Using the effects on a Proton Torp attack with GC and focus Edit TL, I mean TL ofc!

By Admiral Deathrain, in X-Wing

Do you use the focus -> crit conversion as soon as possible or do you throw in the die with those you need to reroll (what I'd intuitively do)?

Edited by Admiral Deathrain

Why would you reroll a die that already has the paint you need? You can reroll the other dice, then change the focus to the crit.

I'm not really sure what your question is , so I will run you through the entire process of shooting a Proton Torpedo if you have guidance chips. I will assume you have the Target Lock and are at range 2-3 so you can shoot it.

So you spend your target lock to roll the 4 Attack dice. The first focus you roll automatically becomes a critical hit due to Proton Torpedo's card text. Then any of the other three dice, becomes a hit(or crit if you have a primary weapon value of 3 or more) due to guidance chips card text. At this point you have at least a Crit and a hit if you rolled at least 1 focus. If you rolled four blanks you will only have 1 hit. Of course any hits you rolled stay. If you also happened to have a focus tokens, any additional focus results rolled(after the first that automatically becomes a critical hit) could also be changed to hits as well by spending your token. If by some affect you have a second TL you could reroll any other blank results (except the one that guidance chips will change) and try to get hits/crits.

I hope this is clear and helps.

5 minutes ago, JJFDVORAK said:

I'm not really sure what your question is , so I will run you through the entire process of shooting a Proton Torpedo if you have guidance chips. I will assume you have the Target Lock and are at range 2-3 so you can shoot it.

So you spend your target lock to roll the 4 Attack dice. The first focus you roll automatically becomes a critical hit due to Proton Torpedo's card text. Then any of the other three dice, becomes a hit(or crit if you have a primary weapon value of 3 or more) due to guidance chips card text. At this point you have at least a Crit and a hit if you rolled at least 1 focus. If you rolled four blanks you will only have 1 hit. Of course any hits you rolled stay. If you also happened to have a focus tokens, any additional focus results rolled(after the first that automatically becomes a critical hit) could also be changed to hits as well by spending your token. If by some affect you have a second TL you could reroll any other blank results (except the one that guidance chips will change) and try to get hits/crits.

I hope this is clear and helps.

Ah yes, maybe I should clarify the scenario: Redline shoots a Proton Torp and has Guidance Chips equipped. Now lets assume a roll like 1 hit and all misses of which at least one is a focus result. Do you turn that result into a crit or is it more likely on average to get more hits if you reroll it, too?

11 minutes ago, Admiral Deathrain said:

Ah yes, maybe I should clarify the scenario: Redline shoots a Proton Torp and has Guidance Chips equipped. Now lets assume a roll like 1 hit and all misses of which at least one is a focus result. Do you turn that result into a crit or is it more likely on average to get more hits if you reroll it, too?

It's already effectively a hit. Why would you reroll it?

2 minutes ago, arnoldrew said:

It's already effectively a hit. Why would you reroll it?

Because at some point the likelyhood of rolling a new focus anyways has to become great enough that it is worth it to try and have more chances at rolling hits. I do get the impression that that point involves a lot more dice than you usually see, though, so instant conversion seems to be the way to go.

19 minutes ago, Admiral Deathrain said:

Ah yes, maybe I should clarify the scenario: Redline shoots a Proton Torp and has Guidance Chips equipped. Now lets assume a roll like 1 hit and all misses of which at least one is a focus result. Do you turn that result into a crit or is it more likely on average to get more hits if you reroll it, too?

As stated, it's 100% a crit currently, you just change it with the proton torpedo effect. So "on average" if you reroll it along with the others, you might roll all blanks, making that average lower

I think the question isn't stupid at all. Let's assume you only rolled one focus and three misses the first time around, and look at http://xwingcalculator.x10host.com/diceuilm.html for dice probabilities. Rolling...

