So, I made a pretty big spreadsheet and plugged in just about every unit value. Did just about every calculation imaginable, average dmg, max dmg, point per model, point per wound, point per effective wounds, etc. Found out some really cool things and correlations. I've never straight up tried to analyze a game quantitatively before so my formulas, observations, and even my base knowledge of the game could all be wrong but I wanted to go through the mental exercise.
Dice:
Red Die: Are the most damage oriented die, while their damage on averages isn't insanely higher their ability to *yahtzee* big rolls is. One of the most extreme examples is in a max formation squad of rune golems, if you flank and choose a red bonus die, your maximum output increase by 5 damage while your average only increases by 1.25 compared to choosing a blue die. Hits scale really well threat.
Blue Die: Give surge and accuracy, especially surge, and if you have surge abilities on items or on your unit that you want to trigger this is what you want.
White Die: Are the love child of combing blue and red, expect to get a damage and something to go along with it. Not quite as good as blue die for triggering surge.
Rerolls: Because of the variability in red die, the double blanks, I'm going to put these guys as pretty strong because it was naturally increase your average damage roll just because you won't get stuck with the 2 in 8 blank as often. If rerolls allow you selectively reroll one die in a group, instead of just all of them, they will be very strong.
Formations: The primary reason I started doing this was because I wanted to know how much value their was to running multiple small units compared to large formations. Early data suggests that units are better in smaller groups as far as damage per point spent goes. However units in small formations can lose their threat bonus very quickly which greatly reduces their damage by half, and with the variability of red die having a reroll seems pretty necessary. One thing that scales quite well is effective hp(Armor x HP) per point, some unit. Looking at hit averages across the board 3 armor is a good value, while being able to boost to two on a rank and file is really valuable. Another thing to suggest MSU is not the definitive way to build armies(even though perhaps some units will function pretty well at it.) is upgrades. Upgrades from the few that we have seen are extremely strong. Tempered steel(as seen in the reanimate box) is one of the most cost effective sources of damage in the game. If your threat is 2 you are pay 1.5 points for a point of damage, and if it is 3 you are paying 1 point per a point. To put this into perspective the best deals in units tends be 5 points, and the average 8-11 points. Another strong example is a max rank unit of Daqan Spearmen go from one of the least cost effective units for damage per a point spent, to once you equip them with a front line rune golem to one of the most. So units are definitely priced at certain tiers where more upgrades become unlocked.
Daqan Units:
Kari: The single most effective source of damage in the game if I calculated it correctly. The cavaet is that her damage is better on a target that she is not engaged with, while being engaged with something else. *_*. It will be interesting to see what type of upgrades she can get to increase her surge fr equency/amount.
Rune Golem: This bad boy over here tends to be above average in almost all of his stats for point spent at small unit sizes and large unit sizes. His Yahtzee roll is the highest in the game(except for front line spearmen who tie.)while his average is pretty damn good. Can also achieve the highest block of effective health in the game by a large margin in melee and close to it when not in melee. In groups of one or two are extremely effective flankers, if a bit unwieldy, however a main battle line of 6 could be absolutely devastating. Their effective HP is also greater than most in practicality because of the thresh hold function in armor. Small units can't touch em and it would take a unit with an extremely large threat bonus to begin even scratching them. They are slow and cumbersome, so don't allow their above average stats to actually distract you from that difficulty in the field of battle. The scariest thing about running 6 of them is they are extremely vulnerable to carrion lancers and Ardus if they are blighted.
