So, several units in the Core have the ability to trigger special effects off of Surges when attacking. I thought I would compile a list of the probabilities of this occuring for each unit. Thanks to @ubal for the dice and rune faces!

Daqan

• Spearmen : 2S for 1 Inspiration token
  • Dice: Red (1:8 for 1 surge) + Blue (2:8 for 1 surge, 1:8 for two surges)
  • Probabilities:
    • 1S:R + 1S:B = 2/64 = 3.125%
    • 0S:R + 2S:B = 7/64 = 10.9375%
    • 1S:R + 2S:B = 1/64 = 1.5625% (wasted surge)
  • TOTAL = 15.625% chance of getting an Inspiration token
    • You only real chance of this triggering if you roll the double surge from the blue die.
• Oathsworn Cavalry: 2S for 1 Inspiration token
  • Dice: 2x Red (1:8 for 1 surge) + Blue (2:8 for 1 surge, 1:8 for two surges)
  • Probabilities:
    • 1S:R + 1S:R + 0S:B = 1/512 = 0.1953125%
    • 1S:R + 0S:R + 1S:B = 14/512 = 2.734375%
    • 0S:R + 1S:R + 1S:B = 14/512 = 2.734375%
    • 0S:R + 0S:R + 2S:B = 49/512 = 9.5703125%
    • 1S:R + 0S:R + 2S:B = 7/512 = 1.3671875% (wasted surge)
    • 0S:R + 1S:R + 2S:B = 7/512 = 1.3671875% (wasted surge)
  • TOTAL = 17.96875% chance of getting an Inspiration token
    • Same case as spearmen, you are trying for the double surge from the blue die
• Kari: 1+S to make a ranged attack on a nearby enemy unit.
  • Dice: White (3:12 for 1 surge, 1:12 for two surges) + Blue (2:8 for 1 surge, 1:8 for two surges)
  • Probabilities:
    • 1S:W + 0S:B = 15/96 = 15.625%
    • 2S:W + 0S:B = 5/96 = 5.208333%
    • 0S:W + 1S:B = 16/96 = 16.666%
    • 1S:W + 1S:B = 6/96 = 6.25%
    • 2S:W + 1S:B = 2/96 = 2.08333%
    • 0S:W + 2S:B = 5/96 = 5.208333%
    • 1S:W + 2S:B = 3/96 = 3.125%
    • 2S:W + 2S:B = 1/96 = 1.041666%
  • Damage Results: 55.208333% chance of triggering for some damage
    • 2 dmg: 32.291666%
    • 4 dmg: 18.75%
    • 6 dmg: 5.208333%
    • 8 dmg: 1.041666%
      • So 1 out of 100 times you throw a dagger at a Rune Golem or Ardus with a Defense buff, Kari will one-shot them.

