30 minutes ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:
@Truthiness , did you get any PM concerning the effects of your protection? Like, 'Congrats, you fought off the hooligan!' or whatnot? Anything to imply that your ability was actually used?
I did not actually. I was wondering about that.
::Sigh:: I can't sleep.
So, here's my issue:
I don't know if you would get a PM, but I kinda imagine you would get something . . .
Now, this leaves us with two options:
1) The scum targeted CNinja, and you saved him. This seems like the most obvious explanation, and has the effect of clearing both CNinja and you from the suspect list. However, it seems to me like this event is highly illogical. There is only one known power role other than the doc. It is the doc's job to protect power roles. Thus, it would be expected of the doc to protect CNinja, making the doc himself the best target for the night attack, not the tracker. This means that either the scum weren't particularly thinking, or they wanted it to appear like they targeted somebody, but were countered. This conclusion leads to 4 outcomes:
1)a) CNinja is the scum and wasted this night so as to appear innocent. The only reason this is unlikely is because he could still have seemed innocent if he killed off, say, Visovics and claimed to have tracked me. Heck, he could have killed off Truthiness and still seemed clean, as based on my above point killing off the doc is the most logical thing to do,
1)b) Truthiness is the scum and wasted the night so as to solidify his position as doc. Now he's completely trustworthy, and can opperate with impunity, as the only power role trusts him and would never track him. The primary reason why this is unlikely is that Truthiness' position was already strong, and thus he needn't have wasted the night trying to improve it.
1)c) Both Truthiness and CNinja are scum, and used this night to secure both their positions. This ties in with the fact that CNinja confirmed Truthiness's account of his Night 1 actions, which would've been odd with option 1)b) above. However, 3 scum and 2 power roles seems a bit weak, especially with no doctor. However:
1)d) Truthiness did post the 'Traitor' link, and what better way to tell the scum that you're their traitor than to bring up a previously unheard of role? That would mean 2 scum and a traitor. It explains why Truthiness wasn't targeted - he's scum, and implies that either CNinja is the other scum, or that they wanted to make Truthiness seem good, see 1)b) above. If the latter, then we still have another scum on the loose. Truthiness voted Onidsen, and Onidsen does have the feel of being set up, so it's likely either Visovics or Ovinomanc3r.
2) The scum didn't target anyone. This seems highly illogical to, but ties in with the sub-options for 1. The ONLY reason I can think of for the scum not to target somebody would be if they were hoping to pass themselves off as innocent, and the only ones who would be affected by this act are CNinja or Truthiness. The possibility that they ran out of time is impossible, 'cause the night was shorter than 24 hours, implying that all night actions got in early.
Therefore, we come to the situation where either the scum targeted CNinja when common sense would say he would have been protected, or the scum targeted no-one, implying the scum is/are CNinja/Truthiness. If Truthiness is a scum, then so must CNinja be, for how else would one explain the effect-less visit to Norell that the latter confirmed? If it's CNinja, then it could either be CNinja alone, CNinja with Truthiness, or CNnija and one of Vis, Oni, or Ovi.
I find it hard to believe that the scum would be silly enough to target a role that would have been protected. Thus, my suspicious is growing - a thought nagging at the back of my mind - that CNinja and/or Truthiness is/are the scum we are looking for. If CNinja is innocent, then so likely is Truthiness, if Truthiness is guilty then odds are CNinja is too, and if CNinja is guilty, it's no guarantee Truthiness is.
Or: CNinja alone>CNinja+Other(Truthiness, Vis, Oni, Ovi)>Truthiness alone
So. With this in mind, do we still vote Onidsen, or do we vote one of the others?
Also, just in case:
##unvote Onidsen
Gah! The formatting's all off. Oh well.
On that set of options, I should point out that if you have an exposed doc and an exposed power role, the game turns into an I Know You Know game (sometimes called a The Wine In Front Of Me game, from a memorable cult classic). That is, the scum have two power roles they want to get rid of, and one of them will be protected.
The smart choice is to go for the protector, on the assumption that they'll be trying to save another person. Knowing that, the doctor is likely to protect himself, the better to block the attack. Knowing that, the scum are likely to target the other role. Knowing that...
And so on and so forth. If truthiness is innocent (and despite my worries, I still find that more likely than not), then my guess is that the scum saw his announcement that he would defend CNinja, and saw a reverse psychology thing and expected him to protect himself, since he was publicly undefended. Or something like that.
And Nippy, CNinja was on the chopping block earlier. If he was evil, he could have wasted the kill in order to look like her was attacked, since truthiness said he'd defend him. After all, who would want to hang a player who had been attacked by the scum?
