Trends, Statistics, and Predictions!

By Absol197, in Star Wars: Edge of the Empire RPG

23 minutes ago, Khazadune said:

No I wouldn’t support such a wild claim. I find most people invent stats to suit their needs when they speak informally. I do stand by my belief that the films have resulted in polarization. Although I bet the difference of opinion would be on how much so.

Oh this guy claimed to have done the math based on (get this) subscribers to the official SW Facebook page and the negative comments seen there about the movie. Then, when called out on his claim, demanded strict calculations to prove his fuzzy math wrong. ?

I don’t disagree that there’s some degree of polarization. I think we’re just “hearing” the two extremes the loudest. And, we’re also seeing the toxic elements of the Star Wars fandom dive into the spotlight. Which doesn’t benefit anyone.

2 hours ago, OddballE8 said:

Now, on topic again, have we gotten all the career books for all three lines yet? (counting cyphers and masks, here)

Because if we do, then I could see them ending the line, if it's not making them enough money.

That said, I would be oddly ok with them ending the line if they've done all the career books.
But that's just me. (So much stuff to find online anyway, so I don't need adventures and fluff books, really)

Ps. that said, I would be delighted if they kept making the books. They're all very gorgeous and well done. Just saying I'd be strangely ok with it if they ended it.

Apart from Cyphers and Masks, all of the career splats have been released.

That said, I could see FFG doing at least two era books, one for the Clone Wars and one for the Sequel Era, both of which including new crunch such as universal specs themed for that era as well as stats for various vehicles and NPCs, especially now that they've seemed to let up on the "avoid giving named characters stats" angle as seen in Dawn of Rebellion.

My thought is that we'll know that FFG is looking to either end RPG production or revamp it into a new edition is when we start seeing compilation books of material that's currently scattered amidst all the different source books.

I have seen posts by various freelancers saying they are working on star wars for FFG. That means as of Gamernation Con Freelancers were working on Product for the RPG line. That means that product is a year out. which means there is product in the pipeline we havent seen announced. These freelancers also have been working on product fairly consistently. Also these same freelancers were wonking on stuff at the previous gamernation con. which means it is highly likely there is unannounced product that is likely coming soon.

The gap in product numbers would suggest that we're due for at least some more support late in the system's life. I'm okay if it's infrequent, since we have fairly extensive options already.

I just want more region splats. It's a big galaxy.

Well, even if they don't shut down the line (which I truly hope they don't), I think we can expect a slow-down in products since we have all the career books and the game is getting a bit long in the tooth, so to speak.

It's only natural to slow down the rate of releases then.

1 hour ago, OddballE8 said:

Well, even if they don't shut down the line (which I truly hope they don't), I think we can expect a slow-down in products since we have all the career books and the game is getting a bit long in the tooth, so to speak.

It's only natural to slow down the rate of releases then.

I would like if they put out a few more books of specs. I would like to see three of them, one for each line, containing one new spec for each career in that line (6 specs per book).

15 hours ago, Nytwyng said:

we’re also seeing the toxic elements of the Star Wars fandom dive into the spotlight. Which doesn’t benefit anyone.

This has as much to do with damaging the brand as anything else going on. I don't think I need to remind anyone the damage a small but vocal minority can cause.

I definitely agree something is up over at FFG/Asmodee, but I'm not ready to issue grim portents. There's still blood in this stone.

53 minutes ago, themensch said:

I definitely agree something is up over at FFG/Asmodee, but I'm not ready to issue grim portents. There's still blood in this stone.

I agree, but I'm being optimistic and hoping it's mostly good stuff they're just keeping under wraps. I'm looking forward to GenCon for many reasons.

On the possibility of a second edition, I don't think it's terribly likely. Maybe just for the core books, in order to incorporate errata and tie in more closely to the splatbooks, as well as bring in some Genesys changes. The line is definitely nowhere close to being shut down (he says, knocking on wood) but I could see it slowing down.

