Howdy all.
I wanted to start a discussion about how people are viewing Poe Dameron currently, predictions for how he'll do after wave 9 hits, and how much he'll see play after Heroes of the Resistance.
A quick look at List Juggler shows Poe's extreme drop in popularity since his release, coinciding with the increasing popularity of Jumpmasters. It's easy to see the causation here; small-based 2 agility ships, in general, have seen a large drop off during this time, with Poe coming in behind Biggs and Wes as the only representation worth mentioning of this ship archtype.
Despite this trend, Wes and Biggs, with Corran, has had a good bit of success during this past Regional season, largely due to Darth Vader Dan of Back to Dials fame. Outside of this squad, however, there very little representation of X-Wings, of either flavor, making top cuts.
Of course, this detailed look at List Juggler is hardly required to make the statement that Poe is current completely absent from tournament success.
Why is this?
A large part of this has to be attributed to Poe's lack of survivability against ordnance in the form of JM5K's, and his inability to push damage through Imperial aces back by Palp. Regen isn't useful when a trio of Contracted Scouts can remove him from the table in a single round without an excess of difficulty. Even at pilot skill 10, Poe's fairly predictable dial makes him vulnerable to the maneuverability to Dengar (not to mention Dengaroo's potent offense and defense). When it comes to Imperials, a three dice attack, with only a focus for modification, simply no longer cuts it for dealing damage. Comparing this to Corran's double tap, which has the benefit of being able to exhaust tokens for the second attack, or a VCX-100's four dice primary, it's clear that Poe's offense lags behind similarly priced options.
So what does the future hold for our favorite Resistance pilot?
In looking at what wave 9 brings to the game, it seems unlikely Poe's place within Rebels' list-building options will change. If Shadowcaster pilots such as Asajj Ventress gain in popularity, it could help to drive down Palp+Aces lists through stress control, and JM5K lists by drawing Scum lists away from Contracted Scouts or Dengar. While the long-term meta penetration of the Shadowcaster is still an unknown, it doesn't seem that the more fundamental problem of Poe struggling to compete against Corran Horn or VCX-100's will change in a post-wave 9 meta. Worlds, in the beginning of November, will give us our first indications of what the post-wave 9 world will look like.
Heroes of the Resistance
If HotR releases in time for the bulk of the upcoming Regional season, there could very well be an upsurge in Poe's popularity. At the very least, excitement over the new release should cause an uptick in Poe's tournament list appearances. The Black One title providing a solid counter to Omega Leader, combined with Poe's EPT slot being freed up for other, more offensively-oriented builds, will certainly cause players to, at the very least, reevaluate his place within the competitive tournament meta. At this point, without knowledge of wave 9's affect on common lists, or even a more detailed preview of the T-70 side of the HotR expansion, any predictions regarding post-HotR Poe are certain to be only guesswork.
I hope, if this write-up did nothing else, it caused a few of you to start thinking about the long-term role of Mr. Dameron. I, myself, plan on flying Poe, alongside Wes and Biggs, in a store tournament this weekend, to give him one last hurrah in a pre-wave 9 world. While I'm sure I might be able to achieve more success with Corran or a Ghost, I enjoy putting X-Wings on the table whenever possible.
