What's the best estimate on wave 9 based on empirical data and ongoing cues?

By Mu0n729, in X-Wing

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My best local store for X-Wing is going to close up shop (Boutique le Donjon) in mid-September. We've had 18 tournaments on record (on List Juggler, putting us at 3rd position worldwide after Title sir (that one seems like where all badly named tourneys go? not sure) and Curio Cavern). It supported the majority of our local league season 1 which wrapped up this summer. Without its welcoming tables and really helpful staff, we wouldn't have grown the community we have in Quebec City now. It also hosted the 2016 Regionals for our province back in early July (couldn't attend but all attending said it was really well hosted). It also won the very next regionals in Feb 2017.

I think we can weather the storm, since we have 3 more gaming places where we routinely hold seasonal kit. Some soon-to-be-former employees are preparing a new place it seems.

They say they'll honor gift rebates until they close on September 19th which leads me to a serious thread about statistical evidence about the release of wave 9, weighting the last few wave releases a bit more and weighting same-month release a bit more. Has anyone bothered to do this analysis?

I wants to know if I splurge my $50 store credit on something now before it's gone or courageously wait it out for wave 9.

Edited by Mu0n
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Whoa... Le Donjon Is gonna close on sept 18 ?

Edited by PoorGreedo
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Keep in mind that we might be getting a Rogue One surprise in a few days.

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Whoa... Le Donjon Is gonna close on sept 18 ?

(C'est toi André?)

Here's the closing announcement in French:

"Amis du Donjon.

Après 27 années à desservir la clientèle de gamers du Québec, le Donjon cessera ses opérations à la fin septembre. Le bail avec la Ville de Québec pour le local sous la bibliothèque Gabrielle Roy vient à échéance et la Ville prend tous les locaux du sous-sol pour l'agrandissement de la bibliothèque. Je n'ai ni la passion nécessaire, ni l'intérêt pour un déménagement pour m’engager un autre 5 à 7 ans.
Merci à tous nos clients, mes amis et ma famille pour vos appuis au cours de ces 27 années. Il y aura toujours une place particulière dans mon cœur pour tous les p'**** culs un peu nerd mal dans leur peau qui trouvait un refuge au Donjon et qui sont devenus des pères de famille.
Le plus gros des mercis à tous les kobolds qui ont travaillé avec moi et qui ont fait du Donjon le magasin pour les gamers par des gamers.
27 ans plus tard, je suis mûr pour de nouveaux défis qui tiendront compte de mes nouveaux intérêts et nouvelles passions.
Et maintenant, des informations plus terre à terre
À compter de maintenant :
• Tout est en spécial à 20% de rabais et plus, sauf exception.
• On ne remet plus d'étampe sur les cartes fidélités, mais on honore les cartes pleines.
• Évidemment, les bons d'achats et les crédits pour les singles seront honorés.
• Le calendrier des activités sera ajusté et les changements seront communiqués sur la page Facebook du Donjon.
• On espère être encore ouvert quand la prochaine wave de X-Wing deviendra disponible. Si elle arrive avant le 19 septembre, vous pourrez vous la procurer au Donjon et l'obtenir à un excellent prix.
• On espère aussi que le tournoi Regional de X-Wing va quand même pouvoir se tenir à Québec. On a une solution à proposer à FFG.
• On continue de faire des échanges contre des cartes sur la buy list, du Modern seulement. On échange au prix de l'étiquette, pas le prix du rabais.
Guy Moore"
Here's the translated version. I could translate it by hand, taking great care at taking similar yet different expressions, but that'd take a chunk of time and I feel lazy. Plus, it brings a bit of fun at this sad bit of news:
"Friends of the Keep.
After 27 years serving customers gamers Quebec Dungeon cease operations in late September. The lease with the City of Quebec for the local under the Gabrielle Roy library matures and the City takes all the basement of the premises for the expansion of the library. I have neither the necessary passion or interest in a move to hire me another 5 to 7 years.
Thank you to all our customers, friends and family for your support during these 27 years. There will always be a special place in my heart for all the lil ass a little bad about themselves nerd who found refuge in the Dungeon and who became fathers.
The biggest thanks to all the goblins who have worked with me and that made the Dungeon store for gamers by gamers.
27 years later, I am ready for new challenges that will accommodate my new interests and new passions.
And now the more mundane information
Effective immediately:
• Everything is special 20% discount and more, without exception.
• One delivers more than stamp on loyalty cards, but we honor the full card.
• Of course, the vouchers and credits for the singles will be honored.
• The schedule of activities will be adjusted and changes will be communicated on the Donjon Facebook page.
• We hope to still be open when the next wave of X-Wing becomes available. If it happens before September 19, you can get to the dungeon and get it at a great price.
• It is also hoped that the Regional Tournament X-Wing will still be held in Quebec. We have a solution to propose to FFG.
• exchanges We continue to make against the cards on the buy list, only the Modern. We exchange the price of the label, not the price discount.
Guy Moore"
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non, pas André, juste un vraiment vieux client!