Mostly, I just really want the Spy book and more era source books. Region books would be great, too.

I love that people seriously think the Star Wars brand is in danger because of the performance of a movie that made over a billion dollars in theaters and has an A- CinemaScore.

The Last jedi did make a lot of money but it polarised the fans. The dis conted hardcore fans actively boycotted the Solo movie because of the Last Jedi and combined with the disinterest of casual moviegoers the Solo movie lost money. And then there was some nasty PR shenanigans going on at Twitter and Youtube and feelings are still hurting.

1 hour ago, Alisair Longreach said:

The Last jedi did make a lot of money but it polarised the fans.

It polarized some of the fans.

1 hour ago, Alisair Longreach said:

The Last jedi did make a lot of money but it polarised the fans. The dis conted hardcore fans actively boycotted the Solo movie because of the Last Jedi and combined with the disinterest of casual moviegoers the Solo movie lost money.

It’s still in theaters and has passed $380 million on a $300 million budget. While I can agree it didn’t perform to expectations, I’m not sure I can agree that it lost money.

1 hour ago, Alisair Longreach said:

The dis conted hardcore fans actively boycotted the Solo movie because of the Last Jedi and combined with the disinterest of casual moviegoers the Solo movie lost money. And then there was some nasty PR shenanigans going on at Twitter and Youtube and feelings are still hurting.

I think the poor marketing and formidable competition did more to hurt Solo than any boycott.

And I have a hard time believing any of that would have a meaningful knock-on effect when it comes to the tabletop/pen-and-paper Star Wars games.

Solo may have a production cost of 300M$ but there are also marketing costs. Solo may have earned 380M$ at the box office but LucasFilm only gets to keep half of that money so Solo has lost 100+ M$.

4 hours ago, CaptainRaspberry said:

The line is definitely nowhere close to being shut down (he says, knocking on wood) but I could see it slowing down.

While it would suck if the line shut down, I think we have enough information (once the Spy book comes out) that groups could forge ahead on their own. We played WEG for years after the system folded, so no new content isn't necessarily a deal breaker for us.

1 hour ago, Alisair Longreach said:

Solo may have a production cost of 300M$ but there are also marketing costs. Solo may have earned 380M$ at the box office but LucasFilm only gets to keep half of that money so Solo has lost 100+ M$.

Solo:
Production budget: 250 M$ (300M$ estimated by IMDB, but I trust www.the-numbers.com more)
Worldwide Box Office: 384 M$

I'd say that while it might not be the box office hit they'd like, it's not losing money. (and it's still running. So the total box office will likely end up at 400 M$)

You cite the marketing costs, but let's be honest here... one of the reasons it failed was the lack of marketing.

As for your notion that LucasFilm only gets to keep half of that money, I don't know where you get that from... LucasFilm is owned by Disney. Disney and LucasFilm were the major producers on the film. Disney were the major distributers of the film. Who else got those 50% of the income?

Edited by OddballE8
1 hour ago, Alisair Longreach said:

Solo may have a production cost of 300M$ but there are also marketing costs. Solo may have earned 380M$ at the box office but LucasFilm only gets to keep half of that money so Solo has lost 100+ M$.

5 minutes ago, OddballE8 said:

Solo:
Production budget: 250 M$ (300M$ estimated by IMDB, but I trust www.the-numbers.com more)
Worldwide Box Office: 384 M$

I'd say that while it might not be the box office hit they'd like, it's not losing money. (and it's still running. So the total box office will likely end up at 400 M$)

You cite the marketing costs, but let's be honest here... one of the reasons it failed was the lack of marketing.

As for your notion that LucasFilm only gets to keep half of that money, I don't know where you get that from... LucasFilm is owned by Disney. Disney and LucasFilm were the major producers on the film. Disney were the major distributers of the film. Who else got those 50% of the income?

