Trend Analysis of Fantasy Flights Star Wars Miniature lines (Facts and opinions ahead)

By Lyraeus, in Star Wars: Armada

@AllWings:

Do you have something to back up your assertion that Brick and Mortar buyers are rare?

Or that people buy the majority online where its cheap? (Where, at least for quite a few outside of the US, it isn't.)

I don't have any empirical numbers or anything, and I'm speaking exclusively about the US Market where online stores like CSI and MM have historically sold at 50-66% of MSRP and offer free and immediate shipping.

For the past ten years two of my best friends have owned their own game stores and seem to have a decent sense of the industry. This is a view that they seem to believe: most US Armada/X-Wing sales are from online stores rather than brick-n-mortar shops.

It was also part of the announcement when FFG and Asmodee merged. If I recall, as part of the announcement FFG explicitly stated that they would be working to help prevent online retailers from so severely undercutting local stores, since FFG sees those local stores as providing for a lot of unrewarded but essential services for the community: playing space, tournament hosting, player meet-up, etc. The overwhelming outcry on these forums was players worrying about how much more they'd have to expect to pay on their CoolStuff and MM orders. Both their motivation and the forum outcry seems to suggest to me that a substantial amount of product is purchased directly online.

Also, anecdotally, most players I know buy the majority of their collections online to save money while only purchasing a few, if any, ships at a local store.

The only real way to get an answer would be to have an order manifest from the US distributors to see how many go to small local shops and how many go to online mega retailers..

@AllWings:

Do you have something to back up your assertion that Brick and Mortar buyers are rare?

Or that people buy the majority online where its cheap? (Where, at least for quite a few outside of the US, it isn't.)

I don't have any empirical numbers or anything, and I'm speaking exclusively about the US Market where online stores like CSI and MM have historically sold at 50-66% of MSRP and offer free and immediate shipping.

For the past ten years two of my best friends have owned their own game stores and seem to have a decent sense of the industry. This is a view that they seem to believe: most US Armada/X-Wing sales are from online stores rather than brick-n-mortar shops.

It was also part of the announcement when FFG and Asmodee merged. If I recall, as part of the announcement FFG explicitly stated that they would be working to help prevent online retailers from so severely undercutting local stores, since FFG sees those local stores as providing for a lot of unrewarded but essential services for the community: playing space, tournament hosting, player meet-up, etc. The overwhelming outcry on these forums was players worrying about how much more they'd have to expect to pay on their CoolStuff and MM orders. Both their motivation and the forum outcry seems to suggest to me that a substantial amount of product is purchased directly online.

Also, anecdotally, most players I know buy the majority of their collections online to save money while only purchasing a few, if any, ships at a local store.

The only real way to get an answer would be to have an order manifest from the US distributors to see how many go to small local shops and how many go to online mega retailers..

Thank you for the Clarification on that regard. Of course, as we know, said empirical sales data is protected information of the companies and distributors involved, unless they choose to release it.

Anecdotally, outside of the US, here in Canada... We don't get the sweet MM/CSI deals. Shipping is never free, and once you hit a certain amount, well, Customs'll get you too - so despite the fact that I pay 1.36x US Retail at my Local Store... Oftentimes, its cheaper to still get it at that price at the local store.

In the long run going forward, of course, those deep discounts are supposed to be removed from the playing field - so even if there is a trend for the online purchase, those may disappear as we go along.

I don't understand how we are still talking about this

Dont be such an Armchair Admiral Dras!

Would Armchair Ackbar not be a better term?

Dont be such an Armchair Admiral Dras!

Would Armchair Ackbar not be a better term?

HomeOne_command_deck.jpg

Its a pretty Swanky Chair that he has, after all... Swooshin' him all over the place.

Draws if you're ever in Spokane hit me up.

Dont be such an Armchair Admiral Dras!

Would Armchair Ackbar not be a better term?

HomeOne_command_deck.jpg

Its a pretty Swanky Chair that he has, after all... Swooshin' him all over the place.

