Inspired by the post about probability https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/233951-the-galaxys-fate-in-my-hand-an-ia-probability-compendium/ and the strength (or not) of the white dice https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/233712-the-x-files-or-all-about-my-dislike-of-the-dodge-result/, I thought that I would take a look at just how strong the white dice really is.

So, to start with I thought I'd look at how basic rStormtroopers and eStormtroopers fare - because these are the most numerous units in both campaign and skirmish.

The chart below shows the probability of scoring at least a certain minimum amount of damage for each of these units against the two dice:

https://flic.kr/p/PEDRP7

rStormtroopers are way better off attacking a white dice than a black dice. No matter how much damage you're aiming for, you're always more likely to get it against the white dice than the black. The dodge is no stronger than the triple block.

For eStormtroopers, things are different. The white dice has roughly twice the probability of eliminating all damage. However, it's worth noting that there's still a 7.5% chance of getting no damage through with an eStormtrooper against the black dice.

The conclusion is clear to me though. If probability is against you then you'll fluff plenty of attacks regardless of the defence dice, if you're playing with anything that hits no harder than an eStormtrooper. So those quoted cases of 6 dodges are just as bad as the 6 triple blocks when it comes to having defending figures survive key attacks.

And this comes back to the reason for all the posts and discussion on the white dice in the first place. The dodge on the white dice feels much more significant than the triple block on the black dice. And to me, that's something to be celebrated.

P.S. Of course, this doesn't hold at all for the big hitters like Vader and RGC. In these cases the white dice is simply a huge risk. However the Deadly ability of the Inquisitor renders the white dice even more frail (equivalent to just one evade). Going forward, a world where Deadly becomes the norm should see characters with a white dice plus built-in evade as far more valuable than the basic white dice.

The answer to this question is always:

It depends.

You can control for some variables in a mathematical comparison but these conditions widely in actual gameplay, so it's difficult to make any strict conclusions other than white is better against large attacks and black is more consistent against smaller attacks.

Basically, it depends on surge abilities available.

Surge for +2 Damage or Pierce mean the black dice becomes weaker, while the white dice becomes stronger.

And of course, there's the infamous X-man, who appears when you make your only big focused attack, and ruins everyone's day...

If it's straight up damage with little surge use necessary, so Red Dice attacks will prefer the white dice over black...

With the disproportionate amount of blanks I roll (seriously, the Imperial Player in our last campaign even admitted that he always targets me first because I can't roll white defense so I'm the easiest to wound), I'd be more than happy to always roll black until the end of time on any figure against any attack.

5 damage is about the breakpoint when white starts saving more than black, and 5 is pretty much any elite, beasts, probe droids, trandoshans, or any regular with focus.

4 is another important number because all units can hit for 4 and doing 1 point and getting a condition/blast/cleave off is important and the black die can only block 3 while the white can avoid it all.

The black die is only flat out better in the 1-3 damage range.

But to make matters worse the most common units with the white die, officers, get rerolls, in campaign so does Diala. On top of that many white die units get additional defense on top of the white die, like R2-D2 who dodges on a blank, Han Solo who gets extra block on evades, Bossk who gets an extra block, Grand Inquisitor which is gaurenteed a block, Nexu who get bonus block on evade...

There are practically no white defense figures that don't get some sort of bonus on top of the white die! So even if the black die comes out being better in the 1-3 wound range... it comes out worse against most figures when they add their bonus.

The real issue is that there is just a little too much variance in the game. The white die is the poster child, but as the OP said, strings of 3 block can get just as ridiculous. The thing is, you can at least still accomplish something in the game if they roll 3 block repeatedly. However, you can do nothing against dodge outside of command cards/abilities that help you there (and those aren't unlimited and you can't always use them because of yet more randomness).

let's take some math and answer which defense die is better.

unit / average damage vs 1 black die / average damage vs 1 white die

elite stormtrooper / 2.18 / 2.19

so if we take most used unit now, we can say average damage vs white and black die is the same. same situation if we take in account all existing units in imperial assault.

the difference is because some units is statistically better vs black die and some units is better vs white die.

if you are interested in my calculations, i show you top 5 units, based on average attack per cost (average attack / single unit cost) vs 1 black die and vs 1 white die.

top 5 units based on average damage per cost vs 1 black die:

1 Probe Droid Regular 2 Hired Gun Regular 3 Greedo Unique 4 Tusken Raider Elite 5 Rebel Saboteur Regular

top 5 units based on average damage per cost vs 1 white die:

1 Tusken Raider Regular 2 Hired Gun Regular 3 Jet Trooper Regular 4 Stormtrooper Regular 5 Wing Guard Regular

However, the complaint levelled at the white dice isn't to do with average damage, but its "swingyness". People often quote the cases where multiple dodges in a row ruin the game due to the relatively low number of attacks made in a skirmish game. The important conclusion (in my opinion) is that the black dice is pretty much as bad as the white for potentially ruining your day. The white dice just feels more swingy (again, excepting high damage attacks).

2- dice for attacking = black die

3+ dice for attacking = white die

Easy peasy.

~D

One of the strategy in skirmish (I don't know how good it actually is, because you are spending some of your points for this) is to put cross training on your Elite Stormtrooper. When they soaked some damage and are at 1 or 2 hp and get a relatively big attack, you roll a white die instead in the hope of getting a dodge. Basically, the possibility of dodging is very good when death is very probable by rolling a black die. Getting a 1/6 chance of surviving is better than getting a 1/30 (or whatever chance it is that the opponent rolls terribly and you roll 3 blocks is).

For campaign, I think the black die is in general better for heroes.

Black die is terrible against lightsaber attacks, because pierce 3 negates 5/6 of your die.

One of the strategy in skirmish (I don't know how good it actually is, because you are spending some of your points for this) is to put cross training on your Elite Stormtrooper. When they soaked some damage and are at 1 or 2 hp and get a relatively big attack, you roll a white die instead in the hope of getting a dodge. Basically, the possibility of dodging is very good when death is very probable by rolling a black die. Getting a 1/6 chance of surviving is better than getting a 1/30 (or whatever chance it is that the opponent rolls terribly and you roll 3 blocks is).

For campaign, I think the black die is in general better for heroes.

Black die is terrible against lightsaber attacks, because pierce 3 negates 5/6 of your die.

ZILLO !