Scenario:

A Raider I with Ordnance Expert is shooting at 6 squadrons. Throws 12 black dice with the potential to reroll both. What is the expected damage or average?

A GSD II with Demolisher shoots at 6 squadrons for 12 blue dice. It then moves with Demolisher and fires another 12 blue dice. What is the expected damage or average?

Cheers.

Pretty much the same? Assuming black plus OE = pretty close to 100%. Strictly speaking the glad should be slightly ahead.

​The gladiator covers a much bigger kill zone but is obviously a much higher cost in points and opportunity.

Scenario:

A Raider I with Ordnance Expert is shooting at 6 squadrons. Throws 12 black dice with the potential to reroll both. What is the expected damage or average?

A GSD II with Demolisher shoots at 6 squadrons for 12 blue dice. It then moves with Demolisher and fires another 12 blue dice. What is the expected damage or average?

Cheers.

Really? Why are we doing this for you?

Raider I is; 1 minus the chance of a double blank. = 1 - ( 2/8)^2 = 1-0.0625 = 93.75%, on 12 dice thats 11.25 average damage

Glad II is; crits equal 50% chance of a hit. So 0.5 hits, 0.25 crits = 0.625 average damage per dice, on 24 dice thats 15 average damage

Edit: so apparently no point defense reroute. Glad II is 0.5 damage per dice, on 24 dice thats 12 average damage.

Don't know the exact math, but the Raiser is going to clean up here on the average. Basically 94% of the time each black die is going to hit for the Raider, or about an 88% chance of hitting for two damage every shot.

The GSD, flinging blue dice had am average chance to hit of only 50% per die. Doing two damage to squadrons on two blue dice is a measly 25%.

When you account for double arcing, the math becomes painfully clear. A double arcing Raider with Ordnance Experts will hit for 4 damage a little over 77% of the time.

A Gladiator 2 will hit for two damage only half the time, and will hit a single squadron with all 4 damage only 6.5% of the time.

There is one major flaw in the comparison though.

The Raider I died to bombers before it could fire.

Sorry.

There is one major flaw in the comparison though.

The Raider I died to bombers before it could fire.

Sorry.

Then Gladiator didn't, and proceeded to hopefully hit a very expensive ship where it's unique math works out far better.

Raiders 1's with OE, are monster AA platforms, and are still a viable way of dealing with enemy squadrons.

I dunno why you would ever waste the points on Demo/Glad 2 for AA duties, far far better ways of dealing squadron damage, and not wasting "Demolisher" to boot.

far better ways of dealing squadron damage

For an Imp ship unsupported these would be?

I think the total expected damage isn't a good indicator here, because damage is distributed accross multiple bases.

The average expected damage per squadron :

- Raider I with OE (reroll all blanks) : 2 x (0.75 + 0.25*0.75) = 1.875

- Gladiator II with Demo double shot : 2 x 2 x 0.5 = 2

Then again, the average damage per squadron is not accurate enough for a reliable expectation, due to variance. In short, Raider I has more secure damage with a shorter range, Gladiator II with Demo has more damage "potential" but higher variance. For that we need to look at the probabilities per shot, but I'll let you guys do that

For the Raider I with Ordnance Experts, the probability of dealging 0 damage per shot is 0.39%, meaning that on 99.61 it's going to deal at least 1 damage.

Comparatively, the Gladiator II with Demo has a probability of dealing 0 damage per shot of 6.25% (he needs to roll 2 x 2 accs or crits on a 50%), meaning that it has a probability of dealing at least 1 damage on a 93.75% chance.

The Raider I has 6% more chance to deal at least one damage than the Gladiator II, and has 6.24 times less chance to not deal any damage.

____

Ginkapo said :

"The Raider I died to bombers before it could fire."

This is extremely accurate, and considering the damage output of both ships in anti-squadron per turn (avg 1.875 and 2), the math shows that having a single dedicated anti-squadron ship is not enough for a reliable anti-squadron force.

Conclusion : For effective anti-squadron, pair the anti-squadron barrage of ships with other anti-squadron barrage and squadron bases to pin the enemies down and do damage while they're pinned.

far better ways of dealing squadron damage

For an Imp ship unsupported these would be?

The largest obstacle facing Imperial Commanders is bringing your ships best dice arc into play, it is often very very difficult to get said arcs into play, Demolisher is the only way of overcoming that obstacle, with that being said, that makes anything else better for attacking squadrons, leaving Demolisher to do what it does best and hammer ships with its black dice.

With the advent of Bomber Command(s) turning X-Wings into reliable ship damage dealing platforms (red dice too fickle without rerolls) Imperials need to be building dedicated Anti Squadron builds, and they get some of the best Anti Squadron synergy currently available.

I think the total expected damage isn't a good indicator here, because damage is distributed accross multiple bases.