Waiqar

• Reanimate Archers : 2S to inflict 1 Blight token
  • Dice: Red (1:8 for 1 surge) + Blue (2:8 for 1 surge, 1:8 for two surges)
  • Probabilities:
    • 1S:R + 1S:B = 2/64 = 3.125%
    • 0S:R + 2S:B = 7/64 = 10.9375%
    • 1S:R + 2S:B = 1/64 = 1.5625% (wasted surge)
  • TOTAL = 15.625% chance of inflicting a Blight token
    • You only real chance of this triggering if you roll the double surge from the blue die.
• Carrion Lancers : 1S to add 1 Mortal Strike if the target has Blight token
  • Dice: Red (1:8 for 1 surge) + 2x Blue (2:8 for 1 surge, 1:8 for two surges)
  • Probabilities:
    • 0S:R + 0S:B + 1S:B =7*5*2= 70/512= 13.671875% 1
    • 0S:R + 0S:B + 2S:B =7*5*1= 35/512= 6.8359375% 2
    • 0S:R + 1S:B + 0S:B =7*2*5= 70/512= 13.671875% 1
    • 0S:R + 1S:B + 1S:B =7*2*2= 28/512= 5.46875% 2
    • 0S:R + 1S:B + 2S:B =7*2*1= 14/512= 2.734375% 3
    • 0S:R + 2S:B + 0S:B =7*1*5= 35/512= 6.8359375% 2
    • 0S:R + 2S:B + 1S:B =7*1*2= 14/512= 2.734375% 3
    • 0S:R + 2S:B + 2S:B =7*1*1= 7/512= 1.3671875% 4
    • 1S:R + 0S:B + 0S:B = 1*5*5= 25/512= 4.8828125% 1
    • 1S:R + 0S:B + 1S:B =1*5*2= 10/512= 1.953125% 2
    • 1S:R + 0S:B + 2S:B =1*5*1= 5/512= 0.9765625% 3
    • 1S:R + 1S:B + 0S:B =1*2*5= 10/512= 1.953125% 2
    • 1S:R + 1S:B + 1S:B =1*2*2= 4/512= 0.78125% 3
    • 1S:R + 1S:B + 2S:B =1*2*1= 2/512= 0.390625% 4
    • 1S:R + 2S:B + 0S:B =1*1*5= 5/512= 0.9765625% 3
    • 1S:R + 2S:B + 1S:B =1*1*2= 2/512= 0.390625% 4
    • 1S:R + 2S:B + 2S:B =1*1*1= 1/512= 0.1953125% 5
  • Damage Results: 65.8203125 % chance of triggering for at least one Mortal Strike
• Ardus : 2S to inflict 1 Blight token OR 1S to add 1 Mortal Strike if the target has a blight token
  • Dice: 2x White (3:12 for 1 surge, 1:12 for two surges)
  • Probabilities:
    • 0S:W + 1S:W= 8*3= 24/144= 16.666% 1
    • 0S:W + 2S:W= 8*1= 8/144= 5.555% 2
    • 1S:W + 0S:W= 3*8= 24/144= 16.666% 1
    • 1S:W + 1S:W= 3*3= 9/144= 6.25% 2
    • 1S:W + 2S:W= 3*1= 3/144= 2.08333% 3
    • 2S:W + 0S:W= 1*8= 8/144= 5.555% 2
    • 2S:W + 1S:W= 1*3= 3/144= 2.08333% 3
    • 2S:W + 2S:W= 1*1= 1/144= 0.69444% 4
  • Mortal Strike Chance: 55.555 % chance of adding at least one Mortal Strike
  • OR Blight Token 22.222 % Chance
  • OR Blight and Mortal Strike 4.86104 % chance

Edits: Added Waiqar stats! Fixed stupid rules errors!

Are you a statistician or a huge fan of minis games ? Or both ? Because when this is about math, we know who to call for help ^^ Huge thanks for your job @drkpnthr

By the way, this is Ub u l, not Ubal that you want to quote !

Doesn't Kari have a surge on her dial? Additionally, how do rerolls affect these numbers? Just seems like the need for even more math and more tables.

@drkpnthr you're a stat machine! I have really appreciated your posts on these topics. Re rolling blanks would raise the chances by single digits only I think, but I'm no good with math...at all.

Do we know if there is a vanilla surge ability like in descent available to everyone?

14 minutes ago, Dosiere said:

Do we know if there is a vanilla surge ability like in descent available to everyone?

Not yet, and it isn't on the reference card so I doubt it especially since with Descent and IA surges are used to recover fatigue/strain and/or heal which would drag thos game out too long I think.

I do believe you should just be calculating combinations that generate inspiration tokens and not factoring in blank die. You shouldn't have less of generating 1 surge from a blue/red die combo on oathsworn calvary then you do on spearmen.
Also with rerolls the question really becomes do you roll a surge on red die? If you do, you can fish for an inspiration token with a reroll on your blue.

No @Obscene the null results are for one of the red dice to be a surge and the other not surge. I'm accounting for all the possible dice combos rather than just the raw probability calculations especially because I want people to see the combos that give inspiration and surges for when they think of rerolls. The best dice to reroll for surges or accuracy is white > blue> red. For damage or mortal blow it is white > red> blue

Thanks for crunching the stats, @drkpnthr !

I thought the inspiration token had a fairly low probability of coming through. It's almost more like "no hit" result with a consolation prize.

