Odds with 4 tie bombers against 3 scum bombers?

By Cubanboy, in X-Wing

I am curious about this as a match up if I take 4 of these what are the chances I erase 1 H6 and and what are the chances I erase 2 H6 bombers on the openning? These are PS5 and the lock is for rerolls.

Gamma Squadron Veteran (25) - TIE Bomber
Deadeye (1), Cruise Missiles (3), Extra Munitions (2), Long-Range Scanners (0)

Edited by Cubanboy

The Star Wars answer is to never tell you the odds.

@Biophysical

is crackshot focus better or target lock?

Yeouch. I don't like the thought of betting on this match. You need to pound through 10 points of Scurrg to kill one, which means eating at least three missiles. The TIE Bombers are... not as sustainable. Hypothetically, if the Scurrg has guidance chips (because, why not) then it's tossing a critical over the fence as well. Are the Scurrgs PS5? If so... ouch. If not - you've got a chance.

You don't spend the TL, so there's no need for both Deadeye and LRS.

Take Crack Shot instead and you'll have up to 5 dice with focus and TL and can Crack the evade (if they roll one).

No need for Deadeye or LRS as your Tie Bonbers move last and fire first. That is unless you want both TL and Focus. Will need to check if it's better than GC.

Crackshot would be the way to go.

is "Cruise Missiles (3)" a new missile i dont know about, anyone have a link?

5 minutes ago, Icelom said:

is "Cruise Missiles (3)" a new missile i dont know about, anyone have a link?

Yes. There are a number of threads discussing it. Wave 11 revealed or the Cruise Missile one.

Ok....did the calculations.

5 dice with GC and Crack Shot vs 1 die with Focus = expected damage is 4.51. That is a 63% chance of 5 hits.

5 dice with Focus and TL = 4.06 hits with only a 27% of 4 hits.

Crackshot is best and there is a decent chance of killing an H-6 with two missiles.

If you correctly set up the Cruise Missile 5 dice throw, you could theoretically wipe a Scurrg with two bombers. Crack Shot kills their defense dice, so you just need the odds for 5 hits with TL/Focus, which I don't know. I'm guessing it's about 30% to get it on two bombers. Your odds are great to drop one Scurrg if you use the primaries of a 3rd ship, and use your 4th to damage the 2nd Scurrg, which leaves 2 alive, and that's probably okay. You're then 3v2 (with damage), and that's a pretty good thing.

It also beats the crap out of Biggs-reliant lists, at least on paper.

17 minutes ago, heychadwick said:

Ok....did the calculations.

5 dice with GC and Crack Shot vs 1 die with Focus = expected damage is 4.51. That is a 63% chance of 5 hits.

5 dice with Focus and TL = 4.06 hits with only a 27% of 4 hits.

Crackshot is best and there is a decent chance of killing an H-6 with two missiles.

What about 5 dice with focus, TL and Crack? Which is what you'll be doing with LRS.

1 minute ago, Stevey86 said:

What about 5 dice with focus, TL and Crack? Which is what you'll be doing with LRS.

Oh, forgot That! 4.68 hits expected with a 72% of 5 hits!!! That's the best option.

But I've only got three bombers dammit....

[wanders off to FLGS]

21 minutes ago, Suhawk75 said:

But I've only got three bombers dammit....

[wanders off to FLGS]

One must never have but three TIE Bombers; I think I have 7. Goodness.....addict am I.

38 minutes ago, clanofwolves said:

One must never have but three TIE Bombers; I think I have 7. Goodness.....addict am I.

You asked the other day what I fly with my 50 point Fett.

It's 2 of these. ;)

1 hour ago, heychadwick said:

Ok....did the calculations.

5 dice with GC and Crack Shot vs 1 die with Focus = expected damage is 4.51. That is a 63% chance of 5 hits.

5 dice with Focus and TL = 4.06 hits with only a 27% of 4 hits.

Crackshot is best and there is a decent chance of killing an H-6 with two missiles.

I think it's funny that bombers might be a super star in wave 11 because of C-Missiles and PS5. Plus if there taking homing/Cruise missiles as a return they just might live.

Jim your bombers are the key to victory.

2 hours ago, clanofwolves said:

One must never have but three TIE Bombers;

This leads nicely into a Monty Python skit from The Holy Grail.

Three shall be the number

Seven is well off

1 hour ago, Suhawk75 said:

This leads nicely into a Monty Python skit from The Holy Grail.

Three shall be the number

Seven is well off

Only if you bring out your dead.

6 hours ago, Cubanboy said:

I am curious about this as a match up if I take 4 of these what are the chances I erase 1 H6 and and what are the chances I erase 2 H6 bombers on the openning? These are PS5 and the lock is for rerolls.

Gamma Squadron Veteran (25) - TIE Bomber
Deadeye (1), Cruise Missiles (3), Extra Munitions (2), Long-Range Scanners (0)

2 is doubtful, 1 is almost guaranteed

Edit: slightly off topic, but the gressor should also dominate ordnance SCURRG no problem

Good play, ps advantage and tlts already give you a leg up,but you can also slap cruise missiles onto ps 5s and or ketsal (academy pilot with ketsal, black crack if just 5s)

Edited by ficklegreendice
2 hours ago, ficklegreendice said:

2 is doubtful, 1 is almost guaranteed

I'll second that. If it's capped to 5 dice then you'd need perfect rolls to kill two of them in one exchange. But killing one of them should be easy, so long as you don't get outplayed.

8 hours ago, Cubanboy said:

I think it's funny that bombers might be a super star in wave 11 because of C-Missiles and PS5. Plus if there taking homing/Cruise missiles as a return they just might live.

Jim your bombers are the key to victory.

You act like they weren't the key to victory before...

14 hours ago, Cubanboy said:

the lock is for rerolls.

I don't think you need Deadeye? You don't have to spend the TL for these missiles.

Instead, VI is a possibility, for a 20 dice alpha strike at PS7?

2 minutes ago, haslo said:

I don't think you need Deadeye? You don't have to spend the TL for these missiles.

Instead, VI is a possibility, for a 20 dice alpha strike at PS7?

You don't need Deadeye to fight triple Scurrgs.

What happens if you come up against any set of Imperial Aces/Old Man Fenn/Fenn Dengar Inaldra etc.

They'll be able to range control better than you, especially knowing that you're committed to 4-forwards if you want your gimmicky alpha strike to work, and if you don't have Deadeye you have exactly zero chance of getting off your missiles before bombers start getting killed.

If you're not going with Deadeye you almost certainly want Crack Shot, but you probably want Deadeye so you don't just lose against high PS lists that can range control well.