1 minute ago, Ginkapo said:

Nope, you cannot retract to that position and try and take a moral high ground.

Blail's argument is built on statistics. Without statistics of the counter its meaningless. Its a crucial factor in the argument. The difference between the counter not being present and not being effective is crucial.

No hyperbole, no whining.

Accepted. You win. We'll let Drew expand on his fleet. If he wants to.

I am going to start a thread about snipe later, to see if anyone is having success.

There is clearly an issue with intel, lets see if anyone is dealing with it and has tips.

4 hours ago, Ginkapo said:

Stop the hyperbole.

How many are taking IG88, Saber, Mauler? How are they doing?

How many are taking Ewings? How are they doing?

If they are turning up to regionals and struggling, then its worth a look. I bet they are not appearing at regionals, so all this is hot air.

IG - none.

Saber - 5 fleets

Mauler - 3 fleets

Ewing - 5 fleets (12 stands)

Corran - 2 fleets

Too few fleets have any of these to really draw conclusions. DL88 is the start of the individual squad representations. Need to do the same thing but with "how many fleets have these" instead of "how many stands of these"

6 hours ago, Blail Blerg said:

83.4% of the top 4 spent more than 81 pts.

66.7% of the top4 spent more than 101 points.

58.3% of the top 4 had 7-10 squadrons. (That by itself is in healthy limits, with the rest of it, sounds disturbing).

Reminder, small sample size questions: This is top4 data. So its 16 lists atm. 4x4.

Uhh Baltanok, could you also put # of BCC next to squadron data

And also track for how many of these have:

Bomber 2 dice
Bomber 1 dice
Nonbomber avg dmg of 6/8th+ aka nonbomber 1 black dice
Nonbomber non-blk die non-multiple-other-dice

Should be possible to add BCC, # of dice per stand. bomber's already in there, just need to put some math in to present results. So, probably a similar chart to the DL88 fighter representation thing, but for keywords instead of squadron names.

OK, here's more errors in my formulas, and have now found and fixed. I think I will be wearing my "Arthur Andersen Audit team" hat to work today in shame... (accountant joke)

top 4 & top 8 were actually top 3 & top 7. fleets with no squads were not being included in the %.

I think that when you stop and consider that BCC is effectively a new die being rolled until the preferred result is found, it really increases the power of those fleets. If you have 2+ BCCs, you can basically re-roll as many times as you have BCC minus 1 where the last one is to fix having rolled a blank on your last roll. They basically work similar to Dual Turbolasers but for squads, and no need to exhaust anything.

11 hours ago, Baltanok said:

PT, I'll put in some tracking on counter, relay & rogue. The "antiship" and "antisquad" values in there are average, not modified for ace special abilities, swarm, BCC's, etc.

Formula on average speed is off, haven't fixed that yet. (currently, it's sum of speeds.) Will probably do a stands by speed count, the way I did a stands by wave count.

Very nice work!

I think that while it is hard to count all the special abilities and combinations, I would to do that at least for Jendon (as his ability de facto changes his armament to the best one of any of your squads).

For example in the list I was running, it would change his stats from avg 1.5 AA 0.5 AS to avg 3.25 AA 1.75 AS which affects the statistics significantly.

I got greeblehauled this tournament, but it's a good venue with fun players to play, so I still had a good time. Hope they apply for and get next year's regionals too...

17 hours ago, Madaghmire said:

Ard's fleet would eat this thing alive. I mean, like, 400-0. Boom. Shenanigans. No fighters necessary.

Can confirm, played last week against a very similar list--I think it was Y's instead of B's. I lost a cannon fodder flotilla for a tabling.

But, like Mad caveated: the fleet doesn't do it by itself. I haven't played Drew, and he could be (clearly, is) a wizard of Pelta play who would wreck me. And it's a nasty, nasty fleet.

I consider myself pretty good at evading squadrons with my ships, but I learned how to do it by playing squadrons. And I still play squadron lists in many of my games, just to stay sharp on them. I count myself fortunate in that the San Antonio meta was very heavy squadron through almost all of W1 and W2, so we all picked up a strong background in squadron play when we were first learning the game. Makes a huge difference in facing them, even if you didn't bring any of your own.

