So as of wave 9 + HotR, comparing the factions, and only looking at products with a small/large-base (IE., not including 'Epic'-scale content) we have:

Product SKUs (flag if faction is included - so, for example, the Core Sets count for both Rebel and Empire)

Rebels: 18

Imperials: 19

Scum: 10

Distinct Pilots (counting Han Solo twice, Maarek Stele twice, etc)

Rebels: 78

Imperials: 83

Scum: 54

Distinct Ships (for this one, re-releases - including 'Heroes...' - do not increment)

Rebels: 14

Imperials: 13

Scum: 13

Total Ship Releases (here, re-releases do count)

Rebels: 21

Imperials: 20

Scum: 14

With wave 10....

Product SKUs (flag if faction is included - so, for example, the Core Sets count for both Rebel and Empire)

Rebels: 20

Imperials: 21

Scum: 11

Distinct Pilots (counting Han Solo twice, Maarek Stele twice, etc)

Rebels: 86

Imperials: 93

Scum: 58

Distinct Ships (for this one, re-releases - including 'Heroes...' - do not increment)

Rebels: 16

Imperials: 15

Scum: 14

Total Ship Releases (here, re-releases do count)

Rebels: 23

Imperials: 22

Scum: 15

========================

The 'SKU' counts are only even off between the Empire and Rebels because of the huge ships - the Raider gets counted (it has a 'small'-base ship in it) while the Tantive IV does not (no 'small'-base). Interestingly, the Empire was tied with Scum as of wave 9+HotR as far as distinct ships (that Ghost + Phantom combo pushed the Rebels ahead) - only wave 10 seeing Scum really falling behind (now very considerably behind the Rebels).

...take-away: SWX58 definitely, totally, for 100% sure...includes at least one Scum ship.

Source chart, if anyone is interested:

