To get a 90% chance to get "one" of every rare/legendary card?

Has anyone mathed this out?

Is it three booster boxes? Four?

100% chance if you buy the single on csi or mm

im at 3 boxes and 8 packs and i still have not pulled my own quigon, jabba, kylo saber, luke saber, one with the force, launch bay. my personal opinion would be 4-6 and even then, there's no guarantee you would even get a playset of everything

but mathematically? there are 6 legendaries per box and 17? current legendaries in this set? so if you got 3 perfectly packaged boxes, it's possible.

100% chance if you buy the single on csi or mm

Truth!

At a certain point, it's not whether you're pulling them from boxes at ~$90 a pop to get 3 or 4 particular cards you still need and couldn't trade for when you can buy the singles for those cards for $70 with shipping.

This is a tad more complex than I have time for at the moment (a few minutes at work), but there's a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation that is similar to what you're looking for: the expected number of packs that you would need to open to get a particular Legendary or Rare card (say, Vader or Dooku).

Each pack has a 1 in 6 chance of containing a Legendary. Each Legendary has a 1 in 17 chance of being Vader. So each pack has a (1/6)*(1/17) = (1/102) chance of containing a Vader. So we'd expect to open 102 packs to get a Vader.

Each pack has a 5 in 6 chance of containing a Rare. Each Rare has a 1 in 43 chance of being Dooku. So each pack has a (5/6)*(1/43) = (5/258) chance of containing Dooku. 258/5 = 51.6, so we'd expect to open 52 packs to get a Dooku.

I'm pretty sure we can't just say "open 102 packs and you'll probably get one of each," but I feel confident that if you open 4 boxes you'll get enough to trade spares for the ones you don't open.

On coolstuffinc.com. interestingly, the 17 Legendary cars right now retail at $407 total.

I think I counted about $95 for the 43 rares they have listed

Probably about $25 for the uncommon they have listed.

So that's about $525 cost for an entire set, not including commons (probably get them from your friends for free) from CSI.

The question then becomes...

1. If I just bought 4, 5, booster boxes at $90 each totaling $360 or $450 and buy any missing off the secondary market? Sell any extras to reduce my overall cost?

2. Buy two of the complete sets from Team Covenant, which I heard are $300 each?

3. Something else

This is a tad more complex than I have time for at the moment (a few minutes at work), but there's a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation that is similar to what you're looking for: the expected number of packs that you would need to open to get a particular Legendary or Rare card (say, Vader or Dooku).

Each pack has a 1 in 6 chance of containing a Legendary. Each Legendary has a 1 in 17 chance of being Vader. So each pack has a (1/6)*(1/17) = (1/102) chance of containing a Vader. So we'd expect to open 102 packs to get a Vader.

Each pack has a 5 in 6 chance of containing a Rare. Each Rare has a 1 in 43 chance of being Dooku. So each pack has a (5/6)*(1/43) = (5/258) chance of containing Dooku. 258/5 = 51.6, so we'd expect to open 52 packs to get a Dooku.

I'm pretty sure we can't just say "open 102 packs and you'll probably get one of each," but I feel confident that if you open 4 boxes you'll get enough to trade spares for the ones you don't open.

This is perfect answer.

4 boxes = $360 on CSI, and should give enough odds of good stuff to trade them or sell them to finish off any misses.

Thank you!

On coolstuffinc.com. interestingly, the 17 Legendary cars right now retail at $407 total.

I think I counted about $95 for the 43 rares they have listed

Probably about $25 for the uncommon they have listed.

So that's about $525 cost for an entire set, not including commons (probably get them from your friends for free) from CSI.

The question then becomes...

1. If I just bought 4, 5, booster boxes at $90 each totaling $360 or $450 and buy any missing off the secondary market? Sell any extras to reduce my overall cost?

2. Buy two of the complete sets from Team Covenant, which I heard are $300 each?

3. Something else

You would think saga sets would gradually bring down the prices of those legendaries on the singles market, since its a cheaper alternative

With six Legendaries per box and no dupes, plus 17 Legendaries in the set, if you bought three boxes and were ridiculously lucky you could get one of each and a spare. And maybe your spare would be Vader. And then you're so lucky it's stupid.

Cost of a box is about $90, so times theee is $270. Or go in on one of those complete sets offered for $300 by Team Covenent.

Want to go in 1/2's Brettspielcafe...?

