Prediction Based on Current Buisiness Model

By dpb1298, in Star Wars: Destiny

29 minutes ago, ozmodon said:

It's listed under Ranger. Just Google top board game companies. FFG's X-Wings just happens to be number one miniature game in sales pushing out Warhammer 40k. It's all there if you look

40K also has 20 years worth of models in peoples' hands, with a thriving market in trades and exchanges. I'm no fan of GW, but current sales are not the only measure of a system's popularity.

If nothing else, let's talk again when X-wing makes it to the ten-year mark. The system is already creaking under the weight of variety they're trying to cram into it, the sales model makes it almost as expensive as 40K to get into (the per-model cost of Heaver's winning list last year would make GW proud), and it's going to be almost impossible for them to release a second edition to do more than band-aid the problems. X-wing's a solid game, and obviously very popular, but its structure is not one which will support longevity.

39 minutes ago, GamerGuy1984 said:

Well many of us arnt "The sky is falling" like many like to say. We simply state that the decissions and track record doesnt have us optimistic. Will I be happy if Destiny pulls a 180 and comes back to rival any of the top 3, Pokemon Yugioh or god willing Magic? Yes decidedly so. But I wont be shocked if the opposite happens.

When I state that I think the game is going wrong its not a straight up kill off but a shortening of its life span. If all went well Destiny should of had about a 8 year lifespan, or 2025. With the current choices I feel its closer to a 5 year lifespan, or 2022. And if they keep up the problems and dont fix things I could see Destiny being gone in 2-3 years, or 2019-2020.

Thank you for this clarifying answer. You have given me food for thought.

13 minutes ago, Buhallin said:

40K also has 20 years worth of models in peoples' hands, with a thriving market in trades and exchanges. I'm no fan of GW, but current sales are not the only measure of a system's popularity.

If nothing else, let's talk again when X-wing makes it to the ten-year mark. The system is already creaking under the weight of variety they're trying to cram into it, the sales model makes it almost as expensive as 40K to get into (the per-model cost of Heaver's winning list last year would make GW proud), and it's going to be almost impossible for them to release a second edition to do more than band-aid the problems. X-wing's a solid game, and obviously very popular, but its structure is not one which will support longevity.

I have 5000 dollar's worth of Tyranids collecting dust because of their newer rules

Edited by ozmodon
17 minutes ago, ozmodon said:

I have 5000 dollar's worth of Tyranids collecting dust because of their newer rules

And you cant find people to play 6th? Or 5th, or 4th, or 3rd?

Point is you can still ise the old models so you dont have to buy new. Meaning new sales arnt THE deciding factor of a game being good.

19 hours ago, ozmodon said:

It's listed under Ranger. Just Google top board game companies. FFG's X-Wings just happens to be number one miniature game in sales pushing out Warhammer 40k. It's all there if you look

I don't see any data or sources listed there, and I don't know that site from Adam. For all I know it's just a ranking of popularity based on user votes. Also, 7th place does not make FFG "number one," and there's zero correlation between Monopoly sales and their ability to design and produce a CCG.

Edited by WonderWAAAGH
1 hour ago, WonderWAAAGH said:

I don't see any data or sources listed there, and I don't know that site from Adam. For all I know it's just a ranking of popularity based on user votes. Also, 7th places does not make FFG "number one," and there's zero correlation between Monopoly sales and their ability to design and produce a

Edited by ozmodon

It's okay, I didn't really expect you to understand.

2 minutes ago, ozmodon said:

Go figure

33 minutes ago, ozmodon said:

It's okay, I didn't really expect you to understand.

There's nothing to understand beyond the fact that you made a statement you can't backup.

1 hour ago, WonderWAAAGH said:

There's nothing to understand beyond the fact that you made a statement you can't backup.

Because you can't use the Internet it's somehow my fault. Gotcha!

Don't you have a bomb shelter to get back to before the world ends

Edited by ozmodon

Chill guys. Don't make unsubstantiated claims and then complain and name-call when someone points out that they are unsubstantiated, and try to see where folks are going from. Anyone who has played GW knows the importance of good rules and caring for your player base, and how vital they are to a game's health and playerbase. GW has alienated so many people (myself included), but they don't care cause they still make money by sucking new people in before alienating them too and then rinse and repeating. Those of us who've been there and love FFG don't want it to be a victim of its own success. If they get too carried away by profits and abandon the people who keep them afloat through terrible decisions, they will hit a slump like GW recently has. Those of us who've seen this stuff know how easily it can happen. That's why we're trying to point out the warning signs now.

Edited by dpb1298

Honestly, the rules component isn't really that essential for Destiny's health right now. They're solid enough for where they need to be (This isn't 40K, it's a relatively simply CCG), they just need to make sure things don't get out of hand by producing so many sets rapid fire and trying to introduce new stuff just to keep it fresh.

The thing to worry about is the state of the player base. Right now it's not looking good.

Edited by dpb1298

Some people really shouldn't have children.

I'm not sure who is the number 1 game maker, but I'm going to make a guess at Hasbro since they pretty much own everything Asmodee does not. FFG is still very successful regardless of their ranking.

6 hours ago, ozmodon said:

Because you can't use the Internet it's somehow my fault. Gotcha!

Don't you have a bomb shelter to get back to before the world ends

Keep it classy please.

17 hours ago, GamerGuy1984 said:

And you cant find people to play 6th? Or 5th, or 4th, or 3rd?

Point is you can still ise the old models so you dont have to buy new. Meaning new sales arnt THE deciding factor of a game being good.

Not to go OT, but you can't always use the old models in WH/40K. Once you glue and assemble them a certain way, if the rules for that method of assembly (weapon selection, etc), get changed, then you're stuck with models that aren't legal.

And it's not so easy to find people that want to play the prior addition of a current game.

Time to bring this conversation back to see how out of hand it will get this time. As per the OT, I think FFG is taking steps to avoid my predicted eventuality. If they do print more pre-release kits for launch, that would certainly be a good sign that supply issues are being combated.