I was expecting him to have sparkly bell-bottoms:

3956d921d32de01c1f259db52f7e92d2.jpg

Draws if you're ever in Spokane hit me up.

Unfortunately, the Department of Homeland Security has his number, and will give him a one-way ticket to Guantanámo if he shows up on the border.

Anyway, what was this thread about?

Considering that X-Wing regionals in 2013 wasn't that big either, I think we are doing fine for year 1.

There were not X-Wing "Regionals" in 2013. While it's true there were Regionals hosted in 2013, they were not nearly as official or prestigous and pretty much every store hosted one. They would be akin to the "Store Championships" of today, which didn't start until 2014, when the "proper" FFG Regionals started, with geographically divided regions and application-based Regional site determination.

While it's true that this is only Armada's first year and X-Wing's fourth, it would be much more appropriate to compare X-Wing's 2013 "Regionals" to Armada's 2016 Store Championships. I attended three "Regionals" for X-Wing in 2013 and they averaged about 20 players. I attended three Armada Store Championships this year and they averaged about 10 players.

Which means the equate.

Armada takes up twice the space and costs far more per player than X-Wing. So if Armada is averaging 10 players per store championship that is roughly equivalent to 20 X-Wing players.

Think about it in a space sense of the store.

If a store can hold an event but can only cater to 20 X-Wing players how many Armada players can that store host? Obviously just 10. So that means that 10 players on Armada is going to take up twice as much space and cost far more making the ratio sound.

That's true, but it also means the store hosting the event makes only half the money they do when they host an X-Wing event. If a store charges $5 entry and gets twenty players for an X-Wing Season Kit and only ten for an Armada kit, the store makes twice as much when it hosts X-Wing. Which partially explains why so many stores host every kit they can for X-Wing, but comparatively few run Armada season kits (at least in the US).

The fact that Armada players spend "twice as much" on their collections than X-Wing players is not really applicable. Most people buy their ships online (CoolStuff, MiniMarket, etc.) so when they roll into a store for an event the store hasn't yet made a dime from them. Even those rare players who do purchase product at a Brick N Mortar only buy from their FLGS but might travel to a few stores, some even a ways away, when playing in events.

It helps that my FLGS serves alcohol.

@AllWings:

Do you have something to back up your assertion that Brick and Mortar buyers are rare?

Or that people buy the majority online where its cheap? (Where, at least for quite a few outside of the US, it isn't.)

I don't have any empirical numbers or anything, and I'm speaking exclusively about the US Market where online stores like CSI and MM have historically sold at 50-66% of MSRP and offer free and immediate shipping.

For the past ten years two of my best friends have owned their own game stores and seem to have a decent sense of the industry. This is a view that they seem to believe: most US Armada/X-Wing sales are from online stores rather than brick-n-mortar shops.

It was also part of the announcement when FFG and Asmodee merged. If I recall, as part of the announcement FFG explicitly stated that they would be working to help prevent online retailers from so severely undercutting local stores, since FFG sees those local stores as providing for a lot of unrewarded but essential services for the community: playing space, tournament hosting, player meet-up, etc. The overwhelming outcry on these forums was players worrying about how much more they'd have to expect to pay on their CoolStuff and MM orders. Both their motivation and the forum outcry seems to suggest to me that a substantial amount of product is purchased directly online.

Also, anecdotally, most players I know buy the majority of their collections online to save money while only purchasing a few, if any, ships at a local store.

The only real way to get an answer would be to have an order manifest from the US distributors to see how many go to small local shops and how many go to online mega retailers..

I'm not sure that the volume of the outcry is necessarily reflective of how widepread it is. Sure, there are many people who buy online, but I wouldn't say that they necessarily constitute such a majority that the B&M customers are rare.

In my experience, players who frequent FLGSs do reward their FLGSs by shopping there. Many even find it offensive that some other people don't, so there's a community norm. We've had tons of flamewars on the forums about this subject. Much of it will depend on the quality of the FLGSs, the level of disposable income, and the community-mindedness of the locale.