100% chance if you buy the single on csi or mm

Sorry they stands for...?

100% chance if you buy the single on csi or mm

Sorry they stands for...?

Coolstuffinc.com, Miniaturesmarket

Coolstuffinc.com, Miniaturesmarket

Thank you )

With six Legendaries per box and no dupes, plus 17 Legendaries in the set, if you bought three boxes and were ridiculously lucky you could get one of each and a spare. And maybe your spare would be Vader. And then you're so lucky it's stupid.

Cost of a box is about $90, so times theee is $270. Or go in on one of those complete sets offered for $300 by Team Covenent.

Dont forget several cards are starter only, so you have to buy 2 starters so thats another $30. So youve reached $300.

However, youre not going to have the extra legendary and 36 rares and plenty of uncommons/commons. But you risk pulling lots of repeats and such. If the Saga sets had been $250/ea then theyd of been a great purchase. As is, Team Covenant makes a killing (they pay about $45/box as a retailer).

~D

I bought 6 boxes. I was missing 1 card to complete the set and 4 cards to have 2 of everything. It took me 2 days to trade and complete my full playset with plenty of extras to trade or build multiple decks.

I posted this very thing on reddit a while back. Here is the link.

https://www.reddit.com/r/swdestiny/comments/5dsf2f/never_tell_me_the_odds/

85 legendary packs, set m to 17 k to 17 (ie you want all 17 of 17 possible cards) set q to .90 % chance of getting it answer is X = 85 legendary card buys to have 90% chance of having 1 of each

85 legendary packs x 6 = 510 boosters / 36 = 14.16 boxes to get a 90% chance of having every legendary (odds are you'll 5-6 of some by then)

http://randomservices.org/distributions/CouponCollector/Calculator.html

That is just if you want all the Legendary cards and don't want to trade / buy. Getting all the rares is much easier only took me 2.5 boosters with trading for a near complete play set.

While the game is more expensive than and LCG even with just 1 set / year. I'm having fun, here's to hoping FFG doesn't screw it up.

I just spent $25 shipped for 2 legendary dice that I haven't pulled yet (with a number of rares that I needed dupes of thrown in). AT-ST and Launch Bay. I would say if you are buying boxes or boosters trying to get a Darth Vader, go for it. If you are trying to get a cheaper legendary, just buy the single.

I posted this very thing on reddit a while back. Here is the link.

https://www.reddit.com/r/swdestiny/comments/5dsf2f/never_tell_me_the_odds/

85 legendary packs, set m to 17 k to 17 (ie you want all 17 of 17 possible cards) set q to .90 % chance of getting it answer is X = 85 legendary card buys to have 90% chance of having 1 of each

85 legendary packs x 6 = 510 boosters / 36 = 14.16 boxes to get a 90% chance of having every legendary (odds are you'll 5-6 of some by then)

http://randomservices.org/distributions/CouponCollector/Calculator.html

That is just if you want all the Legendary cards and don't want to trade / buy. Getting all the rares is much easier only took me 2.5 boosters with trading for a near complete play set.

While the game is more expensive than and LCG even with just 1 set / year. I'm having fun, here's to hoping FFG doesn't screw it up.

This is absolutely valid for drawing random with replacement. I have to admit, though, I have yet to see any single display have multiples of any Legendary, which means that the probability isn't exactly random with replacement.

Nevertheless, I think that in the end, the simplification is more or less accurate for how many you would need for 90% assured set.

Thinking of it differently, though, you probably would want 4 cases rather than 3 for the ability to trade some of your extra legendary dice for your missing dice with the understanding that you might not luck out with extra valuable legendary dice, and you might have to trade for a Darth/Han/Luke/Force choke at the end.

Yeah, your odds will improve a little bit assuming no duplicate legendaries in a box.

First number is the number of boxes, 2nd is the chance of getting all 17 legendaries if we assume 6 unique legendaries per box:

3 - 0.005%

4 - 1%

5 - 8%

6 - 22%

7 - 40%

8 - 57%

9 - 70%

10 - 80%

11 - 86%

12 - 91%

13 - 94%

14 - 96%

15 - 98%

With six Legendaries per box and no dupes, plus 17 Legendaries in the set, if you bought three boxes and were ridiculously lucky you could get one of each and a spare. And maybe your spare would be Vader. And then you're so lucky it's stupid.

Or you have my luck and get 3 legendaries in 11 packs, 2 of them being Vader.