So how many scum do we think we're hunting? 3? Does 8/4 happen?
[Mafia] Jedi Academy: Day 2
##role confirmed
6 minutes ago, Madaghmire said:So how many scum do we think we're hunting? 3? Does 8/4 happen?
Not really without extreme balancing measures such as bulletproof townies, doublevoters and vote stealers.
More likely 9-3.
If it was 8-4 the game could be over by dawn of Day3. 10-2 could happen if scum get two nightkills or there are third party players. Survivors etc.
Alright. Preliminary analysis time. 12 players. My best bet is either 2 scum with high - power roles (like a roleblock and a redirect) or 3 scum and an extra helping of village power roles.
I'll start by assuming 3 scum - consequences of being wrong are less harsh. There's a lot of options there, so all i can do is speculate. I'd be reasonably sure of a cop of some sort. Maybe just a role cop, maybe a full cop. ( Could certainly be replaced by tracker/ watcher, but I'll get a little meta and note that those roles have been used in the past 2 games instead of a cop, so I'd guess something else)
Probably a doc or some other form of protection. One shot bulletproof is nice, and one I like a lot. Maybe even a village vigilante (probably 1- shot; unlimited vig kills is something for a larger game).
Could even have a pair of masons. Or neighbors (I like unconfirmed better, but that's my game design bias showing through).
No reads on anyone at the moment, of course. Too early for that.
Gink has already done the icebreaker vote, so I'll do a fishing vote.
##vote BiggsIRL
Penny for your thoughts?
Onidsen would like your thoughts/full list.
7 to hammer right?
Sorry, yes 7 to hammer
I think we are in a 9-3, it's the most balanced. I also expect 2 power roles and a goon for the sith mafia, but if there are 3 with powers, at least 1 should be a passive (like ninja or godfather).
## confirm
1 minute ago, Visovics said:I think we are in a 9-3, it's the most balanced. I also expect 2 power roles and a goon for the sith mafia, but if there are 3 with powers, at least 1 should be a passive (like ninja or godfather).
The passives are arguably more powerful than any of the actives.
4 minutes ago, Madaghmire said:The passives are arguably more powerful than any of the actives.
So would more than 1 be balanced? I think it has lower chances of being the majority of them in strongest roles, and have more of actives. A messenger and roleblocker or role cop and deflector for example, along a godfather would be relatively balanced to face a crowd with 9 enemies, so 6 to take down IF none of them dies.
Chanelling my inner Onidsen (assuming there are 3 and all night kills are successful)
D1- 3/12 - 25%
D2- 3/10 - 33.3% OR 2/10 - 20%
D3- 3/8 - 37.5% (Sith win if fail) OR 2/8 - 25% OR 1/8 - 12.5%
D4 - 2/6 - 33.3%(Sith win if fail) OR 1/6 - 16.67%
D5 - 1/4 - 25%(Sith win if fail)
So these are all the possibilities up to D5, the chances look pretty balanced, so I'd be surprised if they got any more powerful than 1 passive, as Mad pointed out that they are arguably more powerful than actives.
Not likely at all to have 2 here, they'd have to be too powerful and the lynch chances go against town
4 would stretch those chances quite a bit, and would likely involve 1 or more goons, but the game could end too early, so unlikely
Did I miss anything or did any maths wrong?
##Role Confirmed
Hello Oni. 12 players and a day start makes for a fun game, especially was we legitimately don't know how many scum might show up. Probably best to assume the worst, and that we are 3 bad votes away from losing. Leave it to Truthiness to make a game where we start with an even number, making it likely Town will be actually benefited by No Voting at some point in the game.
I could make a list already, but it would just have everyone in Neutral. Let's see some game going, and I'll be list posting away!
22 minutes ago, Visovics said:So would more than 1 be balanced? I think it has lower chances of being the majority of them in strongest roles, and have more of actives. A messenger and roleblocker or role cop and deflector for example, along a godfather would be relatively balanced to face a crowd with 9 enemies, so 6 to take down IF none of them dies.
Chanelling my inner Onidsen (assuming there are 3 and all night kills are successful)
D1- 3/12 - 25%
D2- 3/10 - 33.3% OR 2/10 - 20%
D3- 3/8 - 37.5% (Sith win if fail) OR 2/8 - 25% OR 1/8 - 12.5%
D4 - 2/6 - 33.3%(Sith win if fail) OR 1/6 - 16.67%
D5 - 1/4 - 25%(Sith win if fail)
So these are all the possibilities up to D5, the chances look pretty balanced, so I'd be surprised if they got any more powerful than 1 passive, as Mad pointed out that they are arguably more powerful than actives.