The average expected damage per squadron :

- Raider I with OE (reroll all blanks) : 2 x (0.75 + 0.25*0.75) = 1.875

- Gladiator II with Demo double shot : 2 x 2 x 0.5 = 2

Then again, the average damage per squadron is not accurate enough for a reliable expectation, due to variance. In short, Raider I has more secure damage with a shorter range, Gladiator II with Demo has more damage "potential" but higher variance. For that we need to look at the probabilities per shot, but I'll let you guys do that

For the Raider I with Ordnance Experts, the probability of dealging 0 damage per shot is 0.39%, meaning that on 99.61 it's going to deal at least 1 damage.

Comparatively, the Gladiator II with Demo has a probability of dealing 0 damage per shot of 6.25% (he needs to roll 2 x 2 accs or crits on a 50%), meaning that it has a probability of dealing at least 1 damage on a 93.75% chance.

The Raider I has 6% more chance to deal at least one damage than the Gladiator II, and has 6.24 times less chance to not deal any damage.

____

Ginkapo said :

"The Raider I died to bombers before it could fire."

This is extremely accurate, and considering the damage output of both ships in anti-squadron per turn (avg 1.875 and 2), the math shows that having a single dedicated anti-squadron ship is not enough for a reliable anti-squadron force.

Conclusion : For effective anti-squadron, pair the anti-squadron barrage of ships with other anti-squadron barrage and squadron bases to pin the enemies down and do damage while they're pinned.

Gladiator with blue dice has a 50/50 chance of dealing 1 or zero damage.

Raider 1 with black dice and OE, has a 75% chance of dealing 1 damage, with a 75% chance of getting 1 damage after rerolling a blank.

Not sure how you are getting an average damage of 2 on 2 blue dice, odds are you will roll 1 damage on a 2 dice throw with a 50/50 chance and no reroll.

I think the total expected damage isn't a good indicator here, because damage is distributed accross multiple bases.

The average expected damage per squadron :

- Raider I with OE (reroll all blanks) : 2 x (0.75 + 0.25*0.75) = 1.875

- Gladiator II with Demo double shot : 2 x 2 x 0.5 = 2

Then again, the average damage per squadron is not accurate enough for a reliable expectation, due to variance. In short, Raider I has more secure damage with a shorter range, Gladiator II with Demo has more damage "potential" but higher variance. For that we need to look at the probabilities per shot, but I'll let you guys do that

For the Raider I with Ordnance Experts, the probability of dealging 0 damage per shot is 0.39%, meaning that on 99.61 it's going to deal at least 1 damage.

Comparatively, the Gladiator II with Demo has a probability of dealing 0 damage per shot of 6.25% (he needs to roll 2 x 2 accs or crits on a 50%), meaning that it has a probability of dealing at least 1 damage on a 93.75% chance.

The Raider I has 6% more chance to deal at least one damage than the Gladiator II, and has 6.24 times less chance to not deal any damage.

____

Ginkapo said :

"The Raider I died to bombers before it could fire."

This is extremely accurate, and considering the damage output of both ships in anti-squadron per turn (avg 1.875 and 2), the math shows that having a single dedicated anti-squadron ship is not enough for a reliable anti-squadron force.

Conclusion : For effective anti-squadron, pair the anti-squadron barrage of ships with other anti-squadron barrage and squadron bases to pin the enemies down and do damage while they're pinned.

Gladiator with blue dice has a 50/50 chance of dealing 1 or zero damage.

Raider 1 with black dice and OE, has a 75% chance of dealing 1 damage, with a 75% chance of getting 1 damage after rerolling a blank.

Not sure how you are getting an average damage of 2 on 2 blue dice, odds are you will roll 1 damage on a 2 dice throw with a 50/50 chance and no reroll.

Demo gets 4 dice from two arcs.

I think the total expected damage isn't a good indicator here, because damage is distributed accross multiple bases.

The average expected damage per squadron :

- Raider I with OE (reroll all blanks) : 2 x (0.75 + 0.25*0.75) = 1.875

- Gladiator II with Demo double shot : 2 x 2 x 0.5 = 2

Then again, the average damage per squadron is not accurate enough for a reliable expectation, due to variance. In short, Raider I has more secure damage with a shorter range, Gladiator II with Demo has more damage "potential" but higher variance. For that we need to look at the probabilities per shot, but I'll let you guys do that

For the Raider I with Ordnance Experts, the probability of dealging 0 damage per shot is 0.39%, meaning that on 99.61 it's going to deal at least 1 damage.

Comparatively, the Gladiator II with Demo has a probability of dealing 0 damage per shot of 6.25% (he needs to roll 2 x 2 accs or crits on a 50%), meaning that it has a probability of dealing at least 1 damage on a 93.75% chance.

The Raider I has 6% more chance to deal at least one damage than the Gladiator II, and has 6.24 times less chance to not deal any damage.

____

Ginkapo said :

"The Raider I died to bombers before it could fire."

This is extremely accurate, and considering the damage output of both ships in anti-squadron per turn (avg 1.875 and 2), the math shows that having a single dedicated anti-squadron ship is not enough for a reliable anti-squadron force.

