There is no way that Elrond isn't winning round 5 and making it to the semi finals. None of the heroes he will be facing until then are anywhere near his power level of over 9000

Well, Elrond is killing right now with 95% of the vote.

The difficult ones:

Sam-Merry:I'm going for Sam because of Halbarad (either), Bill, Son of Arnor, make no notice, hobbit cloak and comon cause.

Aragorn-Beorn:I decide Beorn only because the search web helped me while writing this.

Gandalf-Glorfindel:Gandalf is mainly powerful because his toys, but that makes him interesting and fun. Glorfy is just plain bad design.

Elrond-Erkenbrand:Down from the hills leaped Erkenbrand, lord of Westfold. Elrond smashed him with ultrahealing, ultrarecruiting and The One Ring to Put Them All into Play.

There is no way that Elrond isn't winning round 5 and making it to the semi finals. None of the heroes he will be facing until then are anywhere near his power level of over 9000

If we're just talking raw power, then I think a lot of people would make the case for Erestor.

The Winners and the Losers
(The bottom 47 or "those that did not make the top 32")

The Bottom 3:

Fatty Bolger

Pippin (S)

Oin

These are the same bottom three as last year... ouch...

The Losers (dropped by 10 or more positions)

Na'asiyah [-10]

Faramir (Lo) [-11]

Denethor (Lo) [-14]

Lanwyn [-14]

Halbarad [-15]

Rossiel [-16]

Aragorn (Le) [-18]

Galdor of the Havens [-27]

Damrod [-29]

The Winners (jumped up by 10 or more positions)

Caldara [+23]

Legolas (S) [+22]

Prince Imrahil (T) [+20]

Glóin [+18]

Mirlonde [+18]

Beregond (S) [+14]

Gimli (Le) [+14]

A lot of things make sense from this data. Sure Glóin and Caldara got knocked out early, but "Glóin Jank" and the Caldara deck were really popular this year. Likewise, they saw a jump in votes.

We didn't have Swiss rounds (gosh that would have been awful), so it's impossible to take any of this as absolute. There are outliers.
For instance, Damrod dropped 29 places! I thought we loved Damrod and trap decks? Well, he went up against Éowyn (T) and got slaughtered. Luck of the draw on that one.

Well I think it's good to see that the bottom three heroes stayed the same. They are mostly trash and no balanced card will ever change that, what is sad, but at least FFG didn't release an other wet noodle

The Denethor dropping places is Lore, isn't he?

Holy crap! 3 different 50% splits as of my vote. Frodo vs Faramir (Le), Eowyn (S) vs Celeborn and Haldir vs Dain. My votes are to the top bracket in each of those!

As much as I love Galadriel, I'd still pick the resource generation of Mablung since Tactics just doesn't have a reliable way to gain extra resources - especially with the change to the Horn.

I'm in the majority vote everywhere else. The only tricky vote for me this time around was Eomer/Eowyn.

Frodo vs. Faramir was a very difficult decision for me, and is still split at 50% after my vote (I eventually ended up choosing Faramir for his extreme versatility). I would have expected Arwen vs. Denethor to be evenly split, but Arwen is winning with 60% as of my vote. Surprising - I think Denethor opens up a ton of space for new decks (Arwen does too, but I think to a lesser extent) and is a pretty amazing hero.

Glorfindel, Denethor, and Mablung all falling behind is a big disappointment. Those guys all rock. Celeborn beating Eowyn is also sad, but that could still turn around. I guess I have a strong preference for flexible, splashable heroes. Celeborn, Galadriel, and Gandalf are all a bit more limited in their application I find. The Arwen Denethor matchup is really tough, and I'm pretty sure she's being picked because she's an attractive elf girl and Denethor is an old man. Pity.

Well I think it's good to see that the bottom three heroes stayed the same. They are mostly trash and no balanced card will ever change that, what is sad, but at least FFG didn't release an other wet noodle

I think there are balanced cards that could at least make them more playable.

SpPippin needs two things:

1) Good hobbit heroes that synergize with -- or at least don't actively work against -- his ability.

2) A compelling reason to put enemies back into staging

At 2-wp for 6 threat he's got fairly efficient bones for a spirit quester, but the only hobbit with a complementary ability is LoPippin, which is no help at all. And none of the hobbit heroes have an ability that wants enemies in staging. If SpPippin's ability weren't restricted to all-hobbit decks, he might be a useful part of Dunhere, Haldir, LoFaramir, and trap decks already. If LoPippin were LoMerry, SpPipppin might already find himself in some hobbit decks as well.