3 w/ Guidance Chips (plus one crit) - leaving the focus and rerolling the other three:

  • expected damage: 3.38
  • expected crits: 1.38

4 w/ Proton Torpedo, Guidance Chips - rerolling the focus as well:

  • expected damage: 3.50
  • expected crits: 1.18

So the case isn't really clear-cut to me. Leaving the focus has a higher chance of giving you two crits, but rerolling all four gives you higher expected damage. But not by much. I think either would be good here.

Let's now assume you rolled one hit, one focus and two blanks (adding 1 and 2 to the calculated damage and crits where applicable):

Leaving the focus:

  • expected damage: 3.75
  • expected crits: 1.25

Rerolling the focus:

  • expected damage: 3.77
  • expected crits: 0.95

Here, leaving the focus seems to be clearly superior, because it gives you more crits on average (though not more damage).

Edited by haslo
3 minutes ago, piznit said:

As stated, it's 100% a crit currently, you just change it with the proton torpedo effect. So "on average" if you reroll it along with the others, you might roll all blanks, making that average lower

You might, but then it might also be the only blank you roll, which would be evened out by Guidance Chips. And there's a 50% chance that you roll hit or crit, which would let you mod another eye with the Torpedo effect instead. The math here isn't trivial.

Edited by haslo
9 minutes ago, haslo said:

I think the question isn't stupid at all. Let's assume you only rolled one focus and three misses the first time around, and look at http://xwingcalculator.x10host.com/diceuilm.html for dice probabilities. Rolling...

3 w/ Guidance Chips (plus one crit) - leaving the focus and rerolling the other three:

  • expected damage: 3.38
  • expected crits: 1.38

4 w/ Proton Torpedo, Guidance Chips - rerolling the focus as well:

  • expected damage: 3.50
  • expected crits: 1.18

So the case isn't really clear-cut to me. Leaving the focus has a higher chance of giving you two crits, but rerolling all four gives you higher expected damage. But not by much. I think either would be good here.

Let's now assume you rolled one hit, one focus and two blanks (adding 1 and 2 to the calculated damage and crits where applicable):

Leaving the focus:

  • expected damage: 3.75
  • expected crits: 1.25

Rerolling the focus:

  • expected damage: 3.77
  • expected crits: 0.95

Here, leaving the focus seems to be clearly superior, because it gives you more crits on average (though not more damage).

That is a really good way of calculating that, hadn't thought of that. So first case probably means rerolling it unless you know you are likely to get through 2 crits, so no shields or high defense. Second case is more in favour of leaving the focus, unless you know the crit can't get through. Good to know I am not confused about nothing!

27 minutes ago, haslo said:

I think the question isn't stupid at all. Let's assume you only rolled one focus and three misses the first time around, and look at http://xwingcalculator.x10host.com/diceuilm.html for dice probabilities. Rolling...

3 w/ Guidance Chips (plus one crit) - leaving the focus and rerolling the other three:

  • expected damage: 3.38
  • expected crits: 1.38

4 w/ Proton Torpedo, Guidance Chips - rerolling the focus as well:

  • expected damage: 3.50
  • expected crits: 1.18

So the case isn't really clear-cut to me. Leaving the focus has a higher chance of giving you two crits, but rerolling all four gives you higher expected damage. But not by much. I think either would be good here.

Let's now assume you rolled one hit, one focus and two blanks (adding 1 and 2 to the calculated damage and crits where applicable):

Leaving the focus:

  • expected damage: 3.75
  • expected crits: 1.25

Rerolling the focus:

  • expected damage: 3.77
  • expected crits: 0.95

Here, leaving the focus seems to be clearly superior, because it gives you more crits on average (though not more damage).

Expected results is useful, but so would odds of each result. Wider range of outcomes on that full reroll whereas the early conversion guarantees at least X damage.

I did the math on it for RAC awhile ago, and it was basically at 2 blanks + focus it's a toss up, and a 3blanks + focus, you reroll all 4. Which seems to be in line with the math provided by Haslo.