So, several units in the Core have the ability to trigger special effects off of Surges when attacking. I thought I would compile a list of the probabilities of this occuring for each unit. Thanks to @ubal for the dice and rune faces!
Daqan
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Spearmen
: 2S for 1 Inspiration token
- Dice: Red (1:8 for 1 surge) + Blue (2:8 for 1 surge, 1:8 for two surges)
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Probabilities:
- 1S:R + 1S:B = 2/64 = 3.125%
- 0S:R + 2S:B = 7/64 = 10.9375%
- 1S:R + 2S:B = 1/64 = 1.5625% (wasted surge)
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TOTAL = 15.625% chance of getting an Inspiration token
- You only real chance of this triggering if you roll the double surge from the blue die.
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Oathsworn Cavalry:
2S for 1 Inspiration token
- Dice: 2x Red (1:8 for 1 surge) + Blue (2:8 for 1 surge, 1:8 for two surges)
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Probabilities:
- 1S:R + 1S:R + 0S:B = 1/512 = 0.1953125%
- 1S:R + 0S:R + 1S:B = 14/512 = 2.734375%
- 0S:R + 1S:R + 1S:B = 14/512 = 2.734375%
- 0S:R + 0S:R + 2S:B = 49/512 = 9.5703125%
- 1S:R + 0S:R + 2S:B = 7/512 = 1.3671875% (wasted surge)
- 0S:R + 1S:R + 2S:B = 7/512 = 1.3671875% (wasted surge)
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TOTAL = 17.96875% chance of getting an Inspiration token
- Same case as spearmen, you are trying for the double surge from the blue die
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Kari:
1+S to make a ranged attack on a nearby enemy unit.
- Dice: White (3:12 for 1 surge, 1:12 for two surges) + Blue (2:8 for 1 surge, 1:8 for two surges)
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Probabilities:
- 1S:W + 0S:B = 15/96 = 15.625%
- 2S:W + 0S:B = 5/96 = 5.208333%
- 0S:W + 1S:B = 16/96 = 16.666%
- 1S:W + 1S:B = 6/96 = 6.25%
- 2S:W + 1S:B = 2/96 = 2.08333%
- 0S:W + 2S:B = 5/96 = 5.208333%
- 1S:W + 2S:B = 3/96 = 3.125%
- 2S:W + 2S:B = 1/96 = 1.041666%
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Damage Results: 55.208333% chance of triggering for some damage
- 2 dmg: 32.291666%
- 4 dmg: 18.75%
- 6 dmg: 5.208333%
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8 dmg: 1.041666%
- So 1 out of 100 times you throw a dagger at a Rune Golem or Ardus with a Defense buff, Kari will one-shot them.
Waiqar
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Reanimate Archers
: 2S to inflict 1 Blight token
- Dice: Red (1:8 for 1 surge) + Blue (2:8 for 1 surge, 1:8 for two surges)
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Probabilities:
- 1S:R + 1S:B = 2/64 = 3.125%
- 0S:R + 2S:B = 7/64 = 10.9375%
- 1S:R + 2S:B = 1/64 = 1.5625% (wasted surge)
-
TOTAL = 15.625% chance of inflicting a Blight token
- You only real chance of this triggering if you roll the double surge from the blue die.
-
Carrion Lancers
: 1S to add 1 Mortal Strike if the target has Blight token
- Dice: Red (1:8 for 1 surge) + 2x Blue (2:8 for 1 surge, 1:8 for two surges)
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Probabilities:
- 0S:R + 0S:B + 1S:B =7*5*2= 70/512= 13.671875% 1
- 0S:R + 0S:B + 2S:B =7*5*1= 35/512= 6.8359375% 2
- 0S:R + 1S:B + 0S:B =7*2*5= 70/512= 13.671875% 1
- 0S:R + 1S:B + 1S:B =7*2*2= 28/512= 5.46875% 2
- 0S:R + 1S:B + 2S:B =7*2*1= 14/512= 2.734375% 3
- 0S:R + 2S:B + 0S:B =7*1*5= 35/512= 6.8359375% 2
- 0S:R + 2S:B + 1S:B =7*1*2= 14/512= 2.734375% 3
- 0S:R + 2S:B + 2S:B =7*1*1= 7/512= 1.3671875% 4
- 1S:R + 0S:B + 0S:B = 1*5*5= 25/512= 4.8828125% 1
- 1S:R + 0S:B + 1S:B =1*5*2= 10/512= 1.953125% 2
- 1S:R + 0S:B + 2S:B =1*5*1= 5/512= 0.9765625% 3
- 1S:R + 1S:B + 0S:B =1*2*5= 10/512= 1.953125% 2
- 1S:R + 1S:B + 1S:B =1*2*2= 4/512= 0.78125% 3
- 1S:R + 1S:B + 2S:B =1*2*1= 2/512= 0.390625% 4
- 1S:R + 2S:B + 0S:B =1*1*5= 5/512= 0.9765625% 3
- 1S:R + 2S:B + 1S:B =1*1*2= 2/512= 0.390625% 4
- 1S:R + 2S:B + 2S:B =1*1*1= 1/512= 0.1953125% 5
- Damage Results: 65.8203125 % chance of triggering for at least one Mortal Strike
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Ardus
: 2S to inflict 1 Blight token OR 1S to add 1 Mortal Strike if the target has a blight token
- Dice: 2x White (3:12 for 1 surge, 1:12 for two surges)
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Probabilities:
- 0S:W + 1S:W= 8*3= 24/144= 16.666% 1
- 0S:W + 2S:W= 8*1= 8/144= 5.555% 2
- 1S:W + 0S:W= 3*8= 24/144= 16.666% 1
- 1S:W + 1S:W= 3*3= 9/144= 6.25% 2
- 1S:W + 2S:W= 3*1= 3/144= 2.08333% 3
- 2S:W + 0S:W= 1*8= 8/144= 5.555% 2
- 2S:W + 1S:W= 1*3= 3/144= 2.08333% 3
- 2S:W + 2S:W= 1*1= 1/144= 0.69444% 4
- Mortal Strike Chance: 55.555 % chance of adding at least one Mortal Strike
- OR Blight Token 22.222 % Chance
- OR Blight and Mortal Strike 4.86104 % chance
Edits: Added Waiqar stats! Fixed stupid rules errors!
Edited by drkpnthr