Fatty's ability is already situationally useful and powerful, and works well with a role as defender, which is the best fit for his meager stats. The main problem is that 2/3 is too fragile for a hero defender, so unless hero Dori is out he can't defend without substantial buffing. And the best Hobbit defender buffs are Bill the Pony, Hobbit Cloak, and Staff of Lebethron, all of which are same sphere as Sam and two resources cheaper for him. So even though Fatty has a little better defensive bones, Sam can defend almost as well against higher threat enemies, for less resources, while also questing for three, for just 1 more threat and without raising threat as part of his ability. What Fatty needs is a hobbit-friendly defensive attachment *in spirit*.

Oin needs action advantage, a mount, and Elfhelm on the table. Obviously that requires 2+ decks, but if Dain and Elfhelm are in play, same-sphere Windfola with a 5-dwarf deck would let him quest for four or attack for four, not bad at all for an 8-cost hero. What's really needed is a dwarfish mount (a pony, obviously) that allows post-questing readiness, that'd be gold for Oin (and Thorin and Dain).

The Arwen Denethor matchup is really tough, and I'm pretty sure she's being picked because she's an attractive elf girl and Denethor is an old man. Pity.

Also she is repeatable resource generation (or card draw with Elven Light) where old man Denethor is just a burst econ and then is just a solid defender. Sure, it depends on what you need, but in a vacuum, Arwen is just better long term.

The Arwen Denethor matchup is really tough, and I'm pretty sure she's being picked because she's an attractive elf girl and Denethor is an old man. Pity.

Also she is repeatable resource generation (or card draw with Elven Light) where old man Denethor is just a burst econ and then is just a solid defender. Sure, it depends on what you need, but in a vacuum, Arwen is just better long term.

Arwen might be better long term, but I feel that a lot of quests are decided in the first 2-3 rounds (or at least the trajectory is set). The resources Denethor provides on round 1 are far more valuable than resources you could get from Arwen on rounds 7 and 8.

I guess I have a strong preference for flexible, splashable heroes. Celeborn, Galadriel, and Gandalf are all a bit more limited in their application I find.

Um... what?

Celeborn I'll grant you, he's limited to Silvan decks by design. But Galadriel is one of the most splashable heroes, offering repeatable threat reduction and card draw, plus action advantage for your allies; and the only reason Gandalf isn't also one of the most splashable heroes in the game is that he's 14 threat. His ability, in addition to being de facto card draw, is incredibly flexible and lets you do basically whatever you want with him. I don't get how you can see those two as limited.

Time for a matchup spotlight!

A-killin' in Ithilien

This matchup spotlight is on that Captain of Gondor, Faramir, and the Ringbearer himself, Frodo Baggins!

Faramir says:

I am your favorite "what if" hero. What if I had joined the Fellowship instead of my brother Boromir? What if I had taken the Ring from Frodo in Ithilien? What if I had burned with my father Denethor? What if my Lore version art was on my Leadership card? What if I have to face my brother in the semi-finals? So many possibilities, my friends. But beyond those are certainties. Excepting Treebeard himself, only I can rouse an Ent on the turn it is played. But I do it for free. Only I can give you an extra game-saving use from your core Gandalf, or let leadership Anborn use his ability and attack as well. Vote for Faramir, friends, and see your allies' strength grow.

I guess I have a strong preference for flexible, splashable heroes. Celeborn, Galadriel, and Gandalf are all a bit more limited in their application I find.

Um... what?

Celeborn I'll grant you, he's limited to Silvan decks by design. But Galadriel is one of the most splashable heroes, offering repeatable threat reduction and card draw, plus action advantage for your allies; and the only reason Gandalf isn't also one of the most splashable heroes in the game is that he's 14 threat. His ability, in addition to being de facto card draw, is incredibly flexible and lets you do basically whatever you want with him. I don't get how you can see those two as limited.

Galadriel can't help in the early game without Nenya, so you are forced to select heroes with high WP and action advantage, like the classic Boromir-Glorfindel deck. In multiplayer, I completely agree that she's quite splashable though. Gandalf though? His toys and style of play really do dominate a deck. I find that whenever I toss Gandalf in, this needy fellow demands all sorts of changes.

Loving the Matchup Spotlights Grandspleen! Keep them up!

I guess I have a strong preference for flexible, splashable heroes. Celeborn, Galadriel, and Gandalf are all a bit more limited in their application I find.

Um... what?

Celeborn I'll grant you, he's limited to Silvan decks by design. But Galadriel is one of the most splashable heroes, offering repeatable threat reduction and card draw, plus action advantage for your allies; and the only reason Gandalf isn't also one of the most splashable heroes in the game is that he's 14 threat. His ability, in addition to being de facto card draw, is incredibly flexible and lets you do basically whatever you want with him. I don't get how you can see those two as limited.