Sorry HERO, I am getting reports of "regionals" and Imdaar Alpha events for smaller or equal to what Armada had with Sullust and it's regionals/store championships.

New games have a period where they slowly accumulate players and such. There is a lot of up and downs. It is sort of like a new business in that. It struggles for the first few years and when it stabilizes, we will see a point where it grows or becomes stagnant. We are not yet at the stabilizing stage though. That takes usually 2 years or so.

Let's not have that store vs online argument here. There is an old thread from last year where we had it and the community is split as always on that topic. It is fine to be split, everyone has their opinions. I know many from my area who are store supporters for Armada and I know a few who like a deal. It's fine so leave it be.

AllWingsStandyingBy, remember that the stats for the top 3 selling games that came out earlier this year does not include online sales. So in North America, Armada made top 3 in less than a year without including online sales.

Sorry HERO, I am getting reports of "regionals" and Imdaar Alpha events for smaller or equal to what Armada had with Sullust and it's regionals/store championships.

New games have a period where they slowly accumulate players and such. There is a lot of up and downs. It is sort of like a new business in that. It struggles for the first few years and when it stabilizes, we will see a point where it grows or becomes stagnant. We are not yet at the stabilizing stage though. That takes usually 2 years or so.

I don't see any apologies needed for this kind of news man.

However, we can also count on FFG learning from X-Wings growing pains and making the arrival of Armada much smoother, especially when it came to events like Sullust and what not. What do the numbers look like for your sources in early X-Wing?

We should keep close eyes on what happens in the next year especially. That's when the game either thrives or turns stagnant right? SET S-FOILS TO HYPE POSITION AND BRING ON WAVE 5!!!!

Are you holding the locations constant? Pacific Northwest Regionals for X-Wing 2013 vs. Armada 2016 is probably not comparable. (Spokane vs. Tacoma.)

Edited by Mikael Hasselstein

Are you holding the locations constant? Pacific Northwest Regionals for X-Wing 2013 vs. Armada 2016 is probably not comparable. (Spokane vs. Tacoma.)

Sorry HERO, I am getting reports of "regionals" and Imdaar Alpha events for smaller or equal to what Armada had with Sullust and it's regionals/store championships.

New games have a period where they slowly accumulate players and such. There is a lot of up and downs. It is sort of like a new business in that. It struggles for the first few years and when it stabilizes, we will see a point where it grows or becomes stagnant. We are not yet at the stabilizing stage though. That takes usually 2 years or so.

I don't see any apologies needed for this kind of news man.

However, we can also count on FFG learning from X-Wings growing pains and making the arrival of Armada much smoother, especially when it came to events like Sullust and what not. What do the numbers look like for your sources in early X-Wing?

We should keep close eyes on what happens in the next year especially. That's when the game either thrives or turns stagnant right? SET S-FOILS TO HYPE POSITION AND BRING ON WAVE 5!!!!

6 to 8 for the 2013 regionals tournaments that were the equivalent to Armada's Store Championships. Armada's Store Championships were about the same actually.

Dont be such an Armchair Admiral Dras!

Would Armchair Ackbar not be a better term?

HomeOne_command_deck.jpg

Its a pretty Swanky Chair that he has, after all... Swooshin' him all over the place.

I was expecting him to have sparkly bell-bottoms:

3956d921d32de01c1f259db52f7e92d2.jpg

Draws if you're ever in Spokane hit me up.

Unfortunately, the Department of Homeland Security has his number, and will give him a one-way ticket to Guantanámo if he shows up on the border.

Trump's northern wall:

castle%20black%20the%20wall%20game%20of%

Dont be such an Armchair Admiral Dras!

Would Armchair Ackbar not be a better term?

HomeOne_command_deck.jpg

Its a pretty Swanky Chair that he has, after all... Swooshin' him all over the place.

