6 minutes ago, Crit Happens said:

Do you actually have two accounts? If so... why?

Because my mouth is writing cheques my body can't cash.

@kris40k I'm putting it through the X-Wing dice calculator... just put in 1 or 2 attack dice and force them into hits with Palp/Guidance Chips selected then roll 3 green dice against them.

4 minutes ago, smccaughan said:

Kestal with VI, Ion Cannon, LWF, and Cruise. 33 pts

Stridan, FCS, Hux. 39 pts

"Double Edge" VI, unguided rockets, ion cannon. 27 pts

Hux garuntee's the ion cannon shot hits. walk someone off of the board.

or drop cruise off of kestral for lwf on double edge

13 minutes ago, SOTL said:

I'm putting it through the X-Wing dice calculator... just put in 1 or 2 attack dice and force them into hits with Palp/Guidance Chips selected then roll 3 green dice against them.

Gotcha.

Well, the numbers are off, severely

way i see it is:

Average roll of 3 green dice is evade, focus, blank.
Lets say you got 2hit/crits and a focus. If you spend the focus to make it 3hits then while yes it forces Fenn to spend his focus defensively on 1 die result, he still evaded the attack. If you instead keep it to cancel dice, youre more likely to get 1 hit through. Hence why i think Ion Cannon or some other "on hit" effect will be best. Forcing your opponent to burn a focus is still a victory but anyone can do that.
Kestal probably wont be dealing insane damage, but dodging her entirely hinges on lucky rolls and lucky rolls alone.

7 minutes ago, kris40k said:

Gotcha.

Well, the numbers are off, severely

That would be extremely unlikely. Your maths don't work, I can tell you that much.

Fenn has 3 green dice, each one has a 62.5% chance of coming up blank. So the odds of rolling three blanks = 62.5% x 62.5% x 62.5% = 24.4%, so he's got a 76% chance of rolling at least 1 evade. Which is what the dice calculator is coming up with.

I think you need to revisit your methodology :-)

8 minutes ago, SOTL said:

That would be extremely unlikely. Your maths don't work, I can tell you that much.

Fenn has 3 green dice, each one has a 62.5% chance of coming up blank. So the odds of rolling three blanks = 62.5% x 62.5% x 62.5% = 24.4%, so he's got a 76% chance of rolling at least 1 evade. Which is what the dice calculator is coming up with.

I think you need to revisit your methodology :-)

Now, what are the chances of rolling two nat evades?

4 minutes ago, kris40k said:

Kestal cancel's blanks before they are effected by AT

Attacker modifies Defense dice before Defense does in the timing chart.

Rolling focus results doesn't help either.

I'm really not sure why you think any of that is relevant to the maths I've presented of rolling 3 naked green dice and looking for the odds of natural evades?

Just now, SOTL said:

I'm really not sure why you think any of that is relevant to my rolling 3 naked green dice and looking for the odds of natural evades?

Sorry, I misread what you meant and editing when you replied

8 minutes ago, kris40k said:

Sorry, I misread what you meant and editing when you replied

No probs.

The odds of rolling AT LEAST two natural evades are ~32%.

7 minutes ago, SOTL said:

No probs.

The odds of rolling AT LEAST two natural evades are ~32%.

P(A) of one die coming up an evade is 0.375

P(A U B) of either of two dice coming up an evade, or both doing so, is 0.609375

P(A ∩ B) of one die coming up and evade and considering B is either of two dice (or both) coming up an evade is 0.375 X 0.609375 = 0.228515625 or 23% probability of rolling 2 (or 3) evades on 3 dice.

Just now, kris40k said:

P(A) of one die coming up an evade is 0.375

P(A U B) of either of two dice coming up an evade, or both doing so, is 0.609375

P(A ∩ B) considering B is either of two dice (or both) coming up an evade is 0.375 X 0.609375 = 0.228515625 or 23% probability of rolling 2 (or 3) evades on 3 dice.

Please see above. Whatever you method is doing with those fancy formula symbols it's doing it wrong.

Just now, SOTL said:

Please see above. Whatever you method is doing with those fancy formula symbols it's doing it wrong.

That's...probabilities, man. Unions? Intersections?

I'm not using a calculator, I'm doing the math.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability

Right now your maths disagree with the x-wing dice calculation that's never been wrong before, and with an excel table that maps out every possible combination of dice outcomes up to 100%.

Are you going quantum uncertainty principle or something? 5th dimensional maths?

12 minutes ago, kris40k said:

P(A) of one die coming up an evade is 0.375

Agreed.

