This game is on the verge of jumping the shark yet again

By Blail Blerg, in X-Wing

I hope i got that phrase right.

Anywho: Jumping the shark is an old Xwing way of saying power creep. The shark represents a very old design that is competitive in nature. That used to be the swarm. Team Covenant (I think Doug?) did the first article on the first jumping of (over) the shark: The Phantom spelled hard disaster counter to the tie swarm.

Now, then we had crackswarm. That gave the swarm a new face and new teeth for a while.

But that got really slowly wiped out by the T1 Palp Aces and 3 torpscouts, and nowadays by Attanni lists and Fenn + 2 torpscouts. Now, you can argue with me blah blah that the swarm showed up at this tourney and that tourney. But the real shark is really all of Core-Wave3. This section of material now shows up something like nearly 20%-. It doesn't look very good for Core-Wave7 either.

I blame red dice power creep.

But anyways: If the time doesn't happen soon, if Xwings don't get a fix soon, if nothing makes any of the Core-Wave3 stuff relevant again soon, power creep will make it so that subsequent fixes will mean that fixed versions of old ships will realy be nothing like their original form.

--

Its now pretty common to consider a all upgrades only Wave3 game or tournament.

To note, these are the ships that do not appear with any regularity in standard competitive play anymore from Wave 3:

Non-Biggs Xwings, Tie Fighters, Tie Adv (vader is not great in this meta either), HWK (poor thing), Tie Bomber (lol this ship exists??), Lambda (palp is severely not used), tie Ints (soontir is out-metaed), Firesprays, Bwings.

These ships make some appearances, but do not appear majorly: Ywings (TLT), Falcon, Awings (debatable)

Did I forget any?

5 minutes ago, Blail Blerg said:

I hope i got that phrase right.

Anywho: Jumping the shark is an old Xwing way of saying power creep...

Let me reply to a meme with another meme

200.gif

"

I hope i got that phrase right. "

You're wrong about Firesprays, by the way. Double Firesprays have done well in a number of big tournaments recently, and came I think top32 at Euros.

Imperial Firesprays OTOH...

Wes Janson is really nicely positioned against Dengar, HWKs are better than ever, I had good results with Darth Vader, Snap/Crack A-Wings swept a local tournament near me last month, Deathfire is a great TIE Bomber...

2 minutes ago, thespaceinvader said:

You're wrong about Firesprays, by the way. Double Firesprays have done well in a number of big tournaments recently, and came I think top32 at Euros.

Imperial Firesprays OTOH...

..... top 32 at euros? Let me get some salt, cuz I'm chugging that.

Edited by Blail Blerg
thats not what i'd call successful

We found the most relaxing way to enjoy OTS ships. Casual play in a friendly environment. Each player writes one Cinematic scenario (no 100/6). No points value involved.

Old wargamers and per example in our beloved ASL no points value involved when playing scenarios. You win storming that bunker. If Han exits the map after recovering the data pod. Etc. Fan made cards, facedown ordnance, alegal list bulding (Y wing + Self Sealing Tanks + Engine Upgrade + Extra Hull... No problem).

No need to play Macho. Circa 45 years old friends. Playing as a group since I was 12. From Risk to War in the Pacific.

And X Wing is one of the most relaxing and better games we own. But FFG supports 100/6 so... Do it yourself

I tell a lie. 48th out of 300+ at Euros.

99th at Worlds day 2.

Scum Boba and Scum Kath in both cases - Expertise is REALLY good on Scum Boba in particular. THe Firespray is still not good, but it's not cripplingly awful any more, for that reason.

Edited by thespaceinvader
1 minute ago, SOTL said:

Wes Janson is really nicely positioned against Dengar, HWKs are better than ever, I had good results with Darth Vader, Snap/Crack A-Wings swept a local tournament near me last month, Deathfire is a great TIE Bomber...

I palyed a lot of Wes Janson. His ability is good. But his Ps8 and his lack of repositioning means that its easy to win vs an easy player. Very hard vs a good player.

Hwks are better. Are they good? I doubt it.