Skizo ouvre sa propre boutique c'est ca ?

Edited by PoorGreedo
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Keep in mind that we might be getting a Rogue One surprise in a few days.

Force Friday is set for 30/9 isn't it?

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Keep in mind that we might be getting a Rogue One surprise in a few days.

Force Friday is set for 30/9 isn't it?

It is.

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Keep in mind that we might be getting a Rogue One surprise in a few days.

Force Friday is set for 30/9 isn't it?

It is.

Which in turn means that waiting for that would be too late.

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I have other things I can buy, but the top priority is wave 9. I had reserved these:

2x Prot. Starfight.
2x ARC-170
1x Shadow Caster
2x Special Forces TIE
sucks that I might not be able to give them this last business!
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Keep in mind that we might be getting a Rogue One surprise in a few days.

Force Friday is set for 30/9 isn't it?

****! Almost a month later than last year, that sucks.

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I have other things I can buy, but the top priority is wave 9. I had reserved these:

2x Prot. Starfight.
2x ARC-170
1x Shadow Caster
2x Special Forces TIE
sucks that I might not be able to give them this last business!

Long time no see, Mu0n :)

Not being rude, but if you can't give them the last business, does it really matter whether wave 9 is going to be a worthwhile buy?

With that said, my personal bet would be:

Shadowcaster will be decent (They've not released a total dud Large ship yet, and those upgrade cards are going to be hilarious)

Protectorate Starfighter: You know what an Interceptor with a Hull Upgrade looks like, right? If you think a 1pt discount on an Alpha is going to work out, then buy a couple. If you don't, then just the one for Fenn Rau will suffice. (Signs point to the other two pilots being DOA, though I'm sure there'll be funky lists here and there with Old Teroch.)

ARCs: Some success reported to date (talk to Ficklegreendice); one or two is reasonable.

TIE/SF: ... less promising. The odd Ace might be fun, if there's either still enough PS9 aces around for QuickDraw to murder, anyway, or few enough left that Backdraft gets to shine properly. ;) On the other hand, a 0pt, non-unique Systems card. If you're into buying cardboard, you can certainly do a lot worse.

Hope that answer was suitably non-helpful. :P

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I heard from a FLGS owner that he expects them mid-Sept.

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Why not just go there on the 19th and if wave 9 isn't there by then, buy something else?

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Why not just go there on the 19th and if wave 9 isn't there by then, buy something else?

Cause there is a subsrantial risk that everything interesting is long gone by this date, and only a very few spoils are left.

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Why not just go there on the 19th and if wave 9 isn't there by then, buy something else?

Bad plan is bad.

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It is a sad, sad day when a gaming store that was this involved in a community is forced to close shop. I was there for the regional and was thoroughly impressed by how they handled it. Sad indeed :(

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Not being rude, but if you can't give them the last business, does it really matter whether wave 9 is going to be a worthwhile buy?

I don't understand that sentence. I think wave 9 is worthwhile and I intend to give them some form of business no matter what happens with that damned boat?

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Keep in mind that we might be getting a Rogue One surprise in a few days.

A few days? Where are you getting that information?

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I've never expected it to land September, the boat just doesn't move that fast.

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I have other things I can buy, but the top priority is wave 9. I had reserved these:

2x Prot. Starfight.
2x ARC-170
1x Shadow Caster
2x Special Forces TIE
sucks that I might not be able to give them this last business!

Just a question... if they're closing are you sure they're going to even order Wave 9? I mean even if Wave 9 is out like 3 days before they close are you sure they're going to be buying in stock at that point?

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It's in the quotes above. Their announcement, not mine.

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If you haven't looked at it yet, here's some data on release schedules in the past waves:

Wave 5

Announced: Jun

Preview: Aug (2 months)

Release: Nov (5 months)

Wave 6

Announced: Aug

Preview: Oct-Jan (5 months)

Release: Feb (6 months)

Wave 7

Announced: Apr

Preview: Jun-Jul (3 months)

Release: Sep (5 months)

Wave 8

Announced: Jul

Preview: Dec-Feb (7 months)

Release: Mar (8 months)

Wave 9

Announced: Jun

Preview: Jul (1 month)

Release: ???

The anomaly points to Wave 8 being delayed for so long, but it looks like on average it takes 5-6 months.

I really want to say that with the quick announcement -> presale at Gencon, we might see this wave come sooner, but I won't hold my breath.

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Amazon.com now shows December....

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Amazon.com now shows December....

Amazon.com unfortunately never has accurate ship dates for X-Wing products