SKU,Product,Rebel Flag,Rebel Ships,New Rebel Ships,New Rebel Pilots,Imperial Flag,Imperial Ships,New Imperial Ships,New Imperial Pilots,Scum Flag,Scum Ships,New Scum Ships,New Scum Pilots
SWX01,Core Set,1,1,1,4,1,1,1,6,,,,
SWX02,X-Wing,1,1,,2,,,,,,,,
SWX03,TIE Fighter,,,,,1,1,,3,,,,
SWX04,Y-Wing,1,1,1,4,,,,,,,,
SWX05,TIE Advanced,,,,,1,1,1,4,,,,
SWX06,Millennium Falcom,1,1,1,4,,,,,,,,
SWX07,Slave 1,,,,,1,1,1,4,,,,
SWX08,A-Wing,1,1,1,4,,,,,,,,
SWX09,TIE Interceptor,,,,,1,1,1,6,,,,
SWX10,Dice,,,,,,,,,,,,
SWX11,Rebel Transport,1,1,,4,,,,,,,,
SWX12,HWK-290,1,1,1,4,,,,,,,,
SWX13,Lambda,,,,,1,1,1,4,,,,
SWX14,B-Wing,1,1,1,4,,,,,,,,
SWX15,TIE Bomber,,,,,1,1,1,4,,,,
SWX16,Z-95,1,1,1,4,,,,,,,,
SWX17,TIE Defender,,,,,1,1,1,4,,,,
SWX18,E-Wing,1,1,1,4,,,,,,,,
SWX19,TIE Phantom,,,,,1,1,1,4,,,,
SWX20,,,,,,,,,,,,,
SWX21,Imperial Aces,,,,,1,1,,5,,,,
SWX22,Tantive IV,,,,,,,,,,,,
SWX23,YT-2400,1,1,1,4,,,,,,,,
SWX24,VT-49 Decimator,,,,,1,1,1,4,,,,
SWX25,StarViper,,,,,,,,,1,1,1,4
SWX26,M3-A Interceptor,,,,,,,,,1,1,1,4
SWX27,IG-2000,,,,,,,,,1,1,1,4
SWX28,Most Wanted,,,,,,,,,1,4,4,16
SWX29,Rebel Aces,1,2,,4,,,,,,,,
SWX30,Imperial Raider,,,,,1,1,,4,,,,
SWX31,Hound's Tooth,,,,,,,,,1,2,1,4
SWX32,Kihraxz,,,,,,,,,1,1,1,4
SWX33,K-Wing,1,1,1,4,,,,,,,,
SWX34,TIE Punisher,,,,,1,1,1,4,,,,
SWX35,Imperial Assault Carrier,,,,,1,1,,4,,,,
SWX36,Core Set v2,1,1,1,4,1,1,1,6,,,,
SWX37,T-70 X-Wing,1,1,,2,,,,,,,,
SWX38,TIE/fo,,,,,1,1,,3,,,,
SWX39,Ghost,1,2,2,8,,,,,,,,
SWX40,Inquisitor's TIE,,,,,1,1,1,4,,,,
SWX41,Mist Hunter,,,,,,,,,1,1,1,4
SWX42,Punishing One,,,,,,,,,1,1,1,4
SWX43,Pegs,,,,,,,,,,,,
SWX44,Pegs,,,,,,,,,,,,
SWX45,Pegs,,,,,,,,,,,,
SWX46,Pegs,,,,,,,,,,,,
SWX47,Pegs,,,,,,,,,,,,
SWX48,Pegs,,,,,,,,,,,,
SWX49,Dials,,,,,,,,,,,,
SWX50,Dials,,,,,,,,,,,,
SWX51,Dials,,,,,,,,,,,,
SWX52,Imperial Vets,,,,,1,2,,6,,,,
SWX53,ARC-170,1,1,1,4,,,,,,,,
SWX54,TIE/sf,,,,,1,1,1,4,,,,
SWX55,Protectorate Fighter,,,,,,,,,1,1,1,6
SWX56,Shadow Caster,,,,,,,,,1,1,1,4
SWX57,Heroes …,1,2,,10,,,,,,,,
SWX58,,,,,,,,,,,,,
SWX59,Sabine's TIE,1,1,1,4,,,,,,,,
SWX60,Upsilon,,,,,1,1,1,4,,,,
SWX61,Quadjumper,,,,,,,,,1,1,1,4
SWX62,U-Wing,1,1,1,4,,,,,,,,
SWX63,TIE Striker,,,,,1,1,1,6,,,,
,,,,,,,,,,,,,
,Totals - wave 9 + HotR,18,21,14,78,19,20,13,83,10,14,13,54
,Wave 10,2,2,2,8,2,2,2,10,1,1,1,4
,Final,20,23,16,86,21,22,15,93,11,15,14,58

...take-away: SWX58 definitely, totally, for 100% sure...includes at least one Scum ship.

Herm... I see a bunch of data (in your second post), that you've used to gather information (thanks for that by the way)... But I don't see how you make the leap from the information to this knowledge/conclusion. Perhaps there's more to it than that, but at least analyze the information in more than 1 sentence. For example:

After W6 was released as scum, it looked like they were going to be playing catch up for the next few waves. After all, W7 gave them an extra ship over the others, and when W8 was initially announced, they had an extra ship. But once TFA Force Day arrived, we were gifted both the T70 and the TIE/fo that we previously didn't know about. This evened W8 out, and actually introduced an additional ship for the Rebels (thanks to the Ghost/Phantom being 2 ships).

But perhaps W8 was a fluke and really was TFA + W8, not really W8. Which would explain why W9 is 2 scum, 1 rebel, 1 imp, as FFG continues to expand Scum to catch up with Rebels/Imps.

But Wave 10 seems to be a repeat of W8, with Rebels/Imps seeing an increase from the Rogue 1 movie. But the one difference is that the base W10 is only 1 of each ship, so now Scum is actually falling behind.

For this reason, I believe the missing SKU, #58, is going to be a Scum exclusive release, which is required to keep the smaller faction from falling farther behind.

Thoughts?

For this reason, I believe the missing SKU, #58, is going to be a Scum exclusive release, which is required to keep the smaller faction from falling farther behind.

Thoughts?

Sure, that breaks down the logic flow even more. I think one would point out, as supporting points, interviews FFG has made indicating that the Scum releases would be 'in sync' with the other factions going forward (and this seems true as of wave 9, but not as of wave 10).

