Has the age of big initiative bids come to an end?

By Rocmistro, in Star Wars: Armada

As for this who is going first, I think this kind of conversation is really list dependent. In your case, having first player is great. But you also had 6 activations I think? This is a huge advantage. Look at autonomous builds like the Fireball for example, or even Rieekan Carriers. These builds do not really care about having first player for the most part, and they only care about out-racing other carrier builds potentially.

What I'm trying to get at is that while every list wants to go first, the ability to go second and still play to the lists strengths is what determines the lists' viability and resilience in a competitive setting. List resilience for me, means the ability to fight against all manners of the meta either as first or second player. If your list cannot do this, then that means that chances it will be hard-countered or it falls flat on its face for losing the bid increases dramatically. Personally, those lists are the ones I find really weak.

So what determines a lists resilience?

1. Matchups - How does it perform vs. XYZ, flavor of the month builds.

2. What does it aim to out-speed? - This is bid-related, but more specifically, a very specific build in mind.

3. How does it perform as second player? - Does your list play the missions well? Do you have any ships that have to go first?

I'll use the list that I built with my Home One, MKII and TRC90 build as an example here.

1. Matchups - I believe it does well against most matchups, it's weaker vs. squadron-heavy, stronger vs. heavy-ship builds. I can break this apart much further, but I will save that for another article when I have time.

2. What does it aim to out-speed? - In my meta, it was aiming to outspeed 385 build Demo builds specifically. This is like competitive Pokemon. I use this reference a lot because I played the hell out of that game. It doesn't matter if your Pokemon outspeeds 99% of the Pokemon out there, it only needs to outspeed that ONE Pokemon you would rather not see across the table. In this case, it was 385 Demo builds.

3. How does it perform as second player? - I really like playing the missions with my list. While the MC80 likes to go first, it's also durable enough to influence the game if it does not go first.

Long story short: The order of whether or not you want first player, is a lot more complicated than "yes, I want first player". It's the above and then some that you need to be thinking about when designing a list. Not everything is black and white, and it's one of the reasons why this question in particular gets brought up time and time again.

I don't really agree with that. With the new tools such as slicer tools and tractor beams on cheap platforms you can now be second and still deny Demo centric builds.

Actually, WWPDSteven had a game last night where his 80C went second against a Demo Swarm with squadrons and he won that one reliable. He was out activated as well.

You got to run it in reverse though. How much worse do you think it would have been for Demo if he wasn't first player? At least in regards to this thread, that's the point and probably a good indication why you'll continue to see high bids.

Demo is almost too good not to run + Demo needs first player to really sing + You can guarantee 1st player by taking an outrageous bid = bid stay mondo big

Demo does not need First Player to sing. As shown at GenCon when the winner was a 2 ship list that did not take first and had Demo.

The construct of Demolisher requiring first to sing is just that. A construct that was created and people try to stick to.

I did not think I could win a game with my High Activation. high bid list as second yet it was done. Don't limit yourself just because that was how it has been.

I don't think that big initiatives are gone, just that there are far fewer lists that are actively going for that style of "first player at the exclusion of all else."

I ran a 23 point bid at GenCon, and I played against primarily squadron fleets. Squadron-focused fleets really need that high point cost to properly mass and activate their squadrons. However, I play a super aggressive list and there were big benefits to controlling the opening 1-2 rounds by being the first and last to move.

You got to run it in reverse though. How much worse do you think it would have been for Demo if he wasn't first player? At least in regards to this thread, that's the point and probably a good indication why you'll continue to see high bids.

Demo is almost too good not to run + Demo needs first player to really sing + You can guarantee 1st player by taking an outrageous bid = bid stay mondo big

Yes, exactly my point.

He stays big because when you examine a DeMSU list, there is one primary threat on the table, it hits insanely hard, it really needs first, and often takes outrageous bids to takes first.

When you break down what I said above, DeMSU is one of the builds that does not have list resiliency. It is most potent when it goes first, and arguably falls apart when it does not. This is the exact opposite of the kind of resiliency I look for when I design lists. It doesn't play missions exceptionally well, it relies on a lynch-pin in the list to do most of the damage and to erase larger threats, and without first it runs into very hard matchups.

You got to run it in reverse though. How much worse do you think it would have been for Demo if he wasn't first player? At least in regards to this thread, that's the point and probably a good indication why you'll continue to see high bids.

