Driven by Hatred Vader end-of-round bonus: dominant strategy?

By ricope, in Imperial Assault Skirmish

Exact card for reference

Image result for driven by hatred imperial assaultImage result for imperial assault vader

I've been tinkering around the damage calculator on http://mattyellen.github.io/imperial-assault-calculator/

Since Vader rolls RRY, the end of round bonus attack would either be Red + Red vs. white/black, or Red + Yellow vs. white/black

Even with the ~:+2dmg and ~:pierce 3, I've noticed that it's ALWAYS better to pick 2 red

RR vs. Black RY vs. Black RR vs. White RY vs. White
Chance to do at least X damage
1 100 100 83 83
2 97 97 83 81
3 88 88 82 75
4 73 69 74 60
5 51 44 54 39
6 27 20 29 19
7 8 6 11 4
8 2

Which got me thinking: even with the "you may reroll 1 attack die", when would you EVER pick Red + Yellow over Red + Red?

Without looking up any probabilities, I would think if the best time to use the red/yellow would be when you're more assured of getting the max value out of the pierce 3. If the defender is more likely to have 3 blocks, the pierce 3 is going to increase in value. So, if they have an inherent block, or are rolling multiple blacks, I would probably consider red/yellow.

1 hour ago, Fightwookies said:

Without looking up any probabilities, I would think if the best time to use the red/yellow would be when you're more assured of getting the max value out of the pierce 3. If the defender is more likely to have 3 blocks, the pierce 3 is going to increase in value. So, if they have an inherent block, or are rolling multiple blacks, I would probably consider red/yellow.

I think it's simply a lot more risky to gamble on the pierce 3 vs. +2 dmg. If we factor in the inherent block I've noticed that RY does indeed edges out RR at some point of the damage curve, but not by much (around 1~2%) and the expected damage from RR is still probably higher

I crunched out some more numbers, factoring in the 2-defense dice scenario. RY still loses out to RR unless you're trying to go for the big win at 7 dmg against 2 black dice. Even that your chance is only 1% better

RR vs 2 black RY vs 2 black RR vs black+white RY vs black+white RR vs black+1block RY vs black+1block
Chance to do at least X damage
1 91 91 81 76 97 97
2 79 78 75 66 88 90
3 61 60 61 51 73 74
4 41 39 43 33 53 51
5 22 20 24 18 31 29
6 8 8 9 7 12 13
7 1 2 2 2 2 4

My point is: can we simply throw out Red + Yellow attacks? Even in competitive tournaments I think it's always safer to go with Red + Red (hey, easy to remember too, always red + red). It's unrealistic expecting to always hit the jackpot like doing 7 dmg against black+1 auto-block with 2% better chance going for RY, you'd probably be much better off hoping for 4~5 dmg with RR

Yeah I think the only time I'd take RY is if there is some Mission objective with a static 3+ blocks. Basically if I knew for certain that I'd get full value out of the Pierce 3. The expected damage is probably higher in that case.

Edit: I just checked with the damage calculator, and yeah RY is higher if they have a static 3+ blocks.

Edited by Stompburger

Against only a white die, I would probably roll Red, Red every time.

Against a black dice, I can see his powerful surges being situationally effective. Also, there's still a lot from HotE that we don't know yet, so it's really all just speculation right now. For example, if new units get defensive re-rolls, then that pierce becomes even more valuable. There's no way of telling how new command cards will affect this either. Current command cards like Brace for Impact and Brace Yourself could make you lean towards a red yellow combo also

So, my main point is just to say its a little early to write off an option now as something that will never be useful, even if right now it looks like Red/Red is probably better in a vacuum.

1 minute ago, Fightwookies said:

For example, if new units get defensive re-rolls, then that pierce becomes even more valuable

Block power tokens are pretty probably used somehow.

37 minutes ago, a1bert said:

Block power tokens are pretty probably used somehow.

I somehow managed to forget all about those. Having a block token could obviously play a factor in this discussion.

On the flip side, if they have an evade token sitting there, it probably makes you think about Red/Red.

Edited by Fightwookies
Flip side

Statistically, RR is the correct choice in most situations. Vader's surges are just damage, so at the end of the day if RR gives a better damage distribution taking those surges into account, there's no reason to roll RY, regardless of how effective you think the surges might be. Just look at the math and use that to decide what to use.

As a general rule of thumb, RR and RY more or less break even if your opponent is rolling 2 black dice (RR slightly wins in that case, but only barely). So if they have anything less than that (which is most of the time), roll RR. If they have anything more than that (basically only when against another Vader, who has two black dice with a reroll), use RY.

And...

when it will be more benefitial to choke instead of using RR attack (I assume Vader is adjacent to something). In other words, what defense the target would have to had for choke to give more damage than attack?

1 hour ago, Jarema said:

And...

when it will be more benefitial to choke instead of using RR attack (I assume Vader is adjacent to something). In other words, what defense the target would have to had for choke to give more damage than attack?

