Destiny can be a complex game. Decisions have to be made while taking into account many factors at once. The basics of probability should be one of those factors in almost every decision. I want to take a look at one simple example; Force Throw. The special on Force Throw is one of the most powerful abilities in the game, it combines both removal and damage. It can be a swing of 4 or 6 damage if you are removing a die showing a 2-3 damage side. So lets look at how to get this special to activate more often.

The Force Throw die has two special sides on the die so with just one roll your odds of getting the special are 33% . (2/6)

If you are prepared to discard a card to reroll, then the odds of getting the special on one of those two rolls is 55% . (1-(4/6)*(4/6))

But of course this costs you an action and a card, which is pretty expensive (but often worth it). But lets look at how we can increase our odds without discarding a card.

If you have Force Throw on Dooku, who has a focus side on his die then your odds of getting to the special are 44% . (1-(4/6)*(5/6))

If you have Force Throw and Datapad (or Sith Holocron) on Dooku: 54%

If you have Force Throw and Datapad (or Sith Holocron) on Elite Dooku: 61%

If you have Force Throw and Datapad and Sith Holocron on Elite Dooku: 68%

Of course there are infinitely may combinations of things that can affect the math on this. And your Force Throw die can still get Electroshocked away, nothing is foolproof. But looking at ways to increase your odds and knowing how much your odds have improved by seems like a worthwhile exercise.

*PS: I hope my math is correct. I am not a mathematician.

Chance that Force Throw will roll its Special when I need it: 0%

Chance that Force Throw will roll its Special when I don't need it: 100%

Jokes aside, this is good work. I love the probability game, and feel like being familiar with the odds (as much as certain characters would rather never be told them) is crucial to winning consistently. Good project.

This is why I think Chirrut is going to be so great. After he activates, you can reroll all of your blank results. For a die that has a single blank facing, this means you'll have a 35/36, or 97.2% chance of NOT getting a blank result. Chirrut may seem superficially underwhelming, but he improves the odds of EVERY non-blank result in your deck occurring and the effect becomes more powerful over the course of the game as you have more dice in play. It's actually a really solid ability.

Chirrut effectively reduces the chance of rolling a blank on a single blank die from 1/6 (16.7%) to 1/36 (2.8%). That means each of the other facings is 2.8% more likely to occur. This is just another tool that can be used to mitigate the random nature of the dice.

I think all of your percentages are correct accept for the last one is 68% instead of 69%

I think all of your percentages are correct accept for the last one is 68% instead of 69%

Yup, rounding error. Correcting now. Thanks.

Don't Never tell me the odds!

Also. I suck at maths.

I love this work, but my eyes roll back in my head when "Mathhammering" happens. I mean I totally get why it is done...

It's not that you have to be able to do the math in your head, or memorize the percentages. But rather, take these things into account when you are building your deck. If you build your deck to be more consistent, your results will be more consistent.

It's not that you have to be able to do the math in your head, or memorize the percentages. But rather, take these things into account when you are building your deck. If you build your deck to be more consistent, your results will be more consistent.

Yup. Deck building is partly about using card synergies to mitigate the random nature of the dice.

Thanks for not taking that comment as a complaint!

What about putting force throw on Jango Fett with the Sith holocron. The opponent rolls four Shields with diplomatic immunity, Jango triggers and throws it back as dmg before you even react.

What about putting force throw on Jango Fett with the Sith holocron. The opponent rolls four Shields with diplomatic immunity, Jango triggers and throws it back as dmg before you even react.

Yup. Jango is annoying. Sith Jango is even worse.

This is why I think Chirrut is going to be so great. After he activates, you can reroll all of your blank results. For a die that has a single blank facing, this means you'll have a 35/36, or 97.2% chance of NOT getting a blank result. Chirrut may seem superficially underwhelming, but he improves the odds of EVERY non-blank result in your deck occurring and the effect becomes more powerful over the course of the game as you have more dice in play. It's actually a really solid ability.

Chirrut effectively reduces the chance of rolling a blank on a single blank die from 1/6 (16.7%) to 1/36 (2.8%). That means each of the other facings is 2.8% more likely to occur. This is just another tool that can be used to mitigate the random nature of the dice.

This seems... Off. Each time you roll the die, there is a 1/6 chance you roll a blank. When Chirrut rolls the die, you have a 5/6 chance it won't roll blank.