6 minutes ago, Onidsen said:On that set of options, I should point out that if you have an exposed doc and an exposed power role, the game turns into an I Know You Know game (sometimes called a The Wine In Front Of Me game, from a memorable cult classic). That is, the scum have two power roles they want to get rid of, and one of them will be protected.
The smart choice is to go for the protector, on the assumption that they'll be trying to save another person. Knowing that, the doctor is likely to protect himself, the better to block the attack. Knowing that, the scum are likely to target the other role. Knowing that...
And so on and so forth. If truthiness is innocent (and despite my worries, I still find that more likely than not), then my guess is that the scum saw his announcement that he would defend CNinja, and saw a reverse psychology thing and expected him to protect himself, since he was publicly undefended. Or something like that.
And Nippy, CNinja was on the chopping block earlier. If he was evil, he could have wasted the kill in order to look like her was attacked, since truthiness said he'd defend him. After all, who would want to hang a player who had been attacked by the scum?
Yeah, the double-bluff did occur to me. It's what I would have done. Same on night 1. Norell was the expected role to be protected, being the only known role at that time. Therefore, I would have protected my next man (in this case Truth said it was JJ), in an attempt to protect two people in a night. The bluff/counter-bluff spiral is why I'm not wholly convinced concerning the above.
That's my point. CNinja is made to look completely innocent through last nights events - option 1)a). He's a scum, and 'wasted' last night's kill to make himself appear loyal.
Just now, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:That's my point. CNinja is made to look completely innocent through last nights events - option 1)a). He's a scum, and 'wasted' last night's kill to make himself appear loyal.
Sorry - didn't make myself clear. I know you knew that, but I was responding to your claim of it being unlikely - I don't think that CNinja was as likely to seek innocent as you did.
*seem* innocent
1 hour ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:If there was a doc, he'd have contested the claim by now. He's had 2 days. I agree that it'd be the perfect cover for Truthiness. After all, why would somebody target the tracker, when he is the only remaining power role for the doc to protect? Seems smarter to target the doc in a situation like that. Still, odd.
@Truthiness , did you get any PM concerning the effects of your protection? Like, 'Congrats, you fought off the hooligan!' or whatnot? Anything to imply that your ability was actually used?
1 hour ago, Truthiness said:I did not actually. I was wondering about that.
Actually he cannot give us another answer. If he says the true, then the scum skip the kill. If he list he cannot say us that he got a message cause then Onidsen is lynched and we would know he lied about the PM.
What I see:
He defended the no lynch at day 1. HThe fake engagement with biggs which end too friendly. He redirected Norell and killed JJ to incriminate himself. He claimed before anyone said anything. He put Ghost in a bad place to be the real hammer against Norell. He skip the night kill to reinforce his doc claim. He said skip the kill is stupid when it seems it is not, he just was ready for Onidsen who obviously would know about that being possible.
## vote Truthiness
## unvote Truthiness
What a mistake I did!!
Truthiness cannot be redirector. If he redirected Norell and killed JJ, CNinja would have us two results : Truthiness visited Norell AND JJ
Truthiness = townie.
The lack of any kind of message is bugging me a bit now.
4 minutes ago, ovinomanc3r said:Truthiness cannot be redirector. If he redirected Norell and killed JJ, CNinja would have us two results : Truthiness visited Norell AND JJ
Truthiness = townie.
Why would he redirect Norell? Because he was hypothetically watching JJ? Maybe. . . either way, that's why I said if Truth is a scum, then CNinja likely is, but the reverse isn't true. For Truthiness to be scum, given the CNinja backed him up, CNinja must consciously be supporting a lie,since if he had tracked him, then he'd have seen him visit JJ. If CNinja lied, then there's nothing that contradict's Truth's claims. So right now the more likely option is CNinja.
1 minute ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:Why would he redirect Norell? Because he was hypothetically watching JJ? Maybe. . . either way, that's why I said if Truth is a scum, then CNinja likely is, but the reverse isn't true. For Truthiness to be scum, given the CNinja backed him up, CNinja must consciously be supporting a lie,since if he had tracked him, then he'd have seen him visit JJ. If CNinja lied, then there's nothing that contradict's Truth's claims. So right now the more likely option is CNinja.
*given that
So the scum really skip the night kill vauae the lack of he message is true. But who is him?
A. Onidsen + Visovics
B. Truthiness alone. Not possible anymore.
C. CNinja alone.
I had my own feelings against CNinja now but there are two things that worries me about Onidsen :
1. He didn't notice about my mistake what seems odd. He is a veteran after all.
2. If, by any chance, we lynched CNinja and he is not, we loose.
Just now, ovinomanc3r said:So the scum really skip the night kill cause the lack of the message is true. But who is him?
