Yeah 4 nerfs and its still kicking that's kind of a no brainer that something's wrong.
New blog article out - There's nothing wrong with the Jumpmaster
17 hours ago, Resolver said:I’ve looked at the data and I’m not sure it’ll work to my advantage.
See, there's your problem.
@f0rbiddenc00kie figured out the exact formula FFG uses to ship pricing. I've recently went through it and pretty much every ship that was ever considered broken turns out to be underpriced. In the Jumpmaster's case, the problem was that it actually got a 3-4 point discount for having a predictable dial (which turned out to be a very, very wrong assumption). Mistakes were made, and the fact of the matter is the ship is severely underpriced. Nerfing specific parts of the comboes it uses is a half-measure- it breaks the combo, but eventually someone figures out another one and it's going to keep happening until either a) FFG does something to nerf the chassis itself or b) power creep gets us to the point where the JM5k cost is actually average.
For a while, I was actually considering the JM5k to be in a good place currently (just overrated due to their earlier brokenness) but after analyzing the dataand winning a store championship with DengarTel I have to give in. I'm afraid there is no good way out of this situation.
P.S. Apparently, someone already started using a crack-shot+K4sec combo over attanni on jumps and is doing quite well, so an attanni nerf will probably do nothing to it.
Edited by Elavion5 minutes ago, Elavion said:it actually got a 3-4 point discount for having a predictable dial.
This would have been fine if the dial had actually BEEN predictable (e.g. had red hard turns on the 'bad' side, maybe a red 3 bank without unhinged, red sloop on the good side, no sloop on the bad side. With that dial, it might genuinely have been correctly costed, or closer to it.
7 minutes ago, Elavion said:P.S. Apparently, someone already started using a crack-shot+K4sec combo over attanni on jumps and is doing quite well, so an attanni nerf will probably do nothing to it.
If thewy do nerf mindlink without nerfing the Jump I'd fully expect them to move straight on to Crack Shot as their next best EPT. Then Adaptability. Then Trick Shot. Etc etc.
57 minutes ago, thespaceinvader said:If thewy do nerf mindlink without nerfing the Jump I'd fully expect them to move straight on to Crack Shot as their next best EPT. Then Adaptability. Then Trick Shot. Etc etc.
Yeah it's almost as if the problem is related to the fact that every time jumps can reliable fire 2 torpedos they're on top
15 minutes ago, nigeltastic said:Yeah it's almost as if the problem is related to the fact that every time jumps can reliable fire 2 torpedos they're on top
It's still not as simple as that. It's two torps plus EPT plus insane dial plus large base barrel roll (the blocking ability really needs to be taken into account, the ability to run one as a blocker and shoot with the other two ships is HUGE especially with ordnance) plus Crew/Agro combo PLUS turret (plus illicit, take them down to one torp and they just use Crane for the second and subsequent potentially)... It's the whole overstuffed plate for a bargain basement price. There are many possible routes to removing some of the stuffing and/or increasing the price.
8 minutes ago, thespaceinvader said:It's still not as simple as that. It's two torps plus EPT plus insane dial plus large base barrel roll (the blocking ability really needs to be taken into account, the ability to run one as a blocker and shoot with the other two ships is HUGE especially with ordnance) plus Crew/Agro combo PLUS turret (plus illicit, take them down to one torp and they just use Crane for the second and subsequent potentially)... It's the whole overstuffed plate for a bargain basement price. There are many possible routes to removing some of the stuffing and/or increasing the price.
All the other stuff becomes a valid and interesting platform without the alpha strike though. 2 die turret primary and interesting slots with barrel roll is what the generic yt2400 could have been too if it was well costed and I don't think the ship is a problem if it can't just turn around and spike you for 4 hits if you make 1 wrong move.
2 hours ago, Elavion said:
See, there's your problem.
@f0rbiddenc00kie figured out the exact formula FFG uses to ship pricing. I've recently went through it and pretty much every ship that was ever considered broken turns out to be underpriced. In the Jumpmaster's case, the problem was that it actually got a 3-4 point discount for having a predictable dial (which turned out to be a very, very wrong assumption). Mistakes were made, and the fact of the matter is the ship is severely underpriced. Nerfing specific parts of the comboes it uses is a half-measure- it breaks the combo, but eventually someone figures out another one and it's going to keep happening until either a) FFG does something to nerf the chassis itself or b) power creep gets us to the point where the JM5k cost is actually average.
For a while, I was actually considering the JM5k to be in a good place currently (just overrated due to their earlier brokenness) but after analyzing the dataand winning a store championship with DengarTel I have to give in. I'm afraid there is no good way out of this situation.
P.S. Apparently, someone already started using a crack-shot+K4sec combo over attanni on jumps and is doing quite well, so an attanni nerf will probably do nothing to it.
