Are varied lists the answer to an uncertain meta?

By Karhedron, in X-Wing

This is just a random bit of speculation on my part. Recent waves have seen certain power builds emerge and one of the common themes is that they often involve spamming a particularly powerful ship or ability. U-Boats, tri-Defenders, TLT-spam, Attanni, regen. You name it, lists have been built around it. The meta is in an interesting place right now in several archetypes are jockeying for dominance. Lists that do well at tournaments are often the ones that happen to best counter the meta on a given day.

This smacks slightly of blind luck and I have noticed that consistent winners like Paul Heaver often play lists with different ship types in them. For example, his recent winning list at the Naboo Open was Miranda Doni, Biggs and a Stresshog. I don't count 2 TLTs as spamming in this case since one was locked in the forward position and was mainly to get double Stress.

Lists that spam a particular type of ship or upgrade are always going to be vulnerable to rock-paper-scissors syndrome where they win big against some lists (almost without trying) and lose big against others (almost without a chance). So perhaps the best reliable strategy is to build a flexible list that incorporates elements to deal with as many common meta-threats as possible. Paul Heaver's list is a solid example of this. Something to deal out stress is solid against Attanni and PTL Aces and has become even more valuable since the /x7 nerf in the latest FAQ. Miranda Doni is a rock solid pilot with built-in Regen and the ability to bomb opponents to bits with Sabine on board. Biggs makes sure that these agility 1 ships last long enough to make a dent in the enemy fleet.

I think that as the meta becomes larger and less predictable, varied lists back up by lots of practice will win an increasing number of events. Any spamming list is going to be too vulnerable to a hard-counter to win top tier events reliably.

Yup. Toolboxes are definitely A Thing.

But I think you're probably over-simplifying Mindlink here - it's an EPT, not an archetype, and one of the reasons Parattani works is *because* it has toolbox-y-ness. It has a high-PS hard-hitting ace, a very tough, hard to kill tank, and a support ship with a turret. Similarly, Mana/Fenn/Kavil.

I think Scum toolboxes are an upcoming archetype, but they're often goign to involve Mindlink because it's a good way to enhance their reliability.

X-wing in general hates "well rounded" strategies. It's either more dice, more actions, or more abilities. That said, there are definitely some contender lists coming up that really show a lot of promise, which has happened before but not as consistent as now.

Worlds 2015 saw Heaver's Rebel cocktail as a well rounded all comers list, but that was pretty isolated at the time. Also, it got crushed by wave 8 soon after. Funny enough the thing that crushed it before sits beside it now, at least in my opinion, on the "varied list" heap.

Now we have what I would consider two top tier varied all comer lists:

Heaver Rebels 2.0 and Fenn Torp Scouts. I know those Scouts and Mindlink get so much hate, but the list is varied in that it can congest the board and rely on range 1 attacks or let the Scouts unload their ordnance. It's all depending on the matchup.

Running simulations there are games the Scouts may only unload a single torpedo. They just have so much utility.

It's kind of the opposite, though, and arguably varied lists have been in a big decline since the back end of 2015's 'rebel toolbox'. When focused lists are strong you find that balanced lists don't have a focus and so tend to lose to the focus of whatever their opponents are bringing.

A spammed list IS too vulnerable to a hard counter to win reliably, but a balanced list is vulnerable to everything so your best bet is to go with a focused list and hope to avoid playing against hard counters, or have an unusual approach to those matchups and try to win them.

What Paratanni did was it was a balanced list that had enough raw action economy to fight toe-to-toe with the specialised focus of other lists, which is precisely why it was winning everything.


19 minutes ago, Karhedron said:

The meta is in an interesting place right now in several archetypes are jockeying for dominance.

I always respect your opinion greatly Karhedron. If you are seeing several archetypes, that gives me great hope. I haven't had the pleasure to see "interesting" or "several" archetypes, just a basic tiny few types around here. The Meta has shrunk greatly in type, in my limited observation. I am really looking forward to variety; especially given the many different types of plastic ships and the plethora of cards we now own.

If you can build a list that can handle all meta lists equally well, then yes - as those lists are built to take out common archetypes.

Your list doesn't have to be the new meta defining thing or super janky, it just needs to be able to handle what is out there.