I was expecting him to have sparkly bell-bottoms:3956d921d32de01c1f259db52f7e92d2.jpg

Draws if you're ever in Spokane hit me up.

Unfortunately, the Department of Homeland Security has his number, and will give him a one-way ticket to Guantanámo if he shows up on the border.

Trump's northern wall:

castle%20black%20the%20wall%20game%20of%

I know I am one of the best when it comes to going off topic but can we get back to the topic please? Ideas on what other data that could help show the health of Armada or stagnation of Armada would be helpful.

So far I am getting about 4-10 people in tournaments for X-Wing back in 2013 and early 2014. Which to me is equivalent to 2-5 Armada players due to costs and space requirements.

Dont be such an Armchair Admiral Dras!

Would Armchair Ackbar not be a better term?

Its a pretty Swanky Chair that he has, after all... Swooshin' him all over the place.

I was expecting him to have sparkly bell-bottoms:

Draws if you're ever in Spokane hit me up.

Unfortunately, the Department of Homeland Security has his number, and will give him a one-way ticket to Guantanámo if he shows up on the border.

Trump's northern wall:

I know I am one of the best when it comes to going off topic but can we get back to the topic please? Ideas on what other data that could help show the health of Armada or stagnation of Armada would be helpful.

So far I am getting about 4-10 people in tournaments for X-Wing back in 2013 and early 2014. Which to me is equivalent to 2-5 Armada players due to costs and space requirements.

Are these Ly's numbers?

Speaking of which, was this information discerned from that X-Wing thread Ly?

Dont be such an Armchair Admiral Dras!

Would Armchair Ackbar not be a better term?

Its a pretty Swanky Chair that he has, after all... Swooshin' him all over the place.

I was expecting him to have sparkly bell-bottoms:

Draws if you're ever in Spokane hit me up.

Unfortunately, the Department of Homeland Security has his number, and will give him a one-way ticket to Guantanámo if he shows up on the border.

Trump's northern wall:

I know I am one of the best when it comes to going off topic but can we get back to the topic please? Ideas on what other data that could help show the health of Armada or stagnation of Armada would be helpful.

So far I am getting about 4-10 people in tournaments for X-Wing back in 2013 and early 2014. Which to me is equivalent to 2-5 Armada players due to costs and space requirements.

Are these Ly's numbers?

Speaking of which, was this information discerned from that X-Wing thread Ly?

These are the averages I am getting from the thread. Go take a look yourself. 2014 regionals saw a markup of players but they are the equivalent to our regionals this year due to the 2 to 1 ratio

Sorry, I got a little lost there. What is the 2:1 ratio in relation to?

Also, is this regionals data or Store Championships? I briefly skimmed your thread and the most useful link I think from there is from this:
https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/100813-store-championship-results/

This paints a clearer picture of # of players at Store Tournaments around the country in 2014. Do we have anything from this year for Store Tournaments?

Found this gem:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kzhMdknnBaLRKnPQoHjmPHlTJku2lrYkykmr_JKC7Po/edit#gid=0

Average is 12.97, so 13 out of a 118 sample size for Store Tournaments in 2014.

A quick search through our forums for all topics related to "store tournament", from Jan 1-current 2016, shows up with less than 2 pages of possibly relevant threads.

In other words, we need to start tracking our shh, because look at amount of effort X-Wing players have put forth in 2014 to track the health of the game across the country. The same size was 118 for them.. we might have less than 10 according to this most recent search.

Edited by HERO

Sorry, I got a little lost there. What is the 2:1 ratio in relation to?

Also, is this regionals data or Store Championships? I briefly skimmed your thread and the most useful link I think from there is from this:

https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/100813-store-championship-results/

This paints a clearer picture of # of players at Store Tournaments around the country in 2014. Do we have anything from this year for Store Tournaments?

I have to ask if you are really paying attention to what people say in this thread HERO.. . because I have gone over my 2 X-Wing players equal 1 Armada player theory a lot here.

