1 hour ago, Ailowynn said:

Assuming Corran was unlucky

Math is a bit hinky as you're citing the mean and then only looking at the dodgy side of the distribution in your %s. You're calling near expected average damage "unlucky" rather than what it is, near average. If Corran had actually been unlucky then he would have blanked out and been evaporated. Having said that, given the ranges/tokens above, you're correct about him surviving average dice largely OK. He got a bit lucky, but that largely didn't significantly change the outcome of the game.