Demo is almost too good not to run + Demo needs first player to really sing + You can guarantee 1st player by taking an outrageous bid = bid stay mondo big

Yes, exactly my point.

He stays big because when you examine a DeMSU list, there is one primary threat on the table, it hits insanely hard, it really needs first, and often takes outrageous bids to takes first.

When you break down what I said above, DeMSU is one of the builds that does not have list resiliency. It is most potent when it goes first, and arguably falls apart when it does not. This is the exact opposite of the kind of resiliency I look for when I design lists. It doesn't play missions exceptionally well, it relies on a lynch-pin in the list to do most of the damage and to erase larger threats, and without first it runs into very hard matchups.

There are ways around the lack of first player though. One is threatening other units and forcing your opponent to choose who they could lose. That is HUGE on its own because it forces a decision.

As for this who is going first, I think this kind of conversation is really list dependent. In your case, having first player is great. But you also had 6 activations I think? This is a huge advantage. Look at autonomous builds like the Fireball for example, or even Rieekan Carriers. These builds do not really care about having first player for the most part, and they only care about out-racing other carrier builds potentially.

What I'm trying to get at is that while every list wants to go first, the ability to go second and still play to the lists strengths is what determines the lists' viability and resilience in a competitive setting. List resilience for me, means the ability to fight against all manners of the meta either as first or second player. If your list cannot do this, then that means that chances it will be hard-countered or it falls flat on its face for losing the bid increases dramatically. Personally, those lists are the ones I find really weak.

So what determines a lists resilience?

1. Matchups - How does it perform vs. XYZ, flavor of the month builds.

2. What does it aim to out-speed? - This is bid-related, but more specifically, a very specific build in mind.

3. How does it perform as second player? - Does your list play the missions well? Do you have any ships that have to go first?

I'll use the list that I built with my Home One, MKII and TRC90 build as an example here.

1. Matchups - I believe it does well against most matchups, it's weaker vs. squadron-heavy, stronger vs. heavy-ship builds. I can break this apart much further, but I will save that for another article when I have time.

2. What does it aim to out-speed? - In my meta, it was aiming to outspeed 385 build Demo builds specifically. This is like competitive Pokemon. I use this reference a lot because I played the hell out of that game. It doesn't matter if your Pokemon outspeeds 99% of the Pokemon out there, it only needs to outspeed that ONE Pokemon you would rather not see across the table. In this case, it was 385 Demo builds.

3. How does it perform as second player? - I really like playing the missions with my list. While the MC80 likes to go first, it's also durable enough to influence the game if it does not go first.

Long story short: The order of whether or not you want first player, is a lot more complicated than "yes, I want first player". It's the above and then some that you need to be thinking about when designing a list. Not everything is black and white, and it's one of the reasons why this question in particular gets brought up time and time again.

I don't really agree with that. With the new tools such as slicer tools and tractor beams on cheap platforms you can now be second and still deny Demo centric builds.

Actually, WWPDSteven had a game last night where his 80C went second against a Demo Swarm with squadrons and he won that one reliable. He was out activated as well.

You got to run it in reverse though. How much worse do you think it would have been for Demo if he wasn't first player? At least in regards to this thread, that's the point and probably a good indication why you'll continue to see high bids.

Demo is almost too good not to run + Demo needs first player to really sing + You can guarantee 1st player by taking an outrageous bid = bid stay mondo big

Demo does not need First Player to sing. As shown at GenCon when the winner was a 2 ship list that did not take first and had Demo.

The construct of Demolisher requiring first to sing is just that. A construct that was created and people try to stick to.

I did not think I could win a game with my High Activation. high bid list as second yet it was done. Don't limit yourself just because that was how it has been.

The GenCon winner took second because if you look at the matchup he's facing, having 1 ship activation advantage in a TWO ship list matchup is a much greater advantage than just going first. Being the reactive player in that matchup with his specific list also means he can greater advantage of his admiral being Ozzel to make better and more educated movement. The list at GenCon had a ISD-II to swing out and absorb damage, and a Rhymerball to distribute and deal damage over time, which is also different than a traditional discussion of Demo or not Demo.

Once again, it comes down to the list design and what the list actually aims to do, and not just "I want first", which is my entire point.

