Been kicking this around in my head and what to see what others think on this concept.

As fleet comps decide objectives more than anything else everything that follows is targeted at carrier builds. I’m defining a carrier build as directly activation squadrons with the majority of the fleet’s firepower coming from squadrons. Squadrons is love, squadrons is life.

Here are the big deciders for when I pick first or second.

1) Can they throw a large enough alpha strike to harm my fleet

2) Must I play a game of activate after my opponent

3) Will their objectives be incredibly unfavorable for me?

4) Do I get to first last? As in do I have 5 activations to their 4.

5) Other considerations and unknowns

Can they throw a large enough alpha strike to harm my fleet

Since your squadrons are the key to winning the game if you lose them the game follows quickly thereafter. From this cause and effect look at what your opponent is going to field. If you see flight controllers and a horde of defenders/x-wings/really viscous other squadrons that will eat your squadrons for breakfast two or three at a time I’ll take going first. Going first lets me tangle their attack force with my blockers and makes them waste precious activations on moving intel to free up the strike. An activation of 4 is a lot less threatening than 6. *An alpha strike list that I’ve faced was: Stele, Vader, Mauler, Jendon, Defender, Defender from an ISD1 expanded hanger bays flight controllers w/ token* Keep in mind that the same also applies to your carriers. If you get one blown off the field before it can activate you’re down that many squadron activations and that much further in the hole.

Do I need to activate my key ship after theirs

Since Armada is shoot than move getting your opponent to enter your engagement basket is preferred (understatement). The most common way of doing this is to activate your big killy thing after their big baddie goes. Thus, you get your damage in since they moved up to your firing range, but you don’t get shot in return. To illustrate lets say Person 1 and 2 both have an ISD with both players just outside long range speed 3 and facing each other. The one that goes first won’t get to shoot as it has nothing in range. If the Player 1 goes first it’ll end up eating Player 2’s attack and won’t be happy. The reverse is true as well. Extrapolating this to squadrons if there is something that will ruin your day by going before it, go second. In direct regards to squads if you have to activate your squadrons into their aa fire, give wedge and dutch free shots at you second is going to be your friend.

Are their likely objectives REALLY REALLY bad for me

Figuring this out requires some conditional thinking. Lots of small ships that go fast expect blockade run, opening salvo, or most wanted. Big ships with huge dice pools advanced gunnery, fire lanes, and a blue they are very comfortable with. When predicting objectives think of what would really give you a hard time or let your opponent amass enough points that even if you do win you’ll still lose. As a carrier fleet the ones you like the least will be the ones rewarding ship fire. In general lots of ships or dice that are opposing you the more you want to go second. Be very wary of objectives that will pump out unexpected damage or points on you. If you spot high dice pool ships with a strategic or two then you’re going to want second.

Do I get to double tap them

Demolishers love this and so do you. Getting a Yavaris with some happy puppy b-wings to go last and then go first will turn any ship into dust. An ISD with last > first activating its squadrons will clear off the opposing fighter wing in those two activations alone, and probably net a ship or two in the process. Simple and straight forward double taps good.

All the other little things that exist

Does your opponent have something that will turn the game on it’s head like Rieekan where things go zombie on you? Are there tells of objectives you aren’t familiar with? Are you in a position where you have a set goal you must perform to. A set goal is as long as I don’t lose I’ll win the tournament, or my opponent likes to bunker in the corner so I have to draw him out. Depending on the “others” you may want to go second. Playing into an unfamiliar objective can throw you off your game and force mistakes. Going first when all you need is a win puts the onus on you to score points opening the door for mistakes. Trying to alpha strike a Rieekan ship off the field tends to not work so well *BRAINZZZZZ*.

When in doubt go second make your opponent pick into the objectives you like and are most familiar with. Give yourself that comfort advantage of knowing how to best play what you know. In the final determination look towards what wins you the game for going first or second (biggest cop out ever). If the majority of these say go second I’ll go second. If the majority say go first then go first. When in doubt I’ll go second as reacting to your opponent will give you control of the battle field.

As I have one planned for objective choice and deployment let me know what you think of this and what to change in the formatting, and I really want to hear your opinions on when you go first or second.

Well thought out and explained. Thank you for this.

I like how thought out this is.

I've been all over the board on bids and first/second choices. So there's a long history there that is worth explaining.

One approach I'd take is to look at some of the overall trend-lines in list match-ups and then ask how that affects bids and choices for first and second.

1. You mentioned alpha-striking in the original post. In the lists that I've seen be successful, I've seen some pretty consistent bids for first if a player intends to alpha-strike. That's because if you are built to alpha strike, you need some reasonable chance of actually pulling it off. Knowing that a skilled player like Mythics is at 396, if you plan an alpha strike as part of your list, you'd better be under 396.

2. Last/Firsting is enormously powerful. We've had plenty of posts on activation counts in other thread, and although I don't think we need to knee-jerk to five activations, if you are going to go under five activations, you need a bid for first and a reliable plan for playing first player against most lists. Throughout the wave 4 regional season I ran a 4 activation Madine list with a bid at various points in the mid 380s. In the end, it did just fine against a couple of lists that both out-activated it and out-bid it, but I could really get it to sing on first player, and that advantage only grew throughout the game as I removed tons of small activations. Knowing that last/firsting is so powerful, that absolutely has to effect both the list construction itself and the overall bid.

3. I'd say the overall advice in the above post, while specifically designed to support carrier builds, really reflects some general knowledge about any list. We're at the point where there are some specific advantages to first player, and some specific advantages to second player. The best lists have good plans for both first and second player. From there, its a matter of how meaningful the choice is to you and therefore how much of a bid you can fit. I do like the thought that Mythics has put into both his bid and whether to go first or second off of it.

4. In my experience, bids tend to fall into three categories. A. A player really wants first and has bid meaningful for it. This tends to be anywhere from 378 to the mid 380s. It also comes down to how bad you want to outbid other lists that are also bidding for first, and if you're that low on your bid, you're also giving up quite a bit of utility in your fleet to achieve that bid. B. A player just doesn't care and has bid about as reasonably close to 400 as possible. This seems to reflect a significant number of fleets out there. C. A sometimes crazy and random bid that really doesn't reflect the fleet, often the player is either new or experimenting. Not too many fleets come in category A, and you might as well give them first and play it out from there. Virtually nothing can be done about C, and the fleet usually has some other inefficiencies in its design as well, so you can often just outplay them anyway. Having a small meaningful bid can be extremely important in the absolute mass of players that fall into category B.

Does it not depend on the fleet? I run first with a tricked out mc80. Engage on my terms everytime.

You missed;

Can I take out one of his ships with a single activation?