so if i have a 3 agility ship is it better probability wise to take a focus or an evade.. and as a follow up at what agility is the crossover point? Thanks...
Mathwing question...
Typically the math works out to evade being better at <= 3 green dice and focus is better at >= 4 green dice OR 3 green dice if you're taking multiple shots in a round.
Edited by nigeltastic4 minutes ago, Swedge said:so if i have a 3 agility ship is it better probability wise to take a focus or an evade.. and as a follow up at what agility is the crossover point? Thanks...
Each dice has a 2/8 chance of rolling a focus result.
So if you roll 4 green dice the expected outcome is 1 focus result.
Whenever you take an evade, you will be rolling 3 focus results though
Evade is almost always better if you can't afford to take any damage (barring bizarre 6+ Agi situations), but focus will mathematically be better once you reach 5 green dice rolled.
thanks all
It's really not as simple as that... The game scenario needs to come into play. You've said you're a 3 agi ship... but what attack(s) are you facing? And what's your health situation? The most obvious scenarios include being attacked by a homing missile (Focus is better) or having 1 hull and attacked by a 4 dice attack (evade is better - you can actually live).
The "rule of thumb" is if you're rolling 4 or more evade dice, the focus is better, but it becomes a question of variance vs. guaranteed. At 3agi, if you're only rolling for one attack, then the F has a 57.8% chance of rolling at least one evade, a 14% chance of 2, and a 1.5% of 3, obviously leaving a 42% chance of zero. If you're getting attacked twice, that means that you're rolling 6 agility dice, and have a 42% chance of still having the focus for the second attack... Which means that the F now has a 60% chance of a single evade, a 20% chance of 2, a 2% of 3, and still an 18% of zero. Which means on average, a focus will provide you with 1.06 evades... Again though, there's a variance, and you might roll Evade Focus Focus and only need 2 evades, so you're wasting that extra one...