As for this who is going first, I think this kind of conversation is really list dependent. In your case, having first player is great. But you also had 6 activations I think? This is a huge advantage. Look at autonomous builds like the Fireball for example, or even Rieekan Carriers. These builds do not really care about having first player for the most part, and they only care about out-racing other carrier builds potentially.

What I'm trying to get at is that while every list wants to go first, the ability to go second and still play to the lists strengths is what determines the lists' viability and resilience in a competitive setting. List resilience for me, means the ability to fight against all manners of the meta either as first or second player. If your list cannot do this, then that means that chances it will be hard-countered or it falls flat on its face for losing the bid increases dramatically. Personally, those lists are the ones I find really weak.

So what determines a lists resilience?

1. Matchups - How does it perform vs. XYZ, flavor of the month builds.

2. What does it aim to out-speed? - This is bid-related, but more specifically, a very specific build in mind.

3. How does it perform as second player? - Does your list play the missions well? Do you have any ships that have to go first?

I'll use the list that I built with my Home One, MKII and TRC90 build as an example here.

1. Matchups - I believe it does well against most matchups, it's weaker vs. squadron-heavy, stronger vs. heavy-ship builds. I can break this apart much further, but I will save that for another article when I have time.

2. What does it aim to out-speed? - In my meta, it was aiming to outspeed 385 build Demo builds specifically. This is like competitive Pokemon. I use this reference a lot because I played the hell out of that game. It doesn't matter if your Pokemon outspeeds 99% of the Pokemon out there, it only needs to outspeed that ONE Pokemon you would rather not see across the table. In this case, it was 385 Demo builds.

3. How does it perform as second player? - I really like playing the missions with my list. While the MC80 likes to go first, it's also durable enough to influence the game if it does not go first.

Long story short: The order of whether or not you want first player, is a lot more complicated than "yes, I want first player". It's the above and then some that you need to be thinking about when designing a list. Not everything is black and white, and it's one of the reasons why this question in particular gets brought up time and time again.

I don't really agree with that. With the new tools such as slicer tools and tractor beams on cheap platforms you can now be second and still deny Demo centric builds.

Actually, WWPDSteven had a game last night where his 80C went second against a Demo Swarm with squadrons and he won that one reliable. He was out activated as well.

You got to run it in reverse though. How much worse do you think it would have been for Demo if he wasn't first player? At least in regards to this thread, that's the point and probably a good indication why you'll continue to see high bids.

Demo is almost too good not to run + Demo needs first player to really sing + You can guarantee 1st player by taking an outrageous bid = bid stay mondo big

Demo does not need First Player to sing. As shown at GenCon when the winner was a 2 ship list that did not take first and had Demo.

The construct of Demolisher requiring first to sing is just that. A construct that was created and people try to stick to.

I did not think I could win a game with my High Activation. high bid list as second yet it was done. Don't limit yourself just because that was how it has been.

The GenCon winner took second because if you look at the matchup he's facing, having 1 ship activation advantage in a TWO ship list matchup is a much greater advantage than just going first. Being the reactive player in that matchup with his specific list also means he can greater advantage of his admiral being Ozzel to make better and more educated movement. The list at GenCon had a ISD-II to swing out and absorb damage, and a Rhymerball to distribute and deal damage over time, which is also different than a traditional discussion of Demo or not Demo.

Once again, it comes down to the list design and what the list actually aims to do, and not just "I want first", which is my entire point.

It does not. That was proven in our match. Yes it is "important" but not a requirement. A player can make up for not having first/second.

As for this who is going first, I think this kind of conversation is really list dependent. In your case, having first player is great. But you also had 6 activations I think? This is a huge advantage. Look at autonomous builds like the Fireball for example, or even Rieekan Carriers. These builds do not really care about having first player for the most part, and they only care about out-racing other carrier builds potentially.

What I'm trying to get at is that while every list wants to go first, the ability to go second and still play to the lists strengths is what determines the lists' viability and resilience in a competitive setting. List resilience for me, means the ability to fight against all manners of the meta either as first or second player. If your list cannot do this, then that means that chances it will be hard-countered or it falls flat on its face for losing the bid increases dramatically. Personally, those lists are the ones I find really weak.

So what determines a lists resilience?

1. Matchups - How does it perform vs. XYZ, flavor of the month builds.

2. What does it aim to out-speed? - This is bid-related, but more specifically, a very specific build in mind.

3. How does it perform as second player? - Does your list play the missions well? Do you have any ships that have to go first?

