But Shmitty's data did show that the tide was turning toward Rebels.

Oh? Please elaborate. I'm genuinely interested how you came to this conclusion based on the data shown.

The percentage of Imperial fleet archetypes in Top 4 was steadily dropping starting mid-May.

I was just going to say that I usually eliminate the opposition by underhanded means. It's the most efficient really. Does kinda kill a community though. Might need to work on that part.....

If I told you once, I've told you a thousand times....

Necromancy, man.

Solves that problem quick-smart.

Well. Not really smart.

Really, Really Dumb.

But they go through the Motions, at least.

At least it's easy pickings.....

But Shmitty's data did show that the tide was turning toward Rebels.

Oh? Please elaborate. I'm genuinely interested how you came to this conclusion based on the data shown.

https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/222651-regionals-data-analysis/

The percentage of Imperial fleet archetypes in Top 4 was steadily dropping starting mid-May.

That was when the Clonisher was starting to drop off and Rieekan started to pick up

Wait. . . the imperials had the advantage in wave 2? I must of missed that. . .

Yup, guess you did.

It's in the data, where Imps made up ~80% of the Top 4 lists during Regionals despite only making up about 60% of the overall field.

Did you perform statistical tests to see if these results are representative enough to give you this conclusion?

I think maybe your sample size was too small and possibly the shift falls within random error.

Maybe but much of it was likely taken from Shmitty's data

Indeed, drawn from the wonderfully well organized and fairly extensive results thread and the trends discussed within.

Have I looked at the results again in the past few months? Nope. Did I run ANOVA tests on the results to compare between playgroups? Did I look to see if p-values and alpha values indicated relatively confident statistical significance? Did I thoroughly consider implications of Type-1 and Type-2 errors and set up tournaments accordingly to test within acceptable parameters? Of course not. But it is far and away the best data we could hope to have for a relatively small game like Armada with relatively infrequent tournaments.

But Shmitty's data did show that the tide was turning toward Rebels.

Oh? Please elaborate. I'm genuinely interested how you came to this conclusion based on the data shown.

The Imperials were having comparatively less success by the end of the season that they were having at the start-middle, perhaps?

Perhaps, but that can also mean caliber of players participating, % of those players playing Rebels vs. Imperials (Rebel dominant meta), early success of Imperials being studied and then countered by Rebel generals, or just plain luck.

I don't think we can safely say for sure that they already have.. especially when they're also in the same wave.

Edit: ah i missed dras' post saying the same thing

The thing is, we can assign all of those variables to initial Imperial Success too.. I mean, was it just luck, good matchups, etc...

If its not definitive through trends for one side, then its not definitive through trends to the other...

If it can be applied in trend to one side, then it can be applied to trend to the other...

I mean, I know you work more for statistics and trends than I do... But dismissing the mere possibility because there are other factors involved seems un-scientific to me, unless those factors are applied equally to all of the statistics.

So I guess my point is, its either a trend, or its nebulous - can't really ascribe it to either side without more variables being defined.

Agreed, but this doesn't change the fact that Demolisher and Rhymer are huge driving factors for the success of Imperials in Wave 2, or Rieekan being the most successful commander for Rebels. These are not trend related statistics, but a mere demonstration of where we stand in the meta. Hence why I agreed with AWing's point that Imperials are not at all handicapped.

I'm not the one who brought up trends here. Just because we see Rebels win towards the tail end of Wave 2 on a Regional level doesn't mean much to me, as I already mentioned several factors that might have contributed to those wins (same applies for Imperial wins in the beginning). What we can do look at, is regardless of how you want to analyze these trends, the hard statistics that AWing has pointed out already are what really matters.

Mythics pointed out to me once that the Empire is determining the meta. The Rebels are reacting to it. The presence of Demolisher and Rhymer are forcing Rebel players to trend to Rieekan to at least try to take the Empire out with them on the same turn, or hoping for a favorable exchange with recently dead ships. Rieekan also has a presence in the movement game by making "dead" ships block Demolisher and other ship movement.

Until there's a Rebel combination forcing Empire players to change up their meta to "keep up", Empire is still going to be "leading" the meta by being the pro-active force everyone has to respond to.

Frankly, I wish that determining piece was the ISD instead, because that way it would make sense (being the iconic ship of the Star Wars universe) but instead it's the un-canon cartoon Demolisher and a lone TIE Bomber pilot defined by Decipher in the 90's. That's another line of thinking however, over being an Imperial fan but not really happy to have supposed meta superiority in this way. Anyway...

