Trends, Statistics, and Predictions!

By Absol197, in Star Wars: Edge of the Empire RPG

55 minutes ago, Ahrimon said:

but what problems are there with the wargame?

I don't play the wargame myself so I couldn't say; I just know that the 3rd edition of it did not go over well with a lot of fans and the company has apparently been investing a lot into damage control.

* My deepest apologies to Miss Absol for my participation in this derail.

Edited by Vorzakk
3 hours ago, Ahrimon said:

I would have looked at converting it to 5e.

HERESY OF THE HIGHEST DEGREE!

For your despicable Crime against Menoth, I sentence you to: SEVEN MONTHS ON A WRACK!!!

(Sorry for derail, but Iron Kingdom's is my second love behind Star Wars)

We noticed :P . We'd been talking about it a little, in fact!

I enjoyed the D6 game when it was the Star Wars game, but really FFG give us a real preview. :angry:

Don't honestly know why they're even previewing this book as it has no relation to the current system. A mystic article would have been so much more useful.

10 hours ago, Random Bystander said:

But not the right article ?

because they hate us :P

5 hours ago, warchild1x said:

Don't honestly know why they're even previewing this book as it has no relation to the current system. A mystic article would have been so much more useful.

Because they want to build buzz to sell it. Duh.

I just wanted to point out that this week's production update has already occurred, and there was no movement. I wasn't really expecting it; this is only week 5 On the Boat , we have at least one more before we can start fidgeting uncomfortably, but I wanted to assure you all that I'm still doing my job ^_^ !

Edited by Absol197
1 hour ago, Absol197 said:

I just wanted to point out that this week's production update has already occurred, and there was no movement. I wasn't really expecting it; this is only week 5 On the Boat , we have at least one more before we can start fidgeting uncomfortably, but I wanted to assure you all that I'm still doing my job ^_^ !

Endless Vigil :lol:

You know, a thought just occurred to me, which is not a very happy thought, but it makes sense :( .

What with the reprinting debacle for Ghosts and the massive delays that followed, it's entirely possible that the entire budget for the SWRPG is on a razor's edge. Maybe they're waiting so long to announce a new book because they don't want it to be waiting In Development forever, but they just don't have the money right now to print anything new. So, they're waiting until some of the current books get to stores and they've earned some of their money back before they announce.

While many of us might have been assuming this, the facts of that scenario aren't very...happy. Best-case scenario from here, we start getting new books released in three weeks (1 more for boating, 2 Shipping Now ). That puts us at February 15. And if they want to wait a little to see what cash flow they get...we may be waiting until March before we get another new book announcement :( .

I hope this is not the case, but...it's a possibility.

27 minutes ago, Absol197 said:

You know, a thought just occurred to me, which is not a very happy thought, but it makes sense :( .

What with the reprinting debacle for Ghosts and the massive delays that followed, it's entirely possible that the entire budget for the SWRPG is on a razor's edge. Maybe they're waiting so long to announce a new book because they don't want it to be waiting In Development forever, but they just don't have the money right now to print anything new. So, they're waiting until some of the current books get to stores and they've earned some of their money back before they announce.

While many of us might have been assuming this, the facts of that scenario aren't very...happy. Best-case scenario from here, we start getting new books released in three weeks (1 more for boating, 2 Shipping Now ). That puts us at February 15. And if they want to wait a little to see what cash flow they get...we may be waiting until March before we get another new book announcement :( .

I hope this is not the case, but...it's a possibility.

I doubt it, that’s the advantage of the preorder. They have had three books already sold for months. Now, it could be that the money from those three books was only enough to hold them over till now, but then they would just announce another book and print more money with preorders. Chances are it’s just a lull because they have a lot going on at once. Sucks for us, but they have a wealth of resources out there already, so we aren’t bereft.

4 minutes ago, Khazadune said:

I doubt it, that’s the advantage of the preorder. They have had three books already sold for months. Now, it could be that the money from those three books was only enough to hold them over till now, but then they would just announce another book and print more money with preorders. Chances are it’s just a lull because they have a lot going on at once. Sucks for us, but they have a wealth of resources out there already, so we aren’t bereft.

Do you pay for the book when you pre-order? Or when the book arrives and becomes available? I'll admit that I've not pre-ordered anything through FFG before, so I don't know exactly how it works. I've pre-ordered through my FLGS, but they don't charge until the item arrives. I suppose they may be paying the publishing company at the time of the order, but...

If you're right, though, then hurray! That means I'm wrong, and we might still see a new book in the next week or two!

6 minutes ago, Absol197 said:

Do you pay for the book when you pre-order? Or when the book arrives and becomes available? I'll admit that I've not pre-ordered anything through FFG before, so I don't know exactly how it works. I've pre-ordered through my FLGS, but they don't charge until the item arrives. I suppose they may be paying the publishing company at the time of the order, but...

If you're right, though, then hurray! That means I'm wrong, and we might still see a new book in the next week or two!

You know I don’t know. I preordered the three books but I can’t tell you if they actually charged me yet or not....