The choke is much better to analyze: when you can't actually hit anyone, don't want to risk a dodge, or to finish someone off (as unblock-able damage). For example, if Jedi Luke is 14dmg/16HP then I would just choke him. Even though RR grants a much higher % of doing 2dmg+1 strain but it'll be overkill and I don't want to run the risk of dodge

I don't see how RR can be better than RY against Black. Especially when you can get double surge with one side of Y. R dice averages to 2 dmg. So RR = 4 dmg. Y (with average of 1 dmg & 1 surge) averages to 3 dmg. So RY = 5 dmg. What am I missing? Not only that, but 3 pierce against a black die pretty much guarantees the dmg goes through. If not, then just add the 2 dmg from the surge and you do more dmg.

~D

45 minutes ago, HoodieDM said:

I don't see how RR can be better than RY against Black. Especially when you can get double surge with one side of Y. R dice averages to 2 dmg. So RR = 4 dmg. Y (with average of 1 dmg & 1 surge) averages to 3 dmg. So RY = 5 dmg. What am I missing? Not only that, but 3 pierce against a black die pretty much guarantees the dmg goes through. If not, then just add the 2 dmg from the surge and you do more dmg.

~D

Check it out on the calculator. RR is going to be better almost every time. Red has three really strong sides. 3 damage twice and 2 damage 1 surge. Then two decent sides with two damage each. Really only the one damage side is bad.

In comparison yellow has 1 really good side(if you can use the surges) and two decent sides. Three of the yellow dies sides are terrible.

Also the pierce three only is going to make a huge difference against a black die that roll max. Odds of that aren't very good.

all accounted for red dice are really good and yellow dice a really swingy so stick with RR unless you 100% know you'll need pierce 3.

24 minutes ago, HoodieDM said:

I don't see how RR can be better than RY against Black. Especially when you can get double surge with one side of Y. R dice averages to 2 dmg. So RR = 4 dmg. Y (with average of 1 dmg & 1 surge) averages to 3 dmg. So RY = 5 dmg. What am I missing? Not only that, but 3 pierce against a black die pretty much guarantees the dmg goes through. If not, then just add the 2 dmg from the surge and you do more dmg.

~D

What you're missing is that 1 surge on your second die is worth:

  1. 0 Damage if they roll an evade and you don't roll a surge on the other red (5/36 chance).
  2. 1 Damage if they roll 1 block and you roll a surge on the other red (2/36 chance).
  3. 2 Damage if:
    1. They roll an evade and you do roll a surge on the other red (1/36 chance)
    2. They roll 1 block and you don't roll a surge on the other red (10/36 chance)
    3. They roll 2 blocks, no matter what you roll on the other red (12/36 chance)
    4. They roll 3 blocks and you do roll a surge on the other red (1/36 chance)
  4. 3 Damage if they roll 3 blocks and you don't roll a surge on the other red (5/36 chance).

So, if my math is correct, a single surge on the second die is worth, on average, (0*5 + 1*2 + 2*(1 + 10 + 12 + 1) + 3*5)/36, or 1.8 Damage.

The double surge side is more complicated. The additional surge is worth:

  1. 0 Damage if they roll an evade OR you roll a surge on the other red (11/36)
  2. 1 Damage if they roll 1 block and you don't roll a surge on the other red (10/36)
  3. 2 Damage in all other cases (15/36)

So, again barring mathematical errors, the second surge is worth on average (0*11 + 1*10 + 2*15)/36, or 1.11 Damage

We can now compare the two dice options (ignoring range on the yellow die sides).

Yellow:

  • 1S = 1.8 Damage
  • 1S = 1.8 Damage
  • 1D = 1 Damage
  • 2D = 2 Damage
  • 1D1S = 2.8 Damage
  • 1D2S = 3.91 Damage

Red:

  • 1D = 1 Damage
  • 2D = 2 Damage
  • 2D = 2 Damage
  • 3D = 3 Damage
  • 3D = 3 Damage
  • 2D1S = 3.8 Damage

Yellow then averages 13.1/6 = 2.18 Damage, Red averages 14.8/6 = 2.47 Damage. Voila. More than an 11% increase in Damage.

I personally believe that RR is way better than RY and the reasoning behind my statement is based off skirmish games with Royal Guards.
Royal Guards roll RY as you know, and i've been constantly seeing that (around) 75% of their attacks deals no damage against a single black dice.
Only by rolling the best results i manage to deal 1-2 damage and stun.
Now, i know that Vader has +2 damage and P3 as surges, but that means you need 2 surges out of the attack to pratically deal an amount of damage equal to vader's threat, and getting a surge out of a red die is not easy. Sure, you have by your own side the point that you can reroll the Y die if you get no surges or 1 only, but then you'd have to accept whatever result your red die rolls, while if you attack with RR you basically roll a high amount of damage, plus you might get lucky and get 1 surge out which is fine enough thanks to RR damage output.
Maybe you can consider rolling RY against low health, black defenders figures such as a wounded IG-88 with only 4 hit points left, in that case he starts with +1 block and rolls up to 3 so he might block 4, which makes your Pierce surce quite fondamental.

