Hello all

I am really looking for that one squad point, therefore thinking of exchaning one Homing missiles with a concussion missile)

First of all, excluding the fact that Homing missiles can deny evade tokens and that there is a chance that you can keep your target lock for the attack in the next round.

The question:

When you have Fokus token and Guidance chips, how are the odds for using either "Homing missile" or "Concussion missile" to get five hits (I have an additional attack die, therefore 5 attack dice instead of 4)

I guess Homing missile is slightly better, but is it worth it at these circumstances?

With Concussion missile I am allowed to roll maximal 2 blank results in order to still have 5 hit results

With Homing missile I am allowed to roll maximal 1 blank result in order to still have 5 hit results, but can reroll as many dice as I want (which should slightly be better because there are more hit/focus sides than blanksides on an attack die)

But how are the odds, is it worth the one point more

What is the percentage?

% for 5 hits for Concussion Missile

% for 5 hits for Homing Missile

Where are the statistican/mathematicians out there?

Am I right with the following one:

Chance to roll a hit/crit = 50%

Chance to roll a hit/crit with focus = 75% ?

Can I say that I have 5 times a 75% chances to succed (let´s say 0,75), and therefore 5 x 0,75 = 3,75, so therefore most of the time 4 hits/crits with focus. And then plus 1 (100%) for the guidance chip making it 4,75 (so almost 5, which would be 100% accuracy)

So with Concussion modifier and guidance chip I have to reach a level above a value of 3 to have five hits (in theory)? Am I right or completely wrong?

Thank you in advance for all answers

Homing Missles are waay better for the point.

Assuming you can acquire target lock focus on same turn and roll 5 dice your % chance of rolling 5 hits is about 89% for concussion.

Again assuming the same your chances to roll 5 hits with homing are 96%.

But it's not only tha! because Homing blocks evade tokens your expected damage against arguably priority #1 Palp Defenders is much higher. It goes from 1.lowish to 2.lowish.

Meaning, you'll push through more damage per Homing Missle and of course have the chance to cheese out and not have to spend a lock setting up a following volley much easier in the next turn.

Homing Missles and Plasmas are very close to being best in slot.

I'll admit I'm not looking at your example too specifically but when you start trying to figure out your probabilities you need to look at you probability of missing as well as your probability to hit.

If a die has a 75% chance to hit then it has a 25% chance to miss. If you are rolling five dice the chance that ALL dice will miss is .25 x .25 x .25 x .25 x .25 = .25^5 which is 1/1024. Your odds of getting five hits are 23.7% The rough guess solution says you'll average 3.75 hits with five dice but remember you can't actually get a .75 hit which mucks things up.

Discard the math. Dice will betray you, no matter what the math says. If you need the point somewhere else (which I'm betting you do based on the opening line of your post) then use Concussion Missile

This probability calculator https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/192093-x-wing-probability-calculator/page-1 is really good (but for some reason happens to be down right now. If it were up it would tell you the odds of 5 hits for each missile, among other things like expected damage and whatnot

Conc is 56 % for 5 hits and about 96 for at least 4 hits

Homing is 60 % for 5 hits and about 98 for at least 4 hits

Edit: this is assuming you have a focus token and results are after GC is factored in

Considering that both homing missile and concussion missile only roll 4 dice, I'm going to go ahead and say the odds of landing 5 hits with either weapon currently sits at 0%

Considering that both homing missile and concussion missile only roll 4 dice, I'm going to go ahead and say the odds of landing 5 hits with either weapon currently sits at 0%

And how are the odds that you go back an read the post again?

Considering that both homing missile and concussion missile only roll 4 dice, I'm going to go ahead and say the odds of landing 5 hits with either weapon currently sits at 0%

I'm going to go ahead and say that Iggy-E got a build that gives him a bonus attack die (based on his statement in the original post). See, for example, miranda w/a missile. Not sure what his method is, but it is feasible, included in his post, and renders this kind of snark pointless.