Vader eats it vs Dengar. But otherwise, I will admit, better than soontir. Vader Rac is the build atm, and thats wave5 2 ship large turret cancer =) (But yes youre kinda right)

No info on snap awings atm.

2 minutes ago, Hexdot said:

We found the most relaxing way to enjoy OTS ships. Casual play in a friendly environment. Each player writes one Cinematic scenario (no 100/6). No points value involved.

Old wargamers and per example in our beloved ASL no points value involved when playing scenarios. You win storming that bunker. If Han exits the map after recovering the data pod. Etc. Fan made cards, facedown ordnance, alegal list bulding (Y wing + Self Sealing Tanks + Engine Upgrade + Extra Hull... No problem).

No need to play Macho. Circa 45 years old friends. Playing as a group since I was 12. From Risk to War in the Pacific.

And X Wing is one of the most relaxing and better games we own. But FFG supports 100/6 so... Do it yourself

Hey dude, i just advocated Core-Wave3 tounrey didnt iiiiii?

3 minutes ago, Blail Blerg said:

I hope i got that phrase right.

Anywho: Jumping the shark is an old Xwing way of saying power creep. The shark represents a very old design that is competitive in nature. That used to be the swarm. Team Covenant (I think Doug?) did the first article on the first jumping of (over) the shark: The Phantom spelled hard disaster counter to the tie swarm.

Now, then we had crackswarm. That gave the swarm a new face and new teeth for a while.

But that got really slowly wiped out by the T1 Palp Aces and 3 torpscouts, and nowadays by Attanni lists and Fenn + 2 torpscouts. Now, you can argue with me blah blah that the swarm showed up at this tourney and that tourney. But the real shark is really all of Core-Wave3. This section of material now shows up something like nearly 20%-. It doesn't look very good for Core-Wave7 either.

I blame red dice power creep.

But anyways: If the time doesn't happen soon, if Xwings don't get a fix soon, if nothing makes any of the Core-Wave3 stuff relevant again soon, power creep will make it so that subsequent fixes will mean that fixed versions of old ships will realy be nothing like their original form.

--

Its now pretty common to consider a all upgrades only Wave3 game or tournament.

To note, these are the ships that do not appear with any regularity in standard competitive play anymore from Wave 3:

Non-Biggs Xwings, Tie Fighters, Tie Adv (vader is not great in this meta either), HWK (poor thing), Tie Bomber (lol this ship exists??), Lambda (palp is severely not used), tie Ints (soontir is out-metaed), Firesprays, Bwings.

These ships make some appearances, but do not appear majorly: Ywings (TLT), Falcon, Awings (debatable)

Did I forget any?

When nerfs hit the meta will change (maybe not drastically and I'm not saying that we'll be in a Vader or generic X-Wing dominated meta). It's the ebb and flow of all games of this kind.

However I subscribe to the idea that any ship can win a tournament if built correctly and flown well enough. Every ship (and most pilots) at least in my opinion have a way they can be flown in order to win. Hell its why I can't build a rebel list without my beloved U-Wing, I have to believe that any ship can win, you just need a pilot who knows how to build and fly it.

Of you want something to work you have to make it work, nothing worth having comes easy. This is not me saying "git gud" but just that with a little effort and polish you can make whatever you want work. Sure on paper it won't be top tier but who wants to fly a match knowing they'll win. Never expect to win on lists alone, but yeah the meta can be overwhelming.

But I've always (more or less) tried to view the meta as a "Gimmick" sure it's attractive and powerful but it's no replacement for skill and practise.

Sometimes you have to force a ship to work well if you really want it to be competitive...

I only told you my experience.

12 minutes ago, Hexdot said:

We found the most relaxing way to enjoy OTS ships. Casual play in a friendly environment. Each player writes one Cinematic scenario (no 100/6). No points value involved.

Old wargamers and per example in our beloved ASL no points value involved when playing scenarios. You win storming that bunker. If Han exits the map after recovering the data pod. Etc. Fan made cards, facedown ordnance, alegal list bulding (Y wing + Self Sealing Tanks + Engine Upgrade + Extra Hull... No problem).

No need to play Macho. Circa 45 years old friends. Playing as a group since I was 12. From Risk to War in the Pacific.

