Let' talk about the balance of the three factions in the meta. I want to ponder three questions: How did we get here? How bad is it? and Will it get better?

First let's dispel the notion that the players in the top 16 at worlds selected their lists based off of what was thematic or new. Those top 16 lists were selected because they gave those players the best chance to go far in the tournament. They were selected for the ability to consistently score more points than the other player's list. No one was going to be taken off guard by a merc hunter list, so taking your opponent by surprise did not factor into those selections (except maybe for Shyla).

How did we get here?

The last meta was dominated by spies and troopers. Most of the top lists included Blaise, Stormtroopers, Heavies, Cross Training, Leia, Sabs, etc. Mercs were on the fringe with the Bantha and "Scum good stuff" (HK's/Bossk/Tuskens/Nexus). Mercs had very little access to the amazing spy and trooper cards. I think most would agree the ranking was 1. Imperials 2. Rebels 3. Mercenaries.

Then Jabba's realm hit, giving a third trait, "Hunter", to equal or surpass Troopers and Spies. Mercs got Shyla, Onar, Vinto, Weequays, and Jabba to go along with Greedo, Bossk, HK's, Ig-88, Boba Fett, and Trandoshans all with the Hunter trait. Rebels have alliance rangers and Biv. Imperials have the inquisitor. At this exact point, right after Jabba's hit, and right before the rule changes happened, I think the three factions were pretty balanced. I was personally running Rebels with Luke/eRangers to great effect, winning myself a regional tournament. Imperials were still around and still insanely popular, with elite Jets supplanting Heavy Stormtroopers, and Terro adding a new dimension to Imperial lists. People were still experimenting with Mercenaries, and I don't think I saw any Merc lists in the top 8 at that regional. (There was an imperial Rancor list though)

The "points per figure" rule nerfed 3 figure groups (e.g. elite Stormies and alliance Rangers), and especially nerfed any groups that used "reinforcements". The rule was absolutely necessary, because running a figure away to preserve the whole group's VP's led to some very frustrating strategies. Rebels and Imperials both took significant hits, while Mercenaries remained completely unscathed.

At first the points per figure rule change seemed like it would help Rebels, with their abundance of unique single units, however most of the single units in rebels are either overcosted (Han, Chewie, Diala, Fenn), too fragile (Leia), not mobile enough (Obi), or don't hit hard enough (Davith, Lando). Rebels didn't get nerfed as hard as Imperials, but they were already behind the curve, and the nerf was a setback to their new vanguard units, the elite Rangers.

Now Mercenaries are unarguably the best faction, but..

How bad is it?

15 of the top 16 lists at worlds were Mercenaries. Of those 15, I think all but mine had 2 sets of elite Weequay Pirates (and that's mostly because I was not going to drop another 75 bucks for another copy of JR). Hidden elite Weequays hit just as hard as HK assassin droids. They also have 1 more health and cost 1 less. HK's were the best unit in the Mercenary faction before Jabba's realm dropped, and Weequays beat them in every category. The fact that they can hide themselves dominates close range shooters like elite Sabs and elite Heavy stormtroopers. If there is a unit in the game that could use a slight nerf, I'd say it was the Weequays. (maybe make it so they gain a surge power token instead of hidden, since power tokens are gonna be a thing).

Other than pirates, I don't think Mercenaries are that out of balance. Imperials still have access to spies, and elite Jet troopers are among the strongest units in the game. Stormtroopers and Heavies took a pretty big hit in this meta, but Terro and Dewbacks are very viable. Rebels got Jedi Luke, who can win a game with a well timed Son of Skywalker (which actually sucks if you're a high skill player). Elite Rangers are good, but not overpowered.

I think there are 2 big problems with the meta and neither of them is that Mercs are too strong:

1. Son of Skywalker and On the Lam are too powerful. Where these cards are sitting in your command deck will win or lose you games.
2. Sniper units are significantly better than melee units. Units that can shoot you from across the map should not hit as hard as units that need to get up close.

Both of these problems lead to the "boring" type of play you saw at the highest levels: hiding behind your doors until you have the command cards you need to have a big turn. Both of these problems are much bigger than the very close balance of the factions.

Will it get better?

In a game like this where new figures are being released every 6 months and rules changes coming just as frequently, no faction is going to stay in power for long. However, the droid wave seems to favor the Mercenary faction more than Rebels or Imperials, so if you're getting tired of Mercs, you'll probably have to wait for "Heart of the Empire". I expect HK's to make a slight resurgence and I expect IG-88 to be a viable list centerpiece. I think 0-0-0 adds very little to Imperials for skirmish, but BT-1 should be pretty good. Whether that's enough to push Imperials back into the top of the meta is doubtful. Hera and Chopper seem balanced, but not enough to put Rebels on the same level as Mercs.

I haven't taken a deep look at Heart of the Empire yet, but it seems like there are a lot of big changes coming that will really shake up the meta. I'm really hoping that the brawler buffs will be significant, because sniper units are getting a bit out of hand. I'm sure by this time next year we will have completely forgotten about the 6 months or so that Mercs sat on top of the meta.

Doesn't map rotation have any effect?

