6 minutes ago, GammonLord said:

Ref. point efficiency, it is't confined to what you see on the card (ie 18 points plus say 38 for Ackbar). Whilst that flotilla may only be 56 points or less depending on Admiral, they have a value way beyond what their points suggest. For example, nail a Mothma lifeboat (a 48 point target) on turn 3 and the rest of fleet lost the very advantage they are built around. It isn't about "on paper" point efficiency.

Of course. I'm referring to total efficiency including opportunity cost for both sides (and therefore the round you kill that flotilla and the location of the kill compared to the rest of the fleet matter)

6 minutes ago, GammonLord said:

Ref. point efficiency, it is't confined to what you see on the card (ie 18 points plus say 38 for Ackbar). Whilst that flotilla may only be 56 points or less depending on Admiral, they have a value way beyond what their points suggest. For example, nail a Mothma lifeboat (a 48 point target) on turn 3 and the rest of fleet lost the very advantage they are built around. It isn't about "on paper" point efficiency.

That's a fair point but if I put Ackbar on my 154pt Mc80 Assault 'Pickle' are you any more likely to kill him and therefore his ability. Admirals are always going to be on the 'safest' option in the fleet. If that's a lifeboat then fine. If that's defensive beast that's fine. If that's Admonition that's fine. If that's a CR-90 in a Mothma MSU list that's hanging out at the back of the fleet that's also fine. I think part of the problem is that some players (and I'm not directing this statement at you GammonLord) assume that an Admiral on a Transport or a Gozanti should be an easy target and that's turned out not to be the case.

35 minutes ago, pt106 said:

It is possible to do for admiral-carrying flotilla, it's possible to do for flotillas that are present in the battle. However, fleeing 18-25 point flotilla is usually not worth pursuing (as the ship that goes for the kill is out of action for the rest of the game).

Splitting the uprights with two one-shots can make this worthwhile if you're positioned to exploit the lost activations, or need to shut down the squadron commands. How practical that is to accomplish is another question that's of course dependent on player skill, list matchups, and so forth, but this isn't just hypothetical. When I'm flying my MC30's, I'm able to at least threaten this in most games involving multiple flotillas (if I determine it's advantageous to do so), and usually pull it off once a tourney or so depending on matchups (if you count CR90/raider kills in the mix too).

I'm not saying you can do it for less than the cost of those flotillas; I'm saying you can net an easy 36+ points with no real risk of losing whatever you sent after them from the attack run on the flotillas themselves if all they're doing is running away.

I don't know, maybe I'm weird in that I really enjoy the layer of strategy that it brings to the table when there is a soft underbelly behind a list's hard shell. I feel like that's part of what the admirals were supposed to be: your point of vulnerability to try and protect however you can. Amplifying flotillas are kind of the same thing in a different form. I enjoy the challenge of facing a pair of Super Death Machines enabled by a couple of pesky civilian boats, and knowing that the whole thing falls apart if I handle it well. I also like having my own vulnerabilities that I have to protect. Hell, one of my favorite moments in Armada recently involved my opponent getting a Raider and two Kittens past my front lines, and trying to puzzle out how to protect Mothma on her lifeboat from his vastly superior force with just my marginally-superior maneuverability.

5 minutes ago, Ardaedhel said:

Splitting the uprights with two one-shots can make this worthwhile if you're positioned to exploit the lost activations, or need to shut down the squadron commands. How practical that is to accomplish is another question that's of course dependent on player skill, list matchups, and so forth, but this isn't just hypothetical.

Of course (and MC30 is one of the best ships to do so). However the scenario I had in mind is two flotillas without admiral flying parallel to the board edge in different direction starting round 1. I think that MC30 will be able to catch one of them not earlier than round 3(I'm not even sure round 3 is possible) and may catch the second one round 6 (or may end up being out of range). Is it a correct assumption based on your experience?

1 hour ago, pt106 said:

Flotillas are not the problem, flotillas fleeing from battle round 1 are.

Not according to FFG - hello Relay!

Just now, Green Knight said:

Not according to FFG - hello Relay!

It's the other way around Hello relay! And now fleeing flotillas ARE a problem.

5 hours ago, Reinholt said:

While I have not been impressed with the analytical chops of this forum before, this is embarrassing. I suggest the exact incorrect conclusion is being drawn. Put differently:

Thankyou for the kind comments from @Ardaedhel and @Snipafist in this thread, that means a lot. This right here is very similar to the comment I have received a warning for.