I get all that, but I just feel Pierce 3 is so crucial to me against Black dice....especially if they have a Zillo Technique out there too. I'd rather have the surge opportunity then nothing. But I guess that's just me.

~D

2 minutes ago, HoodieDM said:

I get all that, but I just feel Pierce 3 is so crucial to me against Black dice....especially if they have a Zillo Technique out there too. I'd rather have the surge opportunity then nothing. But I guess that's just me.

~D

Zillo would negate nearly all the value from the pierce 3, making the red dice the easy choice.

2 minutes ago, Fightwookies said:

Zillo would negate nearly all the value from the pierce 3, making the red dice the easy choice.

I look at it the other way, I WANT them to discard their command cards. So they exhaust it for the pierce, but then the rest of their characters are full game that round. I also want them to burn cards for the +1 block. The less they have, the better off I am. That's how I see it anyways.

~D

Can you wait until he picks his die to choose to use the block tokens or not? Both are triggered with declare an attack right? So who goes first?

If it is the attacker then that is a big advantage, if he picks red red then throw them in, if he picks red yellow probably better to just save them.

42 minutes ago, HoodieDM said:

I look at it the other way, I WANT them to discard their command cards. So they exhaust it for the pierce, but then the rest of their characters are full game that round. I also want them to burn cards for the +1 block. The less they have, the better off I am. That's how I see it anyways.

~D

This is out of the box and for the purpose of control (the idea) is solid; although I don't play Imperials I can see how this could be very effective especially if the game is getting late and the CC remaining are limited.

38 minutes ago, HoodieDM said:

I look at it the other way, I WANT them to discard their command cards. So they exhaust it for the pierce, but then the rest of their characters are full game that round. I also want them to burn cards for the +1 block. The less they have, the better off I am. That's how I see it anyways.

~D

Zillo is definitely better to reduce pierce, consuming 1 command card to block 1 damage more out of 2 red dice is wasted in most of the cases. RR is quite a counter to this part of Zillo.

3 minutes ago, FrogTrigger said:

Can you wait until he picks his die to choose to use the block tokens or not? Both are triggered with declare an attack right? So who goes first?

If it is the attacker then that is a big advantage, if he picks red red then throw them in, if he picks red yellow probably better to just save them.

As Zillo states: "while a friendly figure is defending, you may discard 1 command card to apply (...)"
So, you should get to choose after watching both attack and defense results, i suppose

59 minutes ago, HoodieDM said:

I look at it the other way, I WANT them to discard their command cards. So they exhaust it for the pierce, but then the rest of their characters are full game that round. I also want them to burn cards for the +1 block. The less they have, the better off I am. That's how I see it anyways.

~D

Except that discarding the card isn't mandatory, it's optional. If their command cards are better than the +1 block then they won't discard them, and if the block is worth more than the command card then they will. That's what makes Zillo so great - it can turn dead command card draws (or cards that aren't important) into that +1 block that a figure needs to stay on the board.

So from your point of view as the attacker it's never a good thing if the defender discards a card for Zillo - they would only have done it if it benefited them.

53 minutes ago, HoodieDM said:

I get all that, but I just feel Pierce 3 is so crucial to me against Black dice....especially if they have a Zillo Technique out there too. I'd rather have the surge opportunity then nothing. But I guess that's just me.

~D

I mean, the average damage dealt by RR against a black die is higher than the damage dealt by RY. It's just math. Unless you factor in abilities that add blocks, reroll dice, or manipulate results in other ways, RR is simply the better play.

Zillo makes RY worse if they have the pierce reduction available. It would change the Pierce 3 to Pierce 1, and then they could add a block. When you do that, RR becomes even MORE favorable.

However, if Zillo is already exhausted, then RY becomes better than RR (unless you are trying to do exactly 4 or 5 damage).

If your goal is to get them to exhaust Zillo, then you should use RY, because the pierce reduction lowers the damage from RY more than from RR.

If your goal is to get them to discard command cards, then you should use RR, because the extra block lowers more damage from RR than from RY.

24 minutes ago, FrogTrigger said:

Can you wait until he picks his die to choose to use the block tokens or not? Both are triggered with declare an attack right? So who goes first?

If it is the attacker then that is a big advantage, if he picks red red then throw them in, if he picks red yellow probably better to just save them.

I don't have the rules in front of me to quote from, but for all of the other timing instances during an attack it always goes attacker picks then defender picks. I'd assume that this would work the same way, so yeah, I think you'd get to see the dice before choosing to use the token.

All good points. I guess in the end, its all situational. Depends on whose defending, the hitpoints, their skirmish upgrades, etc, etc.

The good thing about Vader is you get to reroll an attack die and defense die when playing him now :)

Also btw, can you use Force Choke twice now?

~D

1 minute ago, HoodieDM said:

All good points. I guess in the end, its all situational. Depends on whose defending, the hitpoints, their skirmish upgrades, etc, etc.

The good thing about Vader is you get to reroll an attack die and defense die when playing him now :)

Also btw, can you use Force Choke twice now?

~D

well, you could already if you play Single Purpose, but yeah! You basically can activate, attack, choke and then at the end of the round you get a second free choke!