I'll use the list that I built with my Home One, MKII and TRC90 build as an example here.

1. Matchups - I believe it does well against most matchups, it's weaker vs. squadron-heavy, stronger vs. heavy-ship builds. I can break this apart much further, but I will save that for another article when I have time.

2. What does it aim to out-speed? - In my meta, it was aiming to outspeed 385 build Demo builds specifically. This is like competitive Pokemon. I use this reference a lot because I played the hell out of that game. It doesn't matter if your Pokemon outspeeds 99% of the Pokemon out there, it only needs to outspeed that ONE Pokemon you would rather not see across the table. In this case, it was 385 Demo builds.

3. How does it perform as second player? - I really like playing the missions with my list. While the MC80 likes to go first, it's also durable enough to influence the game if it does not go first.

Long story short: The order of whether or not you want first player, is a lot more complicated than "yes, I want first player". It's the above and then some that you need to be thinking about when designing a list. Not everything is black and white, and it's one of the reasons why this question in particular gets brought up time and time again.

I don't really agree with that. With the new tools such as slicer tools and tractor beams on cheap platforms you can now be second and still deny Demo centric builds.

Actually, WWPDSteven had a game last night where his 80C went second against a Demo Swarm with squadrons and he won that one reliable. He was out activated as well.

You got to run it in reverse though. How much worse do you think it would have been for Demo if he wasn't first player? At least in regards to this thread, that's the point and probably a good indication why you'll continue to see high bids.

Demo is almost too good not to run + Demo needs first player to really sing + You can guarantee 1st player by taking an outrageous bid = bid stay mondo big

Demo does not need First Player to sing. As shown at GenCon when the winner was a 2 ship list that did not take first and had Demo.

The construct of Demolisher requiring first to sing is just that. A construct that was created and people try to stick to.

I did not think I could win a game with my High Activation. high bid list as second yet it was done. Don't limit yourself just because that was how it has been.

The GenCon winner took second because if you look at the matchup he's facing, having 1 ship activation advantage in a TWO ship list matchup is a much greater advantage than just going first. Being the reactive player in that matchup with his specific list also means he can greater advantage of his admiral being Ozzel to make better and more educated movement. The list at GenCon had a ISD-II to swing out and absorb damage, and a Rhymerball to distribute and deal damage over time, which is also different than a traditional discussion of Demo or not Demo.

Once again, it comes down to the list design and what the list actually aims to do, and not just "I want first", which is my entire point.

It does not. That was proven in our match. Yes it is "important" but not a requirement. A player can make up for not having first/second.

And what was proven in the match? That you had an activation advantage, more blockers and you're able to telegraph fewer ship movement more? How is that NOT list-related?

Demo does not need First Player to sing. As shown at GenCon when the winner was a 2 ship list that did not take first and had Demo.

The construct of Demolisher requiring first to sing is just that. A construct that was created and people try to stick to.

I did not think I could win a game with my High Activation. high bid list as second yet it was done. Don't limit yourself just because that was how it has been.

This is disingenuous. A two ship Fireball with Demolisher deals damage and approaches any given matchip entirely differently from a high bidding for first, activation, I want to tripple tap you, DeMSU list. A DeMSU abouslety wants first to sing. It wouldn't be bold or wrong to say it is even required.

Demo is perfectlly fine as second player but certain lists want it to go first. There is no tripple tap without first.

Edited by Trizzo2

I don't know if it was mentioned....i drifted off during the flaming...but with the new tournament point structure with a 2nd player fleet sitting and doing nothing and getting the win, and you losing if you are first player (and getting one less point) might not matter too much in the long run but during cuts where the points don't matter, only who wins, then it will.

Side note: I was a high activation/high bid player since wave 1 and it takes a lot of practice to get the "auto win" that people call it. Mistakes cripple you..and now vs a control list those mistakes are more likely to be forced on you.

So will bidding be a factor ...of course (still list dependent). I personally still like to have the decision of my fate in my hands regardless of the type of list that I run.

As for this who is going first, I think this kind of conversation is really list dependent. In your case, having first player is great. But you also had 6 activations I think? This is a huge advantage. Look at autonomous builds like the Fireball for example, or even Rieekan Carriers. These builds do not really care about having first player for the most part, and they only care about out-racing other carrier builds potentially.