A. Onidsen + Visovics
B. Truthiness alone. Not possible anymore.
C. CNinja alone.
I have my own feelings against CNinja now but there are two things that worries me about Onidsen :
1. He didn't notice about my mistake what seems odd. He is a veteran after all.
2. If, by any chance, we lynched CNinja and he is not, we loose.
Corrections
It appears, therefore, that CNinja is on a bit of thin ice right now. The only way we can confirm Truth is to kill Truth. Killing CNinja proves only CNinja. Killing Truth should likely prove them both. Killing Onidsen proves Onidsen only. However, killing Truth also kills our doc. Killing CNinja kills our tracker, and killing Onidsen does nothing (rolewise). If we kill CNinja and he's innocent, then Truth may be, given that he wasn't tracked to JJ. If Truth is scum, then likely so is CNinja. If Cninja is scum or Truth is innocent, we still don't know what the other is. If Onidsen is scum or innocent, we don't know what the others are. By tomorrow, assuming a night kill, we'll be at 4 people. If there are 2 scum, then we shall have lost. If there is only 1 scum, then the Truthiness/CNinja combo is impossible, and since CNinja backed up Truthiness, the Truthiness alone combo is impossible. That means that out of those 2, CNinja is the likely scum, assuming we lynch Onidsen today. If it turns out they're all good, then we're essentially screwed tomorrow.
8 minutes ago, ovinomanc3r said:So the scum really skip the night kill vauae the lack of he message is true. But who is him?
A. Onidsen + Visovics
B. Truthiness alone. Not possible anymore.
C. CNinja alone.
I had my own feelings against CNinja now but there are two things that worries me about Onidsen :
1. He didn't notice about my mistake what seems odd. He is a veteran after all.
2. If, by any chance, we lynched CNinja and he is not, we loose.
Erm, what mistake? Are you referring to the redirect thing?
8 minutes ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:Erm, what mistake? Are you referring to the redirect thing?
Yes. I put the chance of truthiness redirecting Norell that could explain his result on Norell and the kill. But it doesn't cause CNinja should see that.
Good nights friends. I need to sleep.
Yeah, I think I'll give it another whirl as well. Till the [later] morning then. Good night!
So I asked Mad the meta question on my role. I am not informed about the effects of my protection. That means it could be successful or it could just not be used, and I would not know the difference. I feel pretty confident that the Mafia would not pass up a kill, so I'm rock solid in my trust of Ninja.
Sorry guys, Father's Day stuff going on and all.
We can settle on our direction in the morning. We still should have plenty of time and should really talk about this before the vote.
What I see as my summary:
I am very honored that many seem to think that I could be a sinister mastermind from all of this ****.
I am still very worried that there are two more traitors. Maybe the setup was 2 "scum" and 1 traitor? Who knows. (Thank goodness we got Biggs right away. )
I trust Truthiness because his story has checked out totally so far. I tracked him to Norell (he claimed it even before he knew I was the tracker). And he protected me. and I couldn't believe that no one died! Now maybe the traitor(s) didn't know who our good doctor would protect? Maybe they thought he would/could protect himself? Either way, a night with no killing was great. While I lean towards the idea Truthiness had, that the Mafia wouldn't skip an opportunity to pass on a kill, I could see where that is what happened. It becomes a lot more difficult to figure out if that is the case. If that is the case even GoNIPs isn't clear, since he could have just stayed home when I tracked him.
For now, lets say that it worked out and that Me, Truthiness and GoNips are loyal to the Platypus.
That would leave Onidsen, Visovics, and Ovinomanc3r. I'd have to look back, but I doubt the traitor is Visovics ( not that it couldn't be. ) I think his votes have been clear both times. He voted for Biggs to go, and then did not vote for Norell (He voted Onidsen).
That leaves Onidsen and Ovinomanc3r.
Ovinomancer has been in the group with the votes (Biggs, then Norell). His logic has been pretty balanced and detailed as far as investigating everyone.
Onidsen was a no vote first, and then voted me second. He sided pretty much with Biggs first (could have been naive, but it was really suspicious) and then went pretty hard after me the second day.
For these reasons, I'm pretty certain I want to look at Onidsen as the lynch. I think Ovinomanc3r pointed it out that if Truthiness protects me and I track one of the others, we should win if there were two traitors to start.
The problem is if there were three...
6 hours ago, Truthiness said:So I asked Mad the meta question on my role. I am not informed about the effects of my protection. That means it could be successful or it could just not be used, and I would not know the difference. I feel pretty confident that the Mafia would not pass up a kill, so I'm rock solid in my trust of Ninja.
Does it means you had not a PM when you visited Norell?