@OddballE8 is correct here. IF you think that the theaters get the other 50%, you're sorely mistaken. I used to work at a theater, and theaters make very little off of ticket sales; nowhere near 50% of the box office take. Almost all of the money a theater takes in comes from Concession sales, not tickets.

2 hours ago, Nytwyng said:

It polarized some of the fans.

It’s still in theaters and has passed $380 million on a $300 million budget. While I can agree it didn’t perform to expectations, I’m not sure I can agree that it lost money.

I wouldn’t marginalize the discontent, the polarization is more than just some people. I know many lifelong fans who have turned their backs on Star Wars because of the latest movies. I don’t think you would think I was being fair to say some fans liked it. Both could be true from a perspective but a more accurate statement would be to say it was polarizing.

The polarization is the single largest contributor imho to Solo’s lacklustre performance for what I thought was a great movie. It’s marketing was robust, there wasn’t a lack of Solo plastered on tv and posters etc. I’m sure the budget for marketing was comparable to Rogue One.

1 hour ago, Khazadune said:

I wouldn’t marginalize the discontent, the polarization is more than just some people. I know many lifelong fans who have turned their backs on Star Wars because of the latest movies. I don’t think you would think I was being fair to say some fans liked it. Both could be true from a perspective but a more accurate statement would be to say it was polarizing.

The polarization is the single largest contributor imho to Solo’s lacklustre performance for what I thought was a great movie. It’s marketing was robust, there wasn’t a lack of Solo plastered on tv and posters etc. I’m sure the budget for marketing was comparable to Rogue One.

Not marginalizing anything. Saying it “polarized the fans” implies that all fans lined up at one extreme or the other. That did not occur.

10 minutes ago, Nytwyng said:

Not marginalizing anything. Saying it “polarized the fans” implies that all fans lined up at one extreme or the other. That did not occur.

On this, we disagree.

2 hours ago, Khazadune said:

On this, we disagree.

That the phrasing implies all fans, or that not all fans lined up on extreme positions regarding the topic?

13 minutes ago, Nytwyng said:

That the phrasing implies all fans, or that not all fans lined up on extreme positions regarding the topic?

On the basic premise of your response. That of speaking in terms of all or nothing. Did everyone ever get entirely polarized over anything? I stated and will reiterate that the films have polarized the fans. All the fans? No, but a significant portion that arguments, discussions and exchanges just like this and much worse, play out every time the new content is discussed. You can agree with the statement or not, but that’s my opinion based upon what I’ve witnessed in every exchange on every medium since TLJ.

Can you guys please take any further discussion either to a private chat or to a different thread? We've drifted a fair distance off topic and I know I'm tired of it. I come here to figure out when the next book is coming out, not to listen to semantics on the definition of polarization or to prove that x% of the fanbase is pro/con/etc.

Thanks

2 hours ago, warchild1x said:

Can you guys please take any further discussion either to a private chat or to a different thread? We've drifted a fair distance off topic and I know I'm tired of it. I come here to figure out when the next book is coming out, not to listen to semantics on the definition of polarization or to prove that x% of the fanbase is pro/con/etc.

Thanks

So... how about that cyphers and masks eh?

Think it's coming soon?

8 hours ago, warchild1x said:

Can you guys please take any further discussion either to a private chat or to a different thread? We've drifted a fair distance off topic and I know I'm tired of it. I come here to figure out when the next book is coming out, not to listen to semantics on the definition of polarization or to prove that x% of the fanbase is pro/con/etc.

Thanks

That’s fair. While I probably should have, I didn’t think “those on the extremes of the discussion should stop speaking for everyone” would, itself, become an argument of extremes.

We now return to our previously scheduled prophecies.

Prophecies are unfortunately on hiatus for a bit :( . My numbers have stopped speaking to me; we wander blindly through the fog of the unknown. I'll endeavor to find a new path to illumination, but I cannot hazard a guess as to when that'll be.

My deepest apologies, my friends. I have failed you :( ...