As for relations to the other thread, on the 2014 regionals, they averaged about 30 odd players (some had 60 some had far less) that means with our averages of about what, 15 players this year for regionals, that we equaled X-Wing's first true regionals.

In store championships, I am seeing a trend of about 10 players tops in 2013 (what they call their first regionals seems to have been what became Store Championships so I classify it as such) which means that our store championships which had an average of 6-8 players actually beats X-Wing due to the ratio.

The ratio is actually vital to figuring out if Armada is doing OK in relations to X-Wing. This is due to the practicalities of space, time and expenses.

Sorry, I got a little lost there. What is the 2:1 ratio in relation to?

Also, is this regionals data or Store Championships? I briefly skimmed your thread and the most useful link I think from there is from this:

https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/100813-store-championship-results/

This paints a clearer picture of # of players at Store Tournaments around the country in 2014. Do we have anything from this year for Store Tournaments?

I have to ask if you are really paying attention to what people say in this thread HERO.. . because I have gone over my 2 X-Wing players equal 1 Armada player theory a lot here.

As for relations to the other thread, on the 2014 regionals, they averaged about 30 odd players (some had 60 some had far less) that means with our averages of about what, 15 players this year for regionals, that we equaled X-Wing's first true regionals.

In store championships, I am seeing a trend of about 10 players tops in 2013 (what they call their first regionals seems to have been what became Store Championships so I classify it as such) which means that our store championships which had an average of 6-8 players actually beats X-Wing due to the ratio.

The ratio is actually vital to figuring out if Armada is doing OK in relations to X-Wing. This is due to the practicalities of space, time and expenses.

Dude, you can't just throw out 2:1 ratio out of the MANY different ratios being discussed in this thread and think I can follow what you're trying to say. Be more clear and precise in the future. You could be talking about MY 2:1 ratio as well, for $$$ per player at Regionals X-Wing vs. Armada in 2016. Do you see the difference?

Where do you see the averages for Regionals in that thread? Do you have a table or sample size? The only data I looked at was out of a sample size of 118 for Store Champs. A quick search in our forums indicate that don't really have anything similar to compare to in terms of sample size (which is a bad thing in its own right).

Also, I completely disagree with your numbers for 2013 in terms of Store Championships for X-Wing. I linked the google doc, the top was actually 36 and the bottom was 3. The average was 13.

I still can't believe you're applying a 2x modifier to Armada players saying that we're worth 2 of every X-Wing player. Why, because we take up more table size? I don't know about you guys, but for all the X-Wing events I went to thus far, has been in areas where they can accommodate all those players, including moving tables outside. It's not like they're turning players away. That's one of the reasons why I started to get out of X-Wing, because I couldn't be bothered playing until 2 AM just to finish a Store tournament. Someone else also mentioned in this thread that the Stores are actually making more money per X-Wing player for these events because of entry fees. I really can't get behind the way you're representing these numbers.

Edited by HERO

Sorry, I got a little lost there. What is the 2:1 ratio in relation to?

Also, is this regionals data or Store Championships? I briefly skimmed your thread and the most useful link I think from there is from this:https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/100813-store-championship-results/

This paints a clearer picture of # of players at Store Tournaments around the country in 2014. Do we have anything from this year for Store Tournaments?

I have to ask if you are really paying attention to what people say in this thread HERO.. . because I have gone over my 2 X-Wing players equal 1 Armada player theory a lot here.

As for relations to the other thread, on the 2014 regionals, they averaged about 30 odd players (some had 60 some had far less) that means with our averages of about what, 15 players this year for regionals, that we equaled X-Wing's first true regionals.

In store championships, I am seeing a trend of about 10 players tops in 2013 (what they call their first regionals seems to have been what became Store Championships so I classify it as such) which means that our store championships which had an average of 6-8 players actually beats X-Wing due to the ratio.

The ratio is actually vital to figuring out if Armada is doing OK in relations to X-Wing. This is due to the practicalities of space, time and expenses.

