What's the best estimate on wave 9 based on empirical data and ongoing cues?

By Mu0n729, in X-Wing

Keep in mind that we might be getting a Rogue One surprise in a few days.

A few days? Where are you getting that information?

From nowhere. I was assuming Force Friday was roughly the same time as last year, and it has been pointed out that it's not.

eBay is the best bet.

If you haven't looked at it yet, here's some data on release schedules in the past waves:

Wave 5

Announced: Jun

Preview: Aug (2 months)

Release: Nov (5 months)

Wave 6

Announced: Aug

Preview: Oct-Jan (5 months)

Release: Feb (6 months)

Wave 7

Announced: Apr

Preview: Jun-Jul (3 months)

Release: Sep (5 months)

Wave 8

Announced: Jul

Preview: Dec-Feb (7 months)

Release: Mar (8 months)

Wave 9

Announced: Jun

Preview: Jul (1 month)

Release: ???

The anomaly points to Wave 8 being delayed for so long, but it looks like on average it takes 5-6 months.

I really want to say that with the quick announcement -> presale at Gencon, we might see this wave come sooner, but I won't hold my breath.

I think the bigger test is the gap between "On the Boat" versus "In Stores."

Mu0n, can you hold out until the 7th? Wednesdays are usually when FFG updates shipping statuses IIRC. If Wave 9 hasn't left the boat by that point, or at least had a few leaked photos from distributors who have it in hand, then it seems unlikely that it would make it to your store by the 19th.

I think the bigger test is the gap between "On the Boat" versus "In Stores."

I think that takes 8 weeks on average, and usually coincides with the gap between "Preview" and "Release". The only anomaly there in the past was Wave 5 which I think was due to a strike IIRC.

I can't remember how long ago Wave 9 went "On the Boat". I want to say late July/Early August.

I think the bigger test is the gap between "On the Boat" versus "In Stores."

I think that takes 8 weeks on average, and usually coincides with the gap between "Preview" and "Release". The only anomaly there in the past was Wave 5 which I think was due to a strike IIRC.

I can't remember how long ago Wave 9 went "On the Boat". I want to say late July/Early August.

Not being rude, but if you can't give them the last business, does it really matter whether wave 9 is going to be a worthwhile buy?

I don't understand that sentence. I think wave 9 is worthwhile and I intend to give them some form of business no matter what happens with that damned boat?

The store owner will be more touched by a thank you card than liquidating his remaining stock...

Here are the "On The Boat" announcements vs. release:

Wave 5

On the Boat: Sep 19

Released: Nov 26 (10 weeks)

Wave 6

On the Boat: Dec 16

Released: Feb 26 (10 weeks)

Wave 7

On the Boat: Jul 25

Released: Sep 2 (6 weeks)

Wave 8

On the Boat: Dec 17

Released: Mar 17 (13 weeks)

Wave 9

On the Boat: Jul 22

Released: TBD

EDIT: More accurate dates.

Edited by VaynMaanen

Additional Releases:

Raider

On the Boat: Jul 1

Released: Aug 13 (6 weeks)

Gozanti

On the Boat: Oct 15

Released: Dec 23 (10 weeks)

Imperial Veterans

On the Boat: Mar 31

Released: Jun 30 (13 weeks)

Basically this means... 6-13 week lead time lol

Estimated Wave 9 release:

Sep 1-Oct 20

Mu0n, can you hold out until the 7th? Wednesdays are usually when FFG updates shipping statuses IIRC. If Wave 9 hasn't left the boat by that point, or at least had a few leaked photos from distributors who have it in hand, then it seems unlikely that it would make it to your store by the 19th.

Easily. Worst case scenario, I splurge and get almost every color I need to fully paint my Space Hulk 4th edition game.

Those are useful dates actually. Thanks, I was telling my son that the Imperial assault stuff will hopefully be out by his birthday in Nov., if they release the xwing stuff in october, the IA stuff should come out shortly after.

The French distributor has announced Sept 12 : http://www.edgeent.com/prochainement

Wave 9 was available for purchase exclusively at the French Nationnal last week-end

The French distributor has announced Sept 12 : http://www.edgeent.com/prochainement

Wave 9 was available for purchase exclusively at the French Nationnal last week-end

Yeah, I heard that, but I live in North America (for those who might have mistakenly thought I live in France - I don't).

Friday. It will be out.

The French distributor has announced Sept 12 : http://www.edgeent.com/prochainement

Wave 9 was available for purchase exclusively at the French Nationnal last week-end

Yeah, I heard that, but I live in North America (for those who might have mistakenly thought I live in France - I don't).

Ffg is street dating for simultaneous releases now since the asmodee merger, so unless weirdness is happeninf it should release the same day in north america as in europe

That's not what happened with Imp Vets - I had a local player who managed to pull off ordering from a French store, have it shipped across the ocean and had it in his hands a good 2 weeks before us poor suckers.

Are they planning to get more stock right before they close? I think you should take your chances now with what's available.

Street dates are Thursdays, so the 15th would be the last possible chance for you. Generally, FFG updates from On the Boat to Shipping Now about one to two weeks before the street date. So if we don't have a Shipping Now notification by next weds then I'd say go ahead and spend your store credit.