Okay... So let's walk through this step for step. Things that happen. 1) You roll 5 dice. 2a) You may reroll blanks if homing, or 2b) you may convert a blank to hit with concussion. 3) you convert all eyes to hits, 4) you convert blank to hit, 5) you end with 5 hits.

So since Guidance Chips is an automatic convert, we're really looking at the probability of rolling 4+ hits prior to GC. The homing missiles is really simple to figure out - each die has a 15/16 chance of rolling a hit/crit (4/8 + 2/8 for focus token. Meaning you have a 2/8 chance of a blank, and then spending the TL to reroll you have another 2/8 chance of a blank for a 1/16 total chance of a blank after TL+F). You roll 5. And through the magic of Pascal's Triangle, we know there are 5 ways to get 4 hits - the first die can miss, the second die can miss, the 3rd die can miss, the 4th die can miss, or the 5th die can miss. Therefore, the probability of getting 4 hits = 5 * 15/16 ^ 4 * 1/16 ^1 (5 ways of rolling 4 hits and 1 blank) = 24.14%, PLUS the chance of naturally rolling 5 hits, (15/16 ^ 5 = 72.42%), for a total of 96.66% chance of rolling 5 hits with a TL+F+GC on a Homing Missile attack.

As for Concussion Missiles - You can convert a blank to a hit, and GC converts another blank, and the focus token turns all eyes to hits. So you're looking for at least 3 hits prior to those mods. You spend the TL, so you only have a 4/8 + 2/8 chance of getting a hit naturally. And looking up Pascal's triangle, there are 10 combos for how to get 2 misses out of 5 binary results. Therefore, the probability of 3 hits = 10 * 6/8 ^ 3 + 2/8 ^2 = 26.36%. The probability of 4 hits = 5 * 6/8 ^ 4 + 2/8 ^ 1 = 39.55%, and probability of 5 hits = 6/8 ^ 5 = 23.73%. Therefore, the probability of 3+ hits = 89.64% , which after imposing Concussion's modifier and GC modifier results in 5 hits.

Hope this helps.

Okay... So let's walk through this step for step. Things that happen. 1) You roll 5 dice. 2a) You may reroll blanks if homing, or 2b) you may convert a blank to hit with concussion. 3) you convert all eyes to hits, 4) you convert blank to hit, 5) you end with 5 hits.

So since Guidance Chips is an automatic convert, we're really looking at the probability of rolling 4+ hits prior to GC. The homing missiles is really simple to figure out - each die has a 15/16 chance of rolling a hit/crit (4/8 + 2/8 for focus token. Meaning you have a 2/8 chance of a blank, and then spending the TL to reroll you have another 2/8 chance of a blank for a 1/16 total chance of a blank after TL+F). You roll 5. And through the magic of Pascal's Triangle, we know there are 5 ways to get 4 hits - the first die can miss, the second die can miss, the 3rd die can miss, the 4th die can miss, or the 5th die can miss. Therefore, the probability of getting 4 hits = 5 * 15/16 ^ 4 * 1/16 ^1 (5 ways of rolling 4 hits and 1 blank) = 24.14%, PLUS the chance of naturally rolling 5 hits, (15/16 ^ 5 = 72.42%), for a total of 96.66% chance of rolling 5 hits with a TL+F+GC on a Homing Missile attack.

As for Concussion Missiles - You can convert a blank to a hit, and GC converts another blank, and the focus token turns all eyes to hits. So you're looking for at least 3 hits prior to those mods. You spend the TL, so you only have a 4/8 + 2/8 chance of getting a hit naturally. And looking up Pascal's triangle, there are 10 combos for how to get 2 misses out of 5 binary results. Therefore, the probability of 3 hits = 10 * 6/8 ^ 3 + 2/8 ^2 = 26.36%. The probability of 4 hits = 5 * 6/8 ^ 4 + 2/8 ^ 1 = 39.55%, and probability of 5 hits = 6/8 ^ 5 = 23.73%. Therefore, the probability of 3+ hits = 89.64% , which after imposing Concussion's modifier and GC modifier results in 5 hits.