5 hours ago, Reinholt said:

First, flotillas are essentially an auto-include

Virtually no Regionals winning fleet exists without flotillas, and they are ubiquitous across the board. When a new player begins the game, the next thing they should buy after the core set is a flotilla or, better yet, 3 flotillas, in basically all cases. No, little Timmy, put down the super cool ISD and buy those Gozantis. Deal with it. Consider: in the a majority of Regionals, nobody in the top 4 did not have a flotilla. How would the community feel if this was the MC80, perhaps? Clearly the flotilla itself is driving what else can be played in the meta.

I presume everyone remembers a previous issue we had?

Wave 2 - 65% of top 4 imps had Demolisher
Wave Thor - 65% of top 4 imps had Demolisher
Wave Jive - 58% of top 4 imps had Demolisher

Wave 2 - 20% of top 4 rebels had Yavaris
Wave Thor - 33% of top 4 rebels had Yavaris
Wave Jive - 37% of top 4 rebels had Yavaris

However, the thing that does it for me:

Wave 2 - 52% of top 4 imps had an ISD
Wave Thor - 47% of top 4 imps an ISD
Wave Jive - 75% of top 4 imps an ISD

Conclusion: Thats right little Timmy, See that super cool ISD. Buy it, you can now use it.

5 hours ago, Reinholt said:

Second, activation diversity has fallen dramatically

In wave 2, 47% of Regionals winners ran 2 or 3 activations. In wave 5, that number is 9%. There has been 80% drop in the appearance of 2-3 activation fleets. The top two activation brackets represented less than 2/3rds of fleets in wave 2, and now they represent 4 out of 5 fleets. Fleets have consolidated into 4 or 5 activations. You are a fool to run anything else, unless you want to push even higher.

Standard Deviation

Wave 2 - 0.544216
Wave Thor - 0.494657
Wave Jive - 0.481545

Conclusion - Activation average has risen. Diversity of number of activations has slightly changed.

"Dramatically"

6 hours ago, Reinholt said:

Third, there is less shooting than ever

This ties in with what Steve was just saying above me, and the punch line is that I agree with him. However, one thing to consider is this: when flotillas exist in size, that means a majority of game time is now devoted to either pushing some pokey transport on the back board edge using relay, or drifting in space near the big stuff passing off a token and then waiting.

Average activations has risen from 3.68 to 4.49 between wave 2 and 5. At face value that would mean there are 22% extra ship shots, however, there is indeed some flotilla tax to apply here.

Number of top 4 fleets containing at least 1 flotilla in wave 5 - 90%
Number of top 4 fleets containing at least 2 flotillas in wave 5 - 66%
Number of top 4 fleets containing at least 3 flotillas in wave 5 - 29%

(Frankly the numbers are so similar across the board it doesnt matter that this is top 4 stats)

From this we can estimate that the number of flotillas per fleet is somewhere around 1.85. So the average number of none flotilla ships has gone from 3.68 to 2.64 between wave 2 and wave 5.

This argument has some validity. I would however invite @Blail Blergto explain that whilst combat ships may have dropped squadron numbers have not.

Conclusion: The number of non flotilla ships has dropped by 40% between wave 2 and wave 5. I do ask that this be taken with a pinch of salt, how many people ran non combat ships before flotillas? I know I did.

Overall Conclusion - The analytical chaps in the forum are far from embarassed and an apology is in order.

There is that rumor that theyre going to rule you cant put admirals on flotillas- there went the run away lifeboat.

So that leaves the run-away relay mechanic. Which is approximately a 7.5pt surcharge on your 9 or 8ish point squadron activation. So at this point you are, in general paying the squads point cost again to use it when you want. Sure its an unkillableish activation, but the problem here is more how hard it is to remove an 8 HP squadron......

I think thats the real purpose of snipe- to let you get the shuttles and vcxs before its to late.

I dont mind flotillas, and as an Imp.... that blue die comes in handy. Id love to see a boarding flotilla and a flak flotilla too.

And as for activation diversity shrinking- isnt that GOOD? I mean, if people want to complain about double tapping and activation advantage as a problem then surely the consistency of 4 or 5 activations per fleet is a good thing because it removes that, mostly, from the equation eh?

9 minutes ago, Ginkapo said:

Conclusion: The number of non flotilla ships has dropped by 40% between wave 2 and wave 5. I do ask that this be taken with a pinch of salt, how many people ran non combat ships before flotillas? I know I did.

The interesting statistic to analyze would be the amount of points spent on ships other than flotillas and how it changes between waves.

1 minute ago, pt106 said:

The interesting statistic to analyze would be the amount of points spent on ships other than flotillas and how it changes between waves.

What do you mean?

Total points minus squadron points and flotilla points?

