spot. I'm about 60% you are the other Scum and like Pod you're trying to deflect.

18 minutes ago, Truthiness said:

Nippy was #2 on the Toad vote. If anyone fits the description of slipping into the vote to avoid suspicion it's you at the #4 spot. I'm about 60% you are the other Scum and like Pod you're trying to deflect.

That was what I was going to say!

Pods play today also reads to me like 1 of 2 things.

1. He's deflecting. He could be deflecting because he's scum, he could be deflecting because he sees how it looks to be one of the two people not on the vote. He could be working based off of "its probably someone who didnt vote to kill toad and I know im town so..." I want to come back to this.

2. He investigated JJ and it came up Scum. This feels significantly less likely to me.

Back to one though, I personally wonder at narrowing the field of players off the vote, unless the remaining scum player(s) were in it. Which puts Impcap right in my crosshairs. I originally thought Truth, actually, because of his reluctance to vote yesterday and he slotted third...the scum slot. But mid votes to me always look scummiest, because of how safe they are. And lo, Imp cap is vote 4.

The other votes are;

1. Myself- for the purposes of my own analysis, confirmed town. You guys should probably still consider me, but I can't imagine I'm particularly high on anyones list.

2. Slippy Nippy- Everything he wrote so far looked town to me. Vote 2 slotted in pretty close to mine, although I think both of us were more trying to underscore the point that no lynch is no good. Its possible he got caught when Toad's actions became more and more incriminating.

3. Truth- Third party I guess. Could be a crazy bluff.

4. Imp cap- see above thoughts

5. Caldias- L-1 early in the day. Reads very town. There was still time.

6. Bike stunts- hammer. Again, reads very town.

Those are my thoughts at the moment.

We're of a similar mind Mad. My suspects right now are JJ, Pod, and Imp Cap. It's hard to read anything else from the voting record and behavior thus far.

We should also look at the fact that Ninja suspected Toad of trying to cover for Nippy/Myself by going after Truth.

1 minute ago, Madaghmire said:

We should also look at the fact that Ninja suspected Toad of trying to cover for Nippy/Myself by going after Truth.

That is a good point. But couldn't that go either way? A savvy scum player would kill CNinja to maybe clear FGNiPs or Mad, or to throw shade at Truth.

1 minute ago, Madaghmire said:

We should also look at the fact that Ninja suspected Toad of trying to cover for Nippy/Myself by going after Truth.

Sorry. Meant to add to this;

this could be that he was on to something, and so jumped himself up the threat list.

It could be clever misdirection. But it could also be that its meant to get us arrive at the above conclusion. Which combined with impcaps posts would be a cute play to get us to suspect slippy nippy.

4 minutes ago, Caldias said:

That is a good point. But couldn't that go either way? A savvy scum player would kill CNinja to maybe clear FGNiPs or Mad, or to throw shade at Truth.

I think it actually casts shade towards nips and I.

5 minutes ago, Madaghmire said:

Sorry. Meant to add to this;

this could be that he was on to something, and so jumped himself up the threat list.

It could be clever misdirection. But it could also be that its meant to get us arrive at the above conclusion. Which combined with impcaps posts would be a cute play to get us to suspect slippy nippy.

*and myself. I miss edit.

Ah I see. I think Truth is probably being honest (ha!). ImpCaps has been fairly aloof, but hard to say if scum. He looks to be suspect right now. I also think Mad is town based on last night's vote. Can anyone say if they are a cop? That might help get some balls rolling. We have some room for error, but still better to carve the scum out with a scalpel.

3 minutes ago, Caldias said:

Can anyone say if they are a cop?

Uhm...why would anyone do that?

2 hours ago, Madaghmire said:

I was really not expecting to see Ninja die there.

Truth being a third party lycncher also completely torps some of my theories from day one. Just woke up so ima need a minute to reorganize.

I will say though, if we had 10 people at jump, and and Truth is third party self aligned...theres probably only one scum left. Because otherwise there were 6 town to 4 non-town...and that could end very fast. Plus one of the scum is a godfather? How could that balance out?

Also, the inclusion of a godfather likely means we have a cop somewhere.

Ima take a shower now, and then I'll come back with my thoughts on Pod, who has exponentially increased his post count, and Impcaptain who just posited a super bizarre theory about slippy nippy.

So probably dumb to announce that? I was just trying to do the meta thing, since you said we have a cop, probably, anyone claiming cop would have to be the actual cop, so we'd have another known town. I guess not smart cause scum could lynch the cop at night, unless we had some sort of way to protect? I was just trying to see who else was verified town, but if that's dumb then we can look at other ways to cure this infection.