This is why I think Chirrut is going to be so great. After he activates, you can reroll all of your blank results. For a die that has a single blank facing, this means you'll have a 35/36, or 97.2% chance of NOT getting a blank result. Chirrut may seem superficially underwhelming, but he improves the odds of EVERY non-blank result in your deck occurring and the effect becomes more powerful over the course of the game as you have more dice in play. It's actually a really solid ability.

Chirrut effectively reduces the chance of rolling a blank on a single blank die from 1/6 (16.7%) to 1/36 (2.8%). That means each of the other facings is 2.8% more likely to occur. This is just another tool that can be used to mitigate the random nature of the dice.

This seems... Off. Each time you roll the die, there is a 1/6 chance you roll a blank. When Chirrut rolls the die, you have a 5/6 chance it won't roll blank.

If i understand correctly(and im not saying i do) arent the chances of getting the same dice result twice in a row:

1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36?

So he's not off.

That, as i say, is assuming I've not cocked up the maths. Which i probably have.

The first die roll and second die roll are not dependent on each other, therefore it is 1/6. It will always be 1/6 no matter how often you roll that one die since the current roll is not dependent on the last one and is always 1/6.

Now if you rerolled two blank dice, each with 1 blank side, the odds of both coming up blanks again would be 1/36, as that result is dependent on both die having blanks in the current roll. If you did reroll two blanks and discarded to reroll both dice once again, the odds would again be 1/36, as the current roll is independent of the last. Dependent probabilities are more relevant in your deck, as each draw removes cards from the deck, reducing the total pool of cards and hence increasing the odds of a particular card being drawn.

Statistics, actually not as much fun as it sounds.

The first die roll and second die roll are not dependent on each other, therefore it is 1/6. It will always be 1/6 no matter how often you roll that one die since the current roll is not dependent on the last one and is always 1/6.

I get what you're saying, but in this instance they're not completely independent of each other are they?

In order to trigger the 2nd roll you have to get a blank on the first roll. This inherently ties them together.

I get that each individual roll is a 1/6 chance but when calculating the odds of first rolling a specific result then rolling that same result again when you do, surely they have to be tied together?

Otherwise your chances of rolling 100 blanks in a row remains 1 in 6, and that seems absurd.

Again though, not a maths guy. Happy to bow to your superior knowlege.

The first die roll and second die roll are not dependent on each other, therefore it is 1/6. It will always be 1/6 no matter how often you roll that one die since the current roll is not dependent on the last one and is always 1/6.

I get what you're saying, but in this instance they're not completely independent of each other are they?

In order to trigger the 2nd roll you have to get a blank on the first roll. This inherently ties them together.

I get that each individual roll is a 1/6 chance but when calculating the odds of first rolling a specific result then rolling that same result again when you do, surely they have to be tied together?

Otherwise your chances of rolling 100 blanks in a row remains 1 in 6, and that seems absurd.

Again though, not a maths guy. Happy to bow to your superior knowlege.

If you used Chirrut and rolled another blank, the odds of that happening were technically 1/36 (blank twice in a row). However, when all is said and done, we are still only looking at 1 roll.

If we were to write out every possible combination of a die being rolled once and then rerolled, we would have 30 combinations that don't even matter to Chirrut, anything where the first result is not blank. We are only looking at the 6 possible results where the first was blank.

So sure, roll blank twice and the odds were 1/36 it would happen. However, when Chirruts's ability triggers, we are already done with the first roll. Only the second roll matters.

However, if looking at the game as a whole, yes, if you are activating Chirrut last, all your blue dice have an overall chance to end up being blank of 1/36. But since they need to start blank, that blank die does have a 1/6 chance of rolling blank at that time.

Dependent and independent sets gets confusing in statistics. Basically, once the first roll happens and you get that blank, then the next roll is independent. If you are starting from the point before anything is rolled, then take into account the entire dice pool. Say you have only 1 die to roll before Chirrut ability and that die only had 1 blank, then you roll another blank, the odds would be 1/6. Here is why - the odds of Chirrut ability even being used to reroll a blank is 1/6. So all those other possibilities which include a non blank first and then a blank, 30 of them, are not even counted in the set as they do not even exist. You must have that first blank before you can roll a second blank, therefore the odds of having the first blank is 100%.

All of this gets thrown out once you add in dice from another characters, supports and upgrades. A free reroll is a free reroll and there are more undesirable sides to dice than blanks.