Not likely at all to have 2 here, they'd have to be too powerful and the lynch chances go against town
4 would stretch those chances quite a bit, and would likely involve 1 or more goons, but the game could end too early, so unlikely
Did I miss anything or did any maths wrong?
Did you learn anything last game?
I was staying silent to let the game develop, however I have to say. Who gives a crap what roles there are, just find scum.
I do.
I care.
Hang on guys, new FAQ just dropped. Gonna geek out over in the main forums for a bit.
3 minutes ago, BiggsIRL said:##Role Confirmed
Hello Oni. 12 players and a day start makes for a fun game, especially was we legitimately don't know how many scum might show up. Probably best to assume the worst, and that we are 3 bad votes away from losing. Leave it to Truthiness to make a game where we start with an even number, making it likely Town will be actually benefited by No Voting at some point in the game.
I could make a list already, but it would just have everyone in Neutral. Let's see some game going, and I'll be list posting away!
Whup. Advocating a no vote. Kill him. Biggs doesnt get to see N-1. Profit.
4 minutes ago, Madaghmire said:I do.
I care.
Why?
What if town have 3 or 4 powerroles?
What if doc didnt protect tracker?
What if they have 3 or 2 scum?
What if there is a traitor?
What if
What if
distractions
10 minutes ago, BiggsIRL said:Hang on guys, new FAQ just dropped. Gonna geek out over in the main forums for a bit.
Really?
Btw
## role confirmed
4 minutes ago, ovinomanc3r said:Really?
With Errata, AMAZING!
18 minutes ago, Ginkapo said:Why?
What if town have 3 or 4 powerroles?
What if doc didnt protect tracker?
What if they have 3 or 2 scum?
What if there is a traitor?
What if
What if
distractions
I was just quoting luke after leia says "your friend is quite the mercenary. I wonder if he really cares about anything"
38 minutes ago, Ginkapo said:Did you learn anything last game?
I was staying silent to let the game develop, however I have to say. Who gives a crap what roles there are, just find scum.
This was all about chances of sith acolytes and the probabilities of how many in the game considering what roles THEY could get, not us
Yep - the new FAQ distracted me too.
43 minutes ago, Madaghmire said:Whup. Advocating a no vote. Kill him. Biggs doesnt get to see N-1. Profit.
Even numbers means that we're benefited by a no vote - or at least that a no vote somewhere in the line-up prolongs the game by at least one cycle. If we've got good info to go on - sure, let's postpone a cycle.
But the no vote happening D1 is still not the best of the available options. It stifles discussion, meaning that we really just started the game on a night turn. If we use the no vote somewhere in the middle of the game, we can leverage it to get extra information (like who gets night killed, and thereby gets removed from suspicion) or to stall if we have a difficult choice of targets.
7 minutes ago, Onidsen said:Yep - the new FAQ distracted me too.
Even numbers means that we're benefited by a no vote - or at least that a no vote somewhere in the line-up prolongs the game by at least one cycle. If we've got good info to go on - sure, let's postpone a cycle.
But the no vote happening D1 is still not the best of the available options. It stifles discussion, meaning that we really just started the game on a night turn. If we use the no vote somewhere in the middle of the game, we can leverage it to get extra information (like who gets night killed, and thereby gets removed from suspicion) or to stall if we have a difficult choice of targets.
From the moment the 'but the threat of lynching causes discussion' point was made a couple of games ago, I have had a thought:
DON'T SAY THAT AGAIN!
Saying 'I am not sure if we should lynch, but let's say we are to spark conversation' could potentially warn the scum/traitors/mafia/sith (collectively: the baddies) that they don't have to worry as much this day. Instead, from now on I suggest that all players enter into games with the knowledge that:
1) A no vote is possible
2) A no vote can potentially benefit the town, especially when there is an even number of players
3) The the threat of a lynch sparks conversation and may cause somebody to slip
4) That saying so in-thread is as bad as announcing one's plans out loud. It doesn't work. One is essentially telling the baddies that they might slide, so the investigations have less weight.
I don't feel that it is self-contradicting to post this, given that this is all stuff that refers to the damage already done, but for future games, please bear the above points in mind.