2 minutes ago, pt106 said:

Of course (and MC30 is one of the best ships to do so). However the scenario I had in mind is two flotillas without admiral flying parallel to the board edge in different direction starting round 1. I think that MC30 will be able to catch one of them not earlier than round 3(I'm not even sure round 3 is possible) and may catch the second one round 6 (or may end up being out of range). Is it a correct assumption based on your experience?

I kind of have to get into list- and matchup-specific details to answer that, unfortunately. But the short answer is, I don't really run into that scenario, because I don't chase flotillas.

This hinges on the deployment thing: it's rare that an opponent values those throwaway flotillas so much that they'd rather deploy them after their ISD or whatever, meaning you can probably deploy your hunter on an intercept course from the get-go. From there, orient yourself such that, from the point of intercept, you're bearing back in toward the main fight, and there you've not only intercepted the runners but also positioned yourself to follow-up on the main clash.

If the opponent does drop the ISD before the runaway flotillas, well, they've just tipped their hand and given you advance knowledge for positioning in the main fight, which is probably worth more than the activation delay anyway. So ignore the flotillas and kill the beat stick.

I recognize this all easier said than done, of course, but trying to discuss generalities at this level you really have to just talk strategy, because every tactical implementation comes with a long tail of yeah-buts. If tactics were simple enough to just hash out on a forum post from a phone, it would be a pretty shallow game.

1 minute ago, Ginkapo said:

What do you mean?

Total points minus squadron points and flotilla points?

Exactly.

14 minutes ago, Ginkapo said:

Overall Conclusion - The analytical chaps in the forum are far from embarassed and an apology is in order.

Who are you to use logic and analysis to prove your point? We only accept anecdotal stories.

But really, great analysis.

1 minute ago, pt106 said:

Exactly.

I'm not sure how much will tell you, given that flotillas (BCC specifically) also basically singlehandedly resurrected the squadron game. Meaning you'll definitely see a very dramatic drop, since you'll be incorporating the doubled effects of increased squadron prevalence and a previously-absent category of "flotillas" to your numbers.

I dunno, might be interesting to see, but I don't know how instructive it'd be.

10 minutes ago, pt106 said:

The interesting statistic to analyze would be the amount of points spent on ships other than flotillas and how it changes between waves.

The next iteration of data collection will include this.

5 minutes ago, pt106 said:

The interesting statistic to analyze would be the amount of points spent on ships other than flotillas and how it changes between waves.

Horrendous assumptions follow as we dont have this information nicely:

Average cost of flotillas in a wave 5 fleet - 50pts plus upgrades, lets call it 60pts.

Average cost of squadrons in a top 4 wave 5 list - 89.99pts
Average number of squadrons in a top 4 wave 2 list - 5.8, so approx 81.2pts assuming 14pt average cost.

So average spend outside of squads and flotillas has gone from approx 318.8 to 250.01.

41 minutes ago, Ginkapo said:

Thankyou for the kind comments from @Ardaedhel and @Snipafist in this thread, that means a lot. This right here is very similar to the comment I have received a warning for.

I presume everyone remembers a previous issue we had?

Wave 2 - 65% of top 4 imps had Demolisher
Wave Thor - 65% of top 4 imps had Demolisher
Wave Jive - 58% of top 4 imps had Demolisher

Wave 2 - 20% of top 4 rebels had Yavaris
Wave Thor - 33% of top 4 rebels had Yavaris
Wave Jive - 37% of top 4 rebels had Yavaris

However, the thing that does it for me:

Wave 2 - 52% of top 4 imps had an ISD
Wave Thor - 47% of top 4 imps an ISD
Wave Jive - 75% of top 4 imps an ISD

Conclusion: Thats right little Timmy, See that super cool ISD. Buy it, you can now use it.

Standard Deviation

Wave 2 - 0.544216
Wave Thor - 0.494657
Wave Jive - 0.481545

Conclusion - Activation average has risen. Diversity of number of activations has slightly changed.

"Dramatically"

Average activations has risen from 3.68 to 4.49 between wave 2 and 5. At face value that would mean there are 22% extra ship shots, however, there is indeed some flotilla tax to apply here.

Number of top 4 fleets containing at least 1 flotilla in wave 5 - 90%
Number of top 4 fleets containing at least 2 flotillas in wave 5 - 66%
Number of top 4 fleets containing at least 3 flotillas in wave 5 - 29%

(Frankly the numbers are so similar across the board it doesnt matter that this is top 4 stats)

From this we can estimate that the number of flotillas per fleet is somewhere around 1.85. So the average number of none flotilla ships has gone from 3.68 to 2.64 between wave 2 and wave 5.

This argument has some validity. I would however invite @Blail Blergto explain that whilst combat ships may have dropped squadron numbers have not.

