I’d like to preface this post with my background as an avid Magic: the Gathering player. This exercise approaches Star Wars: Destiny from a Magic mindset and attempts to replicate the Sealed format of that game. That is, players open a certain number of booster packs, make a deck that obeys regular deckbuilding rules from the contents, and play against other opponents doing the same. I was introduced to Star Wars: Destiny by my brother, who went to a Launch event and bought both Starter Decks and a box (maybe two?). This game is wonderful and I intend to purchase product myself as soon as my FLGS gets it back in stock. That said, I am very new to the game, and this post relies on a few hypothetical assumptions about deckbuilding that may just be completely false. These are as follows:
(1) A hypothetical Sealed Pool will need at least 3 Character cards of the same Faction in order for deckbuilding to be viable.
(2) Above some minimum threshold, the number of packs in the pool will be sufficient to provide enough non-Character cards to build a 30-card deck that follows deckbuilding rules based on Character choice.
Assumption (1) informs the rest of this exercise and is the basis for determining the appropriate number of packs with which to play “Magic-style” Sealed Star Wars: Destiny.
First, let’s look at the distribution of card types that are available in booster packs. In the Awakenings set, there are 17 Legendary cards and 43 Rare cards that are available in packs. Of these, 6 Legendaries and 15 Rares are Character cards. Let’s assume that all Legendaries are equally likely to appear and that all Rares are equally likely to appear. So a Legendary card has a 6/17 = 35.3% chance of being a Character. Similarly, a Rare card has a 15/43 = 34.9% chance of being a Character. To simplify, we can say that each pack has a 35% chance of containing a Character. For the full distribution of Rares and Legendaries (in terms of Faction, Color, and Character/Non-Character), please refer to Figure 1. The odds that any given pack contains a Rare or Legendary with particular characteristics are displayed in Figure 2.
From this, we can calculate the odds that a Sealed pool of N packs will contain 3 or more Character cards of one Faction, which is our criterion for Sealed pool viability. I did the calculations in an Excel spreadsheet that I unfortunately can't post here because it's an Excel file. I can explain the math in a subsequent post if anyone would like to see it. Figure 3 shows that 21 packs is the minimum necessary such that we have a ~95% chance of having a viable Sealed pool. If we buy packs at $3 each, that’s $63 for a Sealed event. Ugh.
However, let’s consider another option! Instead of building a 30-Card, 30-Character-Point deck, what if we were to build a 20-Card, 20-Character-Point deck? There’s precedent for this in Star Wars: Destiny in that the Starter decks are only 20 cards. There’s precedent for this in Magic in that Sealed decks have a 40-card minimum, not 60. This lets us relax Assumption (1) to only need 2 Character cards instead of 3. Figure 4 shows that with 14 packs, we have a 94.8% chance of a viable Sealed pool. At $3 per pack, this costs $42, which is still high but much more palatable than before. If we lower the acceptable viability rate to 90%, we can reduce the pool size to 12 packs, for $36. This is even more appealing because 12 packs is exactly one-third of a booster box.
This looks good, but now we are at the point that a full tenth of Sealed pools will open 0 Characters, only 1 Character, or 2 Characters of opposing factions. What do these players do? Fortunately, the change to Assumption (1) provides a satisfying answer: the Starter Decks. In the case that a player’s Sealed pool does not contain at least 2 Characters of the same faction, that player must choose one Starter Decklist and play that. This is not as exciting as getting to build one’s own deck, but at least the person gets to play. It might even benefit the player, in that the starter decks are already built with consistent strategies in mind and the Characters happen to sum to a little over 20 points (eKylo + Nightsister = 21, Rey + Finn = 22). Perhaps the solution to the “insufficient Characters in Sealed pool” problem is simply to pick Starter Characters and to build the deck from the pool that was opened. This pool will be actually be a little better than the other players’ pools, due to having more non-Character Rares and Legendaries.
Star Wars: Destiny and Magic are truly different games. Perhaps attempting to apply one’s formats to the other is a futile effort. However, I'd like to think that some form of Limited play is out there, and that the value of players’ packs is more than simply the sum of the value of the contents. When I can finally get my hands on a box, I’m definitely going to try out 18-pack, 30/30 Sealed with my brother! Thanks for reading!
Considerations after-the-fact:
(1) I didn’t take into account the possibility of opening multiple copies of the same Unique character. This would further reduce the likelihood of a Sealed pool being viable.
(2) I didn’t take into account the possibility of opening 2 characters (or 3, in the first case) whose non-elite values sum to more than 20 (or 30). Consider the Sealed pool whose only characters are Luke Skywalker and Poe Dameron.
a. Do we relax the 20-point rule? “Wow, that pool’s amazingly good.”
b. Do we enforce the rule? “Wow, that pool’s terrible,” or perhaps “You get the starter deck/Characters.”
(3) I’m not sure how safe Assumption (2) is. This assumption is further strained by the change to Assumption (1), as we’d be opening fewer packs, which means we’d be less likely to get on-color, on-Faction cards to play with the characters we do open. Not to mention opening at least one Battlefield.
TL;DR 12 packs, 20 cards, 20 character points seems to be the best option if this is ever going to work.