2 hours ago, thespaceinvader said:This would have been fine if the dial had actually BEEN predictable (e.g. had red hard turns on the 'bad' side, maybe a red 3 bank without unhinged, red sloop on the good side, no sloop on the bad side. With that dial, it might genuinely have been correctly costed, or closer to it.
If thewy do nerf mindlink without nerfing the Jump I'd fully expect them to move straight on to Crack Shot as their next best EPT. Then Adaptability. Then Trick Shot. Etc etc.
It's happening before the prophecy of a mindlink nerf comes true. The chap who won the Warez SC used Torkil and 2 crack/k4 torp boats. Very brutal list. Also very well flown...
Jumpwins Law
"An an X-Wing discussion grows longer the probability of somebody saying Jumpmasters are broken approaches 1."
2 minutes ago, SOTL said:Jumpwins Law
"An an X-Wing discussion grows longer the probability of somebody saying Jumpmasters are broken approaches 1."
Someone in a topic titled "New blog article out - There's nothing wrong with the Jumpmaster" said the jumpmasters are broken? Holy s***t, how did that happen?
3 hours ago, Elavion said:@f0rbiddenc00kie figured out the exact formula FFG uses to ship pricing. I've recently went through it and pretty much every ship that was ever considered broken turns out to be underpriced. In the Jumpmaster's case, the problem was that it actually got a 3-4 point discount for having a predictable dial (which turned out to be a very, very wrong assumption). Mistakes were made, and the fact of the matter is the ship is severely underpriced. Nerfing specific parts of the comboes it uses is a half-measure- it breaks the combo, but eventually someone figures out another one and it's going to keep happening until either a) FFG does something to nerf the chassis itself or b) power creep gets us to the point where the JM5k cost is actually average.
As a not-so-semantical correction, he absolutely has not found out "the exact formula that FFG uses for ship pricing", and I think he has actually agreed with that when clarified.
- If you have enough data points for each ship then you can always create an equation that matches the prior data points. However, this equation does not necessarily have any predictive power whatsoever. And he's not an FFG playtester (or so I assume) so he actually has no idea how FFG internally decides to cost things.
- The equation that he uses still yields different results than what the ships are actually costed anyway, so I believe what he is trying to do is to create a better formula for how ships should be costed.
- His equations aren't based on the game's underlying fundamental mechanics. The fundamental equations governing "X-wing Moneyball" are different, and a proper implementation is even more complicated than my public MathWing 2.0 thread.
- Despite all this, his method is probably still far better than whatever process FFG has used. So there's that!
That all being said, yes, even his "less than ideal but probably still better than FFG" costing formula points to the JM5K being undercosted. It's not a good look for FFG.
I'm in the middle of house ruling the entire game for better balance. I still haven't gotten to the JM5K, but part of the problem is some upgrades being universally too good, and the JM5K just happens to be an affordable platform for them.
Edited by MajorJuggler
13 hours ago, CJKeys said:
Thanks CJ, I left a comment on your site.
20 hours ago, AllWingsStandyingBy said:
Well, despite your click-bait title I read your article anyways.
In my opinion, you are quite wrong. Your basic argument as to why the Jumpmaster is not broken is as follows:
You argue that it's up to players to stop "resisting change" and "adapt and move on" by accepting the Jumpmaster (which I assume means either (1) learn to beat it, (2) learn to fly it, or (3) learn to love losing to it). Either way, this is ridiculous, as you cite several other ships that were meta-defining and then faded away: Dash, Whisper, etc. What you fail to mention is that Jumpmasters have been meta-definining and dominant for well over a year and a half of tournaments, since Wave 8 now through Wave 10 (and all the mini-sets in between, like HotR). This is despite Jumpmaster builds receiving four specific nerfs along the way, and there's nothing in the CROC or Wave 11 that yet suggests Jumpmaster builds that are doing well now won't continue to do well.
So, your argument is basically: "Eh, the meta is always evolving and has always evolved, get used to it." However, what this fails to acknowledge is that the Jumpmaster's dominance has been different in kind, not just in degree to other past dominant ships. And, since Wave 8 dropped, the meta hasn't really evolved that much, it's just been different flavors of Jumpmaster dominance: first Triple Torp Scouts, then Dengaroo, then Parattani, and now Dengar/Tel, Dengar/Bossk, and Dengar/Fenn with Torp Scouts still making semi-regular appearances.
