We all complain about bad dice but yesterday I was ready to give dice and all a long acetone soak. In a 125 point matchup, not only did I get tabled, but scored a total of 4 hits. Two on shields and two on hull. I couldn't even take out an Academy Tie! I'm beginning to think that the card game WAR is the way to go. No dice!

The scenario was part of the Galactic Civil War. I flew against 3 PS8 Defenders (x7) and 2 Academy Ties with 2 PS6 Arcs, 2 PS6 A-wings and a PS2 B-wing. I know I was outclassed and definitely outflown but the final insult was the dice. No eyeballs from Tailgunner after multiple attacks. Target Lock was useless because of the Evade/Focus even when I rolled well.

I'd like to know if anyone else has had such a one sided matchup. Misery loves company and all that.

6 minutes ago, Stoneface said:

We all complain about bad dice but yesterday I was ready to give dice and all a long acetone soak. In a 125 point matchup, not only did I get tabled, but scored a total of 4 hits. Two on shields and two on hull. I couldn't even take out an Academy Tie! I'm beginning to think that the card game WAR is the way to go. No dice!

The scenario was part of the Galactic Civil War. I flew against 3 PS8 Defenders (x7) and 2 Academy Ties with 2 PS6 Arcs, 2 PS6 A-wings and a PS2 B-wing. I know I was outclassed and definitely outflown but the final insult was the dice. No eyeballs from Tailgunner after multiple attacks. Target Lock was useless because of the Evade/Focus even when I rolled well .

I'd like to know if anyone else has had such a one sided matchup. Misery loves company and all that.

I'm confused. Are you complaining about bad dice, or are you complaining that 2 attack dice can't hurt x7 Defenders? Seems like you're saying you knew your list wasn't a good match up, you didn't play well, and when you did roll well, the x7 token stack was impenetrable. It also seems like you were shooting out the rear from your ARCs plenty of times, so combined with the A wings, 4 of your 5 ships were shooting with just 2 dice, against targets that often have an evade token... Not a good strategy.

17 minutes ago, Stoneface said:

We all complain about bad dice but yesterday I was ready to give dice and all a long acetone soak. In a 125 point matchup, not only did I get tabled, but scored a total of 4 hits. Two on shields and two on hull. I couldn't even take out an Academy Tie! I'm beginning to think that the card game WAR is the way to go. No dice!

The scenario was part of the Galactic Civil War. I flew against 3 PS8 Defenders (x7) and 2 Academy Ties with 2 PS6 Arcs, 2 PS6 A-wings and a PS2 B-wing. I know I was outclassed and definitely outflown but the final insult was the dice. No eyeballs from Tailgunner after multiple attacks. Target Lock was useless because of the Evade/Focus even when I rolled well.

I'd like to know if anyone else has had such a one sided matchup. Misery loves company and all that.

I had a game with Crack Swarm where I didn't even roll enough hits to use my Crack Shots.

19 minutes ago, Khyros said:

I'm confused. Are you complaining about bad dice, or are you complaining that 2 attack dice can't hurt x7 Defenders? Seems like you're saying you knew your list wasn't a good match up, you didn't play well, and when you did roll well, the x7 token stack was impenetrable. It also seems like you were shooting out the rear from your ARCs plenty of times, so combined with the A wings, 4 of your 5 ships were shooting with just 2 dice, against targets that often have an evade token... Not a good strategy.

I re-read my post and it is kind of confusing. The rear arc comment was about zero focus results after multiple attacks. Not necessarily against the Defenders. Academy Pilots are supposed to be canon fodder and I couldn't even take out one of them with multiple 3 dice attacks. With target locks I'd reroll blanks to get blanks. I think that during the entire game I only had 3 or 4, three dice attack rolls after rerolls and modifying.

Had a fun tournie where the first rpund ketsu hit my kylo ren UPS at range 1 in both arcs with full mods

Twice

Two hits

That means SIXTEEN DICE due to rerolls; 14 blanks

Poor guy didnt even get half hull it was heartbreaking (but immensely relieving because it didnt happen to me)

I seem to consistently roll horribly when the dice are actually in my hands and a lot closer to statistical consistency when I'm either using the app or VASSAL. This has been a consistent thing in X-Wing, Armada, and Warhammer Fantasy. If you don't believe me, let me get out some Empire cannons and show you how to make all of them blow up or jam in a single turn.