As I see it, the main criteria for such a list is:

- Low variance (arguably high variance can work as well, but that comes with higher risk)

- High and sustained damage, to punch through tokens, upgrades like thrusters, C3P0 & high agi

- Control/anti control (the latter being not as prevalent as it could be in X-Wing), note that typically this means Ion and stress, but control can also come in the form of high PS, Biggs, and/or Conditions

- The ability to handle arc-dodgers, though rarer now, they still see use

Edited by Keffisch
1 hour ago, clanofwolves said:

I always respect your opinion greatly Karhedron. If you are seeing several archetypes, that gives me great hope.

Granted my perception may be an artefact of FFG moving the goalposts several times recently with their FAQs.

1 hour ago, Stay On The Leader said:

It's kind of the opposite, though, and arguably varied lists have been in a big decline since the back end of 2015's 'rebel toolbox'. When focused lists are strong you find that balanced lists don't have a focus and so tend to lose to the focus of whatever their opponents are bringing.

I agree that is a problem and in many ways this issue is also reflected at a ship-level with "all-rounders" like the T65 consistently under-performing against more specialized ships at the same price because specialists are designed to play to their strengths which makes it very hard for all-rounders to exploit their weaknesses. Those specialised ships that are harder to play to their strengths languish in the "non-competitive bin" along with the Tie Punisher.

Agreed. Being a bit good at everything makes you not good enough at anything.

Being well rounded is what I believe led to my success with Kanan/Biggs. My particular setup had EU on Kanan and Stressbot on Biggs, providing me with the option to handle pretty much anything. Arc dodging lists require the boost to keep them in arc (or at least at R2 so I can quad-TLT them with Kanan). It has the PS to deny the ordnance alpha strikes, and the sheer damage output potential to cut through rebel regen. The stressbot helps lock down /x7, Mindlink, and PTL lists. It has the tools and options to handle anything, as really a 73 point ship SHOULD be able to do. But it also means that you have to vary your play style drastically in order to make use of each match up. Some matches I don't even have Biggs protect Kanan because I need him off as a blocker, others it's all about the initial joust... But the ability to handle anything is awesome.

42 minutes ago, Stay On The Leader said:

Agreed. Being a bit good at everything makes you not good enough at anything.

I don't know if I agree. Mainly because how you fly plays such a huge factor in the success of your toolbox list. I regularly fly both Whisper and Soontir together in the same list. And while I shouldn't do good with either depending on initiative, flying them differently means I have wider access to tools to deal with different threats. If I don't have initiative I use Soontir like he was meant to be used, arcdodging those other ps9s. If I do have initiative, I maneuver whisper differently.

1 minute ago, jonnyd said:

I don't know if I agree. Mainly because how you fly plays such a huge factor in the success of your toolbox list. I regularly fly both Whisper and Soontir together in the same list. And while I shouldn't do good with either depending on initiative, flying them differently means I have wider access to tools to deal with different threats. If I don't have initiative I use Soontir like he was meant to be used, arcdodging those other ps9s. If I do have initiative, I maneuver whisper differently.

TBF that's a pretty terrible example that's not really related to what I was saying.

The answer is A-Wings. No seriously.... A-Wings rule. Snap/Juke A wings + fancy flying = profit.

They don't care about stupid Kylo ISYTDS shenanigans

They don't care about Fen because Fen gets snap/juked if he's stupid enough to fly into point blank (and then the A-Wing is evade token and 3 dice to help survive a Fen blast)

They don't care about 4 dice from the Upsilon because they can just get behind it and kill it.

They don't care about Defenders because Juke/Snap Shot no evade token for you if you bump me.

Anyone who thinks the meta is varied and unpredictable right now must not be paying terribly close attention.

Jumpmasters, Mindlink, Fenn, Assajj, Miranda, Biggs, Kanan, Stresshog, RAC, X7s, TIE/SFs, Inquisitor.

There's your meta.

22 minutes ago, Wiredin said:

The answer is A-Wings. No seriously.... A-Wings rule. Snap/Juke A wings + fancy flying = profit.

They don't care about stupid Kylo ISYTDS shenanigans

They don't care about Fen because Fen gets snap/juked if he's stupid enough to fly into point blank (and then the A-Wing is evade token and 3 dice to help survive a Fen blast)

They don't care about 4 dice from the Upsilon because they can just get behind it and kill it.

They don't care about Defenders because Juke/Snap Shot no evade token for you if you bump me.

Umm... ISYTDS kills them basically guaranteed in 2 shots, and when they get blinded in between, they die without shooting.