Pre orders are a near guaranteed sale for some companies. A high number is enough to keep investors happy and writing cheques. Just look at how the computer game industry pushes for them.

Huh. I've never really been into computer games, so I had no idea. I'll hold out hope, then!

2 hours ago, Absol197 said:

Huh. I've never really been into computer games, so I had no idea. I'll hold out hope, then!

I don’t think your supposition is too far out of line though. There probably is a limit on how many new products for a particular line can be in the pipe.

55 minutes ago, robus said:

I don’t think your supposition is too far out of line though. There probably is a limit on how many new products for a particular line can be in the pipe.

If there is, we're not at it at the moment. We've had six upcoming books at a time before. However, that was for a period of three days, then we got three of them released within the next two-ish weeks, so there's that. Hmm... actually, thinking about that, what if I...

Okay! Going back through my stats I found the following:

6 Books upcoming: 3 (avg. 3.00 - 0.16%);

5 Books upcoming: 7, 7, 22, 27 (avg. 15.75 - 3.43%);

4 Books upcoming: 2, 5, 7, 14, 28, 69, 73, 88, 99+ (avg. 42.78+ - 20.96%);

3 Books upcoming: 3, 4, 14, 14, 18, 20, 21, 23, 30, 37, 39, 41, 42, 49, 56, 57, 90 (avg. 32.82 - 30.38%);

2 Books upcoming: 3, 7, 9, 10, 12, 22, 23, 27, 29, 29, 30, 31, 36, 37, 41, 42, 44, 57, 58 (avg. 28.79 - 29.78%);

1 Book upcoming: 1, 4, 6, 16, 24, 33, 47, 142 (avg. 34.13* - 14.86%);

0 Books upcoming: 8 (avg. 8.00 - 0.44%).

Yeah, it definitely looks like they don't go above 4 books upcoming very often, and definitely not for very long. 4 is apparently their soft maximum; unless something's coming out within a month they won't announce something new...and with the exception of the 90 day 3-Book (which was the time between Fully Operational being announced and Disciples of Harmony being released), nothing goes above 60 days, i.e. two months, except for 4-Book periods.

So my interpretation of this data is that FFG prefers to keep themselves hovering around four books upcoming as much as possible, and definitely doesn't like to go above that. Which is a great fit for the current state of things. In fact, I think that actually strengthens the argument for a February announcement - we'll most likely get at least one book released in February, possible two, and maybe even (dare I hope!) three, so a February announcement, likely followed up by a March and even probably an April announcement, would be needed to keep them balanced in the 3-4 Book range, which is apparently where they prefer to hang out.

Wow. I've been tracking the average number of outstanding books the entire time, and I never thought to lay it all out like this and see where that might lead me. Thanks so much, Robus! Your comment opened my eyes to an entirely new way to review this data, and I was able to pull some useful insights out of it!

* 18.71 if we take the stretch between the announcement of the Edge of the Empire Core Rulebook and Beyond the Rim out of the calculation.

Edited by Absol197

What are the odds Absol of something releasing and then something else being announced on the same day?

Edited by Shlambate
1 hour ago, Shlambate said:

What are the odds Absol of something releasing and then something else being announced on the same day?

Hmm...we've never had it happen before, although we've had a couple of near misses (1-3 days), so I'd think it's...possible? We could potentially get close, no doubt.

But I don't think things are aligned for that here. The upcoming releases are - best case - going to be releasing in the second half of February, so if they're announcing something in February, it'll probably be a little before the release.

Uh-huh-hugh! We're in the worst part of this whole production delay! Two or three more days until we know something! This is the worst part!

Back when it was just all In Development , at least we know we were still going to have a long wait ahead of ourselves. At this point, we could be looking at no more than 2.5 weeks before we finally get one of the new books in hand! Or it could be more like 3.5 to even 4.5 or more! And we'll know which direction it's heading by Thursday at the latest >_< !

GAAAAAAAHHHH!!!!1!! >_<

EDIT: Need ... new ... SOMETHING! Two more days... just two more at most...

Edited by Absol197

Okay, it's looking like we're not getting a production update today. So that means tomorrow is the big day...can we make a release of something by the 15th? Can I move a predicted release date CLOSER for the first time in over a year? Or will we still be floundering in the darkness of uncertainty? Either way, we get the answer tomorrow.

Dream scenario? FFG wants to get books out there but doesn't want to release two for the same lines on the same day. So on the 15th we get Fully Operational and Unlimited Power , and on the 22nd we get Cyphers and Masks and Dawn of Rebellion . Am I dreaming? Definitely. Impossible, you say? Probably. But still... a girl can dream, can't she?

Edited by Absol197

...Dammit.

Okay folks. Next week. Maybe. It's not like this isn't exactly what my current predictions were expecting. I was just hoping I was wrong...

4 minutes ago, Absol197 said:

...Dammit.

Okay folks. Next week. Maybe. It's not like this isn't exactly what my current predictions were expecting. I was just hoping I was wrong...

Today is not yet over....