For a brief period Ackbar was the big meta-defining card for the Rebels' side of things. Ackbar was really cutting down the viable Imperial lists that could be fielded against it (My personal favorite VSD-VSD-ISD combination was lost to this), which pushed Imperial players to lean into the DeMSU and Rhymerball lists that are currently unmatched coming into Wave 3/4.

So to answer whether the tide is turning back to the Rebels' favor, you have to ask if the new commanders and upgrades are either blunting the impact of these two items, or if the new craft and upgrades can create a situation that force the Imperials to react to them instead.

Because oddly, one of the greatest counters to Demolisher introduced in Wave 3/4 is the Interdictor... an Imperial ship.

Because oddly, one of the greatest counters to Demolisher introduced in Wave 3/4 is the Interdictor... an Imperial ship.

Yeah that's weird. It's like they are trying to give Imperial players options that aren't Demo that can counter Demo to mix up the meta.

Frankly, I find the whole bit about nerfing and OP and statistics driven and finding the "best combination" to be the antithesis of what I enjoy about the game, anyway. So most of the time, I'm finding the whole discussion an exercise in pedantry.

And look at me in the rules forum.

I know pedantry when I see it, because I live it

Mythics pointed out to me once that the Empire is determining the meta. The Rebels are reacting to it. The presence of Demolisher and Rhymer are forcing Rebel players to trend to Rieekan to at least try to take the Empire out with them on the same turn, or hoping for a favorable exchange with recently dead ships. Rieekan also has a presence in the movement game by making "dead" ships block Demolisher and other ship movement.

Until there's a Rebel combination forcing Empire players to change up their meta to "keep up", Empire is still going to be "leading" the meta by being the pro-active force everyone has to respond to.

Frankly, I wish that determining piece was the ISD instead, because that way it would make sense (being the iconic ship of the Star Wars universe) but instead it's the un-canon cartoon Demolisher and a lone TIE Bomber pilot defined by Decipher in the 90's. That's another line of thinking however, over being an Imperial fan but not really happy to have supposed meta superiority in this way. Anyway...

For a brief period Ackbar was the big meta-defining card for the Rebels' side of things. Ackbar was really cutting down the viable Imperial lists that could be fielded against it (My personal favorite VSD-VSD-ISD combination was lost to this), which pushed Imperial players to lean into the DeMSU and Rhymerball lists that are currently unmatched coming into Wave 3/4.

So to answer whether the tide is turning back to the Rebels' favor, you have to ask if the new commanders and upgrades are either blunting the impact of these two items, or if the new craft and upgrades can create a situation that force the Imperials to react to them instead.

Because oddly, one of the greatest counters to Demolisher introduced in Wave 3/4 is the Interdictor... an Imperial ship.

This... really seems.. familiar.

http://lkhero.blogspot.com/2016/08/armada-imperials-set-tone.html

Because oddly, one of the greatest counters to Demolisher introduced in Wave 3/4 is the Interdictor... an Imperial ship.

Yeah that's weird. It's like they are trying to give Imperial players options that aren't Demo that can counter Demo to mix up the meta.

*cough* Slicer Beams *cough*

Seriously though, a list relying on a tooled up demolisher can be countered by 2 flotilla's. So for 62 Rebel points you have 2 blockers that can stop demolisher for 1-2 needed turns and if they are putting Nav Officer on the Demo that means they cant Intel the scatter so they either have to waste shots or waste movement. That is a Win win for the sacrifice of a 31 point ship to stop a 66+ ship.

Mythics pointed out to me once that the Empire is determining the meta. The Rebels are reacting to it. The presence of Demolisher and Rhymer are forcing Rebel players to trend to Rieekan to at least try to take the Empire out with them on the same turn, or hoping for a favorable exchange with recently dead ships. Rieekan also has a presence in the movement game by making "dead" ships block Demolisher and other ship movement.

Until there's a Rebel combination forcing Empire players to change up their meta to "keep up", Empire is still going to be "leading" the meta by being the pro-active force everyone has to respond to.

Frankly, I wish that determining piece was the ISD instead, because that way it would make sense (being the iconic ship of the Star Wars universe) but instead it's the un-canon cartoon Demolisher and a lone TIE Bomber pilot defined by Decipher in the 90's. That's another line of thinking however, over being an Imperial fan but not really happy to have supposed meta superiority in this way. Anyway...

For a brief period Ackbar was the big meta-defining card for the Rebels' side of things. Ackbar was really cutting down the viable Imperial lists that could be fielded against it (My personal favorite VSD-VSD-ISD combination was lost to this), which pushed Imperial players to lean into the DeMSU and Rhymerball lists that are currently unmatched coming into Wave 3/4.