20 minutes ago, a1bert said:

Doesn't map rotation have any effect?

The impact of the maps is a bit harder to measure. A mission like Dianoga gives an advantage to certain units, like Luke, but I don't think jabbas map gives any particular unit a huge advantage. Jets are good and a regular smuggler is useful to have but other than that, the map doesn't give anything a huge advantage

I think it's the Hunter cards more than anything. If Empire and Rebels had access to the variety of cheap Hunters that Scum enjoy there would be a more even representation at Worlds. When a 7 point unit can one-shot Jedi Luke, people are going to run it.

I say let them have the Hunter cards and make other cards that raise the level of other traits. No can dispute that the Rebels have a unbiased advantage and access to Force Users, esp. with the new announcement. Force User trait will be a thing, esp. with new cards that are coming with Vader, Maul and Ahsoka.

Droids are about to be a thing as well, which strangely enough are fairly evenly distributed among the factions (Mercs have a bit of a cheat here due to the Jawas)

I say bulk up the Vehicle trait and Heavy Weapon traits in the Imperials and the Force Users in the Rebels and you've got distinct, flavorful factions that can intermix if they want.

I also say this is only a "problem" if you can call it that if you play competitively in a Worlds tournament, you, yourself said you did well with Luke and Rangers at a Regional.

I believe the map is also an issue to be recognized as contributing. Those Weequay die when they are hit in melee, so making Brawlers and guys with Reach more mobile and all of a sudden your Merc players will be whining about how quick they die.

Hide only matters when being shot at.

28 minutes ago, buckero0 said:

I say let them have the Hunter cards and make other cards that raise the level of other traits. No can dispute that the Rebels have a unbiased advantage and access to Force Users, esp. with the new announcement. Force User trait will be a thing, esp. with new cards that are coming with Vader, Maul and Ahsoka.

I believe the map is also an issue to be recognized as contributing. Those Weequay die when they are hit in melee, so making Brawlers and guys with Reach more mobile and all of a sudden your Merc players will be whining about how quick they die.

Hide only matters when being shot at.

I agree, let Mercs have hunters. I don't want all three factions to run the same command cards.

The problem with melee units is they should hit harder than ranged units since they have the penalty of having to close the gap, but weequays hit harder than any similarly costed melee units. Brawlers definitely need some buffs.

I did well at a regional with rebels, but that was before the rule changes that completely changed the meta.

I think the ultra-competitive scene plays a little different than the more casual local tournament which lends credence to why there were so many similar lists. I'm assuming that most of these lists had Hidden and focused EWeequay as it seems that they seem to be the unit everyone is complaining about after Worlds. I guess the Hidden feature and the similarity of the lists made for a defensive (Hidden) and Offensive push over the HK (I've always felt the regular HK is right there if not a little more powerful offensively, but the map selection makes the difference in range less important and the +2 damage is more reliable than a perfect roll from the 4 dice HK)

Do you think the generation of power tokens is a step to fixing the balance ? Or will there continue to be haves, and have nots?

Very nice write up and analysis. Here are my thoughts-

I would start be asking if we're examining the wrong metric when judging whether the factions are "balanced." Clearly, many players at Worlds preferred to use the mercenary faction, and unsurprisingly that faction occupied nearly all of the top 16 spots. This at least shows that players attending worlds preferred the mercenary faction for one reason or another, and I would concede that it shows that players have the belief that it is currently the strongest faction.

That said, I think the real question is whether this means the other factions CAN'T be played at a competitive event, as if this was the case I would argue that currently the game is poorly balanced. I do not think that is the current situation. In my opinion as an Imperial player, it has not been my experience that games against Hunters feel unwinnable, or even unfair. I believe hunter cards are extremely powerful, and therefore can severely punish mistakes - and this gives the false impression that a non-hunter list isn't competitive.

Even after Merc Hunters occupied the top 15/16 spots at Worlds, I would still contend that all three factions have playable lists, and it's likely that there are multiple playable lists within each faction. I think people will have varying opinions on whether Worlds proves the dominance of hunters, but I prefer to stick to a conservative conclusion when the evidence is sparse. In this case, many players brought mercenary hunter lists to Worlds and the end result was that we had many mercenary hunter lists in the finals - a result I would have expected even before the tournament took place. Maybe if the majority of players had run Imperials or Rebels, and Mercenaries still occupied the top 15 spots, I'd be convinced that there's a problem. But in this case I don't think the evidence shows a balance problem.

Just my impression. Good discussion everyone!

Something happened with the release of Jabba's Realm. The power curve shot up at that point - I tell people thinking about getting into the game to buy the Core Set, Jabba's Realm, and ignore everything that came out before. This had to have been purposeful by FFG, as it's not just one card, it's all of them (except the non-elite non-uniques, which suck).

I keep a spreadsheet where I determine the relative efficiency of each unit, to the best of my ability to model them, and all of the best units are in Jabba's Realm or later: Vinto is the top unit, followed by eJets, ePig, eWeeq, eRanger (but they are all very close). The uniques aren't half bad either: lower than the elites, but still better than most other units.