Conclusion: The number of non flotilla ships has dropped by 40% between wave 2 and wave 5. I do ask that this be taken with a pinch of salt, how many people ran non combat ships before flotillas? I know I did.

Overall Conclusion - The analytical chaps in the forum are far from embarassed and an apology is in order.

What exactly were you looking for?

And were you looking for this in a kind manner, or in an attempt to continually aggravate people?

1 minute ago, Blail Blerg said:

What exactly were you looking for?

And were you looking for this in a kind manner, or in an attempt to continually aggravate people?

The stats on how number of squadrons has risen over the waves, and thus number of squadron shots has risen.

No antagonising there, I've been unduly harsh on you in the past and I am sorry. In this case, its just you seem to have these stats at your fingertips and I dont.

1 minute ago, Ginkapo said:

The stats on how number of squadrons has risen over the waves, and thus number of squadron shots has risen.

No antagonising there, I've been unduly harsh on you in the past and I am sorry. In this case, its just you seem to have these stats at your fingertips and I dont.

Okay. Thanks for the clarification. Funny enough, I don't have them copy-paste ready.

Alright then.

Average squadrons across waves:

Average wave 2 - 5.4
Average wave Thor - 5.7
Average wave Jive - 5.8

We dont have spread data for wave 2.

That graph is really hard to read. Why increments of 3.5 1.5 etc?

Is that all data? Do you have it to compare for top4?

--

Is this still really wave Jive? Has Moffy J really saved us? All the VSDs were culled apparently.

2 minutes ago, Blail Blerg said:

That graph is really hard to read. Why increments of 3.5 1.5 etc?

Is that all data? Do you have it to compare for top4?

--

Is this still really wave Jive? Has Moffy J really saved us? All the VSDs were culled apparently.

Thats top 4

My excel keeps trying to relabel 1-2 as 1st of Feb unfortunately.

10 minutes ago, Ginkapo said:

Thats top 4

My excel keeps trying to relabel 1-2 as 1st of Feb unfortunately.

As an American, that sounds like your computer is malfunctioning. Perhaps it has something to do with being on the wrong side of the pond? It should be correcting to Jan. 2nd.

So I'm curious what the flotilla count is for the bottom part of the regionals data. We keep looking at the top 4/8, and that's only part of the picture.

If high flotilla count (3+) is dominant in the bottom, it could indicate over compensation doesn't work. Might be worth comparing flotilla number to the size of the fleet.

If no flotilla is in the bottom, it could indicate flotillas should be an auto include in fleets.

If the flotilla count is similar to the top, well, I guess that means the amount of flotillas doesn't matter. Skill/luck/match ups play a more important factor.

Just a thought.

5 hours ago, Ginkapo said:

Horrendous assumptions follow as we dont have this information nicely:

Average cost of flotillas in a wave 5 fleet - 50pts plus upgrades, lets call it 60pts.

Average cost of squadrons in a top 4 wave 5 list - 89.99pts
Average number of squadrons in a top 4 wave 2 list - 5.8, so approx 81.2pts assuming 14pt average cost.

So average spend outside of squads and flotillas has gone from approx 318.8 to 250.01.

Pretty close. I ran Wave 5 data for Top-4 regional fleets and got the following (this doesn't take into account any upgrades on flotillas as I had no way to get it from available data)

Points spent on Squads : Avg 87.93, 5% 0 or less, 25% 55 or less, 50% 106 or less, 75% 130 or less 95% 134 or less
Points spent on Flotillas : Avg 36.73, 5% 0 or less, 25% 23 or less, 50% 36 or less, 75% 54 or less 95% 69 or less
Bids : Avg 5.068, 5% 0 or less, 25% 0 or less, 50% 2 or less, 75% 9 or less 95% 15 or less
Admiral point cost : Avg 28.1, 5% 20 or less, 25% 24 or less, 50% 30 or less, 75% 30 or less 95% 38 or less
Points spent on non-flotilla ships : Avg 242.2, 5% 175 or less, 25% 201 or less, 50% 234 or less, 75% 278 or less 95% 319 or less
Avg number of non-flotilla ships : Avg 2.661, 5% 1 or less, 25% 2 or less, 50% 3 or less, 75% 3 or less 95% 4 or less
Avg points spent on a non-flotilla ship : Avg 100.0, 5% 64 or less, 25% 77 or less, 50% 90 or less, 75% 109 or less 95% 173 or less

Speculative assumption: maybe the potential problem is not flotillas per se, but the ability to run (and activate) a 100+ points of squadrons while maintaining 5+ activations and keeping support ships safe?