They oh-so-very-much-so care about Fenn. First he get's the CDP evade, so at most they can do 1 damage, and that's if he rolls only 1 evade (or less) out of 4 dice (51.9%) and the A wing rolls 2 hits (25%) naturally. Not awful odds, but at only 13% chance of doing 1 damage, it's far from good odds. And then they have to eat a 5v3 shot to the face. Not to mention that more than likely he'll already have a F via Attanni, so those odds above are even worse than I said. And it doesn't prevent him from boosting into R1 after his maneuver landed him at R2.

Pseudo fair point, but that could be said about almost every ship except the Lambda. No particular advantage there. PS, they DO care about the other 4 dice throwing ships that are just as, if not more maneuverable (VCX-100 and TIE/p).

Juke/Snap doesn't work if you bump him. So yes, the recent FAQ made it nicer for them to work, but now you have to have one of them bump the 4k, and another one gets to roll 2v3 and then 3v3 with no modifications (except Juke)... Maybe you'll get 2 damage through, now let's just rinse and repeat 2 more times.

2 hours ago, Stay On The Leader said:

Agreed. Being a bit good at everything makes you not good enough at anything.

I don't want to derail too much but I don't think the T-65 is actually a well-rounded ship. To me, it's very similar to, say, the Academy Pilot in what it does, it just has more dice, more hp, and more cost. It's an amped up Z-95. It's very basic, just like the Blue Squadron B-wing, but worse. The plus with the T-65 is one pilot ability.

1 hour ago, Khyros said:

Umm... ISYTDS kills them basically guaranteed in 2 shots, and when they get blinded in between, they die without shooting.

They oh-so-very-much-so care about Fenn. First he get's the CDP evade, so at most they can do 1 damage, and that's if he rolls only 1 evade (or less) out of 4 dice (51.9%) and the A wing rolls 2 hits (25%) naturally. Not awful odds, but at only 13% chance of doing 1 damage, it's far from good odds. And then they have to eat a 5v3 shot to the face. Not to mention that more than likely he'll already have a F via Attanni, so those odds above are even worse than I said. And it doesn't prevent him from boosting into R1 after his maneuver landed him at R2.

Pseudo fair point, but that could be said about almost every ship except the Lambda. No particular advantage there. PS, they DO care about the other 4 dice throwing ships that are just as, if not more maneuverable (VCX-100 and TIE/p).

Juke/Snap doesn't work if you bump him. So yes, the recent FAQ made it nicer for them to work, but now you have to have one of them bump the 4k, and another one gets to roll 2v3 and then 3v3 with no modifications (except Juke)... Maybe you'll get 2 damage through, now let's just rinse and repeat 2 more times.

I've done so well with my Juking A-Wings against the meta heros lately that while I will not say your arguments are invalid, because they are very valid, I do think the A-Wings in a mini swarm is pretty powerful. I haven't done this well since before TLT introduction to be honest... I also run Arvyl so I encourage the bump.

Edited by Wiredin
3 hours ago, Stay On The Leader said:

Agreed. Being a bit good at everything makes you not good enough at anything.

While generally the case, it isn't always the case. As thespaceinvader pointed out, the original Parattanni had three ships that fulfilled different duties. The worked together and supported each other to create a whole more powerful than its parts.

2 hours ago, AllWingsStandyingBy said:

Anyone who thinks the meta is varied and unpredictable right now must not be paying terribly close attention.

Jumpmasters, Mindlink, Fenn, Assajj, Miranda, Biggs, Kanan, Stresshog, RAC, X7s, TIE/SFs, Inquisitor.

There's your meta.

True, but that is till more broad then we have had in the past.

2 hours ago, AllWingsStandyingBy said:

Anyone who thinks the meta is varied and unpredictable right now must not be paying terribly close attention.

Jumpmasters, Mindlink , Fenn , Assajj, Miranda , Biggs , Kanan , Stresshog, RAC, X7s, TIE/SFs, Inquisitor .

There's your meta.

You forgot the still-existing Party Bus, Dash is actually a thing, Omega Leader is strong, there are still folks playing Palp, Falcons are playable (though not top tier), there's Ketsu, ARC-170 are playable (in part because of Stresshog II), and I'm sure if I'd think a bit harder I'd remember others. Heck, even Corran Horn got to 2nd place on Hoth, after he was proclaimed dead because Kylo.

Yes, I'd absolutely call that a varied meta, compared to the ages where Fat Han reigned supreme, and the Whisper Times, and even the Parattanni months we just left behind.

Personally, I'm still waiting for the post-FAQ dust to settle.