Played a game of Armada with a friend just last night. Between 2 Vic I's at medium range, a Raider, and an Aquatens, I got tabled against his 2 Neb Escorts, Pelta, and Mon Cal cruiser. My dice were so bad that he even had time to take enough repair actions to negate all hull damage and repair his shields to a great extent.

In the Regionals thread there was a discussion of a Dengar who flew over a full set of Cluster Mines, scored 5 out of 6 hits (5 damage), took one damage from Sabine (6 total), then rolled for the debris he was going over. Debris came up a crit, and he drew a Major Explosion (7 total), which rolled a hit, and resulted in a Direct Hit (9 total). 9 damage in the activation phase. That is astonishingly bad luck, if true.

Bury those dice in the back yard next to the hamster and get some new ones...

It happens. I brought a ketsu and bossk build to a tourney, and they blanked out almost the whole day.

But take heart, the dice giveth and taketh away. The next week, a new list saw me rolling pure paint, 100% natural hits and crits for nearly the entire first round. One round may bring a bad beat, but its fine. you just get back on that dice tray and keep rollin'....

1 minute ago, thebrettski said:

It happens. I brought a ketsu and bossk build to a tourney, and they blanked out almost the whole day.

But take heart, the dice giveth and taketh away. The next week, a new list saw me rolling pure paint, 100% natural hits and crits for nearly the entire first round. One round may bring a bad beat, but its fine. you just get back on that dice tray and keep rollin'....

this relationship sounds like an abusive one

5 minutes ago, ficklegreendice said:

this relationship sounds like an abusive one

She rolls blanks because she loves me.

I've played Rey/Finn in the new Falcon twice and have no idea how it actually performs, because both outings I've rolled exactly 0 evade results on defense and barely enough hits to scratch the paint on a Tie Fighter. This is while flying perfectly to get Rey's ability to kick in on literally every shot, for or against. Both matches she got shredded over the course of 2 or 3 turns while dealing next to no damage in return, even though I outflew the hell out of my opponent. All I could do is laugh and shake my head.

A couple of months ago, I had my opponent on the ropes, positionally. Had his best ace cornered with no tokens (bumped) with three of my ships at range one. Unloaded on him... got exactly two hits from 10 dice, with every shot modified by target lock, focus, or both. If I had a target lock, I'd roll (and re-roll) eyes. If I had focus, I'd roll blanks. One of the hits I got was from Guidance Chips. He promptly rolled 2 evades. He also did max possible damage against the one ship of mine he could shoot. I almost flipped the table. I did the math and figured I should have killed him almost twice over with normal rolls.

This is nothing new for me, though. I am infamous among my gaming group for having the absolute worst luck imaginable when dice are involved... and winning most of the time anyway. When I do have roll well, I make up for my dry spells all in one go. Yesterday I played a game where I'm not sure I got a single blank on my dice (after rerolls) two games in a row. Tabled my opponent 100-0 both games. My dice were so hot they left scorch marks on the table. Unfortunately, that means I'll be rolling cold until June. At the earliest.

1 minute ago, mkevans80 said:

I've played Rey/Finn in the new Falcon twice and have no idea how it actually performs, because both outings I've rolled exactly 0 evade results on defense and barely enough hits to scratch the paint on a Tie Fighter.

to be completely fair, if you replace "Tie Fighter" with "Tie Defender" you'll have the exact same experience as everyone does with Rey regardless of their luck quality

3 hours ago, Force Majeure said:

Bury those dice in the back yard next to the hamster and get some new ones...

Burial is reserved for Heroes. These gets melted into plastic goop and disposed of in a landfill.

18 minutes ago, Stoneface said:

Burial is reserved for Heroes. These gets melted into plastic goop and disposed of in a landfill.

What i do with my bad dice are to line them up in front my my microwave and i will pick 1-2, depending on my mood and nuke them in said microwave while the rest watch. It is amazing how well the survivors are more inspired after such a demonstration.

My Regionals 2016 dice didn't want me to get Regionals 2017 dice.

/dicehate

Fenn range 1. That roll is a good representation of that entire mirror match during the tournament.

I had one game where I rolled 14 attack dice at a bwing from my focused howlswarm and he rolled 1 evade ...and did 2 damage.

Retired those dice after that.

So you now figure out the meta, No Dice, Palp can make it happen, also Accuracy corrector, Lets not forget no dice for your opponent with snap-juke and Omega Leader.