5 hours ago, CaribbeanNinja said:I am still very worried that there are two more traitors. Maybe the setup was 2 "scum" and 1 traitor? Who knows. (Thank goodness we got Biggs right away. )
So we must lynch at least one!!! I don't like that cause...
5 hours ago, CaribbeanNinja said:I trust Truthiness because his story has checked out totally so far. I tracked him to Norell (he claimed it even before he knew I was the tracker). And he protected me. and I couldn't believe that no one died!
... I just realized that JJ must do a night action! Madaghmire said he waited for every night action. So it would be possible that Truthiness redirected you to JJ. So you tracked and see JJ visiting a claimed role to check it (Visovcics) while you thought you were tracking Truthiness. That was a risky move but he knew Norell won't track him (the bad two result for two actions) and JJ behaviour could make him suspect about a role. He was going to die so he was not going to claim anything. Weak case but we are back to "everyone is suspicious".
5 hours ago, CaribbeanNinja said:That would leave Onidsen, Visovics, and Ovinomanc3r. I'd have to look back, but I doubt the traitor is Visovics ( not that it couldn't be. ) I think his votes have been clear both times. He voted for Biggs to go, and then did not vote for Norell (He voted Onidsen).
I agree about Visovics but my vote on Norell was completely meaningless. I voted Onidsen. Truthiness put the lynch at Onidsen h-2 Norell h-2 voting Norell. Votes left: Norell (who would vote Onidsen), Onidsen (who would vote Norell...would he vote for himself as hammer?) and Ghost (who put Norell at h-1). I said I wouldn't blame Ghost for that and I am not doing now but as long as he made the choice I could switch or not. I did it cause we were stuck and my reasoning is just there. With our hypothesis of 3 roles, lynching Onidsen and failing would be worse. Not too much but enough to lose the game.
Btw, could someone explain me the traitor role?
What I intend is that he knows who are his mates but they do not know him. And he cannot kill??
1 hour ago, ovinomanc3r said:Btw, could someone explain me the traitor role?
What I intend is that he knows who are his mates but they do not know him. And he cannot kill??
I think that's the gist of it. He knows that there are scum, they know there is a traitor (usually, sometimes they are kept in the dark). He counts toward their win condition (so 2 vanilla townie 1 traitor and a scum count as a win for scum), and cannot perform their night kill. I believe he loses if all scum are eliminated though. Also, he can be inducted into the scum party officially, and thus be made able to converse with them and perform the night kill.
This is going to be long so I am going to post several times at the same time I look into each possibility.
Let's start for 3 scum (2 left). Traitor scenario seems the winner here or it would be quite unfair I think.
One big true about this scenario:
IF WE FAIL WE LOSE.
Biggs list pointed to Onidsen. So Biggs + Onidsen + someone else.
If 4 roles are true then Visovics (me from his point of view) is the third. Onidsen was the traitor so he knew about Biggs and tried to not catch the attention of the other scum killing a mate. Biggs didn't know about Onidsen and tried to incriminate him randomly.
Weak points: Visovics voted Biggs early on, before he was a cul de sac. His voted Onidsen instead of Norell
Good points: Visovics voted Onidsen before the chances of a traitor were strong (after Truthiness our hero) and now he think he was setup when, likely, we know we have a traitor.
If 3 roles are true, then Truthiness or CNinja is the third.
Let's go with Truthiness. Neither Onidsen nor Truthiness voted Biggs. Biggs could be the traitor and they didn't know and didn't see that jumping on his wagon was needed. He thought he was innocent so the further the better. It didn't go as they hoped and got Onidsen at the first line.
Weak point: why both told us that scum can skip he night kill? Truthiness got a good position. He could tell us nothing, lynch Onidsen and put Visovics and me in the hands of CNinja who, really, couldn't do anything cause a negative result would be so incriminating as a positive one.
To be continued...
Let's go with CNinja. Onidsen could be the traitor. CNinja voted Biggs cause he became a lost cause. He needed Norell dead to perform his trick. Norell can watch him and see that just Truthiness visited him! Now he lynch Onidsen and claim Visovics or me moved or not at night.
Weak points: he seems to suspect about Onidsen being traitor at D2. Why Onidsen pointed to the night trick as CNinja doesn't need him alive to win.
Good point: Truthiness pointed to the night trick before but the unnecessary advice from Onidsen remains.
At this point I think that all those case are weak:
Onidsen+Visovics/me: our votes don't support this.
Onidsen+Truthiness/CNinja: the nigh trick claim was a really bad move then.
I didn't forget Onidsen+Ghost but then we have 4 roles and we need an explanation for CNinja's result. Redirector has no sense cause then, they could redirect Truthiness and kill CNinja. And the same for a blocker.