It's probably less than you think.

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx

Population size: 30 card deck

Number of successes: 2 of each card

Sample size: 5 in your starting hand

Number of successes in sample: 1

The odds of drawing one of any card you have 2 of in your deck are about 28.7% so less than 1/3 of the time. Keep any of those cards and try to draw again and it goes down by about 4-5% for each card you keep.

This isn't correct. I think that looking for exactly 1 success is skewing the sample, because it's ignoring cases where you draw both copies.

If you're looking for a single copy of a card, you've got a 31% chance of getting it in your opening hand. If you mulligan aggressively for that card, it's 52.4% or so.

Even combos aren't too bad - if you're looking for a single copy of two cards you've got about a 24% chance of hitting it with an aggressive mulligan.

From interviews with the designer, they've very much intended that draws are more reliable than a lot of CCGs. Between the flexible mulligan and the ability to potentially cycle your hand every turn, the odds are VERY high that you're going to get the cards you need, and quickly. Hopefully they'll remember that while they're testing, but good bad or otherwise it is an essential part of the game design.

True, I did grab the wrong stat, because there's about a 3% chance you draw both copies and you'd want AT LEAST one of a specific card so you have a 31% to draw at least one copy that you have 2 of in your deck.

Not sure what you mean by mulligan "aggressively", we only get one mulligan, and If you put all 5 cards back and draw again, you still have a 31% chance to draw at least one of those cards.

I haven't done the math but I'd think that getting at least 1 copy of 2 different cards would be lower than 24%, you may be right though.

Not sure what you mean by mulligan "aggressively", we only get one mulligan, and If you put all 5 cards back and draw again, you still have a 31% chance to draw at least one of those cards.

I haven't done the math but I'd think that getting at least 1 copy of 2 different cards would be lower than 24%, you may be right though.

Aggressive mulligan means going after that specific card no matter what else you have in your opening hand. If you're aiming for a Jetpack, you throw the Holdout Blaster and both Backup Muscles back.... Not always the best choice, but the most straightforward when you're trying to evaluate draw probability.

Pretty sure the 24% is right, I've got a brute-force draw tester that has been verified for a number of situations.

Not sure what you mean by mulligan "aggressively", we only get one mulligan, and If you put all 5 cards back and draw again, you still have a 31% chance to draw at least one of those cards.

I haven't done the math but I'd think that getting at least 1 copy of 2 different cards would be lower than 24%, you may be right though.

Aggressive mulligan means going after that specific card no matter what else you have in your opening hand. If you're aiming for a Jetpack, you throw the Holdout Blaster and both Backup Muscles back.... Not always the best choice, but the most straightforward when you're trying to evaluate draw probability.

Pretty sure the 24% is right, I've got a brute-force draw tester that has been verified for a number of situations.

Okay, that makes sense, I remember playing magic and an aggressive mulligan was mulliganing more than once (I think they changed that rule since I've quite)

Anyway I was getting 48% and was unsure of how you got the 52% chance but I double checked my math and stats theory and I was getting the results of NOT getting one of a card in either draws, apparently my statistics skills are rusty and forgot to subtract from 1 an additional time.

1 - (1 - 0.31) squared = ~ 52%

I think its more of a LGS issue. None of mine have product, sure I can get it online but as a more casual gamer I'd prefer to buy a few packs each time I visit and not boxes.

i bought all 4 of my boxes from my FLGS

randomly, separate days apart from one another with at least 2-3 days in between each purchase, and there were still plenty of boxes left

I think its more of a LGS issue. None of mine have product, sure I can get it online but as a more casual gamer I'd prefer to buy a few packs each time I visit and not boxes.

i bought all 4 of my boxes from my FLGS

randomly, separate days apart from one another with at least 2-3 days in between each purchase, and there were still plenty of boxes left

I live in a fairly small area, so our LGS only got in a couple boxes total. I think my FLGS has gotten 4 boxes total.

Small 6 man tourney at our local store the other day:

Vader/2x trooper (3-0 in swiss, won a decider game)

eLuke/Rey (3-0 in swiss, lost a decider)

eGrevious/Jango (2-1)

Ackbar/Rey/Padawan (2-1)

eRey/Finn (1-2)

Luke/eRey (0-3)

Good little tourney. Vader very strong, although my dice abandonded me in the decider.

