I apologize if you hate probability calculations in wargaming, and if so please look away.

I am fascinated by the Reanimate's Regeneration ability, and really want to build a cool army that maximizes this feature, so I keep looking into a lot of the variables of how it functions. I decided to sit down and calculate the probabilities of the different runes and how that will affect regeneration. I will try to run the numbers on the other core set units fed by runes later and add them to this post.

@Olah apparently beat me to the %s already with some great visuals here but I hope the impact on the abilities is useful to you all still.

Probabilities

• Green Runes
  • 0 Green Runes: 12.5%
  • 1 Green Rune: 37.5%
  • 2 Green Runes: 37.5%
  • 3 Green Runes: 12.5%
  • WEIGHTED AVERAGE: 1.5 Green runes / round
• Blue Runes
  • 1 Blue Rune: 50%
  • 2 Blue Runes: 50%
  • WEIGHTED AVERAGE: 1.5 Blue runes / round
• Red Runes
  • 0 Red Runes: 25%
  • 2 Red Runes: 50%
  • 4 Red Runes: 25%
  • WEIGHTED AVERAGE: 2 Red runes / round

Waiqar Units & Upgrades

• Reanimates (Waiqar Infantry Unit)
  • Green Runes: Regeneration (Passive)
    • Maximums: At most, 3 out of 5 rune tokens can show a Green rune, which means that if you have a tray with one guy left you can regen it back to a full tray with this result (you can only regenerate if there is an existing tray with one or more models in it, and you must remove empty trays when the models are eliminated).
    • Minimums: At least, 0 out of 5 rune tokens can show a Green rune, which means on some turns you will have no regen.
    • Summary: On average, you should get 1-2 models regenerating each round. Its fair to assume then that an ideal damage absorbtion ratio for a 'tarpit' style reanimate formation would be some way to try to get 1-2, 5-6, or 9-10 wounds in a round. Upgrades that let you mitigate and control this damage will be useful.

Daqan Units & Upgrades

• Rune Golems (Daqan Siege Unit)
  • Blue Runes: Brutal (Passive), Stun Special Ability(Activation - White), Defense Boost (Stance - Red)
    • Maximums: At most, 2 out of 5 rune tokens can show a Blue rune, which means that at most you will get threat +2 for your rune golems, and if you activate their special ability, generate two stun tokens.
    • Minimums: At least, 1 out of 5 rune tokens can show a Blue rune, which means you ALWAYS get at least +1 threat for your rune golems, can inflict at least one stun token with their special ability, and always gets at least +1 defense after he attacks or uses his special ability to stun.
    • Summary: The fact that you always get at least one blue rune means that the golem has a very steady passive damage boost that half of the time is even better. He can deal out stun tokens a lot, and sometimes even double tokens, and can boost his defense pretty high after attacking.
  • Red Runes: Move on Initiative 4 (Activation - Blue)
    • Maximums: At most, 2 out of 5 rune tokens can show Red-Red runes, which means you will have 4 Red activations.
    • Minimums: At least, 0 out of 5 rune tokens can show a Red rune, which means you could have no Red activations.
    • Summary: You can usually charge 2 on initiative 4, but sometimes you can't and sometimes you can charge 4 if you get lucky.
• Front Line Rune Golem (Upgrade: Siege + Model, Infantry)
  • Maximums: At most, 2 out of 5 rune tokens can show a Blue rune, which means that at most you will get threat +2 with this upgrade.
  • Minimums: At least, 1 out of 5 rune tokens can show a Blue rune, which means you ALWAYS get at least +1 threat with this upgrade
  • Summary: This is probably the best upgrade in the core set for its point cost. Giving up a tray to effectively gain 1.5 threat to spearmen seems like a great deal.
• Uncontrolled Geomancer (Upgrade: Officer + Model, Infantry)
  • Maximums: At most, 2 out of 5 rune tokens can show a two Red runes each, which means that at most you will get range 4.
  • Minimums: At least, 0 out of 5 rune tokens can show any Red runes, which means means that you only damage your own unit.
  • Summary: Note that this unit would never be able to kill itself with its 2 Defense.
• Greyhaven Channeler (Upgrade: Officer + Model, Infantry, Unique)
  • Rather than using runes, this unit allows you to recast 2 runes by exhausting it. I have assumed that you would always recast as many runes as possible to get better results when possible. I have assumed you are trying to get a specific rune type. If I have time later I will calculate the chances if actively trying to avoid a specific rune type (like if you face an army with tons of Fire Runes)
  • Green Runes
    • 0 Green Runes: 3.125%
    • 1 Green Rune: 15.625%
    • 2 Green Runes: 40.625%
    • 3 Green Runes: 40.625%
    • WEIGHTED AVERAGE: 2.1875 Green runes / round (45.8333% increase)
  • Blue Runes
    • 1 Blue Rune: 25%
    • 2 Blue Runes: 75%
    • WEIGHTED AVERAGE: 1.75 Blue runes / round (16.666% increase)
  • Red Runes
    • 0 Red Runes: 6.25%
    • 2 Red Runes: 37.5%
    • 4 Red Runes: 56.25%
    • WEIGHTED AVERAGE: 3 Red runes / round (50% increase)
  • Summary: Holy cow this upgrade rocks at 6 points! If you are planning any kind of army that will use a lot of red or green runes, this is a great upgrade. Not so useful for armies relying on a lot of blues except to deny your enemy his runes.