And X Wing is one of the most relaxing and better games we own. But FFG supports 100/6 so... Do it yourself

out of interest, how do you just make up rules like that - 'self sealing tanks'? Just say "I wanna do this" and make something up? And how does 'no points values' work, because surely whoever brings more just wins...

1 minute ago, Quadjumper King said:

When nerfs hit the meta will change (maybe not drastically and I'm not saying that we'll be in a Vader or generic X-Wing dominated meta). It's the ebb and flow of all games of this kind.

However I subscribe to the idea that any ship can win a tournament if built correctly and flown well enough. Every ship (and most pilots) at least in my opinion have a way they can be flown in order to win. Hell its why I can't build a rebel list without my beloved U-Wing, I have to believe that any ship can win, you just need a pilot who knows how to build and fly it.

Of you want something to work you have to make it work, nothing worth having comes easy. This is not me saying "git gud" but just that with a little effort and polish you can make whatever you want work. Sure on paper it won't be top tier but who wants to fly a match knowing they'll win. Never expect to win on lists alone, but yeah the meta can be overwhelming.

But I've always (more or less) tried to view the meta as a "Gimmick" sure it's attractive and powerful but it's no replacement for skill and practise.

Sometimes you have to force a ship to work well if you really want it to be competitive...

I have some historical data for you on that too:

Some of the brightest minds of Xwing tried to play 2 defenders in wave6 meta (pre fix), best they could do was something like 30th.

Another, one, someone played 4 Scyks, placed top4 a US regional, got something like top 24th in worlds. Reminder, these are some of the better players in the world doing these stunts.

Generally. Speaking from a historical data perspective, your chances are pretty bad. =)

1 minute ago, ThalanirIII said:

out of interest, how do you just make up rules like that - 'self sealing tanks'? Just say "I wanna do this" and make something up? And how does 'no points values' work, because surely whoever brings more just wins...

Self Sealing Tanks is a fan made card that I found on this Forum (perhaps Odanan's work?)

When you write one scenario you don't know if you will play Side A or B (or C or D...). Try to design something interesting to play. If the game sistem is based on purchase your own force there will be allways Tier 1, 2 and 3 forces. If you defend your flank with one 50mm AT Gun perhaps during November 23 1943 at Rossisnaya 50 infantrymen plus that AT gun plus one Stug III defended a farm... No meta discussion here.

Many ways to play a game.

43 minutes ago, Blail Blerg said:

Tie Fighters

They have picked up a couple of tricks recently; the TIE swarm as a whole is in trouble but Scourge and Mauler Mithel have picked up a new lease of lethality with Snap Shot. Theoretically, Swarm Leader should make Chaser and Night Beast tempting as evade batteries, but they're not as good as Juke A-wings (even if they are cheaper).

6 minutes ago, Blail Blerg said:

I hope i got that phrase right.

Anywho: Jumping the shark is an old Xwing way of saying power creep. The shark represents a very old design that is competitive in nature. That used to be the swarm. Team Covenant (I think Doug?) did the first article on the first jumping of (over) the shark: The Phantom spelled hard disaster counter to the tie swarm.

Now, then we had crackswarm. That gave the swarm a new face and new teeth for a while.

But that got really slowly wiped out by the T1 Palp Aces and 3 torpscouts, and nowadays by Attanni lists and Fenn + 2 torpscouts. Now, you can argue with me blah blah that the swarm showed up at this tourney and that tourney. But the real shark is really all of Core-Wave3. This section of material now shows up something like nearly 20%-. It doesn't look very good for Core-Wave7 either.

I blame red dice power creep.

But anyways: If the time doesn't happen soon, if Xwings don't get a fix soon, if nothing makes any of the Core-Wave3 stuff relevant again soon, power creep will make it so that subsequent fixes will mean that fixed versions of old ships will realy be nothing like their original form.

--

Its now pretty common to consider a all upgrades only Wave3 game or tournament.

To note, these are the ships that do not appear with any regularity in standard competitive play anymore from Wave 3:

Non-Biggs Xwings, Tie Fighters, Tie Adv (vader is not great in this meta either), HWK (poor thing), Tie Bomber (lol this ship exists??), Lambda (palp is severely not used), tie Ints (soontir is out-metaed), Firesprays, Bwings.