What I'm trying to get at is that while every list wants to go first, the ability to go second and still play to the lists strengths is what determines the lists' viability and resilience in a competitive setting. List resilience for me, means the ability to fight against all manners of the meta either as first or second player. If your list cannot do this, then that means that chances it will be hard-countered or it falls flat on its face for losing the bid increases dramatically. Personally, those lists are the ones I find really weak.

So what determines a lists resilience?

1. Matchups - How does it perform vs. XYZ, flavor of the month builds.

2. What does it aim to out-speed? - This is bid-related, but more specifically, a very specific build in mind.

3. How does it perform as second player? - Does your list play the missions well? Do you have any ships that have to go first?

I'll use the list that I built with my Home One, MKII and TRC90 build as an example here.

1. Matchups - I believe it does well against most matchups, it's weaker vs. squadron-heavy, stronger vs. heavy-ship builds. I can break this apart much further, but I will save that for another article when I have time.

2. What does it aim to out-speed? - In my meta, it was aiming to outspeed 385 build Demo builds specifically. This is like competitive Pokemon. I use this reference a lot because I played the hell out of that game. It doesn't matter if your Pokemon outspeeds 99% of the Pokemon out there, it only needs to outspeed that ONE Pokemon you would rather not see across the table. In this case, it was 385 Demo builds.

3. How does it perform as second player? - I really like playing the missions with my list. While the MC80 likes to go first, it's also durable enough to influence the game if it does not go first.

Long story short: The order of whether or not you want first player, is a lot more complicated than "yes, I want first player". It's the above and then some that you need to be thinking about when designing a list. Not everything is black and white, and it's one of the reasons why this question in particular gets brought up time and time again.

I don't really agree with that. With the new tools such as slicer tools and tractor beams on cheap platforms you can now be second and still deny Demo centric builds.

Actually, WWPDSteven had a game last night where his 80C went second against a Demo Swarm with squadrons and he won that one reliable. He was out activated as well.

You got to run it in reverse though. How much worse do you think it would have been for Demo if he wasn't first player? At least in regards to this thread, that's the point and probably a good indication why you'll continue to see high bids.

Demo is almost too good not to run + Demo needs first player to really sing + You can guarantee 1st player by taking an outrageous bid = bid stay mondo big

Demo does not need First Player to sing. As shown at GenCon when the winner was a 2 ship list that did not take first and had Demo.

The construct of Demolisher requiring first to sing is just that. A construct that was created and people try to stick to.

I did not think I could win a game with my High Activation. high bid list as second yet it was done. Don't limit yourself just because that was how it has been.

The GenCon winner took second because if you look at the matchup he's facing, having 1 ship activation advantage in a TWO ship list matchup is a much greater advantage than just going first. Being the reactive player in that matchup with his specific list also means he can greater advantage of his admiral being Ozzel to make better and more educated movement. The list at GenCon had a ISD-II to swing out and absorb damage, and a Rhymerball to distribute and deal damage over time, which is also different than a traditional discussion of Demo or not Demo.

Once again, it comes down to the list design and what the list actually aims to do, and not just "I want first", which is my entire point.

It does not. That was proven in our match. Yes it is "important" but not a requirement. A player can make up for not having first/second.

And what was proven in the match? That you had an activation advantage, more blockers and you're able to telegraph fewer ship movement more? How is that NOT list-related?

Maybe due to the fact that my list was designed for First player not second.

Demo does not need First Player to sing. As shown at GenCon when the winner was a 2 ship list that did not take first and had Demo.

The construct of Demolisher requiring first to sing is just that. A construct that was created and people try to stick to.

I did not think I could win a game with my High Activation. high bid list as second yet it was done. Don't limit yourself just because that was how it has been.

This is disingenuous. A two ship Fireball with Demolisher deals damage and approaches any given matchip entirely differently from an high bidding for first, activation, i want to tripple tap you, DeMSU list. A DeMSU abouslety wants first to sing. It wouldn't be bold or wrong to say it is even required.

At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Ly said that he had activation advantage because he is a good player. That's how far flown my examples have been over his head.

I'm going to gg out of this thread before I lose my shh again.

Demo does not need First Player to sing. As shown at GenCon when the winner was a 2 ship list that did not take first and had Demo.

The construct of Demolisher requiring first to sing is just that. A construct that was created and people try to stick to.

