This came up in a thread so I did another one of my charts.

Board assumptions:

• Homing Missile always grants you an extra dice modifier (focus or target lock, which both increase the hit chance on each die from 50% to 75%) as it doesn't spend the lock.
• LRS grants you an extra dice modifier from locking ahead of time. Therefore LRS Homing is double modified.

Homing is always at least a hair better, but if no evade tokens are involved there's very little in it comparing Long Range Scanner results: Concussions can safely substitute Homings in an LRS build if you're strapped for points.

Homing flat out outperforms Concussion with Guidance Chips or with neither modification.

Theres also the hidden mental benefit of homing missiles: often people will opt to NOT take an evade and do a focus or other action because theres a homer about to hit them anyway, which allows other ships to attack harder too.

It's still worth taking evade if another ship is going to shoot you. Homings only negate evades entirely if the only attack is a Homing: if that evade token is spent at all that round it's blocked a damage.

Hence why its a mental thing. Mind games are awesome.

The solidified 4die hit with TL + Focus that denies evades makes people think its worthless to even take it. Sometimes it is, since ive 1shotted ships with homers that took an evade because of my defender on the side (yay blanked evade dice), but more often than not yeah the evade for ship#2 is still better. Unless they both are spewing homers that is lol

If a ship is rolling at least 4 green dice in a turn -- on one attack or multiple attacks -- a focus is statistically better than an evade, anyway. (The expectation is 1 evade; it's not guaranteed to roll one, but it might also roll more than one.) So if it's a mind-game, it's kind of a bad one.

4? the only ships that have 4 are getting an evade anyway (x7 defenders/fel/jax/OL with stealth device) whether theres homers around or not.

If you fire ordnance through a rock youre kinda asking for the shot to be wasted.

Should 4 Dice Raw and Homing Missles Raw be equivalent assuming Range 2 and ships with a TL?

I can see at Range 3 and if there is an evade involved that there would be a difference, but at Range 2, both should be equal against a target that has a focus or no modifiers.

Also - are your numbers assuming there is an evade on the target or just rolling and modifying dice??

I have a current build with Concussions and unfortunately am at 100, with nothing I can move around to free up the extra point.

4? the only ships that have 4 are getting an evade anyway

Four green dice total . So a T-65 defending twice is rolling four green dice.

If you're rolling four green dice, total, your expectation is 1 eyeball, and hence 1 evade. If you're rolling more than four green dice, total, that goes up.

An evade token has the advantages that it can allow you to exceed your green dice in number of evades generated, and that it's a guaranteed result (as long as there are otherwise uncanceled hits/crits). A focus token has the advantage that it's usable for offense if its unusable for defense, and that it might modify multiple dice.

Statistically, all else being equal, evade == focus on four (total) green dice, and evade < focus on five or more (total) green dice.

Thank you for this chart. It is much easier to read than the last one I saw about chance to hit with dice plus modifications.

Too bad A-Wings can't take long range sensors

Let me chime in with something: I played 6Z concussion misisles with glitterstim for 20 + games pre Chimps.

With a Focus, I came to exactly the same conclusion: 75% of 4 hits. 20% ish of 3 hits, and a rare 5% of 2 hits.

That tends to look good, but let me tell you that the number of times I got 3 hits and really needed 4 mattered quite often. 1 in 4 of your shots average will come up 3 hits.

This came up in a thread so I did another one of my charts.

Board assumptions:

• Homing Missile always grants you an extra dice modifier (focus or target lock, which both increase the hit chance on each die from 50% to 75%) as it doesn't spend the lock.
• LRS grants you an extra dice modifier from locking ahead of time. Therefore LRS Homing is double modified.

Homing is always at least a hair better, but if no evade tokens are involved there's very little in it comparing Long Range Scanner results: Concussions can safely substitute Homings in an LRS build if you're strapped for points.

Homing flat out outperforms Concussion with Guidance Chips or with neither modification.

You go Homing Missiles, always. If you roll well you get to keep the target lock for another attack, potentially another missile. That alone is worth the one point increase.

They also deny evade tokens.

No contest, Homing Missiles every time. Don't have room? Make room.

