7 hits, one shot, guaranteed (~95%)

By Redavhtrad, in X-Wing Squad Lists

so, as the title suggests, this is a fun build that I've come up with. It lacks all consistency and survivability, and anything else that makes a list good for a tournament, but it's good fun. Basically, I was looking for a way to abuse the overpriced and hard to use advanced proton torpedoes. you know, the range 1, 5 dice torpedo that changes three blanks to focuses (foci? focus results?) well... here it is. the "delete a ship in one shot because I can" list

and yes, I know it's not quite guaranteed, but in order to not get all 7 hits, 5 of the 6 dice would have to be blank. now the chance of a blank result (25% chance) happening 5 out of 6 times (83.3% of the results) is rather minuscule. (someone better than me at mathwing, please, figure this out for me...i'm too far removed from my statistics class, my best shot in the dark is >5% of the time 5 of 6 dice show up blank) Fenn adding a one die and one hit result at range one becomes extraordinarily scary in this situation.

Fenn Rau (28) Advanced Proton Torpedoes, Fearlessness, Guidance Chips, Concord Dawn Protector (36)

Jakku Gunrunner (15) Targeting Synchronizer, Spacetug Tractor Array, K4 security droid (23)

OR

Manaroo (27) PTL, K4 security droid, unhinged astromech (34) (you could also use a torpedo loadout on manaroo for the r3 alpha)

If you want to get really cheesy you can add in a cluster N'Dru for 24 points and another ordinance carrier to round out the alpha strike. If you want to actually win a few games you can add another ace and a blocker (old teroch and a z hunter?) or throw in asajj for the stress and giggles.

Edited by Redavhtrad

Yup. That's gross.

Only problem is quadjumpers don't have the target lock action..

4 minutes ago, Zehl34 said:

Only problem is quadjumpers don't have the target lock action..

That's rather problematic.... manaroo it is

Edited by Redavhtrad

Good luck making it work, I'm sure it'll be worth it when you inevitably 1 shot a ship :D

1 hour ago, Redavhtrad said:

That's rather problematic.... manaroo it is

Actually it is not problematic. K4 grants you TL even if you don't have it on your action bar.

1 hour ago, Redavhtrad said:

That's rather problematic.... manaroo it is

Or Targeting Computer.

On 3/15/2017 at 4:10 AM, Redavhtrad said:

(someone better than me at mathwing, please, figure this out for me...i'm too far removed from my statistics class, my best shot in the dark is >5% of the time 5 of 6 dice show up blank)

Really simple to do in this game. 8 sided die means there are 8 possible results (yeah only 4 different ones, but eight overall). Easiest way to find the result is take the number of results to the power of the number of dice rolled, divided by the total possible results to the power of the number of dice rolled. Confused? Here's what it looks like:

2 (number of blank results) ^ 6 (number of dice rolled) / 8 (total results) ^ 6 (number of dice rolled)

2^6/8^6 = 64/262,144 or 1/4096 or 0.02%

That's for all blanks, if you are looking for 5 dice it's 1/1024 or 0.1%

So yes, if you played 1000 games and got this attack off in all 1000 games, you might blank enough to not do 7 hits once. That one time you would only do 6. And there is the extremely remote possibility that you might only do 5.

So, possible to do less than 7 hits, yes. Likely to see it? No.

1 hour ago, Raven19528 said:

Really simple to do in this game. 8 sided die means there are 8 possible results (yeah only 4 different ones, but eight overall). Easiest way to find the result is take the number of results to the power of the number of dice rolled, divided by the total possible results to the power of the number of dice rolled. Confused? Here's what it looks like:

2 (number of blank results) ^ 6 (number of dice rolled) / 8 (total results) ^ 6 (number of dice rolled)

2^6/8^6 = 64/262,144 or 1/4096 or 0.02%

That's for all blanks, if you are looking for 5 dice it's 1/1024 or 0.1%

So yes, if you played 1000 games and got this attack off in all 1000 games, you might blank enough to not do 7 hits once. That one time you would only do 6. And there is the extremely remote possibility that you might only do 5.

So, possible to do less than 7 hits, yes. Likely to see it? No.

Never tell me the odds!

Because, invariably, those fickle dice will somehow screw you over every time :P

But, legitimately looks like a fun list. I used to run an APT Fenn/Teroch/Manaroo list back in the day, but everyone was underloaded, and Manaroo seems to have taken up nerf-herding, do I'd stick with the Quadjumper, and slot in a heavy ship like Asaaj. If you have the points left, toss the Tractor Array on the quad, just for that one opportunity where you toss 7 hits at a Defender with -1 agility.

The real trouble with this will get getting Fenn focussed, TLed, and at range 1 of a ship you wouldn't be better off just... shooting with 5 well modified dice. The Gunrunner is goign to struggle to get that TL in the first engagement and he's going to be a hugely high priority target thereafter.

I've thought about APT Fenn a lot and the answer is always '5 points for 1 extra die, once? Is it really worth it'?