So I'm seeing a bit of suspicion going my way, and I figure it's time to lay out the cards behind my previous strange theories:

1. Originally, I suspected Truthi because of how much banter he was putting out, but then I realized he's always like that.

2. Then I began to suspect Toad, but wanted to give him a chance to explain, so I waited before joining the vote.

Case in point:

On 7/20/2017 at 2:50 PM, ImperialCaptain2017 said:

I'm thinking I'll hold back before jumping on the "lynch Toad" bandwagon. His arguments are getting more and more frantic as we go on...but that doesn't necessarily make him guilty.

That being said, he started accusing Truthiness of "smearing" without a lot of evidence. Unless he comes up with some good reasons to match Caldidas' case against him, that's where my vote is going.

Hopefully this clears my position on Toad and Truthiness up.

2 minutes ago, Caldias said:

So probably dumb to announce that? I was just trying to do the meta thing, since you said we have a cop, probably, anyone claiming cop would have to be the actual cop, so we'd have another known town. I guess not smart cause scum could lynch the cop at night, unless we had some sort of way to protect? I was just trying to see who else was verified town, but if that's dumb then we can look at other ways to cure this infection.

Yeah I mean, I'm sure the scum already were working under the assumption we have a cop, for the reasons I already elucidated. Who knows, maybe they thought Cninja was trying to extend the voting period to gain insight into an investigation target. No reason to let them know who it is unless that person has an investigation confirmed scum to share with the class.

Cal, that looks a lot like role fishing and brought you up a few notches on my list.

Just now, ImperialCaptain2017 said:

So I'm seeing a bit of suspicion going my way, and I figure it's time to lay out the cards behind my previous strange theories:

1. Originally, I suspected Truthi because of how much banter he was putting out, but then I realized he's always like that.

2. Then I began to suspect Toad, but wanted to give him a chance to explain, so I waited before joining the vote.

Case in point:

Hopefully this clears my position on Toad and Truthiness up.

Thats fine, but I've said similar things about moodswing.

Just now, Madaghmire said:

Yeah I mean, I'm sure the scum already were working under the assumption we have a cop, for the reasons I already elucidated. Who knows, maybe they thought Cninja was trying to extend the voting period to gain insight into an investigation target. No reason to let them know who it is unless that person has an investigation confirmed scum to share with the class.

Cal, that looks a lot like role fishing and brought you up a few notches on my list.

Hey, fair. I guess it makes no sense to oust who the cop may be if we don't know who the possible scum may be, since we wouldn't know what we're looking for. If this leads to my demise, I'll take my medicine.

1 minute ago, Madaghmire said:

No reason to let them know who it is unless that person has an investigation confirmed scum to share with the class.

About that... well, I guess it's time to call it out.

I am Imperial Security Bureau Loyalty Officer Thor Tur-u, in layman's terms, a cop.

I'll probably get murdered or lynched for saying this, but I investigated ForceGhost and he's as scummy as they come.

This hopefully explains my bizarre theory earlier.

I'm probably going to regret saying that.

2 minutes ago, ImperialCaptain2017 said:

About that... well, I guess it's time to call it out.

I am Imperial Security Bureau Loyalty Officer Thor Tur-u, in layman's terms, a cop.

I'll probably get murdered or lynched for saying this, but I investigated ForceGhost and he's as scummy as they come.

This hopefully explains my bizarre theory earlier.

Wow. As I know I'm innocent, I have no idea how you got that result, nor indeed if you are telling the truth. It's still a bizarre theory, just now with stuff added that make it really odd.

Interesting...

Can you explain why you investigated Nippy last night? I didn't really see much to go on to cause an investigation.

It will also be interesting to see if someone counter claims.

This actually makes things pretty easy. We lynch one, and I mean, pick one who cares? Then we see what happens as it will inmediately either disprove or corroborate imps claim.

4 minutes ago, ForceGhostofNobodyInParticular said:

Wow. As I know I'm innocent, I have no idea how you got that result, nor indeed if you are telling the truth. It's still a bizarre theory, just now with stuff added that make it really odd.

Possible he's an insane/paranoid cop. Thats a thing. But in a game this small? I doubt it.

Yup. I agree, Mad. It's either Nippy or the Captain. Which one shall we start with?

##unvote

1 minute ago, Madaghmire said:

Possible he's an insane/paranoid cop. Thats a thing. But in a game this small? I doubt it.

Redirecter? Dunno, but it's really odd.