And then, of course, simple retail logic. If retailers got wind of the idea that FFG was treating Scum as an 'also ran' faction instead of one of the major ones, shops would logically by fewer of those products (or if trimming down what X-Wing they stocked, maybe eliminating them entirely from their inventory).

So for business reasons, as well as their stated intent, it makes sense for the factions to stay in sync...and they are really out of sync, now, in every release metric.

I actually think SWX58 will be an imperial ship. I just feel like that's the way this game is going, especially since Rebels are getting so many fixes, and Scum is getting so many new illicit cards. There's a lot of first order stuff on the way, but not a lot of imperial stuff. I think it'll be a weird choice, though... Scum could probably use a good huge ship with some nice new fix cards.

I actually think SWX58 will be an imperial ship. I just feel like that's the way this game is going, especially since Rebels are getting so many fixes, and Scum is getting so many new illicit cards. There's a lot of first order stuff on the way, but not a lot of imperial stuff. I think it'll be a weird choice, though... Scum could probably use a good huge ship with some nice new fix cards.

As much as I'd like SWX58 to be a Scum 'huge', re-releasing one or two of the existing ships with repaints...it doesn't feel likely that it will be. Several reasons, unfortunately:

- Why hasn't it been announced, yet? The "obvious" Scum Epic ship candidates (Jabba's "Star Jewel" from the EU, the "Broken Horn" or "Merchant One" Gozanti-variants from Rebels, etc) have all been seen, with plenty of screen time for their pilots and crew. No spoilers around them, so.....?

- While the Scum faction is, indeed, behind in every release metric...the interviews where it seemed FFG was discussing their being in parity appeared to be using the count of 'distinct ships' (of the above groups) - which they are pretty close on. Repaints that might be included in an 'Epic'-scale ship don't count towards the 'distinct ship' count, so while it could generally help their other release #s (and why it seems inevitable they'll get an 'Epic' ship at some point)...it doesn't help the number that seems to get the most attention

IMHO, the most likely answer is that it's the Partisan X-Wing from 'Rogue One' that has been mistakenly leaked once or twice....

Why on that one? Well, it addresses both above issues with the Scum 'Epic'+Repaint idea:

- It is a new ship for Scum, flat out. Problem solved, there.

- Given that Saw Gerrara hasn't been getting much time in the 'Rogue One' trailers (unusual for an Academy Award-winning actor that certainly SEEMS like he'll be a big deal in the film to remain out of the initial spotlight), and the X-Wing his Partisans are flying only caught in glimpses...leaked set shots and premature product announcements and the like...feels a bit like Disney is trying to keep some kind of plot element under wraps around it. That his Partisans might be more 'extremist' than initially thought, and part of the story being the challenge to get them into the Rebel fold...I mean, who knows, right? But such plot elements would definitely allow this to be a 'Scum' ship, and would equally definitely mean (since Disney seems to want to keep it a surprise) that FFG couldn't otherwise say anything about SWX58.

(Of course, there is the counter-argument looking at the SKU on it. Right in the middle of a group of Episode VII and 'Rebels' ships, with the "known" 'Rogue One' releases...SWX62 and SWX63...tacked on the far end. Maybe it's a Scum 'Epic', after all, but FFG just felt like holding off on that release until after the 'Rogue One' hype died down?)

I absolutely dont think thenpartisan xwing will come as a scum ship. Wven if theyre a bit more extreme, the partisans are part of the rebellion and the leaks we've seen have had the rebel insignia.

It doesn't matter if the three factions have a different number of sku, ships, or pilots.

While I find it interesting as a data set:

A: the actual number of models is pretty balanced

B: the Scum are doing pretty good for a faction with a 2-year late start

C: I think Scum has some of the most creative ships

D: most Scum pilots are pretty obscure, hence the lower Unique pilot count.

Cool to see, in any event.

B is only true because of how good the jumpmaster is. We were way less represented last season

B is only true because of how good the jumpmaster is. We were way less represented last season

I don't think any 'parity' between the factions, referred to in this context, speaks necessarily to balance.

Rather, it's literally more just about counts of what is released.