Steve-O said:

While this is technically true, I think it's overlooking the "point" of examining the deck. While knowing the odds doesn't change them, it CAN and often DOES influence the actions one may take.

If there are "about half" of the deck left, and ignorant-man wants to diplomacy, he may just do so, spending some number of influence. If calculating-man looks and discovers all 4 "gold" results have been pulled, he may be much less likely to do diplomacy, and may alter his move accordingly, KNOWING that he cannot possibly win. If ignorant man is trying to get them to ally, he will be throwing his influence away. While knowing the odds didn't change them, it did affect how he moved.

The main reason for me, as I state above, that I spend less influence on diplomacy now than before isn't so much related to me checking the deck, but more in my realization of how important influence is, and how spending a lot of influence on neutrals is not usually a good trade-off. Neutrals are good, but influence is much more important in the long run.

IE, while new players may just bid large amounts and get more success with the neutrals, my guess is these same new players, if paired with veterans, aren't winning many games because they aren't conserving their influence for the more important things