Galadriel can't help in the early game without Nenya, so you are forced to select heroes with high WP and action advantage, like the classic Boromir-Glorfindel deck. In multiplayer, I completely agree that she's quite splashable though. Gandalf though? His toys and style of play really do dominate a deck. I find that whenever I toss Gandalf in, this needy fellow demands all sorts of changes.

In most of my decks with Galadriel, Nenya isn't even included. Also, in the decks where it is included, it is usually only there to give her access to Lore with the upside of maybe being able to use its ability. Occasionally the ability from Nenya comes in handy, but nearly every turn I'm using her threat reduction/card draw ability instead. Her passive ability definitely helps in the beginning, so I'm not sure what you mean by her not being able to help without Nenya. Galadriel could have 0 willpower and she would still be used in my decks.

I'd say she is quite a bit stronger in solo than in multiplayer, mainly because she allows you to control the game by keeping your threat down and drawing an extra card per turn.

Edit: Also, Cirdan beating Erestor right now is bonkers.

Matchups get more exciting in this round:

Cirdan vs Erestor is a powermatchup and I'm a little surprised that Cirdan leads Erestor right now. I voted for him because he is such a strong hero especially in multiplayer. But I thought that Erestor has a wide fanbase and that he would outhype Cirdan. We will see but I root for Cirdan and really hope he can stay on top of Erestor.

Gandalf vs Glorfindel is another matchup with two heroes that have made deep runs in former years but I guess Gandalf will win that matchup because you can go crazy with his abilities and toys.

Arwen vs Denethor (LE) is the third matchup I would spotlight because both heroes seem to be very popular when it comes to deckbuilding right now. Denethor gives you a jumpstart at the beginning of the game but (at least to me) falls of as the game goes on. Arwen is more versatile when it comes to resource generation because you don't have to place the resource on Arwen if you don't need another spirit resource. So for me it was clear who would receive my vote but I could see Denethor causing an "upset" here.

Each other matchup was not hard for me to vote on. What do you guys think? Especially the first matchup mentioned is really hard because either hero would have won against 70% of all other heroes in Round 3 for sure.

The Frodo and Faramir (Le) match-up being so close really surprised me. Don't get me wrong, Frodo is a great card and I have used him to achieve great many victories. But, with the alt-art Faramir recently coming out, I have built decks just so Faramir hits the table. I want to see my flashy new card in use. Honestly, I thought this detail alone would push Faramir well past Frodo. I suppose in-hind sight this is lunacy - there is no president for an "alt-art bump".

It's also startling to see Celeborn being so close to Éowyn. I would have thought Éowyn would blow him away. Perhaps we're starting to get a little fatigued and she's going the way of Glorfindel (powerful but a little too omnipresent)?

I also thought people were in love with Haldir. Like, I thought we were all members of his fan-club. To see Dain doing so well against is surprising.

I'm still a member of the Haldir fan-club. Dain can go jump off a mountain.

Dain's the only hero who can dominate a game while standing around doing nothing. Whether that's a reason to vote for him or against him is a matter of taste.

Too be fair, he is crazy powerful. But I prefer the more interesting mechanics - and 3 attack Ranged Silvan out of Lore - more than standing global buffs.

Since there's no stated criteria, it's certainly valid to vote for "more interesting" over "more powerful", and vice versa. If there were stated criteria, the contest would be more predictable, I think.

I do wish past winners were excluded from the contest, and the brackets were "regionalized" by sphere.

Since there's no stated criteria, it's certainly valid to vote for "more interesting" over "more powerful", and vice versa. If there were stated criteria, the contest would be more predictable, I think.

I do wish past winners were excluded from the contest, and the brackets were "regionalized" by sphere.

I know that something has to change for next year. There was not enough competition in the first two round (very few tight races and upsets). We spent the first two rounds in a sort-of meat grinder and now we're getting to the really good match-ups. This is a product of using prior years' results. The effects keep compounding. This has caused the worst heroes to make their to the bottom and stay there and the best to make there way to the top.

I almost did this by sphere. The top four would then be composed of one representative form each sphere. I opted not to this in the final hour because I felt the variation in match-ups would be inhibited. For instance we wouldn't get great match-ups like Ciridan and Erestor or Arwen and Denethor. I really like the idea of having wildly different heroes facing off.

Maybe each sphere could send 4 heroes. The top 16 would then be re-seeded. That wouldn't make the competition any longer to finish and it would allow for early in-sphere fighting. I guess that is sort-of how NCAA basketball works. Most of the games are in-conference and then top teams from each conference are re-seeded into the March bracket (I know it doesn't quite work that way).

I really like the idea of excluding past winners

I'd be down for excluding past winners. Then, after a few years, we could do a "champion's showdown" and crown a "best of the best" hero.