These ships make some appearances, but do not appear majorly: Ywings (TLT), Falcon, Awings (debatable)

Did I forget any?

I think that's incorrect, both when it comes to the details and the bigger picture.

When it comes to details:

- I'm using Vader in my current list. Won a couple of store champs with him, go figure. He might not have the stats to joust ships in today's meta but being able to use the entirety of your dial and then double reposition without stress at PS10 is massively powerful. Just don't try to joust things, outfly them.

- One of this year's more successful lists includes Roark (Biggs+Roark+Rex+Thane). I've also recently seen Rey+Jan get all the way to the finals of a SC. It would appear that once you put Pulsed Ray Shield and Chewbacca on a HWK and on top of that put another target with a much higher threat level right in front of the enemy, the "poor thing" is quite survivable.

- I've used Deathfire during the last nationals and it got me 2nd place in my flight (100+ people) after Swiss . I've also seen Tomax get to the finals of a SoS in Germany.

- The news of Palp's demise are premature. I use him, he's weaker but still very much worth the points in certain lists.

- X-wings were never particularly good ships - not even back in Wave 1, where they couldn't match the sheer jousting power of TIE swarms. It was the strength of the pilots (Biggs, Wedge, Wes, Luke, roughly in that order) that made the fighter viable at all. 10 waves later only Biggs retained enough power to be viable relative to the alternatives. How is that surprising?

On the global level I think you're missing certain facts:

- from my rough calculations we're somewhere close to having 50ish-60ish ships in the game right now. Some of them are not used much (say, Firespray, Lambda, B-wing). Some of them dominated the game at some point (Falcons, Interceptors) and are now mostly out of the meta. Maybe they'll come back, maybe they won't. If your expectation is that with that many models every single one of them is gonna be perfectly balanced and competitive then I'm afraid that it's not very realistic. No matter how good the game designers are, they're not gods.

- it's effectively impossible to create an open-ended game (that is, one that keeps getting new expansions on a regular basis) that doesn't involve some sort of power creep. Or should I say - it is perfectly possible to create such a game provided that whatever you add is no better than whatever is already in the game. Except if you do that, the game dies because nobody wants to buy expansions, game becomes stale and boring and players leave because system is dying. Not a good game plan. As things stand, the majority of models in X-wing are perfectly viable and can be used in successful competitive lists. Sometimes (in fact, usually) only one particular pilot or one particular upgrade configuration is worthwile but that's ok and it's the best you can realistically hope for.

- I'm not sure you understand what "jumping the shark" means. While you could loosely adapt the term for X-wing in the sense "this is the wave that is of much lower quality than the ones before and the game is going to nosedive from here", I don't think there's anything in the new wave that justifies such a conclusion. Some older ships gradually fading away from competitive meta is hardly the end of X-wing.

Ah yes, wave three and the good old days of double falcon, Han shoots first (B wing variants), TIE swarms, and Biggs walks the dogs. I remember those fine days. I remember taking interceptors and people laughing at me cause they were "fragile", "not worth their points", and "gimmicky". Basically the meta has always had 5-6 major lists then a selection of others that people learned and practiced and did well with. Changing the wave does nothing to help the game. Rose tinted glasses have a heck of a way of blinding people.

1 hour ago, Blail Blerg said:

I have some historical data for you on that too:

Some of the brightest minds of Xwing tried to play 2 defenders in wave6 meta (pre fix), best they could do was something like 30th.

Another, one, someone played 4 Scyks, placed top4 a US regional, got something like top 24th in worlds. Reminder, these are some of the better players in the world doing these stunts.