Homing negates the x7 title. So in a Defender heavy enviroment its worth bringing for that alone

I can see at Range 3 and if there is an evade involved that there would be a difference, but at Range 2, both should be equal against a target that has a focus or no modifiers.

Secondary Weapons... Range 2/3 makes no difference.

Unless you're accounting for Autothrusters I suppose?

Unless the rules changed and nobody's told me? Because that's happened before...

4? the only ships that have 4 are getting an evade anyway (x7 defenders/fel/jax/OL with stealth device) whether theres homers around or not.

If you fire ordnance through a rock youre kinda asking for the shot to be wasted.

Concussion is not really that good of a missile. It sort of haves the same problem that Advanced Proton Torpedoes have, in order to get the most out of it you have to set it up with both a target lock and a focus. If you have ways of generating free focus tokens then concussion missiles could be alright but that usually cost more than the extra points you could just spent to take homing instead.

Homing still has its problems, thing is missiles secondary weapons don't have the deadeye-pre nerf R4 Agro combo that Torpedo weapons now have.

I bought 4 concussion missiles and 4 homing just to be safe. Also because Concussion missiles are dirt cheap on ebay.

Concussion is not really that good of a missile. It sort of haves the same problem that Advanced Proton Torpedoes have, in order to get the most out of it you have to set it up with both a target lock and a focus.

Not true. A concussion missile with chips should average 3.5 hits/crits. That's pretty solid. Yes having a focus virtually guaruntees all hits, but you have a good chance without it.

Concussion is not really that good of a missile. It sort of haves the same problem that Advanced Proton Torpedoes have, in order to get the most out of it you have to set it up with both a target lock and a focus.

Not true. A concussion missile with chips should average 3.5 hits/crits. That's pretty solid. Yes having a focus virtually guaruntees all hits, but you have a good chance without it.

Well so does Advanced Proton Torpedoes. You can use it without focus but you are not getting the maximum potential while still paying the squadron points. If there was a way to double focus deadeye concussion missiles on a ship that also has a torpedo slot then concussion missiles might be some good especially with guidance chips.

Should 4 Dice Raw and Homing Missles Raw be equivalent assuming Range 2 and ships with a TL?

I can see at Range 3 and if there is an evade involved that there would be a difference, but at Range 2, both should be equal against a target that has a focus or no modifiers.

Also - are your numbers assuming there is an evade on the target or just rolling and modifying dice??

I have a current build with Concussions and unfortunately am at 100, with nothing I can move around to free up the extra point.

This numbers are attack die results. 4 dice raw is just rolling three dice, Homing Missiles Raw is singly modified.

Very helpful, Blue Five! I've always considered Concussions to be the choice for alpha strike lists due to its low cost. You'll almost always roll 3-4 hits even without the Focus.

On the other hand, if you're hunting aces then there's no substitute for Homing Missiles. A Miranda with HM is terrifying. I think of HMs as coming with a one-time use 4LOM that unfortunately only works on the evade token.

Concussion is not really that good of a missile. It sort of haves the same problem that Advanced Proton Torpedoes have, in order to get the most out of it you have to set it up with both a target lock and a focus.

Not true. A concussion missile with chips should average 3.5 hits/crits. That's pretty solid. Yes having a focus virtually guaruntees all hits, but you have a good chance without it.

Well so does Advanced Proton Torpedoes. You can use it without focus but you are not getting the maximum potential while still paying the squadron points. If there was a way to double focus deadeye concussion missiles on a ship that also has a torpedo slot then concussion missiles might be some good especially with guidance chips.

I know you haven't liked ordnance for a long time, but I think you are wrong on this. Yes, it's great to maximize your efforts and you need a Focus to maximize your points.....but you don't have to maximize your points to be effective. Just look at the above chart for Concussion Missile with Guidance Chip and you will see:

• You have a 60% of getting the maximum 4 hits
• Your minimum rolls will still be 2 hits, and it's only a 10% chance
• Having a Focus, as well, only increases your chance of max damage 15%

Is it more efficient to have a Focus, as well? Sure. Is it not worth it to not have a Focus? Hardly.