I'm hoping that there are upgrade cards that do something more inspiring with a higher probability of coming about.

Carrion lancer 65.82% to get at least 1 surge! Make sure those blight tokens are applied.

Yeah I'm going to try to add the Waiqar soon. Note that this doesn't include surge results from their dials. Kari for instance can add a surge results to her attack, dramatically increasing her bonus ranged attack...

25 minutes ago, drkpnthr said:

Yeah I'm going to try to add the Waiqar soon. Note that this doesn't include surge results from their dials. Kari for instance can add a surge results to her attack, dramatically increasing her bonus ranged attack...

Don't forget Lord Hawthorne 2 surges on red white. Also have fun with Ankuar 2 surges on 2 or 4 white dice.

good job!

Added Waiqar. I will add the +surge modifier from dial probabilities when I have time this weekend or next week. The Waiqar probabilities got me thinking about how these surge abilities will work. If I roll a lot of surges (see Carrion Lancer and Ardus) or if I add surges from attack modifiers (Kari and Reanimate Archers), can I trigger the ability multiple times? When I activate the Carrion Lancer ability, does it remove a token? Can it be triggered multiple times from one blight token, or do you need an equal number of blight tokens? If it just takes one token and doesn't remove it to get multiple Mortal Strikes, then Carrion Lancer and Ardus will be absolute DPS beasts in combat. I think surely it will only be able to trigger once per attack, but the Waiqar player in me is going to be turning to this page first when I get ahold of the rulebook. (Kari will trigger multiple times because her ability specifically says S+ and mentions increasing damage for each surge spent).

21 hours ago, drkpnthr said:

Added Waiqar. I will add the +surge modifier from dial probabilities when I have time this weekend or next week. The Waiqar probabilities got me thinking about how these surge abilities will work. If I roll a lot of surges (see Carrion Lancer and Ardus) or if I add surges from attack modifiers (Kari and Reanimate Archers), can I trigger the ability multiple times? When I activate the Carrion Lancer ability, does it remove a token? Can it be triggered multiple times from one blight token, or do you need an equal number of blight tokens? If it just takes one token and doesn't remove it to get multiple Mortal Strikes, then Carrion Lancer and Ardus will be absolute DPS beasts in combat. I think surely it will only be able to trigger once per attack, but the Waiqar player in me is going to be turning to this page first when I get ahold of the rulebook. (Kari will trigger multiple times because her ability specifically says S+ and mentions increasing damage for each surge spent).

The Carrion Lancer ability doesn't remove the token, it just needs one on the enemy to cause a Mortal Wound. I haven't been able to find any info about how often you can use surge abilities. Potentially, A Carrion Lancer attack could result in five surges (1 on red and 2 on each blue) and deal out 5 Mortal Strikes. Fantastic on high defense units but weak against mooks. That sort of balances it out since the image of the Carrion Lancer is that it's the natural foil of the Golems.

The Surge+ on Kari just means that she can spend any number of Surges on it. The actual quote from the reference card on Surge+ is "{Surge Symbol}+ can have any number of {Surge} spent."

I could see both sides on whether or not to allow for unlimited uses of a surge ability, but I have a feeling it will be once per attack.

Hopefully the surge abilities on ardus don't count as being simultanious meaning they don't work off of each other.

6 minutes ago, Orcdruid said:

Hopefully the surge abilities on ardus don't count as being simultanious meaning they don't work off of each other.

Not sure if I follow that. I could see if people thought he could kept multiple Carrion Lancers near him to try and 'stack' a bunch of the mortal strike surge abilities but I would think FFG would put something either in the rulebook or in the FAQ that you couldn't.

15 minutes ago, Kubernes said:

Not sure if I follow that. I could see if people thought he could kept multiple Carrion Lancers near him to try and 'stack' a bunch of the mortal strike surge abilities but I would think FFG would put something either in the rulebook or in the FAQ that you couldn't.

What I mean is a timing thing. If Ardus is in range of a lancer and some archers he could, with 3 surges trigger both abilities off one attack. So if they rule it the same as xwing he could put a blight token on the unit then use that token to trigger mortal strike.