Hope this helps.

Awesome! Thanks!

Homing is better. Doesn't use up target lock when fired, so you can use that to modify dice as well as focus. Plus Target can't use evade tokens.

Homing is better. Doesn't use up target lock when fired, so you can use that to modify dice as well as focus. Plus Target can't use evade tokens.

Yes right, but the thing with the evade token is that the ship with the Homing missiles would not be the first attacker from my squad. So when it comes to firing the Homing Missiles, the defender has most certainly already spent his evade token before.

Homing is better. Doesn't use up target lock when fired, so you can use that to modify dice as well as focus. Plus Target can't use evade tokens.

Yes right, but the thing with the evade token is that the ship with the Homing missiles would not be the first attacker from my squad. So when it comes to firing the Homing Missiles, the defender has most certainly already spent his evade token before.

Well, if you want to ask the question of how likely are you to hit a fully modded up Soontir Fel at R3, then the lack of Evade makes a HUGE difference between the concussion vs. homing.

As we just stated, the HM has a 96.66% of rolling 5 hits. Soontir Fel cannot evade all of that unless he's behind a rock (we'll ignore that scenario for a second). So even discounting the option of rolling 4 hits and him only getting 3 evades (small chance, ~2%), you're more than 96.66% likely to hit him with HM.

However, for CM, even if you roll 5 hits, Fel can get 4 evades + token for complete damage mitigation. The chance of that happening would be the chance of him rolling at least 2 evade/focus naturally out of 4 dice. 6 * 5/8 ^2 * 3/8 ^2 = 32.96% chance of 2 evades, 4 * 5/8 ^ 3 * 3/8 ^ 1 = 36.62 chance of 3 evades, and 5/8 ^ 4 = 15.26% of 4 evades. Therefore, with Palp + AT + F + E, he has an 84.84% of getting 5 evades. Let's make the assumption that getting 4 hits or less = auto miss (not far off - only a 1.97% chance of it potentially going through), and that means that you only have a 13.59% chance to hit Fel with CM.

So, for 1 point - are you 100% confident that he'll never have that evade token?

I swear by this calculator: http://xwingcalculator.x10host.com/diceuilm.html

Homing is better. Doesn't use up target lock when fired, so you can use that to modify dice as well as focus. Plus Target can't use evade tokens.

Yes right, but the thing with the evade token is that the ship with the Homing missiles would not be the first attacker from my squad. So when it comes to firing the Homing Missiles, the defender has most certainly already spent his evade token before.

Well, if you want to ask the question of how likely are you to hit a fully modded up Soontir Fel at R3, then the lack of Evade makes a HUGE difference between the concussion vs. homing.

As we just stated, the HM has a 96.66% of rolling 5 hits. Soontir Fel cannot evade all of that unless he's behind a rock (we'll ignore that scenario for a second). So even discounting the option of rolling 4 hits and him only getting 3 evades (small chance, ~2%), you're more than 96.66% likely to hit him with HM.

However, for CM, even if you roll 5 hits, Fel can get 4 evades + token for complete damage mitigation. The chance of that happening would be the chance of him rolling at least 2 evade/focus naturally out of 4 dice. 6 * 5/8 ^2 * 3/8 ^2 = 32.96% chance of 2 evades, 4 * 5/8 ^ 3 * 3/8 ^ 1 = 36.62 chance of 3 evades, and 5/8 ^ 4 = 15.26% of 4 evades. Therefore, with Palp + AT + F + E, he has an 84.84% of getting 5 evades. Let's make the assumption that getting 4 hits or less = auto miss (not far off - only a 1.97% chance of it potentially going through), and that means that you only have a 13.59% chance to hit Fel with CM.

So, for 1 point - are you 100% confident that he'll never have that evade token?

Great post, thank you!

And you are completely right, but it is hard, because the one point saved would be for initiative bid. Without initiative, no target lock on Soontir. Of course it is better to habe Homing Missiles, but maybe for my scenario one can stick to concussion too