I know it's not JUST an extra die, but if you get focus/TL on Fenn at range 1, you're getting a 90-ish% chance of 4+ hits anyway.

5 hours ago, Kreen said:

Never tell me the odds!

Because, invariably, those fickle dice will somehow screw you over every time :P

But, legitimately looks like a fun list. I used to run an APT Fenn/Teroch/Manaroo list back in the day, but everyone was underloaded, and Manaroo seems to have taken up nerf-herding, do I'd stick with the Quadjumper, and slot in a heavy ship like Asaaj. If you have the points left, toss the Tractor Array on the quad, just for that one opportunity where you toss 7 hits at a Defender with -1 agility.

Only the green dice are Fickle. Everyone knows that!

But yeah, that APT is going to hurt. Presuming you get the TL+F stack, you're rolling 6 dice modified by a F... One of those is going to be turned to a crit via GC, 3 of them will be turned from blank to focus and then to hit by spending the F. So in order to NOT have the full 7 hit/crit results, you'd have to roll FIVE+ blanks on the initial roll. The chances of that are .25 ^ 5 * .75 * 6 = .4394% for 1 hit, and .25 ^ 6 = .0244 for 0 hits. Which means that 99.54% of the time, you are scoring SEVEN hits, at PS9.

I can't help but think of Trinity from the Matrix saying "Dodge this! (pulls trigger for a point blank head shot to an agent)." It's a little bit less forgiving now that Manny is R1 only, but you can certainly make it work.

8 hours ago, thespaceinvader said:

The real trouble with this will get getting Fenn focussed, TLed, and at range 1 of a ship you wouldn't be better off just... shooting with 5 well modified dice. The Gunrunner is goign to struggle to get that TL in the first engagement and he's going to be a hugely high priority target thereafter.

I've thought about APT Fenn a lot and the answer is always '5 points for 1 extra die, once? Is it really worth it'?

I know it's not JUST an extra die, but if you get focus/TL on Fenn at range 1, you're getting a 90-ish% chance of 4+ hits anyway.

90ish% chance of 4+ hits is solid. but let's look at stealth device soontir fel, one of the notoriously hardest ships to hit in the game.

you get r1 in arc. solid. now shoot.

you get your expected result. 4 hits

soontir rolls his 4 greens, has focus/evade. gets expected result, 3 evade/focus results.

soontir spends tokens and/or palps. 4 evade results, as statistically expected.

****. no hit

even if you got your best result, 5 hits, it's still an evadable shot for palp aces (the most extreme example)

now consider APT.

99.43572975629854ish% chance to land 6 hits and a crit

55% chance to have at least 2 crits

soontir gets expected 4 evade results

dead ship

back it up

soontir gets perfect evade results with stealth device and an evade token

2 hits, 1-2 of which are crits, go through

dead or severely crippled ship

APT is more than 6 points for 1 extra die.

It's 6 points for an EXTRA 3 expected hit results and 1.5 expected crit results

that's like popping 3 crack shots on the same double modded HLC shot.

that's plowing through dengar's shields in one shot and landing a couple crits before your other ships shoot

that being said it's still a super gimmicky tactic that is so much fun to pull off.

2 hours ago, Redavhtrad said:

90ish% chance of 4+ hits is solid. but let's look at stealth device soontir fel, one of the notoriously hardest ships to hit in the game.

you get r1 in arc. solid. now shoot.

you get your expected result. 4 hits

soontir rolls his 4 greens, has focus/evade. gets expected result, 3 evade/focus results.

soontir spends tokens and/or palps. 4 evade results, as statistically expected.

****. no hit

even if you got your best result, 5 hits, it's still an evadable shot for palp aces (the most extreme example)

now consider APT.

99.43572975629854ish% chance to land 6 hits and a crit

55% chance to have at least 2 crits

soontir gets expected 4 evade results

dead ship

back it up

soontir gets perfect evade results with stealth device and an evade token

2 hits, 1-2 of which are crits, go through

dead or severely crippled ship

APT is more than 6 points for 1 extra die.

It's 6 points for an EXTRA 3 expected hit results and 1.5 expected crit results

that's like popping 3 crack shots on the same double modded HLC shot.

that's plowing through dengar's shields in one shot and landing a couple crits before your other ships shoot

that being said it's still a super gimmicky tactic that is so much fun to pull off.

This man is right on the money; I saw an APT Fenn chuck seven hits into Palp SD Ryad.

She took two damage. Two. Had he not out out that sheer amount of damage, she would have kept doing that to him for the whole game.

Soontir isn't really in the meta anyway. And the answer is that you made him spend ALL his defensive abilities on surviving Fenn. Now you shoot him with the rest of your list.

It's also 6 points and *losing Autothrusters and Mindlink*.

It's by no means bad, but... well, there's a reason that not a single list that's done well in a major tournament has spend the points for APT on Fenn.

2 hours ago, thespaceinvader said:

Soontir isn't really in the meta anyway.

Why must you hurt me like this? :(