So to answer whether the tide is turning back to the Rebels' favor, you have to ask if the new commanders and upgrades are either blunting the impact of these two items, or if the new craft and upgrades can create a situation that force the Imperials to react to them instead.

Because oddly, one of the greatest counters to Demolisher introduced in Wave 3/4 is the Interdictor... an Imperial ship.

Just my $.02 maybe the Empire is leading the direction of the meta (not in my area, but that may be a different story), and the Rebles are reacting to the Empire. This in and of itself does not mean that the empire is more power, and the rebels are weaker, anymore than the fact that the leaders are playing Empire (they may just be the best players regardless of side they play). In my area it is the Empire who is trying to react to the Rebles (now maybe our Rebel players are just better, or our Empire players are worse), we stopped using Demolisher a long time ago as it was found to be a waist of points, and Rymer also does not make it to the table much as is not seen worth the points (IG-88 on the other hand is almost on the table 100% of the time). So at least in my area the Rebles have been seen the most powerful and getting more so with each wave.

I find your lack of faith disturbing. The power of TRC's is nothing compared to the power of the space warping awesomeness of this technological terror we have created (Interdictor). **** the torpedo's full speed ahead, well not for demo, he is locked down by tractors and konstantine....

I honestly love that the rebels are now moving toward a stand up fight and not the skirt around the edges fight with trc90's. I am really looking forward to the first opportunity I have to force a player to launch his cr90 off the board with speed mods.

I find your lack of faith disturbing. The power of TRC's is nothing compared to the power of the space warping awesomeness of this technological terror we have created (Interdictor). **** the torpedo's full speed ahead, well not for demo, he is locked down by tractors and konstantine....

I honestly love that the rebels are now moving toward a stand up fight and not the skirt around the edges fight with trc90's. I am really looking forward to the first opportunity I have to force a player to launch his cr90 off the board with speed mods.

Until Madine lets it to a complete 180.

Because oddly, one of the greatest counters to Demolisher introduced in Wave 3/4 is the Interdictor... an Imperial ship.

This... really seems.. familiar.

http://lkhero.blogspot.com/2016/08/armada-imperials-set-tone.html

*Shrug* perhaps Mythics read up on your article. I feel he pays more attention to some areas of Armada more than I do. I know he certainly gets more opportunities for games than I do, being more central in the Bay Area than I am.

The mc80 is closer to the gladatior then the raider.

But i think the imperial ships mesh better then the rebels. I ran a rebel version of the cloner fleet with duel mc30 and 3 cr90. And only took 4th cause two of my three opponents were fairly new.

Side note a mc30 can sit in a mc80 front arc and get double broadside on the mc8p front arc.

I feel the scale is still tip towards the imps. But then rhymer should of been worder to increase range to Close not medium

For a brief period Ackbar was the big meta-defining card for the Rebels' side of things. Ackbar was really cutting down the viable Imperial lists that could be fielded against it (My personal favorite VSD-VSD-ISD combination was lost to this), which pushed Imperial players to lean into the DeMSU and Rhymerball lists that are currently unmatched coming into Wave 3/4.

I actually would love to fight against one of those Imperial lists. I'm pretty sure I can beat it with Wave 1 Rebels Anyone up for a Vassal game soonish ?

EDIT : Okay, I won't exclude Wave 2 cards and squadrons too!

For a brief period Ackbar was the big meta-defining card for the Rebels' side of things. Ackbar was really cutting down the viable Imperial lists that could be fielded against it (My personal favorite VSD-VSD-ISD combination was lost to this), which pushed Imperial players to lean into the DeMSU and Rhymerball lists that are currently unmatched coming into Wave 3/4.

I actually would love to fight against one of those Imperial lists. I'm pretty sure I can beat it with Wave 1 Rebels Anyone up for a Vassal game soonish ?

EDIT : Okay, I won't exclude Wave 2 cards and squadrons too!

There's no such thing as wave I DeMSU... the Raider was important to it.

Did I mention a Wave 1 DeMSU ? I just said I'd feel comfortable taking the current iterations of the list with Wave 1 Rebels (and maybe Han Solo, because Han Solo is awesome).

Did I mention a Wave 1 DeMSU ? I just said I'd feel comfortable taking the current iterations of the list with Wave 1 Rebels (and maybe Han Solo, because Han Solo is awesome).

K, I'll take you on. Never run DeMSU before, but it cant be that different to MC30s and I know Clons logic behind the list.

I have one condition. You upgrade to the new Vassal module.