I have. So I finally finished a script to calculate it and display it rather nicely. This is a tree where the center is the origin point, it branches out based on rolls (only black lines) or based on choices (some lines red, some black). Choices can be to reroll 2 dice, 1 dice or none at all.

For Keyan with 1 Bomber Command Center: Average damage is 2.84, versus 2.5 without BCC (only a 13% increase, booo). But it's still interesting to see what to reroll. Basically on the Keyan reroll (which is first) you reroll everything that's not a Hit + Crit.

Also interesting is the B-wing with 2 Bomber Command Centers, which gives it a 35% increase in average damage (2.37 vs. 1.35). On the first reroll, you reroll black hits *unless there's an accuracy*. This is of course situational, because if you want to maximize damage and the opponent will use a brace (think 2 HP left on the ship) the best choice is different.

Both were rather intuitive, but what can I say, I like graphs. Hopefully I'll get more math results out of this script.

Probability and a Ferris wheel so we can look at something pretty? Well done, sir.

Amazing, truly amazing! Thank you very much for that Chilligan. I'm about the furthest thing from a polymath so I am awed when people can generate stats like these.

Would it be possible to generate one for Y-wings, with 2 BCCs?

Would it be possible to generate one for Y-wings, with 2 BCCs?

Single dice are much easier to work the probability for and I can tell you right now that with a single black dice attack and X rerolls (where X>1), you want to reroll anything that's not a hit+crit for your rerolls up until your final reroll. Then you get a choice: do you want to have higher odds of doing damage at all (then you should reroll only the blanks) or higher odds of generating a crit (then you should keep rerolling non hit+crits like a madman)? You get the same average damage either way, but the first route is more dependable and the second more win big lose big.

With 2 rerolls you should generate 1.43 average damage on a black dice as I recall, using the method I outlined above.

But there is no pretty picture....

But there is no pretty picture....

On the topic of rerolls and crit-fishing, I'm just going to leave this here.

Ahhh, Ard - that's exactly the information I've been wondering about. How much additional benefit is it to go aggressive vs conservative? Thank you, your chart answers it exactly. Time to fit a third BCC into my list!

Ahhh, Ard - that's exactly the information I've been wondering about. How much additional benefit is it to go aggressive vs conservative? Thank you, your chart answers it exactly. Time to fit a third BCC into my list!

That's one of the reasons I've been using 2 BCCs, I can be aggressive on the first reroll and try to go for the Hit/Crit. That and anti-squadron fire. But 3 is over my limit

Amazing, truly amazing! Thank you very much for that Chilligan. I'm about the furthest thing from a polymath so I am awed when people can generate stats like these.

Would it be possible to generate one for Y-wings, with 2 BCCs?

Would it be possible to generate one for Y-wings, with 2 BCCs?

Single dice are much easier to work the probability for and I can tell you right now that with a single black dice attack and X rerolls (where X>1), you want to reroll anything that's not a hit+crit for your rerolls up until your final reroll. Then you get a choice: do you want to have higher odds of doing damage at all (then you should reroll only the blanks) or higher odds of generating a crit (then you should keep rerolling non hit+crits like a madman)? You get the same average damage either way, but the first route is more dependable and the second more win big lose big.

With 2 rerolls you should generate 1.43 average damage on a black dice as I recall, using the method I outlined above.

But there is no pretty picture....

Here you go, with the mention that the damage is 1.4375, 43% damage increase from a base Y-wing! These are very easy to do, what's difficult right now is to get a big one working (for instance, I would like to know what's the best approach for 2 red 1 blue /w TRC and concentrate fire against a bracing opponent! - those are a LOT of possibilities)

It's pretty straightforward, you reroll all non-HitCrits on the first reroll, on the second it's up to you if you really need or not!

But there is no pretty picture....

For single dice (not as pretty as Chill's, sorry):

On the topic of rerolls and crit-fishing, I'm just going to leave this here.

What do you mean by aggressive and conservative? With black dice for instance, the last reroll is the one with the aggressive/conservative approach in my view, and that one is average damage 1, so it shouldn't affect your overall statistics, just the variance. With N rerolls, I'm always going to go for Hit+Crit on the N-1 rerolls and then decide on the last one if I want to "risk it" one more time. Is that your "aggressive" reroll?

Also interesting is the X-wing anti-ship with 2 Bomber Command Centers. 1.15 vs. 0.75 for a 53% increase. Given that the red dice is more fickle, I didn't expect this, but apparently it's also best to reroll single hits/crits on the first reroll, followed by keeping all good results on the last reroll.

But there is no pretty picture....

For single dice (not as pretty as Chill's, sorry):

On the topic of rerolls and crit-fishing, I'm just going to leave this here.

What do you mean by aggressive and conservative? With black dice for instance, the last reroll is the one with the aggressive/conservative approach in my view, and that one is average damage 1, so it shouldn't affect your overall statistics, just the variance. With N rerolls, I'm always going to go for Hit+Crit on the N-1 rerolls and then decide on the last one if I want to "risk it" one more time. Is that your "aggressive" reroll?

Aggressive: fish for a hit-crit/double as applicable, every roll.

Conservative: stay on singles, every roll.

The graph was made to illustrate the stacking effects of multiple rerolls, rather than to direct actions in specific scenarios. Which is why I didn't, for example, show the results of aggressive-until-the-last-roll. More useful for list-building than for tactical decision-making, apart from defending aggressive rerolling for multiple rerolls.

Ok, so I polished the script a bit, you can now clearly tell which ability was used (in the case of Keyan, it's reroll1, reroll1, reroll2 because I've manage to put 2 BCC on him). I am now able to have him decide which modification to do first based on how the decision tree evolves.

I've also pruned the tree to only show the successful paths at each step, which makes it more manageable to display more convoluted decision trees. For Keyan with 2BCC's for instance, there really isn't anything surprising, you fish for that hit/crit until the very last reroll (even using Keyan's ability to reroll a single dice). The important part is that making the decision of which ability to do first on the go lets me calculate a more precise average damage output, based on real decisions you would do when you roll the dice.

Since I don't speak <lots of black and red lines on a page>, can anyone give me the elevator pitch summary here?

Since I don't speak <lots of black and red lines on a page>, can anyone give me the elevator pitch summary here?

It was in the OP, same premise with the last ones. You start in the center, the first lines are possibilities for your initial roll. Then come decisions (which die to I reroll, what ability do I use), and marked in red is the best choice (done by calculating all future decisions and possibilities from that point).

It's basically a flowchart of the best decisions to take at any given point when you're rolling with Keyan (for instance, last graphic)

We can call it "The wheel of fortune and choices" if you'd like (WoFaC)

I have. So I finally finished a script to calculate it and display it rather nicely. This is a tree where the center is the origin point, it branches out based on rolls (only black lines) or based on choices (some lines red, some black). Choices can be to reroll 2 dice, 1 dice or none at all.

For Keyan with 1 Bomber Command Center: Average damage is 2.84, versus 2.5 without BCC (only a 13% increase, booo). But it's still interesting to see what to reroll. Basically on the Keyan reroll (which is first) you reroll everything that's not a Hit + Crit.

Also interesting is the B-wing with 2 Bomber Command Centers, which gives it a 35% increase in average damage (2.37 vs. 1.35). On the first reroll, you reroll black hits *unless there's an accuracy*. This is of course situational, because if you want to maximize damage and the opponent will use a brace (think 2 HP left on the ship) the best choice is different.

Both were rather intuitive, but what can I say, I like graphs. Hopefully I'll get more math results out of this script.

Do you have this in scratch and sniff?