Dude, you can't just throw out 2:1 ratio out of the MANY different ratios being discussed in this thread and think I can follow what you're trying to say. Be more clear and precise in the future. You could be talking about MY 2:1 ratio as well, for $$$ per player at Regionals X-Wing vs. Armada in 2016. Do you see the difference?

Where do you see the averages for Regionals in that thread? Do you have a table or sample size? The only data I looked at was out of a sample size of 118 for Store Champs. A quick search in our forums indicate that don't really have anything similar to compare to in terms of sample size (which is a bad thing in its own right).

Also, I completely disagree with your numbers for 2013 in terms of Store Championships for X-Wing. I linked the google doc, the top was actually 36 and the bottom was 3. The average was 13.

I still can't believe you're applying a 2x modifier to Armada players saying that we're worth 2 of every X-Wing player. Why, because we take up more table size? I don't know about you guys, but for all the X-Wing events I went to thus far, has been in areas where they can accommodate all those players, including moving tables outside. It's not like they're turning players away. That's one of the reasons why I started to get out of X-Wing, because I couldn't be bothered playing until 2 AM just to finish a Store tournament. Someone else also mentioned in this thread that the Stores are actually making more money per X-Wing player for these events because of entry fees. I really can't get behind the way you're representing these numbers.

Sure all major and big events will cater to a hall or some major space to use, but not all stores are crested equal. Yesterday I was at a tournament that could have no more than 14 people if that. My main FLGS maxes out at maybe 12 players (year old store, great people) and only Guardian Games, a 10,000 square foot game store can do 20 to 30 tables.

Take that into consideration. Spaces can only have so many players. Space IS a huge issue. If you can only provide room for 10 tables and get 12 tables worth of players what happen to those extras? They can't play so of you want to discount it, go right ahead but space allowance IS a well known issues for game stores.

I don't use any of your ratios HERO. The only one I use is my 2:1 hypotheses because I feel is it valid due to the constraints of stores and how many people can play. This is a big factor to stores and thus be a consideration when you wish to equate tournament attendance.

If a regionals can have 120 X-Wing players it can only have 60 Armada players. That is a huge difference in statistics if you compare the two side by side, but if you add in for the play area requirements you see that it is less of an issue.

What store Championships had 118 players? When was this?

OK, I got it.

Sources:
https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/126226-index-of-useful-links/?hl=regional

https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/105107-2014-regionals-results/

https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/topic/218949-revised-regionals-data

X-Wing 2014 World data:

Tournaments with reports 64
Reported Attendance 1999
Unreported: Oslo, Norway (attendance unknown), Mexico, D.F., Mexico (18), Toruń, Poland (29)
Total attendance: 2046 (+Oslo, Norway)
median 27
mean 31.3
Standard deviation 19.2
Smallest event 6
Largest event 116
Armada 2016, schmitty collection:
29 samples, world
Mean: 18.172
USA cities:
46 Bellevue 38 Monroeville 25 Pearland 40 Centerville 59 Franklin 39 Burlingame 77 Roseville 47 Kissimmee 18 Boise 50 Mesa 27 Broomfield 35 Spokane 72 Plano 34 Cambridge 70 Chicago 61 Duluth

USA average regionals attendance X-Wing 2014: 46

USA average regionals attendance Armada 2016: 19.875

Disclaimer: The rest of the world pulls both down in terms of attendance, with X-Wing #s being seriously affected (46 mean USA, 31.3 world). For Armada: 19.875 USA only, 18.172 world.

I don't know man, I'm not really happy with how this thread is going so far, especially in terms of data collection. I don't know how I can find this data in like 20 minutes of searching and supply links and sources while all I get are general statements and broad understatements from people (especially in that X-Wing thread).

I'm also not very happy with the amount of data collection us Armada players are capable of. We need more MajorJugglers and sozins in the community to step up and help move us all in a better direction IMO. Data is great: It provides us with a clear understanding of the state of the game and helps build a symbiotic relationship with FFG.

Edited by HERO