Generally. Speaking from a historical data perspective, your chances are pretty bad. =)

Yeah, but in my books those are pretty decent results, with the clarification of *for non-meta lists

sure they won't historically do as well as the most efficient lists but to make it that far using a list like that shows hard work especially since they probably fought against and beat the meta lists at some points during those tournaments. But you should know: "never tell me the odds" ;)

1 hour ago, Lightrock said:

- it's effectively impossible to create an open-ended game (that is, one that keeps getting new expansions on a regular basis) that doesn't involve some sort of power creep. Or should I say - it is perfectly possible to create such a game provided that whatever you add is no better than whatever is already in the game. Except if you do that, the game dies because nobody wants to buy expansions, game becomes stale and boring and players leave because system is dying. Not a good game plan. As things stand, the majority of models in X-wing are perfectly viable and can be used in successful competitive lists. Sometimes (in fact, usually) only one particular pilot or one particular upgrade configuration is worthwile but that's ok and it's the best you can realistically hope for.

The problem with new waves is that in order to sell they need to be different enough and/or fill a niche and/or have a unique and attractive gimmick.

This however ends up with some of the newer ships have better gimmicks, or in the case of re-arranging stats they may have better or easier to use allocations.

In theory power creep is avoidable if every ship has a different and equal gimmick but it shouldn't be expected in any game that's running for a long period of time.

plus (as you stated) many ships are given use thanks to pilots (X-Wing with Biggs these days) or upgrade cards (inquisitor + title + PTL even though this was never super dominant).

its unrealistic to expect all ships to have an equal appearance at tournaments but hey, it gives me someone to root for. Show me a dual firespray list and they're te team I'm cheering for, or a tie swarm, or B-Wing or a thing against junpmasters :P

Not only is it unrealistic to have all ships balanced at any point it's also undesirable.

I think the gap between 'haves' and 'have nots' is too big at the moment, but I understand that inequality is important.

2 minutes ago, SOTL said:

Not only is it unrealistic to have all ships balanced at any point it's also undesirable.

I think the gap between 'haves' and 'have nots' is too big at the moment, but I understand that inequality is important.

Might be unrealistic, but isn´t that the point of everything having a point cost? To balance things in relation to each other.

1 minute ago, Pretty Green said:

Might be unrealistic, but isn´t that the point of everything having a point cost? To balance things in relation to each other.

To bring things closer to each other, yes. But to avoid a stale metagame (and drive sales) you want to be able to stir the pot so that different stuff bubbles to the top at different points.

To stretch the cooking pot analogy to breaking point - you ideally want a pot that's quite broad but shallow, so there's a lot of room for variety at the top and the stuff at the bottom isn't so far away. What we've got right now is a pot that's quite tall and thin, though.

5 minutes ago, SOTL said:

To bring things closer to each other, yes. But to avoid a stale metagame (and drive sales) you want to be able to stir the pot so that different stuff bubbles to the top at different points.

To stretch the cooking pot analogy to breaking point - you ideally want a pot that's quite broad but shallow, so there's a lot of room for variety at the top and the stuff at the bottom isn't so far away. What we've got right now is a pot that's quite tall and thin, though.

Can't agree with that. I'm currently preparing for ETC (European Team Championships). It's essentially a tournament pitting teams of 6 against one another. Each team consists of 2 players from each faction and the rule is that no unique pilot or upgrade can repeat itself within the team. You know how many problems we had with that restriction? None at all. Pretty much everyone ended up playing whatever they wanted. There was maybe one case when both players would like to take the same unique upgrade but they found a substitute almost immediately. And this is top level players we're talking about. Nobody gets picked for a national ETC team unless they had success in large events and there's no place for funny lists there - everyone's flying whatever they think is going to give them the win. I think the pot is much broader than you give it credit for.

Just now, Lightrock said:

Can't agree with that. I'm currently preparing for ETC (European Team Championships). It's essentially a tournament pitting teams of 6 against one another. Each team consists of 2 players from each faction and the rule is that no unique pilot or upgrade can repeat itself within the team. You know how many problems we had with that restriction? None at all. Pretty much everyone ended up playing whatever they wanted. There was maybe one case when both players would like to take the same unique upgrade but they found a substitute almost immediately. And this is top level players we're talking about. Nobody gets picked for a national ETC team unless they had success in large events and there's no place for funny lists there - everyone's flying whatever they think is going to give them the win. I think the pot is much broader than you give it credit for.

Sure. And if you let all three players on a team play the same faction without restriction would you expect the same diversity?

Under the top few lists there is a really healthy metagame struggling to get out.