I did not think I could win a game with my High Activation. high bid list as second yet it was done. Don't limit yourself just because that was how it has been.

This is disingenuous. A two ship Fireball with Demolisher deals damage and approaches any given matchip entirely differently from an high bidding for first, activation, i want to tripple tap you, DeMSU list. A DeMSU abouslety wants first to sing. It wouldn't be bold or wrong to say it is even required.

Sure it does but the original statement was what? That Demolisher wanted first/needed first player.

Let's be careful when analyzing win data sets ! If 55% of the winners were first players, it does not mean that going first yields a higher probability to win, because it's definitely not the only factor.

Winning by going second is definitely possible, but it has different constraints than going first :

1) Second player is at a disadvantage when it comes to the kill, because he/she shoots second, which means it can lose a ship before even firing.

2) Second player has an advantage in that he/she can score points more easily than their opponent.

Some fleet builds are still more efficient in the first slot, especially when the heavy hitters rely on black dice. It's possible to play these fleets second, but the risk that the opponent goes out of the black range before you shoot the heavy punchers is there.

Edited by MoffZen

The winning list of Gencon 2015 (aka the Gencon special) flew Demo in that eras version of DEMSU and went second quite a bit, often on purpose.

Furthermore, the Clonisher is NOT a one horse list. It was designed and flown such that the Raiders were significant threats on their own and the list DOESN'T fall apart with the loss of Demo. Other DEMSU lists obviously vary in that regard.

With the advent of Flotillas, the last/first aspect of Demolisher lists does take a hit. It's quite possible to have a carrier fleet with more activations and makes better use of those activations than a Demo list that dilutes it's supporting cast with Gozantis. It was critical that the GR-75 was cheaper than the Gozanti precisely for this reason. While that helps the MC30 lists, they're not quite the plague Demo is.

I've never been a fan of high bids. Much rather build a list that doesn't have the potential to waste a bunch of points vs a higher bid then leave me in my nonfavored position as well. I also don't like bid SO much that my opponents end up with extra squadrons (and now whole ships). Anyone playing the full 400 will have a plan for the Demo lists. So far people have fought through those plans. With more options to counter Demo and therefor more counter-counters the Demo player has to learn/plan for, the worse it gets.

Don't fight the last war. Prepare for the next war. High initiatives are done.

Let's be careful when analyzing win data sets ! If 55% of the winners were first players, it does not mean that going first yields a higher probability to win, because it's definitely not the only factor.

Winning by going second is definitely possible, but it has different constraints than going first :

1) Second player is at a disadvantage when it comes to the kill, because he/she shoots second, which means it can lose a ship before even firing.

2) Second player has an advantage in that he/she can score points more easily than their opponent.

Some fleet builds are still more efficient in the first slot, especially when the heavy hitters rely on black dice. It's possible to play these fleets second, but the risk that the opponent goes out of the black range before you shoot the heavy punchers is there.

Second player can mitigate #1 things with proper speed control (watch and plan your moves so that you have your opponent coming into range first, it is possible) and panning. It is done quite often in my area where Second wins as much as first. However, this is dependent on the player in the end.

The winning list of Gencon 2015 (aka the Gencon special) flew Demo in that eras version of DEMSU and went second quite a bit, often on purpose.

Furthermore, the Clonisher is NOT a one horse list. It was designed and flown such that the Raiders were significant threats on their own and the list DOESN'T fall apart with the loss of Demo. Other DEMSU lists obviously vary in that regard.

With the advent of Flotillas, the last/first aspect of Demolisher lists does take a hit. It's quite possible to have a carrier fleet with more activations and makes better use of those activations than a Demo list that dilutes it's supporting cast with Gozantis. It was critical that the GR-75 was cheaper than the Gozanti precisely for this reason. While that helps the MC30 lists, they're not quite the plague Demo is.

I've never been a fan of high bids. Much rather build a list that doesn't have the potential to waste a bunch of points vs a higher bid then leave me in my nonfavored position as well. I also don't like bid SO much that my opponents end up with extra squadrons (and now whole ships). Anyone playing the full 400 will have a plan for the Demo lists. So far people have fought through those plans. With more options to counter Demo and therefor more counter-counters the Demo player has to learn/plan for, the worse it gets.

Don't fight the last war. Prepare for the next war. High initiatives are done.