5 hours ago, Baltanok said:

Should be possible to add BCC, # of dice per stand. bomber's already in there, just need to put some math in to present results. So, probably a similar chart to the DL88 fighter representation thing, but for keywords instead of squadron names.

Thanks. Uhh, I know BCC is on the other page, but having it in the same graph for squadrons repeated would be nice for viewing.

and WOW. 87.5% now brought over 81 pts of squadrons in the top4!!!!!!

Also, seriously, thanks for up keeping the data.

26 minutes ago, Ardaedhel said:

Can confirm, played last week against a very similar list--I think it was Y's instead of B's. I lost a cannon fodder flotilla for a tabling.

But, like Mad caveated: the fleet doesn't do it by itself. I haven't played Drew, and he could be (clearly, is) a wizard of Pelta play who would wreck me. And it's a nasty, nasty fleet.

I consider myself pretty good at evading squadrons with my ships, but I learned how to do it by playing squadrons. And I still play squadron lists in many of my games, just to stay sharp on them. I count myself fortunate in that the San Antonio meta was very heavy squadron through almost all of W1 and W2, so we all picked up a strong background in squadron play when we were first learning the game. Makes a huge difference in facing them, even if you didn't bring any of your own.

Ard.... its not the **** Peltaaaaaaa..... ahhhhhhhhhh

1 minute ago, Blail Blerg said:

Thanks. Uhh, I know BCC is on the other page, but having it in the same graph for squadrons repeated would be nice for viewing.

and WOW. 87.5% now brought over 81 pts of squadrons in the top4!!!!!!

Also, seriously, thanks for up keeping the data.

Ard.... its not the **** Peltaaaaaaa..... ahhhhhhhhhh

Yeah, sorry, was just kind of browsing through and totally missed that there were two more pages of conversation after that. Reading through them now, my bad.

2 hours ago, pt106 said:

Very nice work!

I think that while it is hard to count all the special abilities and combinations, I would to do that at least for Jendon (as his ability de facto changes his armament to the best one of any of your squads).

For example in the list I was running, it would change his stats from avg 1.5 AA 0.5 AS to avg 3.25 AA 1.75 AS which affects the statistics significantly.

It would be great to do that, but the more recursive formulas tend to bog sheets down significantly. That seems like a good thing to put into a list theorycrafter sheet, where every upgrade is tracked and accounted for.

But, at the level we are going for with this spreadsheet, I don't think it's worth it.

I'll do a write up on my fleet and why it's put toeghter the way it is + how I fly it. If i remember correctly Ard, you're fleet is 6 activations, tycho, shara, trc90, admo, and scout mc30 all with intel officers, 2 coms net flotillas, 1 boosted com flotilla, and mon-mothma?

I did a friendly match vs that where said fleet went first. I lost a tansport (ashoka one, so 28 points) with above fleet keeping 2 flotillas alive (coms net ones) but everything else dying. It's iffy due to MM rerolls, but my approach is to activate yavaris last and have everything else screened on likely approach of the mc30s (long range of likely target of the mc30). Pelta and Yavaris are in front of transports. Then whichever mc30 activates first yavaris goes for that one, with decent positioning) yields 2 b-wing double taps and a single b-wing attack all backed by Nora crit effect. Rolling for crit on blue and black so re-rolls don't hard damage output that much. Unactivated squadrons should also be close enough to feed extra shots into the targeted mc30. I ignore the other one until first mc30 dead. Ignore jainas light with trc intel as it's damage output is...less than the mc30's and can be face tanked for a couple rounds without major harm being done. To kill a regular mc30 presuming bad dice luck on b-wing side is 3-b's nora and gold all hitting for the dead mc30. On admo it's above + andar tallon and wedge. math on base mc30 presuming all re-rolls go blank, but saying I have double crits. Obviously situation is contrived, but it gets the point across as it is only a single blue crit every attack as long as evades are present and probably averages to similar results with "real" math:

b-wing 1) 1 damage to each side front takes 2 (blue crit left, blue crit right, nora crit twice to the front) all tokens exhausted.

b-wing2) 1 to each side face down damage card. all tokens discarded.

b-wing3) 3 damage mc30 dies

The key is from Nora's extra damage on the facing arc which is what really puts the hurt on the mc30. If the list you faced didn't have nora then I would expect the MM list to table the bombers.

