Some Dice and Rune Math

By Rattt, in Runewars Miniatures Game

I thought it would be useful to know the stats in a variety of situations, so I just did a quick calculation on the dice and runes.

Notes about these numbers:
The rerolls are presuming maximizing hits are the primary goal, I realize that is not always the case (like Kari farming for surges)
The game has thresholds where a die getting another hit is pointless, while a reroll to get something else makes the most sense (example, a two threat, 1 reroll reanimate archer unit fires at a rune golem with no armor buff. red gets two hits, blue gets one hit. Better off rerolling for the surge, as 6-4 = 1 wound, as does 4-4)


red die:
0.75 average hits, 62.5% chance of one or more hits
0.25 average morale, 25% chance of one morale
0.125 average surge, 12.5% chance of one or more surges

average hits with rerolls:
with one reroll, assuming reroll when no hits: 1.03125
with two rerolls, assuming reroll when no hits: 1.13671875
with two rerolls, being greedy and only accepting a two faced result for the first roll: 1.140625

blue die:
0.5 average hits, 50% chance of one hits
0.5 average surges, 37.5% chance of one or more surges
0.25 average precision, 25% chance of one precision

average hits with rerolls:
with one reroll, assuming reroll when no hits: 0.75
with two rerolls, assuming reroll when no hits: 0.875

white die:
0.75 average hits, 66.6% chance of one or more hits
0.42 average surges, 33.3% chance of one or more surges
0.167 average morale, 16.7% chance of one morale
0.08 average precision, 8.3% chance of one precision

average hits with rerolls:
with one reroll, assuming reroll when no hits or mortal wounds: 0.104 mortal wounds, 1.125 wounds


runes:
50% chance of one stable rune, 50% chance of two stable runes
25% of zero unstable runes, 50% chance of two unstable runes, 25% chance of four unstable runes
12.5% chance of zero natural runes, 37.5% chance of one, 37.5% chance of two, 12.5% of 3 natural runes

Interesting result, a white die is worse for straight damage then a red if you're attacking something where your threat is higher then their armor (mortal wounds don't multiply with threat, so if threat > armor, mortal wounds decrease damage output)

Edited by Rattt

So because I was curious about how the units stacked up, I quickly used these numbers to calculate the damage of the naked formations, not including surge effects. Obviously the Carrion Lancers, potentially Ardus, and Kari all suffer potential damage from a lack of calculating that, and not including upgrades is not a fair comparison, as there are some damage upgrades coming, especially for Spearmen.

Waiqur:

Reanimates (charge or melee):
2x1: 3
2x2: 4.125
3x2: 6.1875
3x3: 6.84375
4x3: 9.125

Reanimate Archers (ranged, presuming maximizing hits (which does reduce chance of blight, obviously):
2x1: 2.5
2x2: 3.5625
3x2: 5.45375

Carrion Lancers (charge/melee taking hit modifier):
1x1: 1.75/2.75
2x1: 3.5/5.5
2x2: 5.0625/7.0625
3x2: 7.594/10.594

Ardus (charge/melee taking hit), presuming reroll upgrade:
0.208 mortal, 4.5 hits/0.208 mortal, 6.5 hits


Daqan:

Spearmen (charge/late hitting melee taking hit):
2x1: 2.5/4.5
2x2: 3.56/5.56
3x2: 5.344/8.344
3x3: 5.719/8.719

Oathsworn Cavalry (charge/late hitting melee taking hit):
2x1: 4/6
2x2: 5.625/7.625
2x3: 6.3125/8.3125
3x3: 9.469/12.469

Rune Golem (brutal 1/brutal 2) (only possible stable rune results are 1 or 2):
1x1: 3/4.5
2x1: 4.5/6
2x2: 6.1875/8.25
3x2: 8.125/10.3125

Kari (melee or ranged) (obviously this fails to capture her shredding other units while in melee):
1x1: 3.5625