I've been playing competitively for five years now. I've seen Howl Swarms in all their ferociousness, Dual Falcons, BBBBZ, Whisper, Fat Han, Super Dash, RAC, Dual IGs, and all the other meta-defining ships rise and fall. I've never seen anything like the Jumpmaster's degenerative dominance before. It is unlike anything we have seen, and simply "adapting" to it means basically learning to embrace the Jumpmaster vs Jumpmaster metagame as we all continue to play Jumpaster: The Miniatures Game. Until FFG comes along and cleans up this big mistake of a chassis, it will never go anywhere.
Thanks for reading and sorry for the title - it wasn't meant to be click-bait 
.
You're right, it's a matter of opinions. Yours is just as valid and certainly the more popular one. It's also the exact type of opinion that drove me to write the article. I feel like you missed the point of it though, my arguments are certainly not those that you're quoting..
20 hours ago, Babaganoosh said:Interesting opinion. At the risk of sounding flippant I guess it boils down to: Think harder and better. Fly better. Don't fall for the groupthink.
All generally valid points, of course. But it doesn't mean that there cannot exist a ship or combo that is in flagrant excess of the general power curve. I'm not even in a position to say that attani Jumpmasters are that ship or combo. I'm just saying that you could write this exact article about any past or future meta-defining game piece, and it may or may not be true in each context. To argue specifically that the jumpmaster is not a real problem you should probably address it more specifically, either showing that the options to viably counter it exist, or that its power has been overstated, or both.
Good points. To be fair, we have been seeing players bring strong options in tournaments around the world lately and do very well. They just tend to go unnoticed or get written off because of buzz in the community. Most likely, if we get the "one list" that counters JM5Ks, I'll have to paste this article into another another article about how "that's" not the problem.... 
..
3 hours ago, MajorJuggler said:I'm in the middle of house ruling the entire game for better balance. I still haven't gotten to the JM5K, but part of the problem is some upgrades being universally too good, and the JM5K just happens to be an affordable platform for them.
Have you got any plans for that (very ambitious sounding) house ruling of the entire game, when you're finished with them?
5 minutes ago, Babaganoosh said:Have you got any plans for that (very ambitious sounding) house ruling of the entire game, when you're finished with them?
Galactic domination!
Just kidding. Public consumption for casual use, so it can get ripped to pieces, as everyone complains that I broke their favorite ship. 
On equations, there's no reason to believe FFG uses an equation for deciding points costs at all. They more likely come up with a concept for the new ship, and through early play testing decide on the loadout and point costs. If that is their process, that would explain both power creep and how they could accidentally release such an under costed platform like the Jumpmaster.
12 minutes ago, MajorJuggler said:Galactic domination!
Just kidding. Public consumption for casual use, so it can get ripped to pieces, as everyone complains that I broke their favorite ship.
Haha; I think this kind of effort merits an online league or something similar - some organized effort to put it on the table so that people can really appreciate it! I'm not suggesting that you run a league on top of all the effort behind this project - but I imagine that others in the community would be happy to run it and support it.
On 21.6.2017 at 10:54 PM, Vineheart01 said:All the ships you mentioned that were meta defining were also specific builds that made the ship insane, not the ship itself.
Super Dash literally has no variance other than Mangler instead of HLC if
You can switch the jedi on board too AND you can pick lone wolf instead, but when you pick lone wolf, you might as well pick Leebo instead to fit countermeasures instead ;-)
EU finals anyone? ;-)
2 hours ago, MajorJuggler said:Galactic domination!
Just kidding. Public consumption for casual use, so it can get ripped to pieces, as everyone complains that I broke their favorite ship.
That might be the better approach to FFGs testing system. I have the impression that FFG game testers are not allowed to talk enough about their testings, because even very obvious stuff is not found nor tested. This suggest that the discussion about the game changes is to small. Now I might be wrong and FFG just does not offer a good enough platform for beta discussions or FFG underestimates that beta testers on average rarely but the same effort into the game than people do for the life game. Either way, the testing seems to be lacking. So public consumption is indeed the best solution.
I would not mind a proper list builder with print option and/or bring ready sheets which just needs to get cut with all your card errata. Though I totally would like to see proper price support and tournament play IF your changes actually are producing the better game. I see no reason not to fork the game and ignore the official rules as long as the support and maintenance is there. So world domination it is!
Greatest. Troll. Ever.
Every time today when I scanned topics, I laughed when I saw it; well played!
Nothing wrong with the jumps is correct.
PWT, 2 TORP SLOTS, CREW, MECH, BARREL ROLL, WHITE SLOOP, HARD 1S THAT ARE WHITE AND GREEN, NO RED EXCEPT KTURNS, EPT SLOT. 25PTS.
yeah, nothing is wrong. Thats the problem.
20 hours ago, Kapn'Kirk said:You're right, it's a matter of opinions. Yours is just as valid and certainly the more popular one. It's also the exact type of opinion that drove me to write the article. I feel like you missed the point of it though, my arguments are certainly not those that you're quoting..