12 minutes ago, kris40k said:

P(A U B) of either of two dice coming up an evade, or both doing so, is 0.609375

Agreed. P = (3/8)*(5/8) + (5/8)*(3/8) + (3/8)*(3/8) = 0.609375

15 minutes ago, kris40k said:

P(A ∩ B) of one die coming up and evade and considering B is either of two dice (or both) coming up an evade is 0.375 X 0.609375 = 0.228515625 or 23% probability of rolling 2 (or 3) evades on 3 dice.

Wrong because you're not including the case in which A gets a blank and B is double evades, so you have to add (5/8)*(3/8)*(3/8) = 0.08789 to your number to get the 31.6% that SOTL is citing.

1 minute ago, darthlurker said:

Agreed.

Agreed. P = (3/8)*(5/8) + (5/8)*(3/8) + (3/8)*(3/8) = 0.609375

Wrong because you're not including the case in which A gets a blank and B is double evades, so you have to add (5/8)*(3/8)*(3/8) = 0.08789 to your number to get the 31.6% that SOTL is citing.

I was about to say was that what he was missing? Trying to make head/tails of his fancy science speak but I was getting to that was his mistake.

5 minutes ago, darthlurker said:

Wrong because you're not including the case in which A gets a blank and B is double evades, so you have to add (5/8)*(3/8)*(3/8) = 0.08789 to your number to get the 31.6% that SOTL is citing.

There we go! Thank you, yeah, I missed that!

Ok, so 32% vs 86% chance to evade 2 hits. Agreed?

Still, Kestal does work.

Sure, but (in the case of TLT) you then have to assume that your other TLT attack dice were either unblockably good or bad enough they do no damage, or the token you just blocked them spending to prevent a damage will be spent to prevent a damage anyway.

It's NOT a blank ability, but it's significantly worse than people are assuming PARTICULARLY in regards to TLT.

14 minutes ago, SOTL said:

Sure, but (in the case of TLT) you then have to assume that your other TLT attack dice were either unblockably good or bad enough they do no damage, or the token you just blocked them spending to prevent a damage will be spent to prevent a damage anyway.

It's NOT a blank ability, but it's significantly worse than people are assuming PARTICULARLY in regards to TLT.

Which I agreed with before; I'm not too fond of it on a TLT unless you really, really, just want to ping for 1 point of damage or have a steady flow of Focus tokens from Hux, Fleet Officer, Op Spec, etc. However on something like an Ion Turret its potentially huge, and bringing some control like this to Imperials is good to see.

Not sure about running TLT on Kestal, she wouldn't affect the second attack.

I am a big fan of the Outmaneuver EPT on my fighters (when they don't need or care about PS modification). Kestal looks like she might enjoy it as well.

*checks turret options* Looks like I would pair her with Synced Turret to maximize the synergy.

- Outmaneuver
- Synced Turret
- XX-23 S-Thread Tracers
- Proton Rockets
- Lightweight Frame

Outmaneuver on a turret user? It only works in arc.

I havnt gotten any real benefit out of that card except on Backdraft (who makes it really, really mean)

2 minutes ago, Vineheart01 said:

Outmaneuver on a turret user? It only works in arc.

I havnt gotten any real benefit out of that card except on Backdraft (who makes it really, really mean)

If you are flying Synced Turret, you are trying to keep in arc.

Its like flying Rey or Dengar, you have a 360 arc, but you really try to keep them in arc.

Yeah, the idea is to keep in arc, and take focus often. You only need to TL once most likely. If I didn't manage to get lined up, I'm still able to shoot with 3 dice at 360 and still use her ability.

47 minutes ago, SOTL said:

Trying to make head/tails

The Twi'leks must not know what to do with this expression.

/left field

2 hours ago, kris40k said:

Now, what are the chances of rolling two nat evades?

Depends on who you're playing against. If im the opponent, and youre rolling for evades, your chances of 2 are about 94%

3 hours ago, smccaughan said:

Kestal with VI, Ion Cannon, LWF, and Cruise. 33 pts

Stridan, FCS, Hux. 39 pts

"Double Edge" VI, unguided rockets, ion cannon. 27 pts

Hux garuntee's the ion cannon shot hits. walk someone off of the board.

Hux requires you to spend a focus token to get his unblockable effect, so it is not guaranteed. If you rolled all blanks/all hits, for example, it doesn't trigger.

Also, the Aggressors would need to survive the rest of the ships targeting them to actually "walk something off the board."

In reality, this is little different than any reliable Ion effect -- you'll only get someone off the board if they positioned themselves poorly, considering they're going up against a list featuring ions.