Oathsworn Calvary: At their smallest formation they are one of the most cost effective sources of damage with high mobility and the ability to armor up any given turn. However, they are pretty frail to reanimate archers and I would use the armor ability any time they are subject to being attacked from reanimate archers, potentially even when in combat or having them go for the archers first. Even though groups of 2 trays are extremely cost effective on averages(volatility of red die) and because of their frailty I would run them in their second formation. Their cost effectiveness vanishes in the third formation, I can only assume this is some hidden cost associated with an upgrade or that rerolls are that strong. If I would run them in the 2 by 3 formation, I would rather just spend more points and get them to the awesome 3 threat. I have not really mentioned the prospect of flanking yet, but if you do their damage goes up considerably. One extremely interesting thing about them is their ability to generate inspiration tokens isn't far fetched so I could see some scenario of being able to use an upgrade card turn after turn, especially if you can flank and get a blue die.
Spearmen: Great effective wounds at range because of the +armor on march. The white skill will probably always be useful, and the ability to generate a guaranteed hit off their dial is extremely strong, especially with how easy it is to get their threat to 3. Really good generalist rank and file, I'd probably run them in their 3 by 2 formation in groups of 2(especially once their command squad comes out), but their max formation with front line rune golem is absolutely terrifying damage wise and doesn't reduce the groups toughness in the long run, and can help keep their damage relevant even when he is the only model still left in the squad, which is quite the accomplishment for rank and file.
Waiqar:
Ardus: This guy has a lot of hidden power and it will be interesting to see how he develops. He is inherently less cost effective than Kari, but if a carrion lancer is near him, and his targeted is blighted, he will kill whatever he needs to.(Especially if mortal strike damage can be increased by threat.) Don't let him touch your rune golems, you will be upset. Try and set a unit of oathsworn calvary up to intercept him, because I doubt the enemy player is going to walk him into your spearmen.
Carrion Lancer: Is kind of similar to the Spearmen in how tactically flexible it is. Has several movement options, one of them at speed 3 makes it interestingly enough good at blocking charge lanes.(Thanks Kris!) It's ability to blight something and then move is very strong. It will be interesting to see what other cards play off blight tokens, as of right now being able to bypass armor on average once per a turn is pretty strong and with some *yahtzee*rolls or rerolls you can do a lot better than that. He will eat your rune golems for breakfast and his 3 health and 3 armor make him extremely durable. His damage output while cost effective against non high armor targets is a bit less then stellar until he gets to higher formation levels. I expect his access to the morale modifier on his melee attack to make up for this.
Reanimate Archers: Are really good, high damage out put in their smallest formation for their cost. The variability of the red die leaves me wanting rerolls though, so I'd probably take them in their max formation for 3 threat which does boost their damage considerably. Allowing them to take out a trays worth of armored horse men per a turn. The tempered steel upgrade turns them into absolute damage monsters even if you never refresh the upgrade. This is especially devastating with the accuracy modifier on the dial, almost assuring you get to *snipe* an opponents command model. Hell I'd run 2 units of max formation if I could screen them well enough.
Reanimates: Excellent wounds per cost, damage gets less effective as the unit gains in size as they don't have an in built hit icon to take advantage of their threat bonus that can reach up to 4. They are a tarpit from hell though. Their morale modifier I am sure will come in handy with their poor damage scaling. All I can say is, if your going to try and kill this unit, kill it quickly. Or ignore for as long as possibe, it's just not an effective way to earn victory points. I'm sorry if your opponent makes this their bounty unit in their objective mission. In their max formation, each one is worth approximately 1.33 points. Putting Ardus in side them might be worth it in a max formation unit, 3 die a ton of wounds and threat 4? Okay. Gives them some real teeth at that point. Real slow, real cumbersome, but just so efficient for a tar pit.
One again, all of these units effectiveness could change tremendously once we see the upgrade cards. The few that I have ran the numbers on have proven to be extremely effective at boosting a units power level. So all of this is just a first blush assessment with no table time.
PS: One thing I forgot to mention is how powerful a *hit* effect on a dial is. A unit with one of these on their dial tend to be very cost efficient damage wise as their size goes up because of its interaction with threat value.
It takes some straining to see!
Oh ok now I can see it but it's barely readable. good job to those who could read it... because i cannot....