Just now, Baltanok said:

It would be great to do that, but the more recursive formulas tend to bog sheets down significantly. That seems like a good thing to put into a list theorycrafter sheet, where every upgrade is tracked and accounted for.

But, at the level we are going for with this spreadsheet, I don't think it's worth it.

I would just calculate these values manually for the fleets in question and put them in instead of trying to create an universal formula.

4 minutes ago, mythics said:

I'll do a write up on my fleet and why it's put toeghter the way it is + how I fly it. If i remember correctly Ard, you're fleet is 6 activations, tycho, shara, trc90, admo, and scout mc30 all with intel officers, 2 coms net flotillas, 1 boosted com flotilla, and mon-mothma?

I did a friendly match vs that where said fleet went first. I lost a tansport (ashoka one, so 28 points) with above fleet keeping 2 flotillas alive (coms net ones) but everything else dying. It's iffy due to MM rerolls, but my approach is to activate yavaris last and have everything else screened on likely approach of the mc30s (long range of likely target of the mc30). Pelta and Yavaris are in front of transports. Then whichever mc30 activates first yavaris goes for that one, with decent positioning) yields 2 b-wing double taps and a single b-wing attack all backed by Nora crit effect. Rolling for crit on blue and black so re-rolls don't hard damage output that much. Unactivated squadrons should also be close enough to feed extra shots into the targeted mc30. I ignore the other one until first mc30 dead. Ignore jainas light with trc intel as it's damage output is...less than the mc30's and can be face tanked for a couple rounds without major harm being done. To kill a regular mc30 presuming bad dice luck on b-wing side is 3-b's nora and gold all hitting for the dead mc30. On admo it's above + andar tallon and wedge. math on base mc30 presuming all re-rolls go blank, but saying I have double crits. Obviously situation is contrived, but it gets the point across as it is only a single blue crit every attack as long as evades are present and probably averages to similar results with "real" math:

b-wing 1) 1 damage to each side front takes 2 (blue crit left, blue crit right, nora crit twice to the front) all tokens exhausted.

b-wing2) 1 to each side face down damage card. all tokens discarded.

b-wing3) 3 damage mc30 dies

The key is from Nora's extra damage on the facing arc which is what really puts the hurt on the mc30. If the list you faced didn't have nora then I would expect the MM list to table the bombers.

So, you agree with me: within ONE activation of Yavaris double tap: that MC30 is dead. And you can get double tap at nearly any time with FCT.

Meaning: you can first strike before the MC30s, your first strike leaves the first one dead.

What I'm implying: I think that MC30 list will DIE.
And as you all know, I'm not afraid of predicting things.

I use a more or less "Force-driven" approach to analyzing the metagame.

In other words: Don't be too proud of this technological terror (Death Spreadsheet) you've constructed. The ability to crunch numbers is insignificant next to the power of the Force.

And before you start telling me about I'm trying to frighten you with my "Sorcerer's Ways" and that they aren't going to deliver me any stolen data tapes or wins...I do alright.

11 minutes ago, mythics said:

Obviously situation is contrived, but it gets the point across as it is only a single blue crit every attack as long as evades are present and probably averages to similar results with "real" math:

b-wing 1) 1 damage to each side front takes 2 (blue crit left, blue crit right, nora crit twice to the front) all tokens exhausted.

b-wing2) 1 to each side face down damage card. all tokens discarded.

b-wing3) 3 damage mc30 dies

Why would MC30 redirect first bwing attack in the presence of Nora and that nasty crit? The better strategy is to let front shield drain to 0 as fast as possible and then start redirecting.

11 minutes ago, CaribbeanNinja said:

I use a more or less "Force-driven" approach to analyzing the metagame.

In other words: Don't be too proud of this technological terror (Death Spreadsheet) you've constructed. The ability to crunch numbers is insignificant next to the power of the Force.