5 minutes ago, Marinealver said:

So you now figure out the meta, No Dice, Palp can make it happen, also Accuracy corrector, Lets not forget no dice for your opponent with snap-juke and Omega Leader.

eh, no dice modifications

VAST difference; variance can and will still bend you over

I usually roll average with my reds, but I often go on serious cold streaks with my greens. And I know that greens are statistically inferior to reds, but still. Once in a tournament a few years ago, I was running Jonus and 3 loaded bombers. I was attacking a squad of bwings at range 3 and over several attacks, I rolled 14 blanks in a row on my greens. And not eyeballs with no focus. Literally 14 blanks in a row. Usually I am the kind of guy to get super annoyed about that sort of thing, but this time I just started laughing about it for some reason. My opponent felt really bad and even commented that I was the most chill opponent he had ever faced. I had him fooled.

It happens to everyone now and then. I played the double arc and Biggs list in a tournament a few months back and rolled 16 straight blanks with Biggie on defense after positioning him at R3 with a rock in the way. Of course Biggs died first turn and I lost. Afterwards I threatened my green dice with a butane torch and they behaved the rest of the day. I even came back to make the cut.

Luck is an illusion. If you were to average your results across a hundred or so games, you'd find that you rapidly approached the average:

1. Red dice, upon each roll/reroll, will blank 1/4 of the time, focus 1/4 of the time, hit 3/8 of the time and crit 1/8 of the time.
2. Green dice will blank 3/8 of the time, evade 3/8 of the time and focus1/4 of the time.

If you've ever done statistics (specifically T-tests and chi-squared), you'll find that one gam gives results that are completely useless. Depending on how many ships you field (therefore how many dice you roll in a match) even Regional tournaments can be statistically irrelevant. Only a very large sample size, eliminating individual game variance (where nobody has any right to cry, given that it is a dice game), will tell you how "lucky you are.

I recently tested my dice (I'm known to often have hot dice, but can go cool on occasion), and found them to be statistically normal. If the dice roll average (or very close to it) in isolated testing, then they will do the same in games. Any perception otherwise is due to a bad matchup or individual, important rolls.

All that said, I've had 4 range 1 (ATT 3) shots with focus+target lock on a tokenless A-wing and have it come out unharmed due to it rolling a perfect 12 evades. Averages are all well and good, but the timing of individual good/bad rolls can really mess with you.

1 minute ago, Astech said:

Luck is an illusion.

No, it's not. Luck as a description of something that " is " or as something that " will continue to be " is simply fallacy and superstition. Luck as a description of something that " has been " is entirely possible to be real. Some X-Wing players are on the extreme tails -- good and bad -- of the dice probability curves, even over scores of games.

In other words, it might be entirely factual for someone to say, "I have been unlucky at X-Wing." By contrast, it is entirely false for anybody to say, "I am unlucky at X-Wing." The distinction is pretty important, although some people find it too subtle to understand.

Quote

No, it's not. Luck as a description of something that " is " or as something that " will continue to be " is simply fallacy and superstition. Luck as a description of something that " has been " is entirely possible to be real. Some X-Wing players are on the extreme tails -- good and bad -- of the dice probability curves, even over scores of games.

Given the amazing amount of X-wing players out there, this is certainly possible. However, the likelihood of any give player to continue on their hot/cold dice streak decreases with each game they play. A bad streak of dice might leave you dejected, but it often makes people more sensitive to individual bad rolls.

Even the O.P.

Quote

No eyeballs from Tailgunner after multiple attacks. Target Lock was useless because of the Evade/Focus even when I rolled well.

Despite admitting he was outmatched (I'd almost call it a hard counter), he stated that dice were an additional insult. Examples included rolling few focus to use with the ARC's rear arc and not being able to penetrate an X7s defenses with ATT 2 guns. In short, he was out-PS'ed, and against an opponent with superior maneuverability and action economy. Even if the dice were hot, the match up is bad, and that can lead to a perception of bad dice.

You'll find that nearly every complaint about luck is based on a tiny sample of games - maybe a regional tournament, at most. Those people are in the "I am unlucky at X-wing" category, and are the vast majority. Those in the "I have been unlucky at X-wing" group are more likely to be true, but perception of bad luck is normally the go-to evidence, rather than empirical data recording.

I have been there, we all have been. When you throw 6 tie fighters worth of dice (with Howlrunner support no less) and do no damage to a decimator at range 2... But by the same token I've been lucky enough to remove a Soontir fel at range 3 behind a rock with SD in tact with a single black squadron tie shooting once. Dice happens I actually prefer when my dice crap on me, at least then I don't feel bad for my opponent or feel like I won a game without trying. Even better are the games I win when dice are crap.