Conclusion : For effective anti-squadron, pair the anti-squadron barrage of ships with other anti-squadron barrage and squadron bases to pin the enemies down and do damage while they're pinned.

Gladiator with blue dice has a 50/50 chance of dealing 1 or zero damage.

Raider 1 with black dice and OE, has a 75% chance of dealing 1 damage, with a 75% chance of getting 1 damage after rerolling a blank.

Not sure how you are getting an average damage of 2 on 2 blue dice, odds are you will roll 1 damage on a 2 dice throw with a 50/50 chance and no reroll.

Demo gets 4 dice from two arcs.

Yes you're right.

I'd totally ignored Demolisher, because I've got a mental block on using it in such a fashion!

The chance of dealing 0 dmg on 2 blue dice is 25%, no?

The chance of dealing 0 dmg on 2 blue dice is 25%, no?

Yes, but when you consider 4 dice (2 shots due to demo), it's 50%^4, 6.25% chance of dealing 0 damage.

12,5% chance, no?

Edit: brainfart

The chance of dealing 0 dmg on 2 blue dice is 25%, no?

Yes, but when you consider 4 dice (2 shots due to demo), it's 50%^4, 6.25% chance of dealing 0 damage.

But surely the exact same calculation can be applied in reverse? with a 50/50 base.

Another thing to consider is across a bunch of squadrons the damage will be spread.

The Raider is probably going to do a solid 2 damage to every target, but can't do more than that.

But the Glad will likely do a combination of 1, 2, 3 or even 4 (or zero!) damage to indivdual squadrons in the kill zone. The ones where he does 3 or 4 are the ones where you can kick in ruhless strategists, or follow up for easy kills in the follow up.

You all are forgetting something. Add in a squadron with scatter and the the Glad II gets better (assuming you have no squadrons to entice them not use scatter). Them accuracies CAN do something vs some squadrons.

Glad II, Ruthless Strategists, Fighter Coordination Teams, Demolisher.

Brutal.

(Screed better be your commander so that you can still do work against ships)

Glad twos with demo are very very good against bomber balls, far more potent than a raider, it's not just about the dice, it's the blue range, shoot move shoot and engine tec for extra manovering. A single raider is generally nothing more than speed bump that a bomber ball can kill a demo glad two can actively hunt bomber balls. Especially it's got agent callus a few fights to back it up and if paired with a coupe of other 2 blue dice ships.

The largest obstacle facing Imperial Commanders is bringing your ships best dice arc into play, it is often very very difficult to get said arcs into play, Demolisher is the only way of overcoming that obstacle, with that being said, that makes anything else better for attacking squadrons, leaving Demolisher to do what it does best and hammer ships with its black dice.

Currently. Imagine Jerjerod on any imperial ship. Turning on a dime, problem solved. Your ships will still probably stay in the strong arcs of the rebel gunships, but you'll definitely keep them in yours, which are typically much more threatening. Combine with the slowing effects of the interdictor (or even PQ7s), and TRC90s will die. Fast.

It's just an opportunity cost in terms of not taking the die-modifying screed/Vader or the longevity of motti.

This got me thinking. The thing with G8s and tractors is they force the enemy to spam nav commands.....

So I give you

Da NavBomber

Author: Ginkapo

Faction: Galactic Empire

Points: 395/400

Commander: General Tagge

Assault Objective: Precision Strike

Defense Objective: Fleet Ambush

Navigation Objective: Superior Positions

[ flagship ] Interdictor-class Suppression Refit (90 points)

- General Tagge ( 25 points)

- Interdictor ( 3 points)

- Wulff Yularen ( 7 points)

- Projection Experts ( 6 points)

- Phylon Q7 Tractor Beams ( 6 points)

- Targeting Scrambler ( 5 points)

- G-8 Experiemental Projector ( 8 points)

= 150 total ship cost

Gladiator II-Class Star Destroyer (62 points)

- Demolisher ( 10 points)

- Agent Kallus ( 3 points)

- Ruthless Strategists ( 4 points)

= 79 total ship cost

Gozanti-class Cruisers (23 points)

- Phylon Q7 Tractor Beams ( 6 points)

- Bomber Command Center ( 8 points)

= 37 total ship cost

1 Dengar ( 20 points)

1 TIE Advanced Squadron ( 12 points)

1 Major Rhymer ( 16 points)

9 TIE Bomber Squadrons ( 81 points)

Card view link

Fleet created with Armada Warlords

Used demo ii the other night with ruthless, n sprays, n mithel, liquefied enemy x's and a's... sprays are pretty good in this regard

I thought about fct, to get a free mithel along with regular activation in one turn, not sure its worth it/required... plus losing engine tech is bad for a anti ship and anti squad...

The big issue is the engagement... you need to control the flow of battle so that demo can either shot squads or ships and doesn't have to make a tough decision between both... rhyme can help by keeping squads back enough so that any squads that engage them, demo can focus on without worrying about a ship...