Several responses:
(1) I don't think you can say that your arguments are not the arguments I quoted. If you didn't intend for those to part of your position, you either shouldn't have included them as part of your analysis or else should have clearly dismissed them as not pertaining to your own position when you included them. I apologize if I missed the point of your argument, but I teach and evaluate argumentative essays professionally, and despite a second look through I cannot clearly tell what your actual argument is intended to include if not the portions I quoted...
(2) It's not a matter of opinions, nor are all opinions equal (especially opinions about empirical matters). I might believe the Earth is 6,000 years old, and someone else may believe it to be over 4.5 billion years old. One of us is very right and one of us is very wrong, we don't both hold equally valid positions (hint: I'd be waaaaay wrong, since the Earth is over 4.5 billion years old and mounds of varying evidence support this position as the most reasonable and rational).
"Balance" and "power-level" are, on some interpretations, empirical matters. If we take tournament performance to be a (rough) measure of balance, nothing else in this game has ever been comparable to the levels of dominance expressed by the Jumpmaster.
(1) Duration: none of the past dominant ships have enjoyed a reign as long as the Jumpmaster, which has dominated the meta for over a year and a half since the moment it released (even longer if we include the Vassal tournaments that Triple Scouts were dominating even before the physical dropping of Wave 8). Think about that. A year and a half of dominance in a game that is only five years old...
(2) Variety
--(2a) Pilot Variety: Never before has a ship-type been so dominant that all of its available pilots have been in meta-defining builds. The Contracted Scout, Manaroo, Dengar, and even Tel have all seen tournament wins at the highest level of play. Even the most dominant past ships have rarely afforded a second pilot an opportunity to succeed, let alone all four available pilots. Whisper was the only Phantom to take hold in the meta, with a minor hat-tip to Echo in Double TIE Phantom 14-pt-bid lists. Ever seen either generic TIE Phantom get flown, let alone do well? Ever seen a non-Corran E-Wing? A non-Inquisitor TIE/TAP? A non Omega Leader TIE/FO? A non-Poe T70? For most ships in this game, only one or maybe two of its pilots have ever been truly competitive, with only rare exceptions. I cannot think of any other ship where four of its pilots have all been highly competitive. The only recent exception may have been the TIE Defender, with x7 versions of PS1 Generic, Ryad, Vessery, and VI-Steele/Brath all making some successful appearances. Of course, FFG clearly also considered the X7 defender as broken, since it received an errata. The fact that top-winning lists can be made with any of the four Jump pilots says something about the ship's cost-efficiency.
--(2b) List Variety: Triple Torp Scouts, Double Torp Scouts + X, Dengaroo, Parattani, Dengar+Tel, Dengar + X, Torp Scout + XY all represent successful archetypes featuring a Jumpmaster. As has been posted, the Jumpmaster is featured in like 7 of the 10 current top-performing List Archetypes from the massive aggregated tournament data.
(3) Errata: FFG has always been notoriously Spartan with its issuing of errata, generally preferring to only Errata/FAQ in cases where the card text was unclear or the rules interpretation unknown (e.g. think Wave 1 "Expert Handling," like most of FFG's FAQ/Errata a ruling was needed to clarify how the card worked within the scope of the rules). Errata for game-balancing purposes has always been rare, and prior to Wave 8 had ever only really been done for the TIE/Phantom. After Wave 8, a sort of Pandora's box of errata has been opened, with 4 balance-reason Erratas targeting the Jumpmaster or Jumpmaster builds: Deadeye/Aggromech, Deadeye, Zuckuss, and Manaroo. It's clear FFG believes the Jumpmaster to be problematically broken. It's also clear that the ship is far more broken then they feared, as despite four erratas sent its way it still continues to be the most dominant ship currently. Four erratas in a game that has historically been errata averse, and yet the ship continues to thrive on. No other ship-type had been the target of four erratas, let alone has any other ship-type survived so well through even a single FFG errata to curb its meta-dominance (think Whipser or X7s).
You may have the opinion that (1), (2), and (3) are not empirically the case, but I'd say the history of X-Wing's competitive game prove you wrong. Of course, you may take the more subjective stance that (1), (2), and (3) don't necessarily relate to a ship's powerlevel or to overall balance, but then I'd say we're using very different concepts of "balanced" and I'd be curious to hear what you take "balanced" to mean.
honestly, the most unbelievable thing about jumps is how stupid an initiative bid you get to run with Dengar/Tel
Just now, ficklegreendice said:honestly, the most unbelievable thing about jumps is how stupid an initiative bid you get to run with Dengar/Tel
Which is... you know, because they're way too cheap.
Just now, thespaceinvader said:Which is... you know, because they're way too cheap.
yes, that is the implication