Maybe 45 point initiatives are done but I dont think 20 point ones are.

If I have the 20 points left over I'd rather field the extra upgrades or squadrons. 10 points would be my max and since I know others are willing to spend more, I'll happily go 5 instead if I have a preference. If I have a NEED, then I consider that a design flaw.

If I have the 20 points left over I'd rather field the extra upgrades or squadrons. 10 points would be my max and since I know others are willing to spend more, I'll happily go 5 instead if I have a preference. If I have a NEED, then I consider that a design flaw.

How is that a design flaw? Every player has different considerations on what a need is.

If I have the 20 points left over I'd rather field the extra upgrades or squadrons. 10 points would be my max and since I know others are willing to spend more, I'll happily go 5 instead if I have a preference. If I have a NEED, then I consider that a design flaw.

How is that a design flaw? Every player has different considerations on what a need is.

He's referring to a design flaw in his list.

Which, as you say, is completely subject to his considerations :D

Demo does not need First Player to sing. As shown at GenCon when the winner was a 2 ship list that did not take first and had Demo.

The construct of Demolisher requiring first to sing is just that. A construct that was created and people try to stick to.

I did not think I could win a game with my High Activation. high bid list as second yet it was done. Don't limit yourself just because that was how it has been.

This is disingenuous. A two ship Fireball with Demolisher deals damage and approaches any given matchip entirely differently from an high bidding for first, activation, i want to tripple tap you, DeMSU list. A DeMSU abouslety wants first to sing. It wouldn't be bold or wrong to say it is even required.

Sure it does but the original statement was what? That Demolisher wanted first/needed first player.

The original statement was actually just offering an example of why (IMO way more than likely) bids are going to stay relatively high. Not necessarily about 1st vs 2nd player strengths...

Don't get me wrong I can see a fair few MSUs and I think the Generic Imp Swarm has to be PT109s first player fleet from memory.

Small correction: I wouldn't characterize my regional fleet as first player fleet, as it has only 2 point bid and is expected to go second most of the time.

If I have the 20 points left over I'd rather field the extra upgrades or squadrons. 10 points would be my max and since I know others are willing to spend more, I'll happily go 5 instead if I have a preference. If I have a NEED, then I consider that a design flaw.

How is that a design flaw? Every player has different considerations on what a need is.

Assuming tournament play, I'm betting my entire tournament standing on someone not overbidding me. Sure it may not be an autoloss if I don't win bid, but then why am I bidding high?

I bid X points based on my first player game being Y% better than my second player game. Z% of the time I'll face an opponent with a higher bid. At some point the bid outpaces the Y% but doesn't necessarily mean I won't find Z% hitting me in a tournament. If Y isn't large what am I doing with a big X? This doesn't mean you won't see these lists place well in a tournament. If they are there in sufficient numbers (or someone just gets lucky on match ups) then someone WILL get lucky on match ups and place well. But it will be someone, not necessarily me. I want it to be me and am generally not willing to gamble this way.

HOWEVER, if I think my skill level is lower than the best (or limited time to practice) going with a high variance list, bidding large, then hoping I come up with the right match ups might be better than a more conservative list. But now we're drifting into game theory.

I played the bidding game during Wave 2 tournaments with 30s and 90s. After that, when Shmitty's data came in, I noticed that a ton of big winners from regionals didn't have much of a bid, maybe 2 points. I then began thinking about what makes second player work, and for me it is making sure your fleet has 3 pretty great objectives, have enough red dice that you can blast stuff limping away, and have enough squadrons to either tie up enemy squadrons or last long enough to be a shield. I am building all my lists, going forward, with this in mind and it has been rather eye opening, and its kinda nice to take the initiative pressure off and make someone else decide that.

Don't get me wrong I can see a fair few MSUs and I think the Generic Imp Swarm has to be PT109s first player fleet from memory.

Small correction: I wouldn't characterize my regional fleet as first player fleet, as it has only 2 point bid and is expected to go second most of the time.

Can confirm, he wrecked lots of face going second. Not my face, because I had the good/bad fortune not to have to play him. (Good because I probably did better that way, bad because I enjoyed talking to him and imagine the game would have been fun). But lots of faces. Faces that knew a thing or two about how to Armada.

But lots of faces. Faces that knew a thing or two about how to Armada.

That's a T-Shirt right there. Tyrion with the words "I drink and I know Armada"