And before you start telling me about I'm trying to frighten you with my "Sorcerer's Ways" and that they aren't going to deliver me any stolen data tapes or wins...I do alright.

Single impulse. You may fire when ready.

Quote

39 minutes ago, mythics said:

Obviously situation is contrived, but it gets the point across as it is only a single blue crit every attack as long as evades are present and probably averages to similar results with "real" math:

b-wing 1) 1 damage to each side front takes 2 (blue crit left, blue crit right, nora crit twice to the front) all tokens exhausted.

b-wing2) 1 to each side face down damage card. all tokens discarded.

b-wing3) 3 damage mc30 dies

Why would MC30 redirect first bwing attack in the presence of Nora and that nasty crit? The better strategy is to let front shield drain to 0 as fast as possible and then start redirecting.

if you don't there is the risk of something nasty bleeding through. Lets say you reroll and it comes up 3 damage, or accuracies start floating around once the evades are out of comission. The more likely result of the above isn't 1 damage, but 2. Black crit/hit goes to hit. If you don't redirect that forward shield is gone. if you do then it doesn't matter if it was 1 damage or not. The other reason for the redirect is due to *hand wavy vague* positioning. If the b wing is in place to also hit the side arc by redirecting you don't leave any arc weaker than the others. 1 damage + nora crit not redirected means the side arcs are now weaker than the front, so everything hits the side instead (requires either good positioning by the b's or the mc30 ending in a bad spot). To be clear on why sides are "weaker" is the front arc has 7 shields remaining when including redirects. 3 left, 3 right, 1 fore. Side arc is 6 shields. 3 left, 2 rear, 1 fore. The goal of nora is to chip at shields to reduce the effectiveness of redirects. As long as a redirect is in play norra'd bombers go for shields before potential hull damage. Also keep in mind that is all to the front and not counting potential ship attacks.

So a direct response since I rambled:

You redirect to keep all arcs equally healthy otherwise nora'd bombers go for the weakest arc with shields remaining to reduce the effectiveness of redirects.

7 hours ago, Ginkapo said:

I am going to start a thread about snipe later, to see if anyone is having success.

There is clearly an issue with intel, lets see if anyone is dealing with it and has tips.

I had success with snipe at the Utah Regional came in 3rd, in my first game took out both Intel's with the help of snipe, but activating 3 B-wings with yavaris tore my squadrons apart, as I look back on that game there are things I could have done better I learned a lot from it, but in the end my 94 points of fighters only bought me a turn because of the massive retaliation from yavaris.

10 minutes ago, mythics said:

You redirect to keep all arcs equally healthy otherwise nora'd bombers go for the weakest arc with shields remaining to reduce the effectiveness of redirects.

And this strategy is suboptimal in the presence of Nora. On a ship with two redirects one can safely allow the shield to be drained to 0 while keeping other two shields full and only then start redirecting (and if the second bomber attacks different hull zone - now the shields from all 4 zones are in play). As far as nasty crits going to the hull - in the case of mass raid with Yavaris BWings they happen sooner or later so as long as the number of crits going through is the same - it is a minor consideration (its still a gamble with Projector misaligned but may be worth it)

What am I missing about those pelta lists? I'm a bit out of the game atm, but other than the second one with AFFM, what's so special about those?

I guess it's personal opinion and play style then. I aim to lose redirects as the last effective shield goes down even if that means being sub-optimal by math. In the case of an mc30 that means as soon as front shield is gone (or attacking arc) i would aim to have all redirects spent. But to each their own, and I'm sure over time the best way for a ship to tank nora crits will be found and we will all use that method.

However, actual tournament and how it fared in that situation was moot as I did not face a MM mc30.

50 minutes ago, Gowtah said:

What am I missing about those pelta lists? I'm a bit out of the game atm, but other than the second one with AFFM, what's so special about those?

Here's the trick: Its not about the dang Pelta.
(Well, yes, the Pelta is cool and required, but thats not what the discussion is about, try the last few pages?)

1 minute ago, Blail Blerg said:

Here's the trick: Its not about the dang Pelta.

So no new concept since W4? That's a bit sad... Also, nothing unmanageable then.