Edited by haslo
31 minutes ago, haslo said:

You forgot the still-existing Party Bus, Dash is actually a thing, Omega Leader is strong, there are still folks playing Palp, Falcons are playable (though not top tier), there's Ketsu, ARC-170 are playable (in part because of Stresshog II), and I'm sure if I'd think a bit harder I'd remember others. Heck, even Corran Horn got to 2nd place on Hoth, after he was proclaimed dead because Kylo.

Yes, I'd absolutely call that a varied meta, compared to the ages where Fat Han reigned supreme, and the Whisper Times, and even the Parattanni months we just left behind.

Personally, I'm still waiting for the post-FAQ dust to settle.

There were only two Kylos though that made it to day 2 at Hoth. In general, he didn't show up to Hoth. Plus, I'm pretty sure that Nathan has that same power than Paul has when it comes to just winning no matter what :) .

1 hour ago, SabineKey said:

True, but that is till more broad then we have had in the past.

Entirely depends on how you measure "diverse," as there are also far, far more options than we've had in the past.

Sure, Rebels have somewhere around five truly competitive pilots right now (Biggs, Kanan, Miranda, Gold Squadron, Dash), but that's out of literally dozens and dozens of pilots to choose from. Was diversity really worse in Wave 3 when Rebels only had Han Shoots First, Dual Falcon, and BBXX/BBBB lists doing well? That's Han, Chewie, Lando, Dagger Pilot, Red Pilot, Gold Pilot, and Biggs all seeing successful play out of far, far fewer available pilots from which to choose. That was three quite different somewhat successful Rebel archetypes as far back as Wave 3, when Rebels only had six types of ship to choose from. Rebels still only have about three competitive archetypes (Kanan/Biggs, Miranda/Biggs/Stresshog, Dash/Miranda) yet have over fifteen types of ships now available.

If diversity is merely measured as number of pilots/ships seeing competitive success, I guess it looks okayish. But if diversity is a relative measure of the number of pilots/ships seeing competitive success compared to the number of options that are available at the time, today's diversity is much worse than it's ever been in the game's past.

57 minutes ago, AllWingsStandyingBy said:

Entirely depends on how you measure "diverse," as there are also far, far more options than we've had in the past.

Sure, Rebels have somewhere around five truly competitive pilots right now (Biggs, Kanan, Miranda, Gold Squadron, Dash), but that's out of literally dozens and dozens of pilots to choose from. Was diversity really worse in Wave 3 when Rebels only had Han Shoots First, Dual Falcon, and BBXX/BBBB lists doing well? That's Han, Chewie, Lando, Dagger Pilot, Red Pilot, Gold Pilot, and Biggs all seeing successful play out of far, far fewer available pilots from which to choose. That was three quite different somewhat successful Rebel archetypes as far back as Wave 3, when Rebels only had six types of ship to choose from. Rebels still only have about three competitive archetypes (Kanan/Biggs, Miranda/Biggs/Stresshog, Dash/Miranda) yet have over fifteen types of ships now available.

If diversity is merely measured as number of pilots/ships seeing competitive success, I guess it looks okayish. But if diversity is a relative measure of the number of pilots/ships seeing competitive success compared to the number of options that are available at the time, today's diversity is much worse than it's ever been in the game's past.

Never said it was perfect. And wave three meta had its own problems. We will never have a perfectly representative or diverse meta. That is the nature of things.

Well when you talk about variety in the meta, my answer is that there are two different kinds of variety, micro variety and macro variety.

Now for macro variety, the meta will never have much of that. If every faction has one top build, that is about as good of macro variety you are going to get. You are going to see your Patrani, Palp Aces, Contracted Scouts and TLT Wings. So for Macro Variety the X-wing meta is doing Awesome.

However there is also micro variety. Remember Nationals 2015, yeah a Super Dash list one which wasn't surprising, but what was surprising is that the super dash took Anti-pursuit lasers instead of the standard Engine Upgrade, also instead of pairing up with corran horn, he took a couple of B-wings. That was a huge deviation from the standard netlist build that was on top of all the tournaments. So I would say no matter what list climbs on top of the meta there will always bee micro diversity with the meta.

I think diversity right now comes from no one knowing what the meta is, it's still very up in the air. Yes we saw a couple tournaments since the nerf, but I think the top finishers of them all were very skilled players playing what they knew against people who were all trying to guess what was still good. It's gonna take many more tournaments to nail down what are builds that can win tournaments.

Although I have to say I love this period of refreshing uncertainty. It alone creates a diverse amount of lists at tournaments. I think the nerf really did level the playing field for skill to really matter more, but for just right now, then archetype will start to be more of a factor as the meta fully forms