11 minutes ago, Orcdruid said:

What I mean is a timing thing. If Ardus is in range of a lancer and some archers he could, with 3 surges trigger both abilities off one attack. So if they rule it the same as xwing he could put a blight token on the unit then use that token to trigger mortal strike.

I suspect they would simply allow the timing for that. Most likely there's just going to be some window for a player to spend surges and most likely for an immediate effect like adding that blight counter or getting that extra hit. From a power perspective, it's not that powerful but pretty useful. A normal roll isn't really going to get you three surges unless you get that 1/12 chance for the surge/surge face but you're missing out on a hit (essentially two hits with Ardus' brutal passive).

I'm thinking it will be like xwing, where you can use both but can choose the timing. Blight is going to such a neat mechanism

2 hours ago, Kubernes said:

I suspect they would simply allow the timing for that. Most likely there's just going to be some window for a player to spend surges and most likely for an immediate effect like adding that blight counter or getting that extra hit. From a power perspective, it's not that powerful but pretty useful. A normal roll isn't really going to get you three surges unless you get that 1/12 chance for the surge/surge face but you're missing out on a hit (essentially two hits with Ardus' brutal passive).

If you want to get out more surges from him put on ancient technique for prcise 1. Also If you are looking for mortal strikes any damage you get is likely to be absorbed by armor anyway. The best damage roll on whites is double hits, if you land both thats 4hits with brutal its 8 or 2 wounds to a rune golem.Good for killing 1 rune golem but what about a formation? If you can get a blight token on it and deal mortal strikes every turn for just one surge all the better you've now got a 50% of dealing one wound to the golem formation per die without rerolls.

Mortal strikes ignore armor. So against say a rune golem with 4/2, a mortal strike would be equivalent to 4 wounds. A Carrion Lancer could roll one surges and get a Mortal Strike (32% chance) and cause one wound, which is the equivalent of rolling its maximum of 4 damage (0.2% chance) for one wounds. Like you said, this works best 1v1, which is where Carrion Lancers are going to shine, assuming that Mortal Strikes will not multiplied by Brutal or ranks. When you start adding ranks, I could see this being a problem, though Carrion Lancers are going to be tougher to kill than I think people are assuming. A Rune Golem has 4 armor, 2 wounds, with a potential bonus of 0-4 Defense while attacking (I see this as you will pick +4 whenever its available, maybe +2 when you need it, and go for a Rally when its not), so you could potentially be facing a 6-tray of Rune Golems on a turn where they effectively have 8 Defense, so its like they have 16 wounds per model. The Carrion Lancers would effectively have an end run around this with Mortal Strikes, but MS does not stack with formations. I think that Carrion Lancers will be very powerful in the early game, but like I said on the maneuver combo thread, their dial is very screwy, and I think a lot of people will march them into death's jaws and disparage them because they do not maneuver like cavalry even if they want them to be. The other issue is attack timing. Both RG and CL attack on initiative 5, so it comes down to which player has advantage. If the RG goes first, he does devastating wounds and has tons of +Def, if CL goes first it gets in a couple MS and potentially prevents RG from getting rank bonus to damage or rerolls.

36 minutes ago, drkpnthr said:

Mortal strikes ignore armor. So against say a rune golem with 4/2, a mortal strike would be equivalent to 4 wounds. A Carrion Lancer could roll two surges and get a Mortal Strike (32% chance) and cause one wound, which is the equivalent of rolling its maximum of 4 damage (0.2% chance) for one wounds.

The carrion lancer only needs one surge to trigger the mortal strike.

Woops sorry typo, I originally was going to bother with how many wounds/MS it was going to take to kill a rune golem, and decided to take that out, but apparently missed the two.

I'll add this: apparently from the unboxing video in the 'Unboxingish video' thread, you can trigger surge ability as many times as you have surges. You can find it in the video at 22:30.

42 minutes ago, Kubernes said:

I'll add this: apparently from the unboxing video in the 'Unboxingish video' thread, you can trigger surge ability as many times as you have surges. You can find it in the video at 22:30.

They haven't read the rules yet either.