There were very few units on the same level as these, and they all had big negatives: regular Wookiees with their 4 speed and lack of reach were the top with eTuskan, with the same score as Vinto (who is faster and has range). Roughly similar to each other, but lower than the elites in JR, are Obi-Wan, Wampa!, Rebel Troopers with Aim active, eSabs, eStorms, rTrandos, and rNexu. That's assuming they are all lined up against one another and no command cards or other tricks are happening. The JR units, with their 2 traits and the amazing hunter trait, pull even further ahead here.

Below that is all the junk no one uses.

So the ranking became:

Most efficient: Vinto, Wookiees, Tuskans

Pretty efficient: Onar, Jabba's Elites

Playably efficient: Jabba's uniques, all the pre-Jabba stuff people used to play

Not efficient: Everything else

So that explains what we saw at Worlds: everybody was using as many Jabba units as they could.

Coming up, they look like this is the new normal: Hera and Chopper clock in at Vinto level. eJawa is at the pre-Jabba level of a pretty good unit, but it also allows you to bring in Chopper, BT-1, and C3PO. IG88 and Hatred Vader are Jabba's Unique level, BT-1 is Jabba Elite (turns out 4 die attacks are really strong), and 0-0-0 is the weakest of the group at Jabba Unique with a melee attack, etc.

So the only reason Scum are at the top of the power level right now is because scum got the most units in Jabba's Realm, which brought power creep to a whole new level. It'll presumably balance out as the other factions get access to units with this new power level.

I don't see the bantha up there in your efficiency list!

Nice analysis!

A couple of other things to consider:

First, scum has easy access to two of the best rebel units at basically no drawback. Being able to bring in Gideon and/or C-3po for 1 point is very strong. It's the most points efficient damage enhancement and having up to 3 focus (not to mention the cheap, non-committal "holding actions" they add) is part of what allows for such strong damage. If rebels had a reciprocal version of temporary alliance with scum that would probably balance out the two factions nicely (although it might cause the problem that both factions "flavor" overlapped too much.)

The empire faces a couple of different problems. They have no reliable form of gaining focus. Before the rules change they made up for this with quantity and normalized quality of shots. Two groups of eStormtroopers offered the empire six quality shots that came with a built-in reroll, a (at the time) respectable five damage, reinforcement, focus on death, and a reasonably safeguarded nine vps. While not unplayable, the dynamic around eStormies has changed and eJets don't quite offer the same functionality. The empire also doesn't have ranged units that compare to the other factions. eHeavy have decent range, but get terribly out-ranged by alliance rangers and eWees. Combined with eHeavy's slow movement and lack of access to focus, this makes them a clearly inferior long ranged choice. The empire can temp alliance up some scum troops. 2 eWees and 2 eJets is a nice base (and only 28 points) but the fact is still that if scum is sitting across the board there troops are going to be focused and outshooting you. Drawing cards is also a bit harder for the empire. Rule by Fear is an awesome card, but with black market, jabba, r2, and rebel high command the other factions have repeatable draw that helps build up the "big hand of command cards" for deadly alpha strikes or counter attacks.

The good news is that the devs have shown the ability to build a faction up from the ground to have a strong, variable identity. Through twin shadows there were barely enough scum units to field an army, much less one that could stay on the board against the other factions. Now scum is a faction with a strong core identity (smuggler/hunter) with several different styles. Hopefully we've reached a "mission accomplished, for now" point with building up the scum faction and we'll start to see a strengthening of some of the Imp and Rebel identities. The new Vader skirmish upgrade, Ahsoka, and a handful of new force user cards (and hopefully a Han or Chewie skirmish upgrade) suggest that this is a strong possibility.

Tea

Rerolls are great. Stormtroopers had them (when being adjacent) and dominated the meta for a long time. Now they got nerfed at every aspect (new scoring rule, Reinforcements, Jabba, etc.), then Mercs got Weequays, HKs, Gamorreans with rerolls (without being adjacent or anything) ...

Troopers had some strong cards like Grenade, but they needed some skill (positioning or something). I've done 20+ damage with one grenade myself due to bad positioning of my opponent. Hunter Cards like Assassinate are not stronger than that, just more versatile, because it does need no action, no special positioning and can be used by any figure of a hunter squad.

Troopers were strong with Zillo, so the Empire gets no further access to additional cards. Rebels have e.g. R2, but this comes at certain cost. Jabba with Black Market just sits back and generates cards at no real cost.

Focus was always strong, but a little bit restricted (when another Trooper dies, adjacent, LoS). Jabba has no such restrictions.

The single aspects of the hunter lists are not really stronger than anything else, each is just a little bit more versatile. But when you add the little bonus in versatility of every single aspect, you get overpowered lists.

For years, there are cries of overpowered doom with every new release, I told everyone that these cries were wrong (except for 4x4), and most often I was right. In this case there needs something to be done (like with 4x4). The current state of the meta is just bad for the game. Mercs need less skill skill to be played good. Skilled players like DT can make them so great, that no other faction has any chance of winning.

Maybe the upcoming Droids will change that a little bit, but with the Jawa, i think the new Droids (and old Droids with new Cards) are best with Mercs.