Can't complain though, double legendary in the packs I won

As a small contribution, a fresh outcome of the first tournament in my área (Brazil):

1st place - eRey/eQGJ

2nd place - eRey/eQGJ

3rd place - eRey/eHan

4th place - eRey/eQGJ

I kid you not.

That makes some sense as most people have eRey quickly available and supply is so low. e(anything else) is tough to get right now.

Spoiler alert: people not in North America have no problem getting product.

Mind = blown?

As a small contribution, a fresh outcome of the first tournament in my área (Brazil):

1st place - eRey/eQGJ

2nd place - eRey/eQGJ

3rd place - eRey/eHan

4th place - eRey/eQGJ

I kid you not.

That makes some sense as most people have eRey quickly available and supply is so low. e(anything else) is tough to get right now.

Spoiler alert: people not in North America have no problem getting product.

Mind = blown?

That is crazy isn't it, because we are buying it quicker or we got less stock? I know I can go online and get a box easily, but I just want to buy packs when I pick up my comic books. That seems to be the biggest problem in my area.

You guys in the US are buying things up quicker. I might go into a bit of stereotyping here, but I'd say on average US gamers have more disposable income and are more prone to going 'all-in' on a game like this. Locally people are visibly surprised when I tell them I bought two boxes, but going on the internet it seems like everyone and their dog in the US want at least four each. Also, I'd say you probably get more gamers-per-capita and Star Wars, while big everywhere, is definetly biggest in the States. This all combines into a shortage for you guys, but not us in Europe. The game still sells like hot cakes here, but retailers have no problems in ordering more from the distributors because apparently Europe and ROW allocation estimates were spot-on. It was underestimated in the US, prolly because initially everyone and their dog called FFG the literal devil when they first announced this game.

Fortunately/unfortunately (depending on whether one is more of a hoarder or more of a seller) it means that the frankly ridiculous US singles pricing created by the supply problem in your neck of he woods is largely translating to non-US secondary markets as well, since even people here in Poland can demand a high price and just hop on eBay if they don't get a sale locally.

I think the exact opposite. Tusken Raider not only fits Vader's cost neatly, he's a high-damage (three sides), melee focused (two sides melee) character who brings in yellow cards. I'm not sure what you expect to get which would fit any more optimally than the Raider. I don't believe Vader will get a better partner anytime soon.

Try him with Bala-tik. I think you'll be surprised.

~D

Ran eJango and eVeers last night for the first time to see what it was about and holy crap is it good. I was able to put 8 damage on Kylo in the first round. I read above that Han/Rey could be a problem for it? I am not sure about that. After playing both, I really feel like Jango/Veers was vastly superior. Of course a lot of it has to do with the card draw and dice luck, but I beat a mill deck and eKylo/Vader pretty easily. Any thoughts on counters to this monster?

Ran eJango and eVeers last night for the first time to see what it was about and holy crap is it good. I was able to put 8 damage on Kylo in the first round. I read above that Han/Rey could be a problem for it? I am not sure about that. After playing both, I really feel like Jango/Veers was vastly superior. Of course a lot of it has to do with the card draw and dice luck, but I beat a mill deck and eKylo/Vader pretty easily. Any thoughts on counters to this monster?

Pass a lot. Force the Jango player to activate normally. Try to win the battlefield more to keep the tempo in your favor.

Sounds elementary but kill Jango. If Han/Rey is going first and has Ambush upgrades for Rey to combo into (not outside the realm of possibility) they will be able to shoot first before Jango/Veers. Starship Graveyard means this combo can continue indefinitely. One or two upgrades on Han means Jango is a god roll away from being dead. And if you've been playing with Jango then you know god rolls happen.

I'm not saying Jango/Veers cannot win this matchup (it can). But the Han/Rey deck is the faster of the 2 potentially.

Sounds elementary but kill Jango. If Han/Rey is going first and has Ambush upgrades for Rey to combo into (not outside the realm of possibility) they will be able to shoot first before Jango/Veers. Starship Graveyard means this combo can continue indefinitely. One or two upgrades on Han means Jango is a god roll away from being dead. And if you've been playing with Jango then you know god rolls happen.

I'm not saying Jango/Veers cannot win this matchup (it can). But the Han/Rey deck is the faster of the 2 potentially.

I have thought about this and it all depends on the decks, but the typical eHan/eRey deck that is talked out online gets smashed by the eJango/eVeers deck I have.

And I have done a lot of test games around this against a great opponent.