General Upgrades -

• Fire Rune (Upgrade: Equipment)
  • Maximums: At most, 2 out of 5 rune tokens can show a Red rune, which means that you can deal 2 damage per hit.
  • Minimums: At least, 0 out of 5 rune tokens can show a Red rune, which means that you deal no damage.
  • Dice Probabilities:
    • 1 hit: 4/8 = 50% for 2 or 4 damage
    • 2 hits: 1/8 = 12.5% for 4 or 8 damage
  • Summary: This will typically deal 2/4 damage if you have 1 Red rune (50% of the time)
• Wind Rune
  • Maximums: At most, 3 out of 5 rune tokens can show a Green rune, which means that at most you can shift 3 (and then reform).
  • Minimums: At least, 0 out of 5 rune tokens can show a Green rune, which means you can't shift (but still reform).
  • Summary: This is probably the best upgrade in the core set for its point cost. Giving up a tray to effectively gain 1.5 threat to spearmen seems like a great deal.

Edit: Added blue and red runes. Added weighted averages and a link to @Olah 's great visual post. Added @Orcdruid 's great observations about the Rune Golem's dial. Reformatted for the Rune probabilities and unit/upgrade effects separately. Adding upgrades... lost all my work with a crash, rebuilding as I can.

I thought that the blue was for the rune golem movement and then the red was for their stun/brutal. I guess I had those mixed up. In any event, do you know the probability of the movement rune on them? Or am I just really confused on the runes?

EDIT: yup you're right on the colors; my bad. But still if you could put the reds on here that would be cool

community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/234491-runic-maths/

You are late to the party bud.

1 hour ago, Orcdruid said:

community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/234491-runic-maths/

You are late to the party bud.

I knew I had read something about that before ;-)

@Orcdruid Ah, excellent. I hadn't seen anything yet about the actual percentages, and wanted to share my math on the -effect- of the runes on the units in the core set. I am more interested on the idea that each Reanimate will regenerate 1.5 models per round, Rune golems will get x1.5 threat and can add +1.5 stun, and FLRG effectively will add x1.5 threat to spearmen each round.

So a full 9-tray formation of spearmen with FLRG can roll RB with 2 rerolls, and could potentially get 3 hits x (3 trays + Brutal 2 with 2 Blue runes (50% of the time)) for a total of 15 maximum damage. Thats enough to wipe out 3.75 trays of Spearmen/Reanimates

34 minutes ago, drkpnthr said:

So a full 9-tray formation of spearmen with FLRG can roll RB with 2 rerolls, and could potentially get 3 hits x (3 trays + Brutal 2 with 2 Blue runes (50% of the time)) for a total of 15 maximum damage. Thats enough to wipe out 3.75 trays of Spearmen/Reanimates

don't forget a potential Kari dice for another hit and one more from the dial makes for a 5 max hit, times 5 threat for a total damage of 25 hits, or 6.25 trays of reanimates.

2 points on the rune golem

1.) the upgrade also doubles the health of the tray it replaces. 8 hits to kill instead of 4.

2.) the golems has a move at initiative 4 of speed(red runes) that can get the charge modifier. It's normal move of 2 is at initiative 8 by the way.

The upgrade does not change the movement of the spearmen. It would use their dial while in their formation.

17 hours ago, drkpnthr said:

The upgrade does not change the movement of the spearmen. It would use their dial while in their formation.

No but you said the red runes don't have a current purpose and they do.

Aha! I understand what you mean now that I look at the rune golem dial. I completely misunderstood, thanks @Orcdruid ! So does that mean they can only use that charge when there is a red rune in play, and that the distance of the charge is determined by the number of red runes? So 2, 4, or can't use that charge? And the other thing you said was about the stance that increases defense by the number of blue runes? I'll update right now.

Ok, its bugging me a bit that the runes are color coded, but they couldn't reuse the color on the cards or on the dials. I may end up going in on the dials and white-outing them to white and then painting them with a metallic red/green/blue just to keep it making sense... maybe the cards too.

Has anyone found any other dials or upgrades that I have missed? I think there is at least one in the waiqar command expansion but they haven't given us a clear picture of the card to know what it does.

On 2/18/2017 at 3:41 PM, drkpnthr said:

Aha! I understand what you mean now that I look at the rune golem dial. I completely misunderstood, thanks @Orcdruid ! So does that mean they can only use that charge when there is a red rune in play, and that the distance of the charge is determined by the number of red runes? So 2, 4, or can't use that charge? And the other thing you said was about the stance that increases defense by the number of blue runes? I'll update right now.

Sorry for taking so long to respond. You can use the charge modifier with the golem's regular init 8 move. It is just nice that you can add it to the init 4 move as well because of the possibility of speed 4, also its great if you know they can't move before init 4 because you don't have to guess where they are going to be.

Added probabilities for Uncontrolled Geomancer, Greyhaven Channeler, Fire Rune, and Wind Rune. Greyhaven is a beast at 6 pts!

I'm almost positive one of the green rune tokens has a green rune on both sides, making the minimum 1. I can check my set later today.

Per @Ubul 's post...

Quote

Rune 1: blank / red-red

Rune 2: green / red-red

Rune 3: blank / green

Rune 4: green / blue

Rune 5: blue / blue

You're probably thinking of the Blue/Blue which has a minimum of 1.

Also, check out @Oloh 's thread here: