So, if I really need 2pts for a Rebel list, is dropping a Y-wing to a Rebel Op HWK a bad move? I can make the other 2pts go far and really want it.

Im just going off Xwing Dice Probability site.

1 Agility + Focus vs 3 attack dice + focus = 1.63 expected damage

2 Agility + Focus vs 3 attack dice + focus = 1.07 expected damage

Ywing with 8HP = can survive 4.91 attacks vs 3 attack dice + focus

HWK with 5HP = can survive 4.68 attacks vs 3 attack dice + focus

So, Versus a 3 attack + focus, the survival of both ships is really really close, so we need to look at other aspects that make them different.

The Others:

Y-wing has the white 3-banks that gives the distance needed for TLTs, while the HWK has red 3-banks. This is probably the biggest differentiator to take the Y over the HWK.

Y-wing also has a 4 k-turn. This can be useful versus anyone chasing you trying to get in range 1, it gives you a primary shot.

Y-wing has +1 attack with primary which occasionally is useful.

HWK, the rebel op is 2pts cheaper, this allows an upgrade either on this ship, or another ship. Hard to "math" this

HWK has green 1 banks. Like Ywing primary, occasionally useful.

Hope:

The rebel op always has the possibility to block two attacks with its 2 agility. No, you shouldn't count on this at all, but it is still there. I know the expected damage is the law of averages and has calculated in rolling 2 evades and zero evades, but if your Y-wing has 1 HP left and the opponent rolls 2 hits, you are dead. The HWK has the possibility to stay alive for 1 more round, and that can change the entire game. Sometimes, this type of luck, is what is needed to win that close game in a tournament. Either your opponent blanking out on green dice, or your dice getting those two evades to stay alive. So although, you don't expect this ever and don't plan for it, the possibility is still there. A 50ft shot in a basketball game at the buzzer can win a team a championship. The team doesn't waste time practicing it, but the coach has a play for it in his playbook.

It's a nice fill in for the TLT-Y if you want a turret but don't have the points. I basically see it as the extra die should cancel out 1 or 2 damage, so it's 2 points less for 1 or 2 less HP. If you have good plan for the 2 points and it really makes your list better, go for it. Also, the Hwk might be ignored more than the Y.

The real problem with the HWK is the one-die primary. Y-Wings can sorta punish you for getting into Range 1 -- a three-dice attack can at least strip some tokens. Two dice, though, is pretty . . . meh. So basically, if you take the HWK, you have to fly better. Plus, the dice can screw you just as much as they can help you. Y-Wings are just more consistent; there are a lot of times when your green dice blank, and that makes it real easy for a HWK to go poof.

What is the rest of your list? The real question is going to be how much you can make the points you save count. I'd tend to say that a Y-Wing is more efficient than a HWK, but it might be worth trading down if it significantly increases the efficiency of the rest of your squad.

I would say the Hwk isn't terrible, but it is definitely not as good as the y-wing when it comes to carrying a tlt.

In terms of survivability the Hwk is fine until it runs into something that's slinging slightly more accurate or powerful attacks than usual. At that point it will melt faster than a y-wing would.

The maneuverability and the primary weapon as you said come out in favour of the y-wing; the y-wing has a primary attack that can be relevant if needed, the Hwk does not.

For low speed maneuverability and greens; y-wings will most of the time being carrying the R2 astromech to make all speed 1-2 green (but that does of course add an extra point).

The general doctrine for putting the y-wing above the Hwk is that when you can't consistently modify your defense dice, (and neither of these ships are great at defending themselves) it's generally better to rely on hit points than green dice.

That is not to say that it isn't worth making the switch, it very much depends on what usage you're going to get out of those two extra points.

Just out of curiosity, what is the List? And what we're you going to add to It?

After day one, the list in second place at Yavin last year (the largest X-wing event in the world to date) was 4 Hwks. They do work, they spare you a little chunk of points, and in a scum list, that little chunk can do a disproportionate amount of work.

Y-wing TLT has better durability and maneuver dial. TLT HWK is only good if you list was going to include a HWK anyways.

TLT HWK with Jan is the same points as Gold Y TLT and definitely tougher on defense with that evade.

But then Horton is the master of the TLT, but Kavil cheats with an EPT.

Most people will go for Y unless they need that crew slot (or special pilot ability) for support. Don't forget Dutch as a cheap support ship himself tho!

That 2 points can be vectored thrusters for your HWK as well, allowing more range control or at the very least forcing boosts/ rolls to maintain R1.

That 2 points can be vectored thrusters for your HWK as well, allowing more range control or at the very least forcing boosts/ rolls to maintain R1.

Thrusters on Moldy Crow HWK that's been banking focus tokens would be a bit slippery. But then that's a three point title for delayed action economy...